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Trading Institutional Order Flow

  • #8,441
  • May 13, 2020 10:43am May 13, 2020 10:43am
Quoting Obiech
{quote} Hey David(I hope you don't mind me calling you David) To an extent I think we're saying the same thing tho. But how is trading the 4hr 1hr combo working out for you, I presently trade the weekly daily 4hr but I'm an intraday trader so I would prefer trading the 4hr 1hr 15 combo but I'm not because I felt it wouldn't work out(reason been that you would have to be aware of htf zones like the daily, weekly e.t.c) I've been reading your post and it seems you're kind of new to this strategy, if so I really hope we can help each other become profitable...
no worries that's my name so you can call me by it . I am kind of new to this strategy, but not new really. I was studying S and D by myself but I had few questions that were bugging me and I noticed this thread so I just wanted to make sure. I went through Alfonso SD course in the past and I am still studying the material.

I discovered that when I was trading the 1D, 4H and 1H sequence it was too slow for me and that's the reason why I dropped to 4H as my highest TF I just see more action on that TF combination compared to Daily etc, I also got more time on my hands right now so it works better for me.

Returning to question on hand, higher TF trends always take the lead role, hence the reason why I looked at the 1H supply zone more like a target rather than a true supply as it didn't remove any demand to the left, also the price hasn't tested the 4H opposite supply yet, so better chances are to go long on 1 hour TF with the 4H trend rather than shorting in that supply. If you will look at the chart right now that 1H supply was taken out straight away. I am actually looking to go long in the EURUSD if I can get the confirmation trade. I am getting the confirmation trade because the Momentum line was broken but the demand wasn't removed yet (consolidation phase). please see the screenshot, below.

1H

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5M

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  • #8,442
  • May 13, 2020 10:51am May 13, 2020 10:51am
USDSGD Weekly

We have a very strong imbalance on the weekly. Market created new demand. Going short is not a good idea.
We will be looking to go long when price returns to the level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,443
  • May 13, 2020 12:11pm May 13, 2020 12:11pm
Quoting DavidKl
{quote} no worries that's my name so you can call me by it . I am kind of new to this strategy, but not new really. I was studying S and D by myself but I had few questions that were bugging me and I noticed this thread so I just wanted to make sure. I went through Alfonso SD course in the past and I am still studying the material. I discovered that when I was trading the 1D, 4H and 1H sequence it was too slow for me and that's the reason why I dropped to 4H as my highest TF I just see more action on that TF combination compared to Daily...

Ooh I get you now. Thanks for clarifying
But I noticed on your 1hr chart that, the spike that took away the 1hr weak supply zone touched the 4hr supply zone before reversing. Is going long on the 1hr demand zone still high odds.
Shouldn't we be considering the 4hr demand zone for our next long. Thanks

Please if you don't mind, could you resend your PM,
  • #8,444
  • May 13, 2020 12:27pm May 13, 2020 12:27pm
Hi All, I looked at the history of my trades since the 3rd of April. What I noticed is, if you are in the uptrend on your curve Time Frame (mine is 4H), and the price have hit the supply on that 4H chart, the price still liked to react more often from the 1H and 15M zones (in line with the 4H) rather than going down only because of the fact that the price have hit 4H supply. I noticed that because a lot of my losing trades were when I was trying to short only because the price have hit the 4H supply in the 4H curve TF and I was disregarding the uptrend. Couple of examples from today even. Have any of you guys came into the same conclusion ?

Examples from today.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,445
  • May 13, 2020 1:49pm May 13, 2020 1:49pm
Quoting Obiech
{quote} Ooh I get you now. Thanks for clarifying But I noticed on your 1hr chart that, the spike that took away the 1hr weak supply zone touched the 4hr supply zone before reversing. Is going long on the 1hr demand zone still high odds. Shouldn't we be considering the 4hr demand zone for our next long. Thanks Please if you don't mind, could you resend your PM,
yes you are right it was taken out but like a half a pip, that's why I was waiting for the confirmation trade for going long. please see the below screenshot, it didn't happen so I didn't take that trade. The reason why price barely broke the TL and it didn't take out the opposing supply just before the large bearish candle, so I stayed away. Now the price is in the next 1 hour demand right on top of the 4H zone. I will see how that is going to play out.

Yes the plan says wait for the 4H to be hit, but the only reason why I am considering the 1H demand because it's right on the top of the 4H.

