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Real or Algo

  • #401
  • May 24, 2020 3:26am May 24, 2020 3:26am
Have come to the conclusion that if Samuel L Jackson was a trader, Supply and demand (S and D) would be renamed.....

S and M......

No, I know what you're thinking but S and M stands for (sh1t motherf^c er) trade has gone the wrong way......again!!


(Will remove if fruity prose upsets anyone)...
  • #402
  • May 24, 2020 7:16pm May 24, 2020 7:16pm
GJ opened today with a small gap, which was soon closed with a nice run up. But looking from a bigger perspective, is it prepping something, I wonder?!

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  • #403
  • May 24, 2020 7:27pm May 24, 2020 7:27pm
Quoting phi1ipp
GJ opened today with a small gap, which was soon closed with a nice run up. But looking from a bigger perspective, is it prepping something, I wonder?! {image}
Yep, initial target for the week, Friday's stops.
  • #404
  • May 25, 2020 10:27pm May 25, 2020 10:27pm
I wanna to have the status of profitfarmer hence I 'll devout my time to study 2407.
  • #405
  • May 25, 2020 10:42pm May 25, 2020 10:42pm
Quoting failinforex
I wanna to have the status of profitfarmer hence I 'll devout my time to study 2407.
Sounds like a plan.
  • #406
  • May 26, 2020 10:12am May 26, 2020 10:12am
Interesting thread.

Just my 2 cents to simplify the 'algo to the pip' thing:

What if the levels where price reverses (usually creating a LL/HH) are only because they are price levels with the most liquidity and if you trade full lots or even yards you just need that to fill your orders? It looks then like it would be almost algo to the pip trading, but that is some dumb money (not retail! hedge fund money, smaller bank money, etc) placing stops there or stop limit orders and the bigger boys/algos know it, see it on their charts and can calculate how much it would cost them to drive the price down and unless they find some hidden liquidity (iceberg orders) they just run the price to the level of increased liquidity, grab that liquidity and push the price in their direction for much less than we would think, again searching for liqudity to offload those large orders.

Market makers might work the price too to balance their sheets if there are many orders in one direction.

It is said that during London/NYC overlap you need 30-50M to move eurusd 1 pip. How many big moves happen during this window? Not that many.
  • #407
  • May 29, 2020 2:57am May 29, 2020 2:57am
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  • #408
  • May 29, 2020 7:07am May 29, 2020 7:07am
i would suggest to everyone to read George's post - if you haven't already done so.
Price is completely manipulated - it only does too things takes out the lows and highs of the days before - it may do it straight away or take a week to do it.
  • #409
  • May 30, 2020 4:52am May 30, 2020 4:52am
Hi all

Just a reminder that Georges TMA, MA’s etc are just a small part of the jigsaw. TMA’s alone, as a stand alone indicator, like all indicators, will not produce a guaranteed reversal.
Other factors as outlined in Georges thread must be analysed first, before trading from the TMA.
In a recent post George highlighted the filters he uses before considering a trade. At the end of that list or thought process, price in pressure zone!
Always check how close an unbroken target is when considering taking a trade. Will price move through the TMA to the next unbroken level, gap etc ...If it did, check the average daily range, and current range! Big clue..

London 60 in the post above says price hunts down previous high/lows.
Quite correct. I would also add non interlocked bars and price gaps. Price will close them.
Check other timeframes for targets!!!
That is all it has to do to make money for the chinless wonders who control the Algo/market signal.
  • #410
  • Edited 9:56am May 30, 2020 8:33am | Edited 9:56am
Quoting moodybot
Hi all Just a reminder that Georges TMA, MA’s etc are just a small part of the jigsaw. TMA’s alone, as a stand alone indicator, like all indicators, will not produce a guaranteed reversal. Other factors as outlined in Georges thread must be analysed first, before trading from the TMA. In a recent post George highlighted the filters he uses before considering a trade. At the end of that list or thought process, price in pressure zone! Always check how close an unbroken target is when considering taking a trade. Will price move through the TMA to...
Hi Moodybot

There is a few other clues we can use in determining if price will react at the next target and reverse.
I believe we need to break down the target and describe what it actually is, a dense pool of PASSIVE limit orders that were placed in an area by uniformed traders.
They were groomed and conditioned to place their orders here due to FEAR.
FEAR they will miss out on making money or FEAR they will get their stop loss hit.

