Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2467 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #49,321
  • May 31, 2020 2:39pm May 31, 2020 2:39pm
Quoting billytt
{quote}{quote} I had stats for 20 years, i have stats of stats. Using a stop can be used but it is then a different game. Brokers i cannot comment on, mainly because i do not know. You need to start watching charts, look at breaks, see if a break carries on, or retraces What happens if it retraces to Fail????? Plan B, the daily range. It is simple method but you need to know the method. Just keep watching.studying charts.
Thanks for the feedback.
  • #49,322
  • May 31, 2020 2:47pm May 31, 2020 2:47pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Bo based the "best" stats on a minimum range of 20 pips. What I was asking was isn't 20 pips a pretty big range for the 15 min bar?
I agree that 20 is a big range. That was kind of what made me start taking these stats. I have always used a range of between 10-25ish. I've adjusted here and there but never went under 10 or over 25.....but what I always noticed is the bigger ranges also hit their TP's and "then some". I'm not risking anymore %'s per trade then I was before i'm just using a bigger range. That is why I used 10 pip TP instead of 5 pip TP. The RR is actually a little better......remember i'm using a SL of opposite trigger (not heding). I totally "get it", these ranges are BIG....but that was the point of it. I wanted to see the stats on it. I like what I see....enough to forward test it on the EA for a while and see what happens.
  • #49,323
  • May 31, 2020 2:51pm May 31, 2020 2:51pm
Quoting Nikl
Hi guys new to the thread here myself (followed turnip over from Laura’s thread) I’m only a couple of hundred pages in so far but looking forward to catching up. Many thanks Bojak for your notes. Gives me a head start! cheers Nick
Hi N, hello and welcome.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,324
  • May 31, 2020 2:52pm May 31, 2020 2:52pm
Quoting bojack34
{quote} I agree that 20 is a big range. That was kind of what made me start taking these stats. I have always used a range of between 10-25ish. I've adjusted here and there but never went under 10 or over 25.....but what I always noticed is the bigger ranges also hit their TP's and "then some". I'm not risking anymore %'s per trade then I was before i'm just using a bigger range. That is why I used 10 pip TP instead of 5 pip TP. The RR is actually a little better......remember i'm using a SL of opposite trigger (not heding). I totally "get it",...
If we go back in time to FXH and SSBO he always went with with a max of 20. Sure it's a different system but I sort of agree with it for the Billy Bar.

Never mind that - I just read that the guys docked earlier at the space station. Well done USA.
  • #49,325
  • May 31, 2020 3:04pm May 31, 2020 3:04pm
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  • #49,326
  • May 31, 2020 3:06pm May 31, 2020 3:06pm
Quoting bojack34
Here's everything I came up with all in one post........... 08-15 GU using a Minimum Range of 20 and a Maximum Range of 40 and a TP of 10 pips. ( No Trade when price opens less than 1 pip from a trigger) 8/26/19 - 5/31/20 20 - 25 Range...... 20 TP's 7 SL's Average Pips traveled after trigger 48.6 25.1 - 30 Range...... 11 TP's 5 SL's Average Pips traveled after trigger 41.0 30.1 - 35 Range...... 3 TP's 1 SL's Average Pips traveled after trigger 41.7 35.1 - 40 Range...... 3 TP's 0 SL's Average Pips traveled after trigger 48.3 Here's a more in depth...
Since it appeared that all the ranges traveled over 40 pips after trigger I decided to forward test a 30 pip TP. This will give me a better than 1:1 RR on most of the trades and somewhere around 1:1 on the rest. We'll see how the forward testing goes. One of the other thoughts behind the bigger ranges was the "momentum" those bigger candles were producing. I wanted to see if it affected the trades. I totally "get it" thought, smaller ranges and the "coiling" effect that SSBO always referred to is much better for the BO itself. I guess my thinking of this was waiting for a breakout candle or momentum candle to happen (hence the bigger candles) and then try to ride the wave for 30 pips. Who knows, it could be a huge failure. We'll see.
  • #49,327
  • May 31, 2020 3:35pm May 31, 2020 3:35pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Bo based the "best" stats on a minimum range of 20 pips. What I was asking was isn't 20 pips a pretty big range for the 15 min bar?
duh!!! i looked at it the wrong way.
when i look at break ranges, i look for the minimum range.
example pips over 5 days,, 20 , 7 ,6, 10 ,30 , fail, Lets say it is same over 12 months.
the Frequency Distributions stats state 6 is the ideal number to trade for.
Excluding the Fail, all the other ranges made 6 or more.

