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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #1,341
  • Edited 10:26pm May 27, 2020 2:19pm | Edited 10:26pm
Quoting Abe16
{quote} Guess I hit a nerve. Freeloading is an interesting description of my investment approach. I'm one of those taxpayers and in a very high tax bracket. I'm the one assuming 100% of the risk with my investment decisions. If the US stock market tanks as you have predicted, no one will bail me out. I will suffer 100% of the loss. So in that respect I'm not freeloading. But I get what you're referring to. You think I'm freeloading because of my faith in the US economy which embraces capitalism in a free society and futhermore that the current economic...
you've got to be kidding me... unlike you I never base my trading strategies on some BS mantras about "freedom/liberty and capitalism" or any other of this sort that you used to repeat over and over again... my projections for any time frame are the results of the chart reading method only as I never take into consideration any fundamental factors while planning my trading... therefore every forecast is just a byproduct of such a thing as "visual chart analysis"... when I see a technical picture on the charts I first define the levels the market must reach in the future and then start creating some trading plan and strategy based on that quite objective picture... only after that, and exclusively for entertainment purposes, I can start publicly fantasizing about what might have been causing such a market move or is likely to cause it... and not vice versa as you used to do... therefore your martingale like trading approach, based on the pure assumption that on the longer run the market will always go in one direction, supported by yet another (freshly evolving and really unsubstantiated) belief that FED will always (and no matter what) bail out of trouble you and alike, seems worthless to me... since you and some others are incapable of understanding such a concept, I have no other choice but to communicate with you in the terms that you at least are capable of understanding... thus is my involvement into otherwise useless to me argument...

at this very moment the technical picture quite objectively points out at a very high probability that the markets will reach sub 2009 levels regardless of any conscious, unconscious or instinctive measures and decisions that FED, or anyone else, might be taking in the future... as of this moment the technical picture on the US stocks is almost exactly replicating the one on the crude oil charts ( earlier I already posted them both side by side to compare)... so I do really have a serious technical reason to suppose that the eventual outcome will also be similar to that...
  • #1,342
  • May 27, 2020 6:21pm May 27, 2020 6:21pm
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Freedom is not free
  • #1,343
  • May 27, 2020 6:30pm May 27, 2020 6:30pm
Quoting Abe16
{image}
so, what does it prove other than the market is capable of going in both directions, up and down?... quite a scientific discovery of yours... congratulations... don't forget to patent it before someone else came up with such a great idea... your primitive way of thinking really amazes me...
  • #1,344
  • Edited 7:36pm May 27, 2020 6:48pm | Edited 7:36pm
I would recommend reading again what I posted here... my post #1048... https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=12827739#post12827739
  • #1,345
  • May 27, 2020 7:10pm May 27, 2020 7:10pm
and this is another one... #336...https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=12664880#post12664880 DJI chart can be updated and compared again... almost same thing as of today in terms of levels and sequences...
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  • #1,346
  • Edited May 28, 2020 12:34am May 27, 2020 7:26pm | Edited May 28, 2020 12:34am
I guess it's gonna be easier to visualize my point after connecting the dots between local minimums and maximums... first one is the Brent crude oil chart... second is DJI... their behavioral patterns are quite similar... the sequences of the waives, after the diamonds were formed and broken out, are identical... the only difference is that DJI was moving faster and is a bit more volatile... worth noticing, that in both cases, only after the Measured Objective Targets were reached by them both, the initial moves down had also reached the tops of each of those diamonds (indicated by the red horizontal lines)...
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  • #1,347
  • Edited 8:36pm May 27, 2020 8:20pm | Edited 8:36pm
Soviet-Harvard Delusion - by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Black Swan & Antifragile auth.)

- It is a belief in a top-down system that tries to control and protect, purportedly for mankind's benefit, thereby eliminating the natural stressors and necessary randomness that create strength and encourage enterprise. Dekulakization and course catalogs are symptoms of the same ailment.

" it means that overvaluing theoretical projections while failing to embrace factors such as uncertainty,.." - Veronika Janeckova


Igrok, Artists and writers are antifragile - Taleb
  • #1,348
  • Edited May 28, 2020 12:40am May 27, 2020 8:22pm | Edited May 28, 2020 12:40am
and now let's take a look at what has eventually happened to the oil prices...
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  • #1,349
  • Edited 10:48pm May 27, 2020 8:32pm | Edited 10:48pm
Quoting eFFx168
Soviet-Harvard Delusion - by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Black Swan & Antifragile auth.) " it means that overvaluing theoretical projections while failing to embrace factors such as uncertainty,.." - Veronika Janeckova
I'm not a big fan of Taleb's "Black Swan" theory... to me it looks like some kind of "commonplace knowledge" because obviously unexpected things do really happen from time to time and can influence the market prices greatly... on the other hand, something like 2008 crisis, that might look like a "black swan" kind of event to someone else, was quite predictable in fact... I already explained in this very thread why and how I was able to project it way in advance and to profit from that knowledge... you can read about it here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=12664603#post12664603 and here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=12664778#post12664778
  • #1,350
  • May 27, 2020 8:36pm May 27, 2020 8:36pm
Quoting eFFx168
Igrok, Artists and writers are antifragile - Taleb
though this one I totally agree with... anyways he is a great talented guy overall... no doubts about it...
  • #1,351
  • Edited 1:10am May 28, 2020 12:52am | Edited 1:10am
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} What an odd thing to say....perhaps that is the underlying motive for all of this "The end of the US stock market is coming" rhetoric?....to persuade others to spread the word to maybe help it along?....
you certainly overestimate my influence... there is no way for me to persuade the majority of the readers to do anything against their own views and believes... my only hope is that at least the smartest ones, those capable of independent outside the box way of thinking, will get the general idea of what might actually happen, why I think so and what might be the basis for those views... at least they might take some precautions even if they generally disagree with me on this particular issue... I even hope that you're one of them as it's never too late to learn something new... though the "lemmings" will drawn themselves regardless of anything... it's also as inevitable as hitting some of my "must reach" projected levels...
  • #1,352
  • May 28, 2020 2:37am May 28, 2020 2:37am
Remember this post market will move as per my instructions with detailed price for each wave

