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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #1,301
  • May 19, 2020 1:57am May 19, 2020 1:57am
Quoting dieguito80
I bony..nice to meet u..one question...why this level?
Hi dieguito80,

this is the last major support and supply area got broken, you can see that price had tested that area from below, question is if it will hold.
  • #1,302
  • May 19, 2020 11:23am May 19, 2020 11:23am
Quoting dieguito80
io guys..i m following you from the begin of the discussion..very sharp and cleaver argoment..usefull also for the life in general..i was agree perfectly with sir igrok when he calle the discussion 'the end of the stock martket'..but i m not sure about it any more..my mind started to change ..couse i think that the fed soon or later will acept negative interest rate...and that s why the only place were park the money it will be te equity market...and in this case i will apreciate what sir igrok think about that..if he still thinking that the market...
from my perspective nothing lasts forever and whatever was thrown up will eventually come down... the higher it goes - the lower it will drop... in our case the entire virus story looks like a "force majeure" kind of an excuse for the markets to decline... however to me it's quite obvious that if no virus then it would've been something else because of the real economic crisis that actually started long time ago... at least back in 2008... though initially it was addressed with unprecedented bailing out of the world economy, the problem was cosmetically disguised and swept under the rug for a while... meantime nothing has changed to the better really... current (or rather previous already) economic model based on permanent consumption growth has ran out of gas as financial capital is no longer capable of reproducing itself...

as we all can see now the markets totally ignore incoming economic data while lots of commentators compare the outcome of the pandemic to great depression or WWII consequences... it doesn't make sense whatsoever when the markets and people in general are so desperate for getting good news in terms of some sort of vaccine being developed and quarantines lifted... everyone is looking for a slightest ray of light at the end of the tunnel and don't care about anything else... therefore the real problem will emerge after pandemic is over but all of a sudden people realize that there is no way back to normal lives and no economic recovery is possible... this will be the moment when a rear desperation and panic will hit the market to bring it down where it belongs to...
  • #1,303
  • May 19, 2020 1:11pm May 19, 2020 1:11pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} from my perspective nothing lasts forever and whatever was thrown up will eventually come down... the higher it goes - the lower it will drop... in our case the entire virus story looks like a "force majeure" kind of an excuse for the markets to decline... however to me it's quite obvious that if no virus then it would've been something else because of the real economic crisis that actually started long time ago... at least back in 2008... though initially it was addressed with unprecedented bailing out of the world economy, the problem...
I totally agree... the only question is how bad it will be? Will it be like 1929 or worse
  • #1,304
  • Edited 11:49pm May 19, 2020 11:35pm | Edited 11:49pm
Quoting bony16
{quote} I totally agree... the only question is how bad it will be? Will it be like 1929 or worse
not better for sure and regardless of anything...

for the moment the key question would be about who is gonna win the next US presidential election... if Trump wins, then the way to "new Yalta" will be open and the process of organizing a new world order will speed up... the winners over "liberal globalism" such as US (Trump), China (Xi), Russia (Putin) and India (whoever will be in charge at the time) will get together to make an agreement about "zones of influence"... some other countries should be given choice which zone to join, while others will not be even asked about their own wills...of course, it's not gonna cancel economic hardship worldwide, which is inevitable in any case, but nonetheless should guarantee more or less peaceful way of transition and reforming the world economy also simultaneously changing some of its basic principles... if Trump loses, then all the bets are off, because "Biden & Co" will continue doing the same thing that has already led to current crisis and there will be a guaranteed economic disaster of biblical proportions inside the US... quite likely already ongoing "cold civil war" within American society will turn into the hot phase and perhaps WWIII will also take place...
  • #1,305
  • May 20, 2020 5:05am May 20, 2020 5:05am
so it is inevitable no matter what..

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  • #1,306
  • May 20, 2020 9:57am May 20, 2020 9:57am
This is funny as hell
https://youtu.be/Y2FwGIgLvV8
  • #1,307
  • May 20, 2020 1:21pm May 20, 2020 1:21pm
https://youtu.be/KLODGhEyLvk
  • #1,308
  • Edited 6:13pm May 20, 2020 6:02pm | Edited 6:13pm
Quoting Argo
https://youtu.be/KLODGhEyLvk
that just shows how common sense has become extremely uncommon nowadays... the guy is talking obvious things and from the audience reaction it looks like he is making some sort of great scientific discovery every time he points out at some commonplace stuff that under normal circumstance should be taken for granted... same thing is with the market now... it's quite apparent that consumption based economic model has come to the end, but people just refuse to accept the inevitable... have never seen such a irrational mass behavior when the whole crowd psychologically lost their touch with reality so completely... the markets are turning into some sort of a zombieland..
  • #1,309
  • May 20, 2020 6:18pm May 20, 2020 6:18pm
meanwhile the markets are about to offer some good shorting opportunities... this line on NIKKEI futures makes perfect sense and might become a strong resistance thus capping this Japanese index from further recovery and its correction extension...
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  • #1,310
  • May 20, 2020 6:23pm May 20, 2020 6:23pm
though on this chart it hasn't even been reached yet...
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  • #1,311
  • May 20, 2020 6:43pm May 20, 2020 6:43pm
I know I've been a bit argumentative in the past and I don't wish to be at this time but rather express my opinion respectfully in this thread. Without waxing to religious I do believe prophecy will prevail and all economies will eventually fail...enough said on that particular topic.

