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Triple Bollinger Band

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  • Post #1
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  • First Post: May 22, 2020 7:32pm May 22, 2020 7:32pm
  •  penyuperwira
  • Joined Aug 2017 | Status: Member | 110 Posts
All you need is these indicators... Parabolic SAR and Zig-Zag at default settings.
I'm using period 200 just because I like how price reacts when touching it.
Attached Image


1st Bollinger Band setings
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2nd Bollinger Band setings
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3rd Bollinger Band setings
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Simple Moving Average
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Shown Below, when Bollinger Band is compressed... it signals a breakout is near.
The best we can do here is to wait for the price to breakout 1st.
The price touching the upper band of the blue line tends to indicate the direction it will go up.
Attached Image


Show below, as long as price above the pink line... direction is trending up.
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Shown below, Middle Bollinger Band - blue line will act as a strong support if the price is above it and act as resistance if the price below it.
Attached Image


Shown below, when the market trend is range.
Price tends to bounce between upper pink and lower pink.
The middle line usually flat when the market is range.
Attached Image

I simply can't attach everything. But this is a good start.
I use Parabolic SAR just to substitute it with Zig-Zag on android MT4/MT5.
Both are great at detecting recent high and low swing.
I usually use H1 and H4... but you can use any timeframe.
The best way to use this triple Bollinger Band is to use it as a support and resistance line.
The price usually bounces back when touching it...
and the line also gives a clue about how much range in pips the price can move next.
Remember, the price tends to move inside the band.
That's all... Good luck.
  • Post #2
  • Quote
  • May 23, 2020 7:03am May 23, 2020 7:03am
  •  HeyYou
  • Joined Apr 2015 | Status: Member | 1,753 Posts
I'm a bit interested.

So, where exactly do you enter after the breakout ? did you backtest manually ?


oh and why are you long and short on EU ?

Attached Image



Thanks.
 
 
  • Post #3
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  • May 23, 2020 7:15am May 23, 2020 7:15am
  •  kodakwhite
  • | Joined Sep 2016 | Status: Member | 166 Posts
triple account blower
 
1
  • Post #4
  • Quote
  • May 23, 2020 3:07pm May 23, 2020 3:07pm
  •  penyuperwira
  • Joined Aug 2017 | Status: Member | 110 Posts
Quoting HeyYou
Disliked
I'm a bit interested. So, where exactly do you enter after the breakout ? did you backtest manually ? oh and why are you long and short on EU ? {image} Thanks.
Ignored
After the breakout, I would enter at upper band blue line...
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I think the EURUSD will go sideways later... and the open trade is a very low risk...
I will add more trade with the direction I confident with later...
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I cannot guarantee this is a profitable strategy, but I do trade manually with this for many years now...
 
 
  • Post #5
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  • Edited 12:48am May 24, 2020 12:33am | Edited 12:48am
  •  HeyYou
  • Joined Apr 2015 | Status: Member | 1,753 Posts
Quoting penyuperwira
Disliked
{quote} After the breakout, I would enter at upper band blue line... {image} I think the EURUSD will go sideways later... and the open trade is a very low risk... I will add more trade with the direction I confident with later... {image} I cannot guarantee this is a profitable strategy, but I do trade manually with this for many years now...
Ignored
Cool, what about your exit plan ?
what makes you change bias and enter the opposite direction ? (btw, I'd rather use a SL, that's why I asked.. but it's your choice).

and what is your profit target ?

what is your actual DD ?

