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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #1,321
  • May 24, 2020 4:02am May 24, 2020 4:02am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} BTW I guess your NZ is gonna be among those countries benefiting the most under the circumstance given the overall future shortages in food supply...
I wish I was from NZ, i'm actually from Israel
  • #1,322
  • May 24, 2020 7:13am May 24, 2020 7:13am
Quoting bony16
{quote} I wish I was from NZ, i'm actually from Israel
yes, I know... sorry for that... that part I addressed to aquavox (https://www.forexfactory.com/aquavox) , but failed to mention... but you're a lucky guy also... good words from me may be addressed to your country as well...
  • #1,323
  • May 24, 2020 7:15am May 24, 2020 7:15am
Quoting eFFx168
{image}
a flat surface on the very top... thus can be penetrated but only briefly...
  • #1,324
  • May 25, 2020 6:35am May 25, 2020 6:35am
at this moment the best indicator of what is going to happen with European and US economies after the quarantines lifting is the Chinese situation... there is about a couple of month lag between them and the rest of the world... apparently their efforts to restart the economy have failed already... the are no V-shaped kind of recovery in sight... not even close to it... same can be expected elsewhere... the markets are currently approaching nice levels to short them all...
  • #1,325
  • May 25, 2020 6:47am May 25, 2020 6:47am
I will just put this here...
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  • #1,326
  • May 25, 2020 1:31pm May 25, 2020 1:31pm
Hi Igrok,

I have been following this thread since beginning, (much respect) looking for reversal confirmation, consequently i started shorting GBPUSD back in December, rode all way down to bottom, held on and have let it retrace quite a bit, still holding.. I said that to say thanks as this thread was one of the reasons i confirmed my bias before covid..
We are here now and getting a mixed feeling on whether or not to play the haven strategy on the next down leg.. All this manipulation has me a little skittish on the play at hand.. So my method is more like a grid trader in which i will build a position to my bias , hoping to keep getting better positions. Do you have any thoughts that dosent violate your edge?
  • #1,327
  • May 25, 2020 1:36pm May 25, 2020 1:36pm
Forgot to add I am currently builing a position short aud on usd and jpy ,, planning on shorts on audusd till 80 and short audjypy till 73.5, and recently have added to gbpusd. really neg bias on gbp,
  • #1,328
  • May 25, 2020 3:00pm May 25, 2020 3:00pm
Quoting aall77
Hi Igrok, I have been following this thread since beginning, (much respect) looking for reversal confirmation, consequently i started shorting GBPUSD back in December, rode all way down to bottom, held on and have let it retrace quite a bit, still holding.. I said that to say thanks as this thread was one of the reasons i confirmed my bias before covid.. We are here now and getting a mixed feeling on whether or not to play the haven strategy on the next down leg.. All this manipulation has me a little skittish on the play at hand.. So my method...
I'm a wrong person to evaluate someone else's trading strategies... also have never considered FX market as a good place for some kind of longer-term "investment opportunities"... to me it's a purely speculative and normally volatile market worth of taking longer-term positions with a planning horizon up to several months quite rarely and only at some point (or even zones) of bifurcation...at this moment I can't see any such an opportunity on any specific currency pair... btw on the longer run cable is likely to target 2.00 once again...
  • #1,329
  • May 25, 2020 4:26pm May 25, 2020 4:26pm
here is a symmetrical angle on the EUR/USD chart... the break is highly likely to occur to the downside...
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  • #1,330
  • May 26, 2020 2:53am May 26, 2020 2:53am
Hi Igor,

Out of curiosity, what's your view on the S&P in the near term? It's currently slightly above the 0.618 fib retracement level.
The market has been pushing higher. Do you think it's ready to finally reverse and start going down at this point? Or it's still got potential to go even higher?
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  • #1,331
  • Edited 5:15am May 26, 2020 5:05am | Edited 5:15am
Quoting saqotito
Hi Igor, Out of curiosity, what's your view on the S&P in the near term? It's currently slightly above the 0.618 fib retracement level. The market has been pushing higher. Do you think it's ready to finally reverse and start going down at this point? Or it's still got potential to go even higher? {image}
I never trade in assumptions and gut feelings... there must be some sort of trading signal coming in and a reliable place for stops nearby... I can't currently see any of that on S&P... futures on that look like topping out at these levels though but there is no signal yet to enter shorts.. might be later today we will see something...
  • #1,332
  • May 26, 2020 11:06am May 26, 2020 11:06am
looks like quite a happy market for such a dead economy...the eventual disappointment must be huge as soon as the reality gets realized...
  • #1,333
  • May 26, 2020 2:12pm May 26, 2020 2:12pm
Quoting Igrok
looks like quite a happy market for such a dead economy...the eventual disappointment must be huge as soon as the reality gets realized...
Quite a happy market indeed. This behavior is counterintuitive. I can't grasp any logic in it, it defies common sense.
The only reasonable explanation seems an intentional pump and dump.
  • #1,334
  • May 26, 2020 4:34pm May 26, 2020 4:34pm
Quoting saqotito
{quote} Quite a happy market indeed. This behavior is counterintuitive. I can't grasp any logic in it, it defies common sense. The only reasonable explanation seems an intentional pump and dump.
Of course I must take the other side and say it actually seems quite intuitive. The US economy was put to sleep not by a virus but by a leftist segment of government with full intentions of damaging capitalism with an eventual goal of phasing in an economy in line with that of the eurozone and based on "global-warming hysteria". It was a dry run in authoritarianism and even now is slow to being stamped out by the conservative liberty-freedom-capitalistic loving segment of society. The virus was just an excuse for leftists to exercise themselves. The economy was full steam ahead before the virus and the mechanisms that created the Trump economic boom still exist although awakening from an induced anesthesia. The US economy is already recovering. The indices are pricing in the future. I've been buying, buying and buying. My personal portfolio is on track to exceeding it's highs likely before the DOW recovers it's high. DOW 30000+!!!!!
Freedom is not free
  • #1,335
  • May 26, 2020 6:18pm May 26, 2020 6:18pm
"..As you've probably heard by now, sales don't matter, profits don't matter, costs don't matter, and indeed, nothing matters but the Fed has our back so buy stocks, never mind the valuations. In other words, the U.S. stock market has reached the spiritual level where the corporeal tangible world no longer matters: in a word, Nirvana, or Heaven if you prefer...

