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COT: The precious data ignored

  • #341
  • May 24, 2020 7:22am May 24, 2020 7:22am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} interesting. getting any exposure ? if you will what are you trying to get, just on futures or ?
I'm about to get long here when i find an entry, then it could bring a 15/20% upside
On a daily basis its forming an hidden bearish divergence + classic bearish divergence something i don't like to see when i want to buy

Ideally a move below 300 dollars to start the loading season

Or if scared of being exposed to only one grain asset, there could be a short wheat/long corn in play as well
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #342
  • May 24, 2020 9:21am May 24, 2020 9:21am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I'm about to get long here when i find an entry, then it could bring a 15/20% upside On a daily basis its forming an hidden bearish divergence + classic bearish divergence something i don't like to see when i want to buy Ideally a move below 300 dollars to start the loading season Or if scared of being exposed to only one grain asset, there could be a short wheat/long corn in play as well
i usually don't like to hedge on extreme. so just like on oil crash some buying august and shorting jully. so when you get so extreme either i buy or i'll wait to see it going my direction before going in. but hedging here not sure it makes sense and i am a fan of hedging.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #343
  • May 24, 2020 10:07am May 24, 2020 10:07am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} i usually don't like to hedge on extreme. so just like on oil crash some buying august and shorting jully. so when you get so extreme either i buy or i'll wait to see it going my direction before going in. but hedging here not sure it makes sense and i am a fan of hedging.
No mate, its not buying/selling contracts from different horizon.
Compared to oil, it would be like selling crude/buying brent, or buying gas/selling crude.
its a spread strategy.

i used it a few weeks before to buy corn/sell wheat. Worked out good but not as good as expected. I may do it again as spread is widening

and it worked nicely for the soft commo
buying sugar/selling coffee
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #344
  • May 26, 2020 3:51am May 26, 2020 3:51am
Crude wti : Are longs going in too much ?

Attached Image


When you look at it, money managers are going in way too strong, its never a smart idea to buy when MM is that long.
You don't want to hold their bag full of longs when price fall
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #345
  • May 28, 2020 2:00pm May 28, 2020 2:00pm
GBPUSD prop system hourly

Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #346
  • May 29, 2020 3:35pm May 29, 2020 3:35pm
S&P 500
dumb retail money short
big smart money still long

V shape another bull next week ?
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #347
  • May 30, 2020 3:49am May 30, 2020 3:49am
S&P 500 weekly update

A few charts to see the current situation of the market participants

Attached Image

Dealers are still net longs for the first time in years, hence you see the indices rising nicely. But isn't it a bit late to be net long that high ?

Attached Image

Assets managers are still sleeping, they don't even buy this rise. How odd is it, isn't it ? Do they know something ?

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Money managers are going shorts all in. At this point, if you are still long, i would advise to tighten the stops, or clear some positions.
It doesn't mean it can't rise more

Attached Image

Vix short dealers are slowly decreasing their net shorts. Its still high though

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Vix short assets managers are finally increasing their net shorts. It still very low to see a big dump of stocks, but it worth taking a look at

When you look at the positions of the market participants, you can see something is very odd
1- Dealers are increasing their net longs as we go up
2 - Assets managers are not buying the upmove
3 - Money managers are very shorts

None of the markets participants agree with each other. If i have to sum it up, it would be the big market participants are shorts
So watch out

On a side note : Put/call ratio is going crazy.
"Put/Call Ratio 10dma in the top 3% most overbought days in 20 years" (quote from @MacroCharts on twitter)
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #348
  • May 30, 2020 3:51am May 30, 2020 3:51am
Quoting DMA Trader
S&P 500 dumb retail money short big smart money still long V shape another bull next week ?
You think so ?
Check what i wrote above, i find the equity market very annoying. Assets managers are not buying this rise, its weird

I want to buy cheap stocks, i need a dump
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #349
  • May 30, 2020 4:32am May 30, 2020 4:32am
I got 2 questions for anyone who feels like responding to it

1 - What's the most accurate ? ICE crude oil or NYMEX crude oil when you trade using COT report

2 - Lets say Commodities such as Coffee, Sugar, Soybean (and others) are going down big time, is it compatible with Dollar losing a lot of its value?
From what i can see those commodities can head down big time, and from what i read people are seeing a big fall in the dollar. Big trouble for the producers ahead ? Impossible ? or Dollar will have to rise to prevent producers from going broke ?