Attached Image
 
 
  • Post #6
  • Quote
  • May 24, 2020 6:06am May 24, 2020 6:06am
  •  penyuperwira
  • Joined Aug 2017 | Status: Member | 110 Posts
Quoting HeyYou
Disliked
{quote} Cool, what about your exit plan ? what makes you change bias and enter the opposite direction ? (btw, I'd rather use a SL, that's why I asked.. but it's your choice). and what is your profit target ? what is your actual DD ? {image}
Ignored
I change my bias and enter the opposite direction when I see...
1. price crossing SMA(200)... you don't want to fight the strong trend
2. top or bottom pattern forming (this is hard to detect)

Exit plan...
1. Usually... scale-out with Net TP - 1% profit
2. Sometimes... Breakeven
3. Rarely... close all at -10% to -20% loss

I don't really like SL because of the reason of price usually, retrace back to where my entry is...

Equity toggle
Attached Image

Yes that is recently unrealized drawdown
Max profit Drawdown -$26

I'm not sure how accurate trade explorer stats below are...
Max return Drawdown -60.8%

My balance at the time was $338.14... so if we calculate like this
Drawdown = (-$26 / $338.14) * 100% = -7.68%

Eventually, my open trade at the time hit 1% TP...
so I'm still 0% drawdown just because trade close with positive profit

Balance toggle
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This account is too early to evaluate profitability... give it a year to grow
but I don't expect too much profit will be generated...
because I'm using the lowest risk setting right now...
so low-risk low return.
 
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  • Post #7
  • Quote
  • May 24, 2020 7:21am May 24, 2020 7:21am
  •  HeyYou
  • Joined Apr 2015 | Status: Member | 1,753 Posts
Quoting penyuperwira
Disliked
{quote} I change my bias and enter the opposite direction when I see... 1. price crossing SMA(200)... you don't want to fight the strong trend 2. top or bottom pattern forming (this is hard to detect) Exit plan... 1. Usually... scale-out with Net TP - 1% profit 2. Sometimes... Breakeven 3. Rarely... close all at -10% to -20% loss I don't really like SL because of the reason of price usually, retrace back to where my entry is... Equity toggle {image} Yes that is recently unrealized drawdown Max profit Drawdown -$26 I'm not sure how accurate trade explorer stats below are... Max return Drawdown -60.8% My balance at the time was $338.14... so if we calculate like this Drawdown = (-$26 / $338.14) * 100% = -7.68% Eventually, my open trade at the time hit 1% TP... so I'm still 0% drawdown just because trade close with positive profit Balance toggle {image} This account is too early to evaluate profitability... give it a year to grow but I don't expect too much profit will be generated... because I'm using the lowest risk setting right now... so low-risk low return.
Ignored

Perfect
 
 
  • Post #8
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  • May 24, 2020 11:43am May 24, 2020 11:43am
  •  radityo.ardi
  • Joined Jul 2014 | Status: BAGONG!!! | 1,142 Posts
Quoting penyuperwira
Disliked
Shown Below, when Bollinger Band is compressed... it signals a breakout is near.
Ignored
I couldn't agree with you more in any other way. When the BB is compressed, break out tends to happen. It's all over the different timeline.
I was going to find out the best BB, then this post sparks something in my mind.
If you ask me to code/fix your EA... it's probably not for free...
 
 
  • Post #9
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  • May 27, 2020 7:29am May 27, 2020 7:29am
  •  radityo.ardi
  • Joined Jul 2014 | Status: BAGONG!!! | 1,142 Posts
Quoting HeyYou
Disliked
{quote} This was my first "brutal" attempt to FX.. wait for a consolidation... then: reverse, reverse, reverse with rr 1:3 or something like that and a martingale lol.. it worked like a charm, but it was so risky Maybe the "secret" is to use a wide SL and enter at pullbacks as our friend suggests . I' think I will give it a try
Ignored
Honestly, I couldn't find a pattern with your triple BB method until today.

Anyway, I am sharing a concept on my 3 years old thread about martingale, which recently got a promising result with martingale. I am still refining the strategy, backtesting, fine tune here and there.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post12965981
If you ask me to code/fix your EA... it's probably not for free...
 