Now the clue in whether the market will react as we hope and reverse at a target as we hope is in front of our eyes. I don't see the amount of ADR a pair has moved has much ability to help a trader come to an educated guess the market will reverse. Price on any pair can reverse on 40 ADR, 80 ADR or 150 ADR.

The clue is all in the understanding on how dense the market orders are when they are attacking a Target. If the Market orders are less dense than the limit order pool, price will reverse towards thin liquidity as we hope. If the market orders are far more dense than the pool of limit orders, price will break out and seek the next target.

So if we actually look at the grinds on M1 and stop wasting our time read forums ( yes, my problem too), you just may notice there is FOUR forms of grinds.
A steep and Compact grind that is narrow has very intense market orders stacked up and will be destroy the target ahead.
Do not trade reverses on grind with "AGGRESSIVE A GRINDS" unless we see the M1 market fracturing, forming micro gaps within large wide ranging candles.

Look at three possible targets on Friday with GBPJPY, each could have reversed.
If we were paying attention, we should have notice this grind was "Type A Aggressive" - its contains dense market orders and will destroy early Targets.

That just leaves three other Grind shapes to work out - traders need do the work for themselves.

Cheers Rick
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #411
  • May 30, 2020 11:01am May 30, 2020 11:01am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Look at three possible targets on Friday with GBPJPY, each could have reversed. If we were paying attention, we should have notice this grind was "Type A Aggressive" - its contains dense market orders and will destroy early Targets. That just leaves three other Grind shapes to work out - traders need do the work for themselves. Cheers Rick {image} {image}
On the target 3 if you placed the trade on the target you would get from 13 to 15 pips drawdown, and you would make 6, 5 pips, and there where the risk that price would continue which it did a few moments later.
Dont take it personally but to me the guy trading on target 3 would be the biggest fool of them all, because he saw the 1 and 2 target traders get fucked, and still traded and he would also had a better confirmation that it was a steep move with little pullbacks.
  • #412
  • May 30, 2020 4:05pm May 30, 2020 4:05pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Moodybot There is a few other clues we can use in determining if price will react at the next target and reverse. I believe we need to break down the target and describe what it actually is, a dense pool of PASSIVE limit orders that were placed in an area by uniformed traders. They were groomed and conditioned to place their orders here due to FEAR. FEAR they will miss out on making money or FEAR they will get their stop loss hit. Now the clue in whether the market will react as we hope and reverse at a target as we hope is in front of...

Excellent post as always Rick. I really should have a chat with you sometime...

As you know I look to trade reversals, and your example is exactly the reason why I wait after the reversal for the Algo to then head through a 'particular reversal criteria' before looking to take a trade.
I use the ADR to determine the probability of whether price may continue on or may stop, but as you say, they will move price to where they require it.
I find that mainstream voodoo cannot predict what will happen next, your analysis I know is on a different level.
George works on probabilities proven from 1000's hours of study, like yourself, and is rarely if ever wrong, if he is, his backup plan is faultless.
Since looking for targets, herd mentality etc I can say that my own manual trading has improved dramatically, but there is always room for improvement.
Looks like I'll have to have open up a 1 min chart...and that pains me...not my favourite

