Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2470 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #49,381
  • Jun 1, 2020 10:23am Jun 1, 2020 10:23am
Quoting lddd
I am confused, is it +5% or +5 Pips?
Both, 1%=1 pip

OMG talking of the Autobahn, check out this beauty, something to aim for?
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used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #49,382
  • Jun 1, 2020 11:23am Jun 1, 2020 11:23am
Quoting mrcreosote
this song here, first released in 1974! OMG it's still modern!! I always sing 'fun fun fun of der autobahn' even though the German is actually fahr'n auf der Autobahn, quite similar Long version https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e11h73WhqK4
It really is still great, isn't it!
  • #49,383
  • Jun 1, 2020 11:24am Jun 1, 2020 11:24am
Quoting lddd
I am confused, is it +5% or +5 Pips?
+5 chickens if you barter right.
  • #49,384
  • Jun 1, 2020 11:25am Jun 1, 2020 11:25am
Quoting mrcreosote
{quote} Both, 1%=1 pip OMG talking of the Autobahn, check out this beauty, something to aim for? {image}
Is it electric, or a real car?

Inserted Video
  • #49,385
  • Jun 1, 2020 11:48am Jun 1, 2020 11:48am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Is it electric, or a real car? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDw9PND4I3Y
Looking at those exhaust pipes i would say very real car....lol
Insanityoing same ting over expecting different results..Einstein
  • #49,386
  • Jun 1, 2020 11:55am Jun 1, 2020 11:55am
On a 5 Pips TP I am still not sure what SL I would use here if I don’t want to counter the trade by opening a second or even third position?

I mean this doesn’t give any room for failure right, with 1 Pip spread and commission SL would be 2 Pips away my entry, that’s almost a guarantee to get stopped out in seconds?
  • #49,387
  • Jun 1, 2020 12:00pm Jun 1, 2020 12:00pm
Quoting FXsniper111
{quote} Looking at those exhaust pipes i would say very real car....lol
Maybe that's where the magic electric elves who supply all that free electricity live?
  • #49,388
  • Jun 1, 2020 12:07pm Jun 1, 2020 12:07pm
Maybe someone of the experts here could do a video screen record of how to trade a M15 bar live at UK open.

From what i did read so far and looking at the charts provided by billy it feels hard to understand what exactly to do.

Same trouble I had with all strategies and systems looked at in the past, most are missing clear instructions and therefor leaving to much room for me to mess it up, no matter how simple it is in theory and by words written down.

As this method here doesn’t seems to require a lot of preparation of waiting time before setting an entry this might be possible for someone to make a quick record for a trade he/she will do the next days or so.

thanks in advance
  • #49,389
  • Jun 1, 2020 12:47pm Jun 1, 2020 12:47pm
Quoting lddd
I am confused, is it +5% or +5 Pips?
1 pip is 1%. 5 pips is 5%. 5% is currently £600
The 2 guys I trade for now use their own money for the margin bank roll. So the bank roll is now smaller.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,390
  • Jun 1, 2020 12:52pm Jun 1, 2020 12:52pm
Quoting lddd
Maybe someone of the experts here could do a video screen record of how to trade a M15 bar live at UK open. From what i did read so far and looking at the charts provided by billy it feels hard to understand what exactly to do. Same trouble I had with all strategies and systems looked at in the past, most are missing clear instructions and therefor leaving to much room for me to mess it up, no matter how simple it is in theory and by words written down. As this method here doesn’t seems to require a lot of preparation of waiting time before setting...
I sold 2 variations of my method for £60k plus PC and software. I am not going to broadcast a video
Study charts and don't over think. I trade off FD Stats. These and maths run the world. It's a fact
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,391
  • Jun 1, 2020 1:41pm Jun 1, 2020 1:41pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} I sold 2 variations of my method for £60k plus PC and software. I am not going to broadcast a video Study charts and don't over think. I trade off FD Stats. These and maths run the world. It's a fact
I am not looking for a trading robot nor asked for. It’s just hard to understand for me so far what exactly the method is and how its applied.

Looking at some past charts might help the more experienced traders but for me still most of the stuff is new.

So it feels a bit of having joined some experts discussion here without knowing what the heck is talked about.

I don’t want to get spoon fed either.

So I will open a GBP/USD chart at 08:00 UK time tomorrow morning, wait for the M15 bar to complete and set a pending order at the high or low as it is for 08:15 of that bar waiting to get executed for a 5 pips profit target while setting no stop loss and letting it run a 100 pips against me or what?