EDIT : I have removed restrictions so anyone can reply
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #350
  • May 30, 2020 7:32am May 30, 2020 7:32am
Euro linked to copper ?

This chart below shows the price of the euro compared to the copper producers
EURUSD is correlated to Copper at 80% (on a weekly basis since 2012 until today). Its a good correlation

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: copper.PNG Size: 45 KB

Whenever copper producers were massively short hedged, it impacted the eurusd (or more likely the dollar).
Dollar is the based currency for all commodities, hence seeing the world commodities going down can't bring the dollar down

Whenever producers are increasing their net shorts, its NOT the time to sell the dollar (or buy eurusd).
Whenever producers are decreasing their net shorts, its a good idea to decrease your short dollar bets

Lately, producers are increasing their net shorts, hence i can't suggest to buy eurusd (sell dollar)
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #351
  • Edited 1:39pm May 30, 2020 1:15pm | Edited 1:39pm
Another round of bad weeks for Platinum ?

Attached Image

Producers are again short hedged a lot...new record. Buying long term when you see such selling is not what you should have in mind

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Money managers are increasing their net longs again, just don't hold their bag once they start unloading

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Look at the swap dealers, they seem to have a key role in metal markets. They are not selling.

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This current chart represents only the short side of the money managers. As you can see, short are very low.
No interests on the short side, time to short it then ?

Attached Image

Weekly system agrees with the producers side in a potential huge selling coming up

To sum it up, producers are loaded in shorts, money managers are long and increasing (short are dead).
But Swap dealers which seem to have a key role are NOT selling at all. It seems its important that they sell before we jump on the short side
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #352
  • May 31, 2020 9:51am May 31, 2020 9:51am
Which market to choose for oil ? ICE or NYMEX ?

I'm having a look here at the Crude WTI oil market, comparing the NYMEX and ICE market.
It seems market participants are acting different here based on the market.
I'll only show the money managers and the swap dealers, i'll skip the producers for now

Attached Image

This chart is the Money managers from the ICE market. Not much to see here, expect you saw massive buying on the dip a few weeks ago.

Attached Image

This chart is the Money managers from the NYMEX market. Whenever they buy too much, they hand over the bag to someone else, and it goes down.
Whenever they are not fully loaded, its time to buy. Potential tops/bottom are more clear here

Attached Image

This chart is the Swap dealers from the ICE market. Its more clear here and whenever they are very short, price goes down. Whenever they buy back their shorts, it rises.

Attached Image

This chart is the Swap dealers from the NYMEX market. It looks like the ICE market, but not as good as the ICE market

I would say, we have to look at the Money managers from the NYMEX market, and the Swap dealers from the ICE market.
Below is a potential chart to follow (Money managers from NYMEX compared to the Swap dealers from ICE)

Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #353
  • May 31, 2020 9:25pm May 31, 2020 9:25pm
Where are you guys getting your data from for these charts??
Gentlemen always play by the rules, if they can't, they change them.
  • #354
  • Jun 1, 2020 4:26am Jun 1, 2020 4:26am
Quoting Bsmile44
Where are you guys getting your data from for these charts??
You can find everything you need on the cftc.gov website
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #355
  • Jun 1, 2020 9:24am Jun 1, 2020 9:24am
Hi @Kuroro001

I have been following your thread for a few months now and personally i dont feel any difference using the COT legacy data VS using disaggregated COT data.

I have been using COT extremes and technical analysis to trade for about a year. So far i have been breaking-even in my trading because of trial and error but results are getting better.

What are the advantages of having to view the different types of disaggregated COT data VS conventional COT legacy?

Personally i am avoiding manipulated markets for now like Energy commodities and SPX500 and I feel when trading commodities, just follow the commercial datas as they are the whales.

I also realized COT extreme does not work when prices are trending, that's the main problem i am facing, would you have any solutions to that?