Before

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Now

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  • #8,446
  • May 13, 2020 3:49pm May 13, 2020 3:49pm
Quoting DavidKl
Hi All, I looked at the history of my trades since the 3rd of April. What I noticed is, if you are in the uptrend on your curve Time Frame (mine is 4H), and the price have hit the supply on that 4H chart, the price still liked to react more often from the 1H and 15M zones (in line with the 4H) rather than going down only because of the fact that the price have hit 4H supply. I noticed that because a lot of my losing trades were when I was trying to short only because the price have hit the 4H supply in the 4H curve TF and I was disregarding the...
Hi David,

I took the EC trade today.

That is good H1 demand zone. However, you aren't going to buy there, are you?

IMO, just forget about Trend line for trading time frame. It will misleading you more. The zone has been sitting there since beginning. Just get good quality SD zone wait and see like fishing.

Regards,

Tie
  • #8,447
  • May 13, 2020 4:19pm May 13, 2020 4:19pm
PLANET FITNESS INC. ($PLNT)

Weekly supply zone in control. Market could drop furthur.
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  • #8,448
  • May 13, 2020 6:04pm May 13, 2020 6:04pm
Quoting wtjfree
{quote} Hi David, I took the EC trade today. That is good H1 demand zone. However, you aren't going to buy there, are you? IMO, just forget about Trend line for trading time frame. It will misleading you more. The zone has been sitting there since beginning. Just get good quality SD zone wait and see like fishing. Regards, Tie
Hi Wtjfree

Nice trade, I think that what is misleading me and I am missing out on trades because of that. I might just do that if the zone is standing out like a sore thumb
  • #8,449
  • May 13, 2020 6:13pm May 13, 2020 6:13pm
I got 2 possible entry for tomorrow, one maybe today. please see the below. EURGBP and EURJPY

EURJPY - 4H in downtrend and consumed previous demand. Nice 1 hour supply within the 4H curve zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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EG - I got an order set but not sure if the price will make it down there.

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  • #8,450
  • May 13, 2020 6:33pm May 13, 2020 6:33pm
Quoting DavidKl
{quote} Hi Wtjfree Nice trade, I think that what is misleading me and I am missing out on trades because of that. I might just do that if the zone is standing out like a sore thumb
Yeah, I also. Drawing trend lines makes me confuse as well.
I personally just continue with the trend till price reaches a htf opp. zone.
Like the 1hr uptrend remains up till price reaches the 4hr supply. When it does I wait for price to make a lower low to confirm a new down trend

But the issue I've is if price breaks the 4hr supply should I wait for price to get to a 4hr demand before buying again or can I just continue buying 1hr demand level since the 4hr supply didn't hold
  • #8,451
  • May 13, 2020 6:39pm May 13, 2020 6:39pm
Quoting Obiech
{quote} Yeah, I also. Drawing trend lines makes me confuse as well. I personally just continue with the trend till price reaches a htf opp. zone. Like the 1hr uptrend remains up till price reaches the 4hr supply. When it does I wait for price to make a lower low to confirm a new down trend But the issue I've is if price breaks the 4hr supply should I wait for price to get to a 4hr demand before buying again or can I just continue buying 1hr demand level since the 4hr supply didn't hold
Hi Obiech, there is also a possibility for the zone to be used as a flip zone. Usually, I just search for the next 4H Fresh zone so I can adjust my curve.
  • #8,452
  • May 14, 2020 4:06am May 14, 2020 4:06am
Hi Traders, just a quick question. Another request for clarification

What is more higher probability?

Trader = uses 4H as his highest time frame for Curve.

Scenario: 4H is in the downtrend, price just hit the demand level on the way down.

What action is better to take?

a) Shorts are not allowed because the price have hit the 4H demand. Higher probability is to wait for the opposing 4H zone to be hit?
b) 4H is in the clear downtrend. Is higher probability action to wait for the price to come back to 1H supply and take shorts, because of the 4H downtrend?
c) Wait for the 4H demand to be broken and then trade the 1H/15M supply zones?

Does the curve demand always take command in the price action in that scenario even if it's the downtrend on the same time frame?

Thank You
  • #8,453
  • May 14, 2020 4:20am May 14, 2020 4:20am
Sorry about English.

As Time Frame, The smaller time frame is turnning first, but it must follow Higher time frame orders. The problem of the Trend line from the smaller time frame is missleading the mind set to think that trend was changing.

As long as you have the good zone should be fine. For the safety just try to do the confrimation trade. or set forget.

This is my EJ chart. the blue area is from weekly demand zone and the price has respected the previous supply zone very well. and drop bit quick.
Due to lack experience of the trading, I could not explain the big green candle which highlighted on the chart. I will wait and see.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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@David with all respect, IMO jus feel your chart is full of zones. unless you willing to trade them, otherwise might not need to highlight all of the zones.

