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Breakout Strategy - The Pro's Way

  • #101
  • Oct 27, 2006 8:32pm Oct 27, 2006 8:32pm
I would love to have a indictor for MT4 that would let me draw a trend line and signal a alert if it is broken, does anyone have anything like that?

Many thanks

DD
  • #102
  • Oct 27, 2006 9:53pm Oct 27, 2006 9:53pm
Digitaldean,

I have been trading off the 15 minutes chart for a good few months now and am able to achieve between 80-90% strike rate. I mentioned earlier that I have just recently started physically writing a trading journal at the end of everyday and I was going to post my results so here are my results for the last three weeks.

Please bare n mind I trade 2 lots so unless other wise stated I made X pips per lot.

9/10 : 20 pips
10/10 : 20 pips and 100 pips
11/10 : -15 pips
12/10: No Trade
13/10: No Trade
16/10: 20 pips 0 pips
17/10: 20 pips 0 pips
18/10: 10 pips
19/10: 20 pips 41 pips
20/10: 10 pips 15 pips
23/10: 20 pips 50 pips
24/10: -30 pips
25/10: No Trade
26/10: 20 Pips 60 Pips
27/10: 20 pips

Total for the last three weeks = 386 pips including deduction for spread
Strike Rate = 83.3%
  • #103
  • Oct 27, 2006 11:01pm Oct 27, 2006 11:01pm
Quoting Micardo
Digitaldean,

I have been trading off the 15 minutes chart for a good few months now and am able to achieve between 80-90% strike rate. I mentioned earlier that I have just recently started physically writing a trading journal at the end of everyday and I was going to post my results so here are my results for the last three weeks.

Please bare n mind I trade 2 lots so unless other wise stated I made X pips per lot.

9/10 : 20 pips
10/10 : 20 pips and 100 pips
11/10 : -15 pips
12/10: No Trade
13/10: No Trade
16/10: 20 pips 0 pips
17/10: 20 pips 0 pips
18/10: 10 pips
19/10: 20 pips 41 pips
20/10: 10 pips 15 pips
23/10: 20 pips 50 pips
24/10: -30 pips
25/10: No Trade
26/10: 20 Pips 60 Pips
27/10: 20 pips

Total for the last three weeks = 386 pips including deduction for spread
Strike Rate = 83.3%
Thats awsome, you seem to have a great system that works for you!

I am going to carry on trading trend line and support and resistance (naked trading) and see how i go.

Good luck for next weeks trading

DD
  • #104
  • Oct 29, 2006 7:52pm Oct 29, 2006 7:52pm
OK I have decided that I would make my months end on the last friday... So here is a summary of my first month as a disciplined trader.....

It was a very positive first month for me, as you can see in previous posts my results. But what about my lessons, what about what I learnt.

Well I learnt quite a few things this month, I made a few mistakes but they are al things I can learn from. So here are my lessons of the month.

1. Don't make up trades... What I mean by this is sometimes I am tempted to put support or resistance lines in just for the sake of it, just so I have a reason to trade. This can lead to lots of problems... trading the wrong setups, over trading but the most important thing for me is the fact that when I enter a trade on such lines I always have that feeling in the back of my head that I did something wrong or I could be wrong, which as you all know are the worst things psychologically you can experience. So to avoid these thoughts I simply only trade setups which I am totally confident on, Loss of Opportunity is better than loss of capital right.

2. The other main thing that I learnt was to look at longer term levels... I usually only pick levels that occurred during the Asian session... I found that one of my losses last month could of been avoided if I took levels from a few days or weeks ago into consideration.

Anyway these are my thoughts on my first month and am looking forward to my second month.... Hopefully I can have another good month.... Hopefully this isn't beginners luck :
  • #105
  • Oct 29, 2006 8:30pm Oct 29, 2006 8:30pm
Quoting Micardo

1. Don't make up trades... What I mean by this is sometimes I am tempted to put support or resistance lines in just for the sake of it, just so I have a reason to trade. This can lead to lots of problems... trading the wrong setups, over trading but the most important thing for me is the fact that when I enter a trade on such lines I always have that feeling in the back of my head that I did something wrong or I could be wrong, which as you all know are the worst things psychologically you can experience. So to avoid these thoughts I simply only trade setups which I am totally confident on, Loss of Opportunity is better than loss of capital right.
Hey Micardo,
I know what you mean, i found i was doing the same thing with the trendlines. Sometimes i could find a trendline anywhere lol

DD
  • #106
  • Oct 30, 2006 9:10pm Oct 30, 2006 9:10pm
Ok heres a quick update for mondays trades... It was a kind of slo start and the levels kept having to be adjusted but eventually a nice little double top formed on the 15 min cable chart and within half an hour all my rules fell into place..... I entered and took 20 pips profit on the first lot, left the 2nd lot in and a few minutes before the news I moved the stop to within 5 points and soon got stopped out at 20 15 points profit.