Btw the charts on post 1 are hard to read in that picture quality.
  • #49,392
  • Jun 1, 2020 2:00pm Jun 1, 2020 2:00pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} I am not looking for a trading robot nor asked for. It’s just hard to understand for me so far what exactly the method is and how its applied. Looking at some past charts might help the more experienced traders but for me still most of the stuff is new. So it feels a bit of having joined some experts discussion here without knowing what the heck is talked about. I don’t want to get spoon fed either. So I will open a GBP/USD chart at 08:00 UK time tomorrow morning, wait for the M15 bar to complete and set a pending order at the high or low...
NEVER let it run against you 100. Here are your options. 1). You can set the SL and accept the loss when/if it happens (don't hedge). 2. You can place another pending order at the opposite trigger instead of a SL. At this point, you have another 3 options. You can have the pending order be the same lot size as the original trade and just hold the bad trade in limbo, or, you can put in a trade for 2x lot size and try to get your losses back and profit, or, you can put in 2 trades at the same lot size as original and close one when you get your (5% as billy would say) and let the 2nd trade go for Daily Range (moderate range), or another way to approach that third options is to open 1 trade at double the lot size instead of 2 trades, and then just close half the position when you get your %'s and then let the rest go for Daily Range. The "secret sauce" in my opinion is using the other "bars triggers" as "clues" as to where price is going and if you have "stats" on your side. If you can read the thread and my notes and be smart enough to put the pieces to the puzzle alllllll together, then you'll be able to successfully trade billy's style.

Another way you can approach Billy's strategy is to counter trade sooner. Don't wait for the opposite trigger. You can start countering using the Wick Zone. (you'll have to look into that approach separately) or you can just "zoom out" a little bit and take a look at structure and see if you can "adjust" your SL to somewhere you feel comfortable and use that instead of the opposite trigger. Everyone who's been on this thread for a while knows that if you want to trade Billy's "true" style of trading you MUST have a big bank roll. That's a BIGGG part of his strategy. If you don't have to BR then I recommend finding something that works with normal SL or learn how to hedge sooner then the opposite trigger.
  • #49,393
  • Jun 1, 2020 2:10pm Jun 1, 2020 2:10pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} I am not looking for a trading robot nor asked for. It’s just hard to understand for me so far what exactly the method is and how its applied....
picture quality.
As far as I understand you place your pending as you described - above below the 15 min bar,
One side gets triggered, let's say long entry - doesn't reach the 5 pips - turns around against you.
Now you open a short. There are 2 options for the short location entry (again that is my understanding)
At the bottom of the 15 min bar - I think that is Billyt's general approach,
or to quote Lem "my counter would have begun at the upper level of the candle body"
Imo depends on the 15 min candle size as well.

Anyway you now are short/long = you stabilized your present loss.
Now you try to trade yourself out of that hole independent of that stabilized long/short position.

Traditionally you would open a trade at the break of the 15 bar and place a stop either in the middle of the 15 min bar or an MA to limit your risk.

That's how I see it but maybe I am missing something .

Happy Pfingsten
  • #49,394
  • Jun 1, 2020 2:12pm Jun 1, 2020 2:12pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} stoppit, your getting gooooooood.
Thanks Billy. Its only Rock n Roll but I like it LOL
  • #49,395
  • Jun 1, 2020 2:32pm Jun 1, 2020 2:32pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} the margin bank roll. So the bank roll is now smaller.
Quoting billytt
{quote} I trade off FD Stats. These and maths run the world. It's a fact
pardon this poor janitor, may I ask what is margin bank roll and FD?
  • #49,396
  • Jun 1, 2020 2:36pm Jun 1, 2020 2:36pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} I am not looking for a trading robot nor asked for. It’s just hard to understand for me so far what exactly the method is and how its applied. Looking at some past charts might help the more experienced traders but for me still most of the stuff is new. So it feels a bit of having joined some experts discussion here without knowing what the heck is talked about. I don’t want to get spoon fed either. So I will open a GBP/USD chart at 08:00 UK time tomorrow morning, wait for the M15 bar to complete and set a pending order at the high or low...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I think that is the 08:00 M15 candle, unless pointed wrong by Billy
  • #49,397
  • Jun 1, 2020 2:38pm Jun 1, 2020 2:38pm
Quoting bojack34
{quote} NEVER let it run against you 100. Here are your options. 1). You can set the SL and accept the loss when/if it happens (don't hedge). 2. You can place another pending order at the opposite trigger instead of a SL. At this point, you have another 3 options. You can have the pending order be the same lot size as the original trade and just hold the bad trade in limbo, or, you can put in a trade for 2x lot size and try to get your losses back and profit, or, you can put in 2 trades at the same lot size as original and close one when you get...
Thank you. Ok. But I got it right that for the entry I would simply place a buy and sell at the high/low of the 8:00 bar aiming for a 5 Pips/5% fixed TP, if succeed, no more trade for the day, if no succeed take the loss (of what ever that would be) and do the same for the next days 8:00 bar and so on?

Regrading the stop loss or hedge well I don’t know but a hedge could also theoretical retrace for thousands of pips for maybe monthes or years, who knows so you would be kept in a huge floating loss for as little as a 5 pips compensate.

And having a huge bank roll or not. You are not forced to trade 1 lot at small leverage. So you can theoretically do the same thing/style with a $1000 account opening a 0.01 position as you would do with no small leverage and a huge bank roll.

Gains for sure would be smaller too.