Regards,

Tie
  • #8,454
  • May 14, 2020 4:31am May 14, 2020 4:31am
Quoting DavidKl
Hi Traders, just a quick question. Another request for clarification What is more higher probability? Trader = uses 4H as his highest time frame for Curve. Scenario: 4H is in the downtrend, price just hit the demand level on the way down. What action is better to take? a) Shorts are not allowed because the price have hit the 4H demand. Higher probability is to wait for the opposing 4H zone to be hit? b) 4H is in the clear downtrend. Is higher probability action to wait for the price to come back to 1H supply and take shorts, because of the...

I think you need a solid trading plan and just follow it no matter right or wrong.

As you like trading on H1, I would like to find zones from Day chart and refine the zones in H4. as TP or SL, find pirce direction from H4, jump in the zone with same direction of H4 in H1. get off when you near to next zone. hope that could help.
  • #8,455
  • May 14, 2020 5:00am May 14, 2020 5:00am
Quoting wtjfree
{quote} I think you need a solid trading plan and just follow it no matter right or wrong. As you like trading on H1, I would like to find zones from Day chart and refine the zones in H4. as TP or SL, find pirce direction from H4, jump in the zone with same direction of H4 in H1. get off when you near to next zone. hope that could help.
Hi so you are not using the D1 as your curve TF? My main struggle is when you have the price in your D1 supply (as an example) but the trend on the D1 is up, would you still take the the longs on the 1H because the trend on the 4H is up and the daily is up and disregard the D1 supply (purely due to the fact that daily levels are being consumed)?

Thanks
  • #8,456
  • Edited 1:44pm May 14, 2020 1:13pm | Edited 1:44pm
Quoting DavidKl
{quote} Hi so you are not using the D1 as your curve TF? My main struggle is when you have the price in your D1 supply (as an example) but the trend on the D1 is up, would you still take the the longs on the 1H because the trend on the 4H is up and the daily is up and disregard the D1 supply (purely due to the fact that daily levels are being consumed)? Thanks
Hi so you are not using the D1 as your curve TF?

I am using Higher time frame's S&D zones as the trading start or ending point.
The answer is not sure. Maybe.

My main struggle is when you have the price in your D1 supply (as an example) but the trend on the D1 is up, would you still take the the longs on the 1H because the trend on the 4H is up and the daily is up and disregard the D1 supply (purely due to the fact that daily levels are being consumed)?

This is the big topic for answer yes or no. I would not take LONG form H1 trend to a D1 supply zone if the RR is less than 1:2. H1 trend should respect the D1's supply zone not all the time.

It just like giveway when you driving into main road from a path. same as you driving H1 TO D1.


For example EURCAD, We have current supply zone from H4.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This is same supply zone in H1, I put extra yellow line to refine the supply zone. see how the price respected zone.
There are Demand zones from H1 as screenshot for long trade, but only for RR 1:2.
I would trade No.2 and No.3Demand zones for long.
For long order from No.2 Demand zone, need think about the TP near the D1 or H4 supply zone.

Please have a look of No.2 demand zone it has been "covered" by your TL

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Hope it helps.

Green pips to All!
  • #8,457
  • May 15, 2020 1:43pm May 15, 2020 1:43pm
Hey traders, how is everyone?
Hopefully well.

Just popped in to say that the hardest part for me is still putting everything together in a plan I can trust and sticking to said plan.
Maybe we all have different struggles.

l am still trying.

Stay safe folks.

D.B.
  • #8,458
  • May 15, 2020 7:06pm May 15, 2020 7:06pm
Quoting D.B
Hey traders, how is everyone? Hopefully well. Just popped in to say that the hardest part for me is still putting everything together in a plan I can trust and sticking to said plan. Maybe we all have different struggles. l am still trying. Stay safe folks. D.B.

It was same for me
I suggest you write Down the plan
  • #8,459
  • May 16, 2020 2:24am May 16, 2020 2:24am
Quoting Obiech
{quote} It was same for me I suggest you write Down the plan
Thank you, I've already started writing the plan.
Putting together all necessary information.
Let's see what this next trading week brings for us.

D.B
  • #8,460
  • May 20, 2020 7:33pm May 20, 2020 7:33pm
Please can anyone clarify me
When trading the monthly weekly daily combo
If price is going up on the weekly and still low in the curve.
If price hits the weekly supply and breaks it. At what time should we consider buying

1..... price breaks the weekly supply. Should we wait for price to retrace back to a weekly demand before buying on the daily demands(what if price breaks the weekly supply and keep on railing) or can we start considering buying on all daily demands since the weekly supply has been talking out
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