Good luck everyone
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  • #1,353
  • May 28, 2020 3:19am May 28, 2020 3:19am
Quoting SilentFixer
Remember this post market will move as per my instructions with detailed price for each wave Good luck everyone {image}
thanks a lot... I will definitely make a tattoo with this picture on my left forearm never to forget...
  • #1,354
  • May 28, 2020 4:28am May 28, 2020 4:28am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} .. at this very moment the technical picture quite objectively points out at a very high probability that the markets will reach sub 2009 levels regardless of any conscious, unconscious or instinctive measures and decisions that FED, or anyone else, might be taking in the future... as of this moment the technical picture on the US stocks is almost exactly replicating the one on the crude oil charts ( earlier I already posted them both side by side to compare)... so I do really have a serious technical reason...
Are you concern about the survivability of our brokers in such an event? The markets will be far more chaotic compared to March 2020.
  • #1,355
  • Edited 3:45pm May 28, 2020 3:31pm | Edited 3:45pm
Quoting skies
{quote} Are you concern about the survivability of our brokers in such an event? The markets will be far more chaotic compared to March 2020.
absolutely... the entire financial industry is to shrink greatly in case of such a situation... mass bankruptcies among them are guaranteed... perhaps it's not going even to be safe walking down the Wall Street because of the suicidal brokers jumping out of the office windows like it was taking place back in 1929... I guess that at some point trading will be halted, exchanges shut down, speculative operations postponed...I hope a solution will be somehow found in advance to make the unavoidable less painful and dramatic...
  • #1,356
  • May 31, 2020 10:42pm May 31, 2020 10:42pm
as it seems the US quarantines have been effectively lifted and cancelled by the death of yet another unarmed black man at the hands of the police officers... and we now have a couple of weeks to see whether all those quarantine measures were necessary in the first place or not... though in any case it's already clear even now, that all those billions and trillion injected in the US economy while it was under quarantines, have been wasted completely... no more bullets left to support it...
  • #1,357
  • Jun 1, 2020 11:03pm Jun 1, 2020 11:03pm
that's quite unfortunate that the US has chosen to "commit suicide" in such a bizarre way amid still ongoing pandemic and economic disaster... no social or economic recovery look plausible under those circumstance... I guess it would be a safe bet to suppose, that the next presidential election will end up in a huge political crisis as well, as its results will not be accepted by roughly a half of the population regardless of the actual winner... the losing side is likely to challenge the outcome by any means available, perhaps including even armed resistance and insurrection... no stock market to survive such a chain of events if the already ongoing cold civil war will eventually turn into a hot one...
  • #1,358
  • Jun 2, 2020 7:09am Jun 2, 2020 7:09am
Hi Igor,
don't discount finding a common enemy as yet, the very thing that unites people and provides purpose at the same time. As your aware,there doesn't have to be a true premise on which to unite against, just a perceived one. presently there is a lot of people looking for leadership and something to unite them.
  • #1,359
  • Jun 2, 2020 8:17am Jun 2, 2020 8:17am
Quoting Igrok
including even armed resistance and insurrection... no stock market to survive such a chain of events if the already ongoing cold civil war will eventually turn into a hot one...
I think there are 3 separate questions there:
1/ armed insurrection - have You considered gun ownership laws in US states? AFAIK, most gun-unfriendly states are D and gun-friendly are R. Hence, Antifa with baseball bats and bricks stands no chance against 1-2 men with AR-15, enough ammo, knowledge and willingness to use it. Cue Indonesia civil war or even Cambodia 1975 where a small minority with guns and willingness to use it massacred 100s of thousands.
2/ Martin Armstrong predicts a US stock market slingshot fairly soon, just because everyone else's stock market is going to be choked by liquidity drain in US direction. His reasoning is quite complelling
3/ cold civil war and even hot one can exist together with a functioning stock market, like during US Civil War
  • #1,360
  • Jun 2, 2020 9:31am Jun 2, 2020 9:31am
Quoting Edd111111
Hi Igor, don't discount finding a common enemy as yet, the very thing that unites people and provides purpose at the same time. As your aware,there doesn't have to be a true premise on which to unite against, just a perceived one. presently there is a lot of people looking for leadership and something to unite them.
apparently you're making a valid point... though it's just impossible to take each and every important factor into account... pretty much like in trading where you have to make a decision based only on a small fraction of info that might be available to a trader/investor... nonetheless we can start a truly international discussion right here where everyone can bring his own arguments into for further scrutiny by other participants... despite me preferring trade on technical reasons I don't mind discussing and considering anything else and would love to learn from others as well...
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