 
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • May 27, 2020 8:46am May 27, 2020 8:46am
  •  penyuperwira
  • Joined Aug 2017 | Status: Member | 110 Posts
Quoting HeyYou
Disliked
{quote} This was my first "brutal" attempt to FX.. wait for a consolidation... then: reverse, reverse, reverse with rr 1:3 or something like that and a martingale lol.. it worked like a charm, but it was so risky Maybe the "secret" is to use a wide SL and enter at pullbacks as our friend suggests . I' think I will give it a try
Ignored
Quoting radityo.ardi
Disliked
{quote} Honestly, I couldn't find a pattern with your triple BB method until today. Anyway, I am sharing a concept on my 3 years old thread about martingale, which recently got a promising result with martingale. I am still refining the strategy, backtesting, fine tune here and there. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post12965981
Ignored
Hurrmmm... I don't really understand what are you all talking about...
Btw, In a range market, let's just trade like a grid system...
Sell and buy at the same time... until it does not work anymore (trending market)...

1st round grid
Attached Image
result - 1st buy trade hit TP

2nd round grid
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result - 2nd buy trade hit TP

3rd round grid
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I'm not doing martingale lot size...
the 1st trade was set at 0.05% risk lot...
I double the setting to 0.10% risk lot for now...
This will make it faster to hit my TP with the same profit target
This is still low-risk setting... 1:1 leverage per trade
Attached Image
Attached Image
 
 
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • May 28, 2020 7:36am May 28, 2020 7:36am
  •  penyuperwira
  • Joined Aug 2017 | Status: Member | 110 Posts
The way I see it...
major Resistance at Upper band BB(200) deviation 3... green line
minor Resistance at Upper band BB(200) deviation 2... blue line
minor Support at Upper band BB(200) deviation 1... pink line
major support at middle band BB(200) / SMA(200) blue line
and there is another important level to watch
high and low (daily, weekly, monthly)
then from Hi-Lo, draw Fibonacci levels...
Attached Image

Sell TP miss by 1 pip yesterday... I wait and wait,
then price reversed completely to the upside...
Looking at H4... there is still a chance for sideway
Attached Image
 
 
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Edited 11:04am May 28, 2020 10:49am | Edited 11:04am
  •  penyuperwira
  • Joined Aug 2017 | Status: Member | 110 Posts
3rd Buy trade hit TP...
End of Grid, but I open another sell trade...
TP shifted up as usual for 0.3% profit target...
Attached Image

Looking at H4, it seems there is chance trade to hit TP...
upper band green line will act as major resistance... 1.1060
upper band blue line will act as minor resistance... 1.10
Attached Image

looking at the daily chart...
seems we still going for upside until upper band pink line... 1.1150
worst case this could go beyond to the upper band green line... 1.14
on the downside...
middle band blue line will act as minor support... 1.10
and lower band pink line will act as major support... 1.09
Attached Image
 
 
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • May 28, 2020 12:44pm May 28, 2020 12:44pm
  •  penyuperwira
  • Joined Aug 2017 | Status: Member | 110 Posts
Not sure if this is too early to add another sell trade...
Could probably reach 1.1150... as far as the daily chart goes...
I'm selling this because H4 and H1 reach the upper band green line as major resistance...
price tends to bounce back here and move to the middle band / SMA(200)
Attached Image

Attached Image
 
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  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • May 28, 2020 12:53pm May 28, 2020 12:53pm
  •  FXsniper111
  • Joined Dec 2018 | Status: Member | 881 Posts
I think we are near the top now its a overweight of sellers in the market now,but its U.S session and low volume so it might not move a lot and of course the MM can still push it a bit higher,but as said there are more buyers than sellers now atleast that is what my data is saying...
Insanityoing same ting over expecting different results..Einstein
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  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • May 28, 2020 1:14pm May 28, 2020 1:14pm
  •  marecki
  • | Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 122 Posts
Hi penyuperwira,

I have a question about the trading explorer You attached to the thread: do You trade any sort of grid on that account?
 