Once the range starts getting bigger , other bars come into play (or already have), as in 00-00 4 hour , or 04-00 4 hr as example.

edit, i never fall for the risk reward trick.
I try to stay away from anything related to what we are told to do, But in theory it does make sense. lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,328
  • May 31, 2020 3:42pm May 31, 2020 3:42pm
Quoting bojack34
{quote} Since it appeared that all the ranges traveled over 40 pips after trigger I decided to forward test a 30 pip TP. This will give me a better than 1:1 RR on most of the trades and somewhere around 1:1 on the rest. We'll see how the forward testing goes. One of the other thoughts behind the bigger ranges was the "momentum" those bigger candles were producing. I wanted to see if it affected the trades. I totally "get it" thought, smaller ranges and the "coiling" effect that SSBO always referred to is much better for the BO itself. I guess my...
Obviously you are making the break your own, and congrats .
Good stat collating, compare your 08-00 break with other bars????? Break and range versus next break and range off a different time bar.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,329
  • May 31, 2020 4:11pm May 31, 2020 4:11pm
Quoting bojack34
{quote} I agree that 20 is a big range. That was kind of what made me start taking these stats. I have always used a range of between 10-25ish. I've adjusted here and there but never went under 10 or over 25.....but what I always noticed is the bigger ranges also hit their TP's and "then some". I'm not risking anymore %'s per trade then I was before i'm just using a bigger range. That is why I used 10 pip TP instead of 5 pip TP. The RR is actually a little better......remember i'm using a SL of opposite trigger (not heding). I totally "get it",...
Kl kl. It's interesting stuff and no doubt the fact that you are actively wanting to avoid using counters will colour the thinking process.

I look forward to seeing your final analysis.
  • #49,330
  • May 31, 2020 4:16pm May 31, 2020 4:16pm
For those of us here who like real music - which is, of course, all of us...

If you haven't done so already, track down the new documentary Laurel County. It is absolutely brilliant. Made by the same team who did The History of The Eagles.

Add this to my collection!

That gives this, The Eagles one, Tom Petty's and Fleetwood Mac's and what a brilliant collection it is.

If only they would get around to finishing Dust Radio on Chris Whitley and it would be just about complete.
  • #49,331
  • May 31, 2020 4:22pm May 31, 2020 4:22pm
Hi Lem. You spoke of 20 range being a bit high.
I will always manually adjust my range to 15 if below 15. Reason being whip, I will trade a range with 25/28, points but I am also looking at the bigger picture plus I am safe with the counter.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,332
  • May 31, 2020 10:47pm May 31, 2020 10:47pm
Got my 5 on the 000 4hr now waiting for the 8am 15 min. Also traded last weeks hi for 5 pips g/u
  • #49,333
  • Jun 1, 2020 1:03am Jun 1, 2020 1:03am
Quoting sheppy
Got my 5 on the 000 4hr now waiting for the 8am 15 min. Also traded last weeks hi for 5 pips g/u
nice one bud.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,334
  • Jun 1, 2020 1:05am Jun 1, 2020 1:05am
Hi all, Hope everyone is well.

E/U. 00-00 high has broken but I have left it.
Cable, the range of 74 is too big , nothing has happened yet but I am leaving it.
BUT,,,,,, I am trading off a 2 hour bar , the 04-00 to 06-00 area, Low broke and I am short.
That will give me something to play with.
Trade well All.
t 07-05
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,335
  • Jun 1, 2020 1:15am Jun 1, 2020 1:15am
Quoting sheppy
Got my 5 on the 000 4hr now waiting for the 8am 15 min. Also traded last weeks hi for 5 pips g/u
Hi sheppy
How come? Is that GU? The 0-4am bar hasn't broken yet....
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #49,336
  • Jun 1, 2020 1:18am Jun 1, 2020 1:18am
Quoting billytt
Hi all, Hope everyone is well. E/U. 00-00 high has broken but I have left it. Cable, the range of 74 is too big , nothing has happened yet but I am leaving it. BUT,,,,,, I am trading off a 2 hour bar , the 04-00 to 06-00 area, Low broke and I am short. That will give me something to play with. Trade well All. t 07-05
At what point do you counter Billy? And/or hedge?
Play this loud, need to find my shangri-la!
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used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #49,337
  • Jun 1, 2020 2:16am Jun 1, 2020 2:16am
ok the 8am 15min bar.....low 1.2382 high 1.2408
Get ready......
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #49,338
  • Jun 1, 2020 2:30am Jun 1, 2020 2:30am
OK we had a break high......but I didn't take it cos the bucket shop bastards keep pissing about with the spread....going between 0.9 and 1.5......this is supposed to be a decent UK broker too....methinks the one that most folk on here use
And now it's dropping back.....
I think I prefer the way the DAX moves....it appears to be more 'technical' to my amateur eyes
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #49,339
  • Jun 1, 2020 2:33am Jun 1, 2020 2:33am
Thanks Billy I am long off the 0800 15 min
currently in drawdown
  • #49,340
  • Jun 1, 2020 2:42am Jun 1, 2020 2:42am
OK it bounced off the BRN 2400.........
@sheppy you went long at 2409?
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
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