So I made 20 pips and 15 pips.
  • #107
  • Oct 30, 2006 9:28pm Oct 30, 2006 9:28pm
hi micardo, nice thread
just wondering if u could post some charts with your typical breakout trades, a few different setups.

regards
  • #108
  • Oct 30, 2006 10:06pm Oct 30, 2006 10:06pm
Hey Westie,

No Problem I'll do that..... Could you give me a day or two though so i can put adequate explanation with each one.

How long have you been trading? Do you trade the same way?
  • #109
  • Oct 30, 2006 11:58pm Oct 30, 2006 11:58pm
hi micardo, im very new, still demo mode, I'm still figuring out whats best for me, so far I like this and your daily method, also james price action, no rush with those charts, thanks for doing that.

westie.
  • #110
  • Oct 31, 2006 3:29am Oct 31, 2006 3:29am
Quoting kjellik74
I but a EA would solve that problem. Appreciate your comments,
can you please post your EA, I like it most
  • #111
  • Oct 31, 2006 4:55am Oct 31, 2006 4:55am
Nasir....

I'm sorry I don't know how to program EA's.... but I will put alot of eplanation with the charts :-). I'll try and get them done by tonight.
  • #112
  • Oct 31, 2006 7:45am Oct 31, 2006 7:45am
OK Today i'm going to call it a day with regards to looking for that breakout trade... For me it is just to erratic to be able to see any sort of a logical setup. The market has been in a 70 pip range all day and with non farm coming up at the end of this week I just can't see it breaking today.


I might be wrong but to be honest if I were top enter a trade under these conditions I just wouldn't be confident and hence would make stupid decisions.

Better luck tomorrow!!

In the mean time i'll start getting those charts ready for you guys to see
  • #113
  • Oct 31, 2006 8:23am Oct 31, 2006 8:23am
Hi,

To try and find the difference between successful and unsuccessful traders, you might want to be advised by the following link: {link removed, see rule #2}
This one will also give you a chance to try and trade on a practice account which is no different from the real live trading, only with virtual money.
good luck!
  • #114
  • Oct 31, 2006 9:53am Oct 31, 2006 9:53am
Just a quick update.... There was a break today which did line up with my rules and I would of made profit had I entered, but as i said earlier I just didn't feel confident about today.

I completely overlooked tha fact that there was news out today... Had I taken note of that fact then I possible would of waited til that news release at least as often news is the catalyst that causes the breakout.

Oh well you live and learn everyday.... isn't hindsight a beautiful thing
  • #115
  • Oct 31, 2006 11:20pm Oct 31, 2006 11:20pm
Hey Micardo,

This is a very helpful and informative thread. Thanks to all the contributors, specially liz and Akuma and yourself.
Do anyone here uses "4 hour trendline" method alone? how is the success ratio?
  • #116
  • Nov 1, 2006 12:45am Nov 1, 2006 12:45am
Quoting Micardo
Nasir....

I'm sorry I don't know how to program EA's.... but I will put alot of eplanation with the charts :-). I'll try and get them done by tonight.
Thanks

Nasir
  • #117
  • Nov 1, 2006 11:52am Nov 1, 2006 11:52am
Ok today for me was another quiet day. Last night when I looked at the setup it seemed to be developing a nice flag type setup. This morning when I woke we were still pretty much on. Hoever we just didn't get the break.

I thought the ISM would provide the catalyst for the day... It did move the market but it just wasn't persistent enough and did sustain the move.

I am thinking that the rest of this week might prove to be thin... everyone is probably waiting for the non-farm payrole on Friday.

I won't sit the rest of the week out but I will definitely be more cautious when entering a trade with all of this in mind.

Anybody else got any thoughts
  • #118
  • Nov 1, 2006 11:54am Nov 1, 2006 11:54am
yes my thoughts are the same... i managed not to get killed by moving my stop to BE after the bull flag run up to 9140 level... i knew i was in a high risk trade... price is tooo over bought when this thing drops its gonna be hard and fast... over the long term it could go much higher but historically were at previous resistance zones and history tends to repeat itself... ';-)
  • #119
  • Nov 2, 2006 8:05am Nov 2, 2006 8:05am
Today pretty much looks like its gonna be another thin day. I guess the markets really aren't going to do anything now until the NFP.

There are a few releases later today but I doubt they will have enough momentum to constitute an entry.

So I guess we'll just be sitting this week out. I still haven't decided whether or Not I will trade the Non-Farm Payrole as last month proved really tricky what with the revision and everything. In fact whilst we are on that subject could somebody provide some insight as to what number is more important - The actual number or the revision? Was last month an anomily?

Guys regarding your charts I will have them done by later today.... I promise
  • #120
  • Nov 4, 2006 1:17pm Nov 4, 2006 1:17pm
hello traders
I see people here sharing very nice ideas on this thread, and I want to ask -
there is a button line? there is any sharp conclusion from this discussion?
I suggest that someone will summarize those great ideas, and than we will be able to create a new strategy\ies and to back-check them.
there is a volunteer?
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