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Trading Institutional Order Flow

  • #8,461
  • May 21, 2020 3:23am May 21, 2020 3:23am
Quoting Obiech
Please can anyone clarify me When trading the monthly weekly daily combo If price is going up on the weekly and still low in the curve. If price hits the weekly supply and breaks it. At what time should we consider buying 1..... price breaks the weekly supply. Should we wait for price to retrace back to a weekly demand before buying on the daily demands(what if price breaks the weekly supply and keep on railing) or can we start considering buying on all daily demands since the weekly supply has been talking out
Hi Obiech,

If the weekly is trending up and the momentum is up, your supply is being absorbed it means it got absorbed by a demand (so you need to find this demand), if the daily is up and supply is being removed by demand levels you can take the daily levels of demand, but you can only take Daily Demand Levels if its on the correct side of the momentum, if the TL on the daily will get broken, then you can only trade the weekly levels or daily embedded within the weekly demand (weekly momentum still needs to be intact). If taking the daily levels please make sure that you have enough room for the profit target on that particular timeframe.
  • #8,462
  • May 21, 2020 3:35am May 21, 2020 3:35am
Quoting DavidKl
{quote} Hi Obiech, If the weekly is trending up and the momentum is up, your supply is being absorbed it means it got absorbed by a demand (so you need to find this demand), if the daily is up and supply is being removed by demand levels you can take the daily levels of demand, but you can only take Daily Demand Levels if its on the correct side of the momentum, if the TL on the daily will get broken, then you can only trade the weekly levels or daily embedded within the weekly demand (weekly momentum still needs to be intact). If taking the daily...
Hello DavidK1

Thank you for your response to Obiech

Well done. Lesson well learned.

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #8,463
  • May 21, 2020 3:47am May 21, 2020 3:47am
Quoting Obiech
Please can anyone clarify me When trading the monthly weekly daily combo If price is going up on the weekly and still low in the curve. If price hits the weekly supply and breaks it. At what time should we consider buying 1..... price breaks the weekly supply. Should we wait for price to retrace back to a weekly demand before buying on the daily demands(what if price breaks the weekly supply and keep on railing) or can we start considering buying on all daily demands since the weekly supply has been talking out
Hello Obiech.

To add to the conversation, when the weekly is in an uptrend but is at weekly supply, for that uptrend to continue, that supply must be removed.
The chances of that supply being removed are high if a) the weekly is in an uptrend (which it is) and b) if the monthly is in an uptrend as well.
The scenario you described is an example of what is called trend realignment within the Supply and Demand community.

Now, to the question of where to enter, you are correct in your thinking to continue to enter at daily demand levels - however, not at daily demand levels that are not properly located at weekly levels whilst proces are at weekly supply.
If and when the weekly supply is removed and there is room to the next weekly supply, it may be possible to buy daily demand zones.

As you will know, within the methodology we much prefer buying on pullbacks and selling on rallies, in the context of the corresponding trends.
That is not to say buying breaouts or selling breakdowns in the same trends is wrong or incorrect, not at all. It's a matter of personal preference.

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #8,464
  • May 24, 2020 4:03pm May 24, 2020 4:03pm
Quoting DavidKl
{quote} Hi Obiech, If the weekly is trending up and the momentum is up, your supply is being absorbed it means it got absorbed by a demand (so you need to find this demand), if the daily is up and supply is being removed by demand levels you can take the daily levels of demand, but you can only take Daily Demand Levels if its on the correct side of the momentum, if the TL on the daily will get broken, then you can only trade the weekly levels or daily embedded within the weekly demand (weekly momentum still needs to be intact). If taking the daily...

Thank you very much mate
  • #8,465
  • May 24, 2020 4:04pm May 24, 2020 4:04pm
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello Obiech. To add to the conversation, when the weekly is in an uptrend but is at weekly supply, for that uptrend to continue, that supply must be removed. The chances of that supply being removed are high if a) the weekly is in an uptrend (which it is) and b) if the monthly is in an uptrend as well. The scenario you described is an example of what is called trend realignment within the Supply and Demand community. Now, to the question of where to enter, you are correct in your thinking to continue to enter at daily demand levels - however,...

Alright sir
Thanks for the clarification
  • #8,466
  • May 24, 2020 4:12pm May 24, 2020 4:12pm
Please one more question

When trading the monthly weekly daily combo

If pice is low in the curve
the weekly is in an uptrend and price is at a fresh weekly demand
But on the daily there isn't any fresh demand within the weekly demand(there are some daily demand levels with the weekly level but none of the daily level are fresh)

What should I do ?
Avoid the trade or take trades on any of the daily level since the weekly level is fresh
  • #8,467
  • May 24, 2020 5:21pm May 24, 2020 5:21pm
Hi Guys hope you all Good, I'm new here, found out about this thread through Michel's YouTube channel so I watched most of his videos yet there's still something I'm missing a little, The concept of Level validation where they say for a level to change from buying or selling area to a S or D zone it should remove an opposing level, please someone clarify if you understand it
  • #8,468
  • May 24, 2020 6:37pm May 24, 2020 6:37pm
Quoting themba101
Hi Guys hope you all Good, I'm new here, found out about this thread through Michel's YouTube channel so I watched most of his videos yet there's still something I'm missing a little, The concept of Level validation where they say for a level to change from buying or selling area to a S or D zone it should remove an opposing level, please someone clarify if you understand it

The level becomes valid when it takes out an opposing zone or breaks a trendline.
The opposing zone it takes out must also be a valid zone(that is the zone also broke a trendline or took out an opposing zone)
N.b
Making higher highs or lower lows doesn't necessarily make the zone a valid zone( the high or low it is breaking must also be a valid zone to be consider vaild)