Please pardon my straightforwardness.
  • #356
  • Jun 2, 2020 5:46am Jun 2, 2020 5:46am
Quoting Draxander
Hi @Kuroro001 I have been following your thread for a few months now and personally i dont feel any difference using the COT legacy data VS using disaggregated COT data. I have been using COT extremes and technical analysis to trade for about a year. So far i have been breaking-even in my trading because of trial and error but results are getting better. What are the advantages of having to view the different types of disaggregated COT data VS conventional COT legacy? Personally i am avoiding manipulated markets for now like Energy commodities and...
Hello

You don't see differences between the commercials/non commercials & the dealers/assets managers/money managers?

To be honest i don't look at the commercials/non commercials as i like to have a broader view with the different market participants, and not only a whole group

I find the COT datas very efficient while trading commodities (grains/soft/gas) and S&P have been very good lately.
COT doesn't give you the timing, it gives you the idea of a long term move of what banks are doing.

You need to use technicals, such as oscillator to have a view of a potential top/bottom. And look at the daily/weekly. Lower than that is useless while trading COT.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #357
  • Jun 3, 2020 1:39pm Jun 3, 2020 1:39pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Hello You don't see differences between the commercials/non commercials & the dealers/assets managers/money managers? To be honest i don't look at the commercials/non commercials as i like to have a broader view with the different market participants, and not only a whole group I find the COT datas very efficient while trading commodities (grains/soft/gas) and S&P have been very good lately. COT doesn't give you the timing, it gives you the idea of a long term move of what banks are doing. You need to use technicals, such as oscillator to...
Do you monitor the FCMS and Weekly Swap reports?
I have a couple of issues with the information.
  • #358
  • Jun 5, 2020 1:24pm Jun 5, 2020 1:24pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} Do you monitor the FCMS and Weekly Swap reports? I have a couple of issues with the information.

Not yet, i was about to have a look at it this week end

Is it useful ?
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #359
  • Jun 6, 2020 4:01am Jun 6, 2020 4:01am
Is S&P500 doing things wrong ?

Attached Image

Lets have a look at the dealers first. The red circles are the right ones. Dealers are going very shorts ahead of big dumps, why ? Because they are the sell side and acting as counterpart, meaning other market participants (AM, MM, retail, dumb money) are buying heavy.
Now, Check the blue circles, The first 2, dealers went very short at bottom, why ? because dumb money was loading buys, heavy.
Check the last blue circle ? It seems dealers are very long, meaning other market participants are very short on top. Are they right ? There is a high chance considering where is the price


Attached Image

Assets managers are not buying the rise, usually they are trend followers, adding lots of buy on top, and decreasing a lot on bottom. Lately ? they are not buying the rise, are they right ?

Attached Image

Money managers are loading shorts like there is tomorrow, they follow the Assets managers by not looking at the upside

Attached Image

Lets have a look at the short side of the dealers from the VIX. Every week they are unloading their short bets....but they are still nicely loaded

Attached Image

Short side of the assets managers from the VIX, they are adding shorts as price are rising. But they aren't very loaded. Price is high though, a retrace here shouldn't be ruled out
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #360
  • Jun 6, 2020 4:17am Jun 6, 2020 4:17am
Quoting kuroro001
Is S&P500 doing things wrong ? {image} Lets have a look at the dealers first. The red circles are the right ones. Dealers are going very shorts ahead of big dumps, why ? Because they are the sell side and acting as counterpart, meaning other market participants (AM, MM, retail, dumb money) are buying heavy. Now, Check the blue circles, The first 2, dealers went very short at bottom, why ? because dumb money was loading buys, heavy. Check the last blue circle ? It seems dealers are very long, meaning other market participants are very short on top....
This is a very important post. I hope everyone can see it
It' something that was right 100% from March Bottom.
Big players bull - and not out of position or decreasing even if we got so high above 3100 - same thing buy the dips if any
Hedgefunds very low exposed on this rally - still net short or out of the market. they will buy after 3400 ?
Small Retail adding to short. how crazy is this. Nasdaq all time high. and people are still throwing 1929 charts on Twtr.
Also Since data coming better than expected, earnings in q2 will probably be above expectations. so will they unload longs to retails next month at new highs because now everybody knows it was a V shape ?

very good post and data. and everybody who followed this thread had an edge on the Market.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
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