 
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • May 28, 2020 1:17pm May 28, 2020 1:17pm
  •  FXsniper111
  • Joined Dec 2018 | Status: Member | 881 Posts
Quoting marecki
Disliked
Hi penyuperwira, I have a question about the trading explorer You attached to the thread: do You trade any sort of grid on that account?
Ignored
Dont you see hes posisions on the chart multiple 0.28 lots poss......he awerage in as it goes against him.....And this is Grids with same possision exept the first posision that is half...
Insanityoing same ting over expecting different results..Einstein
1
 
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • May 28, 2020 3:34pm May 28, 2020 3:34pm
  •  FXsniper111
  • Joined Dec 2018 | Status: Member | 881 Posts
Quoting FXsniper111
Disliked
{quote} Dont you see hes posisions on the chart multiple 0.28 lots poss......he awerage in as it goes against him.....And this is Grids with same possision exept the first posision that is half...
Ignored
well the MM pushed it a bit higher to take out the last of the seller with stoplosses and now the dive came,but then overweight of sellers can come into play again...Lets hope for your sake Penup that it will continue down...

P:Sorry mixed up of course sellers come in not buyers...
Insanityoing same ting over expecting different results..Einstein
1
 
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Edited 9:44pm May 28, 2020 9:00pm | Edited 9:44pm
  •  penyuperwira
  • Joined Aug 2017 | Status: Member | 110 Posts
Quoting marecki
Disliked
Hi penyuperwira, I have a question about the trading explorer You attached to the thread: do You trade any sort of grid on that account?
Ignored
Basically YES... I do the grid... buy and sell at the same time

Quoting FXsniper111
Disliked
{quote} Dont you see hes posisions on the chart multiple 0.28 lots poss......he awerage in as it goes against him.....And this is Grids with same possision exept the first posision that is half...
Ignored
Correct... I exit the trade with an average net profit at TP

Quoting FXsniper111
Disliked
{quote} well the MM pushed it a bit higher to take out the last of the seller with stoplosses and now the dive came,but then overweight of sellers can come into play again...Lets hope for your sake Penup that it will continue down... P:Sorry mixed up of course sellers come in not buyers...
Ignored
If price, not fall down below 1.1050 today... then the buyer could push this again up to 1.1150 and beyond
I'm ready to suffer a drawdown up to -5% or more
We are still on a weekly / monthly fibo expansion ride...
Attached Image
 
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  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • May 29, 2020 1:29pm May 29, 2020 1:29pm
  •  penyuperwira
  • Joined Aug 2017 | Status: Member | 110 Posts
This is some potential... chances to exit with very big profit
Not sure if I want to TP at 1% profit @1.1044 or TP at 10% profit @1.0915
I could try to set SL at 1% profit and set TP at 10% profit...
but this is could still very bullish trend... temporary small dip...
Attached Image
 
 
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Dec 26, 2020 10:24pm Dec 26, 2020 10:24pm
  •  Erebus
  • Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Member | 7,002 Posts
Well, that went to Schitt pretty fast, time for the autopsy I reckon

1) to my thinking, Bollinger Bands are not designed for breakout trading; rather they show when the price is at an extreme and possible return to the mean

2) apart from the fuzzy feeling the OP got when the price was at the line, there was no other reason to use a period of 200, especially on a 4-Hour chart, no testing, no real anything that I can see, common sense tells me it's just too long, seem the Trade Explorer agrees with that

Here is an example of a much better method to spot a breakout, just draw a horizontal line, keep it simple, everybody "sees" the same price, even an EA

What do you think was wrong with the system?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: 2020-12-27_12-43-51.jpg
Size: 187 KB


Here is a little something that I'm working on, each line is 100 pips

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: 2020-12-27_13-23-24.jpg
Size: 331 KB
Maximize wins, minimize loss, stay in the game as long as you can
 
 
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