So with a fixed SL I guess this kind of entries aiming for 5 pips here most likely would not generate positive results. So it’s more the recovery trade thing what makes it work here.
  • #49,398
  • Jun 1, 2020 3:29pm Jun 1, 2020 3:29pm
Quoting bojack34
{quote} NEVER let it run against you 100. Here are your options. 1). You can set the SL and accept the loss when/if it happens (don't hedge). 2. You can place another pending order at the opposite trigger instead of a SL. At this point, you have another 3 options. You can have the pending order be the same lot size as the original trade and just hold the bad trade in limbo, or, you can put in a trade for 2x lot size and try to get your losses back and profit, or, you can put in 2 trades at the same lot size as original and close one when you get...
You've got it bud.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,399
  • Jun 1, 2020 3:36pm Jun 1, 2020 3:36pm
Quoting failinforex
{quote} {quote} pardon this poor janitor, may I ask what is margin bank roll and FD?
Hi. FD = Frequency Distribution, Google it. Plz.
Margin, in UK we need or did need £440 to trade a £1 per pip trade. Put a couple of zeros on and you need a massive bank roll to cover the trade.
So originally I used my money as margin bank ( and yes it is relatively safe) once they had accumulated profits, I then use their money for the margin.
Hope it makes sense.
7/8years ago it was a lot easier to trade. Different rules.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,400
  • Jun 1, 2020 3:38pm Jun 1, 2020 3:38pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thank you. Ok. But I got it right that for the entry I would simply place a buy and sell at the high/low of the 8:00 bar aiming for a 5 Pips/5% fixed TP, if succeed, no more trade for the day, if no succeed take the loss (of what ever that would be) and do the same for the next days 8:00 bar and so on? Regrading the stop loss or hedge well I don’t know but a hedge could also theoretical retrace for thousands of pips for maybe monthes or years, who knows so you would be kept in a huge floating loss for as little as a 5 pips compensate. And...
I know there is a certain language issue here and that's fair enough but you are also bizarrely both over and under thinking it at the same time.

I'm not going to pull it all apart, it's mid evening here and stuff to do and places to be and all that but a couple of main points are that, I don't know where you get the idea that a hedge would be kept growing for thousands of pips and a huge floating loss. Perhaps you are misunderstanding fundamentally what a hedge (in his case, actually a nedge, as it is two trades on the same currency) actually is.

How's this:

Right we have a 15 min bar that is 15 pips in total top-to-bottom, high-to-low, head-to-butt...
First break is Long.
It goes +3 and turns.
It goes all the way out the backside (sorry, everybody here must have seen that one coming ).
Soooooooooooooo....
The trade is now, as it crosses the Low, down -15 pips (minus fifteen).
As it crosses the Low a Short is opened.
That running loss is now locked in.
At Minus 15.
For ever.
Price can go off and dig a hole to China to look at Koi Carp all day and that floating loss will stay at Minus 15 pips.

Yes? No? The answer is ''yes'', by the way.

Right so that's that. On to the next trigger and cover that floater. Whatever way you want to do it. Plenty of good suggestions listed by my friend above.

In all the time it has taken me to write those last 50 words, guess what? The floating loss is still...Minus 15 pips.

Except...well there is a wild card in play.

Even without trying to double-dip that Short, or whatever, what happens to the Lock-In Short? It keeps getting bigger. Yes, it is still followed down by the original Long but at some point, you're going to figure out that, hey, we look like we're going Short all day/the next hour/ four hours, whatever.

Well, why are you hanging onto that original Long? Take it out the back and shoot it in the head. Bury it in the yard and plant flowers on its grave.

You would be looking for the inevitable pull back against your now runaway Short - no move goes on in a straight line in trading - and that gives you an even better chance at cutting it off.

So then...

How about adding a second Short now? Sound good? Well, if you're confident enough about cutting your Long, then why wouldn't you add to your trade now running in your favour? If you are unsure, then just sit on your hands. Wait till tomorrow's trade.

Oh and all of that doesn't even take into account that in actual fact, your next trigger would or could - depending on your style - have been the Short break you set your counter on...but that's a story for another day and I really don't want your head to explode.

Those last two questions:

Because of the ESMA regs in the UK via the EU and the even harsher restrictions on US traders, where in the past you could easily have run ten trades open at the same time of good size, now you are lucky to make three before the heavy fist comes down.

Yes, you can cut lot size and run a small account but we are traders here who trade for a living. Full time. Those who don't, are wanting to. Piddling around at 10p stakes is not really what goes on here. We have mortgages to pay and people and cats to care for and ex-wives to fend off. That is why we talk of pips/percents and not cash amounts and account sizes.

One of the techniques we use here is to run multiple accounts but move the money around as/if needed at any given time. A bank roll away from the broker means that you can immediately feed any account to cover the ability to add the amount of open trades you may need. That cash injection can then be withdrawn and things re-balanced.

This isn't a teaching thread as such - though we are willing to teach those who wish to learn but honestly, don't try and teach your granny how to suck eggs. We've all been in this game a very long time and there's a reason we've made a success of it.

Finally, FD is Frequency Distribution. As in Frequency Distribution Statistics. Let Google be your friend.

Oh and that trade is still only minus 15.
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