..If we set aside the satire and the absurd justifications of the financial punditry ( "we see a V-shaped recovery of profits in 2023, or was it in 2032? Never mind, doesn't matter..."), we discern a reality that should worry us: America's economy and financial system cannot allow the stock market to decline because any sustained drop will pop the debt-bubble and bring the entire rickety, rotten, corrupt structure down."

-C.H. Smith
  • #1,336
  • May 26, 2020 6:53pm May 26, 2020 6:53pm
Quoting eFFx168
"..As you've probably heard by now, sales don't matter, profits don't matter, costs don't matter, and indeed, nothing matters but the Fed has our back so buy stocks, never mind the valuations. In other words, the U.S. stock market has reached the spiritual level where the corporeal tangible world no longer matters: in a word, Nirvana, or Heaven if you prefer... ..If we set aside the satire and the absurd justifications of the financial punditry ( "we see a V-shaped recovery of profits in 2023, or was it in 2032? Never mind, doesn't matter..."),...
hahaha... if people somehow got convinced that they are immortal then who needs a healthcare?... right?... if there is FED then nobody needs to worry about any economic and financial failure on any level whether corporate or personal... only rights and no responsibilities...real communism has finally come to the land of the free...

current situation really scares me.. seems like the disaster is gonna be even worse than I hoped for...
  • #1,337
  • Edited 7:29pm May 26, 2020 7:03pm | Edited 7:29pm
Quoting Abe16
{quote} Of course I must take the other side and say it actually seems quite intuitive. The US economy was put to sleep not by a virus but by a leftist segment of government with full intentions of damaging capitalism with an eventual goal of phasing in an economy in line with that of the eurozone and based on "global-warming hysteria". It was a dry run in authoritarianism and even now is slow to being stamped out by the conservative liberty-freedom-capitalistic loving segment of society. The virus was just an excuse for leftists to exercise themselves....
you're just a freeloader cause after making some stupid, irresponsible and unjustified investment decisions, nonetheless you are getting bailed out at the expense of all the taxpayers, society in general and the very same "leftist segment of the government" you're criticizing so vigorously and with passion... also even bragging about it... in fact you're a real commie indeed... LOL...
  • #1,338
  • May 26, 2020 8:12pm May 26, 2020 8:12pm
Quoting saqotito
{quote} Quite a happy market indeed. This behavior is counterintuitive. I can't grasp any logic in it, it defies common sense. The only reasonable explanation seems an intentional pump and dump.
this is actually why I have decided to include in my new book (that I'm working on now) the chapter titled "Untimely death of Fundamental Analysis"...
  • #1,339
  • May 27, 2020 6:15am May 27, 2020 6:15am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} you're just a freeloader cause after making some stupid, irresponsible and unjustified investment decisions, nonetheless you are getting bailed out at the expense of all the taxpayers, society in general and the very same "leftist segment of the government" you're criticizing so vigorously and with passion... also even bragging about it... in fact you're a real commie indeed... LOL...
Guess I hit a nerve.

Freeloading is an interesting description of my investment approach. I'm one of those taxpayers and in a very high tax bracket. I'm the one assuming 100% of the risk with my investment decisions. If the US stock market tanks as you have predicted, no one will bail me out. I will suffer 100% of the loss. So in that respect I'm not freeloading. But I get what you're referring to. You think I'm freeloading because of my faith in the US economy which embraces capitalism in a free society and futhermore that the current economic recovery can be nothing short of fake and based on what is essentially a bail out with monopoly money. For the record I did not get one dime of the stimulus or any other monetary benefit of the virus. I agree the monopoly money aspect of this is concerning but I don't believe that is the primary reason the economy is rebounding even as the virus excuse begins to lose validity. The US economy will continue to rebound and completely recover because of the people of the US and their embracement of liberty and capitalism. So I am investing in that and the promise that the philosophical underpinnings of the US society will cause it to continue to prosper. If and when capitalism is replaced by socialism, and freedom/liberty is overcome by tyranny then the US stock market will in fact end as we know it today.

So if freedom/liberty and capitalism is the new communism then I'm guilty. LOL.
Freedom is not free
  • #1,340
  • May 27, 2020 7:33am May 27, 2020 7:33am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} ... current situation really scares me.. seems like the disaster is gonna be even worse than I hoped for...
What an odd thing to say....perhaps that is the underlying motive for all of this "The end of the US stock market is coming" rhetoric?....to persuade others to spread the word to maybe help it along?....
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