With the US being the dominant economic global power it's failure would essentially cause all economies to fail. Make no mistake, every economy is dependent on the US economy. At this time the US is firmly in control of itself and not likely to submit to global control of any kind. Trump has made this clear and will continue to ensure the US controls it's own destiny.

Despite the current pandemic, US consumptive demand is ramping up again. It has only been temporarily suppressed by the virus. The truth about the exaggeration of this virus is being revealed and will largely be dismissed leading to a US economic rebound never seen before. Even now the US indices are pricing in this future explosion. Freedom, liberty and the right to happiness in the US is very powerful. No other country has these rights guaranteed in their constitutions like the US does. No other country is governed by it's people rather than its government and this ultimately will prevail in the US causing the US economy to once again prosper.

That being said I have continued to buy into this temporary economic downturn from an investment perspective. I personally incurred a 20% decrease in my portfolio's value at it's nadir but now I am down <10% due to continued buying.

I agree the US stock market will eventually come to an end as all markets will at some point but for now I will keep buying the US.
Freedom is not free
  • #1,312
  • Edited 11:07pm May 20, 2020 10:56pm | Edited 11:07pm
Quoting Abe16
I know I've been a bit argumentative in the past and I don't wish to be at this time but rather express my opinion respectfully in this thread. Without waxing to religious I do believe prophecy will prevail and all economies will eventually fail...enough said on that particular topic. With the US being the dominant economic global power it's failure would essentially cause all economies to fail. Make no mistake, every economy is dependent on the US economy. At this time the US is firmly in control of itself and not likely to submit to global control...
unlike in Hollywood movies, in real life even good guys die in battles when there are no more bullets left and their gun's hammers are only capable of producing that odd clicking sound by dry firing... the very same reasoning of yours was unable to prevent the Great Depression back then and is not gonna be able to brash out yet another one now or in the near future... what could happen more than 90 years ago, when the US economy was largely based on production and not just consumption as it is now, and the financial capital share in it wasn't exceeding even 5% (compared to today's over 50%, which is the even split with the industrial one) can also certainly and quite easily take place now... to me it's quite obvious that the consumption based Reaganomics model has exhausted itself and no more tools and resources has left to support it further and indefinitely...
  • #1,313
  • Edited 7:15am May 21, 2020 12:44am | Edited 7:15am
Remembering that it was only through the extent of huge physical production that Germany pulled it self out of the inflationary depression it was quagmired in after the first world war and likewise after the Second , with Japan following suit with the latter as well.
That was real product creation to meet the expanding consumerism in both cases, as well a creating a huge war chest from nothing - hence the innovation and surge in technology which is still influencing us 80 years later !

We have no such equivalent in today's world ?, do we ? the AI, Tech and Alt energy horses of the Apocalypse have long since bolted out the stable door.
The savvy readers of this forum will know who financed Germany ( and Japan ) out of their hyper/ and De /flationary situations ?

so ask yourself now, who stands to gain from the current situation by financing the debtor super nations ( note i didn't use "powers" ) out of their predicament?

digital (fiat) currency creates a vacuum , a 'dark' off balance space that needs to be filled , one way or another ?
i do like looking into the dark spaces where no-one wants to report or talk about in the 'news' - fake or true :-)
Old Dog Kiwi
  • #1,314
  • Edited 7:17am May 21, 2020 5:59am | Edited 7:17am
I think it's the end of globalization...

US can support itself (meaning, they don't need to import anything from other countries), the rest of the world don't have that option...

I think that global economy may fail and maybe we will start to see inflation and even hyperinflation, this will cause a spike in interest rate which will be the final end game due to massive worldwide debt

  • #1,315
  • May 21, 2020 9:50pm May 21, 2020 9:50pm
Quoting bony16
I think it's the end of globalization... US can support itself (meaning, they don't need to import anything from other countries), the rest of the world don't have that option... I think that global economy may fail and maybe we will start to see inflation and even hyperinflation, this will cause a spike in interest rate which will be the final end game due to massive worldwide debt
splitting the world economy into some regional economic zones perhaps would be the best solution for current problems... though years of a huge decline in incomes and the quality of life in general as well as some kinds of hardship of unpredictable proportions are on the cards...
BTW I guess your NZ is gonna be among those countries benefiting the most under the circumstance given the overall future shortages in food supply... that's a great country of yours... I had some business there in Auckland for a while and was even offered a permanent residency almost 30 years ago... nice memories...
  • #1,316
  • May 22, 2020 3:10am May 22, 2020 3:10am
[quote = bony16; 12948980] {quote} Ciao dieguito80, questa è l'ultima area di supporto e fornitura che si è rotta, puoi vedere che il prezzo ha testato quell'area dal basso, la domanda è se reggerà. [/ quote]
Thank s man
  • #1,317
  • May 22, 2020 2:55pm May 22, 2020 2:55pm
https://youtu.be/AtYt8Z4tOCk
  • #1,318
  • May 23, 2020 8:37am May 23, 2020 8:37am
Quoting bony16
https://youtu.be/AtYt8Z4tOCk
I wish I was always as smart before as my wife is after...
  • #1,319
  • May 23, 2020 9:34am May 23, 2020 9:34am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} I wish I was always as smart before as my wife is after...
  • #1,320
  • May 23, 2020 9:00pm May 23, 2020 9:00pm
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