Example
A daily demand zone becomes valid when it breaks an opposing supply zone on the daily(be it by just a pip or more) and the supply zone it took out must have taken out a previous daily demand zone or broken a trendline on the daily tf
Or the daily demand level broke a trendline on the daily tf by a whole candle high and low


I hope I haven't confuse you sir
  • #8,469
  • May 24, 2020 10:48pm May 24, 2020 10:48pm
Quoting Obiech
Please one more question When trading the monthly weekly daily combo If pice is low in the curve the weekly is in an uptrend and price is at a fresh weekly demand But on the daily there isn't any fresh demand within the weekly demand(there are some daily demand levels with the weekly level but none of the daily level are fresh) What should I do ? Avoid the trade or take trades on any of the daily level since the weekly level is fresh
Good day to you Obiech, I will explain how I interpret the situation you have just described.
Firstly, remember the fundamental rules no matter how complicated a situation may seem.

In the scenario you gave, price was low on your Weekly/curve timeframe and the market is in an uptrend. This means short trades are low probability and long trades are high probability so we should be looking for buying opportunities.
Moving one timeframe lower in your sequence to the Daily timeframe where you would look for trading opportunities, you say there are no fresh demand zones. Therefore, we must wait for newer zones to be formed which we can take trades from.

Zones used more than once before in the past become low probability zones to trade from.
So, following the rules, you should avoid trades from those currently used-up zones.
The Weekly level being fresh increases the probability of a trade being successful but fresh, lower timeframe zones should also be used as confirmation.

Sincerely,
D.B.
  • #8,470
  • May 25, 2020 3:31am May 25, 2020 3:31am
Hello AKT & fellow traders,

I have been reading this forum for quite a while. I have learned a lot from this forum. Thank you AKT for the great thread packed with lot of information.
I will start posting charts. Look forward to learn from the community and share my knowledge as well.

Regards,
T
  • #8,471
  • May 25, 2020 5:23am May 25, 2020 5:23am
Thank you Obiech, I clearly understand so the important thing for a level to be tradable it should be valid and with the current momentum right?
  • #8,472
  • May 25, 2020 8:48am May 25, 2020 8:48am
Exactly Order flow analysis is much necessary to determine and confirm trend
  • #8,473
  • May 26, 2020 5:52pm May 26, 2020 5:52pm
Quoting D.B
{quote} Good day to you Obiech, I will explain how I interpret the situation you have just described. Firstly, remember the fundamental rules no matter how complicated a situation may seem. In the scenario you gave, price was low on your Weekly/curve timeframe and the market is in an uptrend. This means short trades are low probability and long trades are high probability so we should be looking for buying opportunities. Moving one timeframe lower in your sequence to the Daily timeframe where you would look for trading opportunities, you say there...

Thank you very much sir
  • #8,474
  • May 26, 2020 10:31pm May 26, 2020 10:31pm
Hi all,
Hope everyone is having a great trading week thus far.

I was analyzing EUR/USD and realized I missed a potential short, did anyone happen to spot it or take it?

My trading timeframes are Intraday: Daily - 4hr - 1Hr

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The Daily Range of EUR/USD

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The Trade

All thoughts are welcome

D.B
  • #8,475
  • May 26, 2020 10:34pm May 26, 2020 10:34pm
I may look for an entry on the lower timeframes.
Following my trading plan of course.

D.B
  • #8,476
  • May 27, 2020 12:41am May 27, 2020 12:41am
Quoting D.B
Hi all, Hope everyone is having a great trading week thus far. I was analyzing EUR/USD and realized I missed a potential short, did anyone happen to spot it or take it? My trading timeframes are Intraday: Daily - 4hr - 1Hr {image} The Daily Range of EUR/USD {image} The Trade All thoughts are welcome D.B
Hi D.B,

I tried to short at the 4H DBD SZ just below the one you drew and had a small loss. I should have waited for the upper zone or have my SL above that zone.
  • #8,477
  • May 27, 2020 9:45am May 27, 2020 9:45am
Quoting Teddy67
{quote} Hi D.B, I tried to short at the 4H DBD SZ just below the one you drew and had a small loss. I should have waited for the upper zone or have my SL above that zone.
Hey Teddy!
I see where you're referring to, it seems that now may not be the best time to short EURUSD.
I tried to short EURUSD as well but I was asleep when my order was filled and couldn't manage the trade, it was a loss, I'll share it shortly.

Best Wishes,
D.B
  • #8,478
  • May 27, 2020 9:58am May 27, 2020 9:58am
Quoting D.B
{quote} Hey Teddy! I see where you're referring to, it seems that now may not be the best time to short EURUSD. I tried to short EURUSD as well but I was asleep when my order was filled and couldn't manage the trade, it was a loss, I'll share it shortly. Best Wishes, D.B
The EURUSD Trade I took @Teddy67

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Shorting from embedded levels. It was a 1Hr level within a 4Hr within the Daily Supply.

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And this is what happened.

I say, if I was not asleep at the time I would've managed the trade and moved my Stop Loss to Entry to protect the trade after the initial reaction.
Aside from that, I followed my rules and a loss is a loss.

D.B
  • #8,479
  • May 27, 2020 10:16am May 27, 2020 10:16am
What I see on EURUSD now.
I won't be trading this pair until things are clearer, simple.

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D.B
  • #8,480
  • May 27, 2020 10:18am May 27, 2020 10:18am
GBP/USD

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Daily

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4Hr

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1Hr

D.B
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