Andy
  • #413
  • Edited 5:07pm May 30, 2020 4:51pm | Edited 5:07pm
Quoting STrading
{quote} On the target 3 if you placed the trade on the target you would get from 13 to 15 pips drawdown, and you would make 6, 5 pips, and there where the risk that price would continue which it did a few moments later. Dont take it personally but to me the guy trading on target 3 would be the biggest fool of them all, because he saw the 1 and 2 target traders get fucked, and still traded and he would also had a better confirmation that it was a steep move with little pullbacks.
This of course is after the event.
But there are identical setups shown earlier on within this thread, and shown before the event.
Rick trades intraday on 1 min, and considers Daily High/Lows, I prefer unbroken weekly targets, for me there was no setup until price had broken through Target 3, but why did they push price to 133.193?
There is, as Rick says, a reason why they target certain areas. This one is a classic.
The highlighted herd mentality is an absolute text book short trap at resistance, then a long resistance breakout trap. Just that there are not too many text books around showing it!
This move kills two birds with one stone and happens on all time frames all pairs. The move is just a continual process.
Not only has it wiped out Longs and Shorts, created fear in both camps, it has already started the process of a fresh herd mentality.
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  • #414
  • May 30, 2020 5:24pm May 30, 2020 5:24pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} This of course is after the event. But there are identical setups shown earlier on within this thread, and shown before the event. Rick trades intraday on 1 min, and considers Daily High/Lows, I prefer unbroken weekly targets, for me there was no setup until price had broken through Target 3, but why did they push price to 133.193? There is, as Rick says, a reason why they target certain areas. This one is a classic. The highlighted herd mentality is an absolute text book short trap at resistance, then a long resistance breakout trap. Just...
And what did you do? Did you sell above the target 3. Did you close the trade already, are you going to hold.
  • #415
  • May 30, 2020 5:50pm May 30, 2020 5:50pm
Quoting STrading
{quote} And what did you do? Did you sell above the target 3. Did you close the trade already, are you going to hold.
No entry for me as yet.
The moment price passed Target 3 then I am looking to trade the reversal, or if you subscribe to trend theory, then I am looking to trade the new trend.
Rick has a handle on where price will go to, I'm not so confident so I look for the obvious and for me, that was an unbroken weekly target rather than daily.
Once broken, game on...but reversal, never breakout.
I use Georges target and herd mentality theory for every entry but I prefer H1 so I have a different entry criteria to either George or Rick. This better suits my availability to be at the PC and means I don't have to sit through Asia or wait for London at 5pm.
My entry would usually be lower than the broken weekly high target but depends on whether it continued to grind up.
If it did, then I'm going to get in at a better position once the retracement/new trend starts.

If price drops and there is no guarantee that it will, then at some point most likely Monday evening/Tuesday morning Aus time GJ will setup for me.
If it doesn't, plenty of other pairs to watch.
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  • #416
  • May 30, 2020 6:25pm May 30, 2020 6:25pm
Had a quick look, started at AUDCAD and stopped at AUDJPY....

One i'll keep an eye on, and I'm sure there are plenty more!
If price breaks 72.953 then I'm getting interested.
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  • #417
  • May 30, 2020 6:58pm May 30, 2020 6:58pm
Quoting STrading
{quote} On the target 3 if you placed the trade on the target you would get from 13 to 15 pips drawdown, and you would make 6, 5 pips, and there where the risk that price would continue which it did a few moments later. Dont take it personally but to me the guy trading on target 3 would be the biggest fool of them all, because he saw the 1 and 2 target traders get fucked, and still traded and he would also had a better confirmation that it was a steep move with little pullbacks.
Hi STrading

On the information I provide on that chart, you are 100% correct on trade 3 being a bad trade. The aggressive market orders were still too dense and the expansion of those three candles was only moderate.
What I didn't explain however is the parameter characteristics' of those Grind A moves. These Grinds work much like a Bearish compression channel where price is trapped within a tight upward range. When price moves above the top channel line by ANY pips, the chance of a pull back is very high. About 85%
Here is why I took a trade there but I wasn't looking for a full reversal, just 3-8 pips. I would have taken the second trade as well but I had stopped trading by then.

By importance

1.. Breakout of Type A channel
2. Breakout over a Target
3.. It hit the boundary the Algo uses to limit price expansion.

Number 3 is unbreakable outside Red News.

Using line charts helps us find the intend of the Algo -
Still, do not forget we have three other Types of Grinds we can trade with.

Cheers Rick
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #418
  • May 30, 2020 7:39pm May 30, 2020 7:39pm
The last few posts by moody and rick is the true spirit of helping those who had badly beaten by the manipulator. really appreciate from the bottom of my heart.
  • #419
  • May 30, 2020 8:16pm May 30, 2020 8:16pm
Quoting moodybot
Had a quick look, started at AUDCAD and stopped at AUDJPY.... One i'll keep an eye on, and I'm sure there are plenty more! If price breaks 72.953 then I'm getting interested. {image}
Hi Moodybot

That AUDJPY is one of my pairs I trade, it trades really well during the Asia session of course.
I just don't believe we should be trading on any other time frame other than M1 because the Algo limits price around order flow ONLY.
Here is an example of the exact spots where the Algo limited price on Friday, as you can see its all within a couple of pips.

The settings are wrong here because I choose to keep them to myself.
I do prefer to wait for Targets and play it safe unless I am in that AGGRESSIVE MOOD

The Algo limiting switches were those boxes - they are my specs. I see the last Buy had a 5 pip drawdown, the rest were close to prefect - 7 out of 7
Its important to know i use a equation to find my switch points after breaking down Georges TMA's settings last year to find the secret sauce. Without using Georges reference points, I wouldn't have worked it out.

Do I trade with an unfair advantage?
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #420
  • May 30, 2020 8:33pm May 30, 2020 8:33pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Excellent post as always Rick. I really should have a chat with you sometime... As you know I look to trade reversals, and your example is exactly the reason why I wait after the reversal for the Algo to then head through a 'particular reversal criteria' before looking to take a trade. I use the ADR to determine the probability of whether price may continue on or may stop, but as you say, they will move price to where they require it. I find that mainstream voodoo cannot predict what will happen next, your analysis I know is on a different...

A very good morning to all ....
A good morning to you Andy ,,,

I always see my name mentioned and my theories ,,,so ,,,
I feel it is ONLY fit and courteous enough of me to add to the subject at hand here ,,,
Out of respect to all and especially you Andy ,,,
One of my great trading friends ,,, and ,, more importantly ,,,
One of MY INNER CIRCLE Members ) ,,
An amazing group of Human Beings I surround myself with ,,, and ,,
I value deeply in my heart ! ! !

It is very nice to see activity and many opinions on the table here this morning ,,, and
With some great pointers ,,,,
It Fascinates me reading through the thoughts ,, and mindset process of all the wonderful members here ,,,

You summed it up very well Andy ! ! !
NO ONE has any clue as to the depth of the FILTERS I apply to each setup ,,,
There are many factors that come into play ,,, WHICH ARE NOT LISTED on the filters list ,,, ( it is simply NOT my job to ist here and think of everything for everyone ) ! ! !

As you have always said it Andy ,, and I WILL SAY IT AGAIN ,,,,
I HAVE NOT CHANGED MY THOUGHTS AND THEORIES ABOUT ANYTHING ! ! ! !

VERY SIMPLE BASIC CHARTS ,,,
3 MOVING AVERAGES ,,,
A SET OF TMA'S AT WORK ,, ON EVERY TIME FRAME ,,,
THAT IS THAT IS REQUIRED ! ! ! !

This is what I would like to say ,,, IF I may ,,,,
The BIGGEST mistake ,,, struggling traders are making is this,,
THEY ARE NOT LOOKING AT THE MARKET IN ITS FULL FRACTAL NATURE ,,, and ,,
SEEING IT ,,, IN ITS FULL BEAUTY ! ! ! !

I have attached some charts for the benefit of all ,,,,
They are ,,,,
THEY ARE A TRANSLATION OF THE EYES I LOOK AT THE MARKET WITH ,,,
A BREAKDOWN OF THE PSYCHOLOGY BREAKDOWN ,, THAT I HAVE MASTERED ! ! ! !

Sadly ,,, it is something EXTREMELY HARD to try to teach it to anyone ,,,,
As each trader will have to invest the ,, TIME ,,,,,
To BUILD THE EXPERIENCE REQUIRED ,, to get to this depth and level ,,, AND ,,
I DO SAY THIS ,,,, with the highest level of HUMBLED INTENTIONS ! ! ! !

15 MINUTE CHART ,,,
1 HOUR CHART ,,,
4 HOUR CHART ,,,,
ARE ATTACHED ,,,,
And of course last and NOT least ,,,
MY 1 MINUTE CHART ,,,, ( NOT POSTED FOR OBVIOUS REASONS ,, apologies ) ! ! !

mamy questions on them for my fellow traders ,, to help stimulate the mind process required ! ! !

Hope this helps many ,,

Cheers
George
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LOVE YOUR GAME WITH A PASSION ,,,,, WORK WITH A VISION ! ! ! ! !
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