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Forex is random

  • #521
  • May 15, 2020 7:52am May 15, 2020 7:52am
I was under the impression the market moves to transact.

Clusters of sitting orders can be both stops and a variety of pending orders.if you are a stop I guess the feeling of being hunted is better than the feeling of lack of knowledge .

The market is like a Hoover,collecting everything in its path.its behaving as it's supposed to.

The art is trading within and with the Hoover.not sitting in front of it
  • #522
  • May 15, 2020 8:20am May 15, 2020 8:20am
Quoting Mingary
What is perceived as stop hunting is this: The market will invariably move in the direction that causes the greatest financial damage to the largest number of accounts. This is the essence of any price move, more losers that winners is what drives a price move.
This does not exist.
As long as you continue to trade in the long run regardless of what you do will only long lose the spread assuming you are gambling and have no edge.
  • #523
  • May 15, 2020 8:21am May 15, 2020 8:21am
Quoting diceman555
I was under the impression the market moves to transact. Clusters of sitting orders can be both stops and a variety of pending orders.if you are a stop I guess the feeling of being hunted is better than the feeling of lack of knowledge . The market is like a Hoover,collecting everything in its path.its behaving as it's supposed to. The art is trading within and with the Hoover.not sitting in front of it
Hi Diceman

In a sense I feel you are correct except stop losses would be the bulk of the retail traders limit orders. The problem is the big players place our orders into the end of a queue rated by importance. When price rolls into a liquidity pool of orders, it starts transacting at the bottom of the queue amongst themselves first then selects the orders which favour their financial advantage next then finally getting to our limit orders if it suits them or they have no choice.
I can tell you that if you place a limit order just above price but within the spread, you have a 50% of them opening your position if it favours you and 100% chance of them opening your position if it favours them. I deal with this issue on a daily basic trading on the 1 minute chart.
It got so bad, I stopped using limit orders because I was missing too many great positions.
The question needs to be asked is it our brokers playing games or the big players.

Read Micha's thread at "The Equilibrium, a key to success! where he tells a similar story.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #524
  • May 15, 2020 8:23am May 15, 2020 8:23am
Quoting RickM
{quote} You need to study not the ballistic action that goes both ways, only study the speed against the trend. So you are looking at reversal speed. Sometimes they need to tackle price on two to three candles to get their reversal wish. I was watching EURUSD on M1, saw the action and did make quite a few pips so I do trade in real time. I posted that screen shot only 10 minutes after it occurred - AS YOU ASKED FOR - Still, I am not claiming you can sit there, wait for that tick reversal speed, and trade without losing. Many times it is not clear...

"I only notice it on a small nondescript candle often around a turning point. Look where you don't expect."

Heavy tick activity on a nondescript candle ..

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  • #525
  • May 15, 2020 8:25am May 15, 2020 8:25am
Quoting Mingary
What is perceived as stop hunting is this: The market will invariably move in the direction that causes the greatest financial damage to the largest number of accounts. This is the essence of any price move, more losers that winners is what drives a price move.
100%

Spoken by a wise man
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #526
  • May 15, 2020 8:35am May 15, 2020 8:35am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} "I only notice it on a small nondescript candle often around a turning point. Look where you don't expect." Heavy tick activity on a nondescript candle .. {image} {image}
As I am not on my tick charts at present, I can't comment. However you are around the area I would expect to see the manipulation I talk about.
Its just my opinion of course.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #527
  • May 15, 2020 8:41am May 15, 2020 8:41am
Quoting RickM
{quote} 100% Spoken by a wise man
More winners than losers are what cause the move xD, how can such basic concept people get wrong.
Price move because of MORE money flowing in one direction.
The only reason retails lose any money at all is because of the commission.
If there were no commission retails would never blow their account.
Therefore unless your broker is a bucket shop stop hunt is impossible.
  • #528
  • May 15, 2020 8:44am May 15, 2020 8:44am
Quoting RickM
{quote} As I am not on my tick charts at present, I can't comment. However you are around the area I would expect to see the manipulation I talk about. Its just my opinion of course.
"There is something hidden in them there hills" (:
(first pic was a bit late)

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  • #529
  • May 15, 2020 8:49am May 15, 2020 8:49am
Quoting Mingary
What is perceived as stop hunting is this: The market will invariably move in the direction that causes the greatest financial damage to the largest number of accounts. This is the essence of any price move, more losers than winners is what drives a price move.
Even IF this is true, which it isn't, this would only prove that markets are in fact not random. In this scenario all a winner must do is identify what the losers are doing and do the exact opposite.

The truth is though, that the reason why most people lose money trading Forex has nothing to do with the market maker, or stop hunts, but 100% has to do with human psychology. People are bad at trading markets, and the market exploits most of those people overtime.

In order to succeed you have to be able to think outside of the box, and be different enough to extract a profit, and manage your money better than most people.
  • #530
  • May 15, 2020 8:53am May 15, 2020 8:53am
Quoting viptrading
{quote} Even IF this is true, which it isn't, this would only prove that markets are in fact not random. In this scenario all a winner must do is identify what the losers are doing and do the exact opposite. The truth is though, that the reason why most people lose money trading Forex has nothing to do with the market maker, or stop hunts, but 100% has to do with human psychology. People are bad at trading markets, and the market exploits most of those people overtime. In order to succeed you have to be able to think outside of the box, and be different...
Of course markets are not random, someone has a purpose to push the trade button. We just don't know what that reason is - but the reason did exist.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #531
  • May 15, 2020 8:59am May 15, 2020 8:59am
Quoting AmmaBoss
{quote} More winners than losers are what cause the move xD, how can such basic concept people get wrong. Price move because of MORE money flowing in one direction. The only reason retails lose any money at all is because of the commission. If there were no commission retails would never blow their account. Therefore unless your broker is a bucket shop stop hunt is impossible.
Its a Auction.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #532
  • Edited 9:19am May 15, 2020 9:07am | Edited 9:19am
Quoting viptrading
{quote} Even IF this is true, which it isn't, this would only prove that markets are in fact not random. In this scenario all a winner must do is identify what the losers are doing and do the exact opposite. The truth is though, that the reason why most people lose money trading Forex has nothing to do with the market maker, or stop hunts, but 100% has to do with human psychology. People are bad at trading markets, and the market exploits most of those people overtime. In order to succeed you have to be able to think outside of the box, and be different...
Retail traders, aka the crowd, aka the herd, aka the majority tends to take profit quickly and let the losers run.

Re: "Even IF this is true, which it isn't". This true statement above should able you to work out why this statement is true (and a lot more) ==>

" The market will invariably move in the direction that causes the greatest financial damage to the largest number of accounts. This is the essence of any price move. More losers than winners is what drives a price move."
  • #533
  • May 15, 2020 9:24am May 15, 2020 9:24am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Retail traders, aka the crowd, aka the herd, aka the majority tends to take profit quickly and let the losers run. Re: "Even IF this is true, which it isn't". This true statement above should able you to work out why this statement is true (and a lot more) ==> " The market will invariably move in the direction that causes the greatest financial damage to the largest number of accounts. This is the essence of any price move. More losers than winners is what drives a price move."
I see you are on your pulpit again. What has your post to do with the subject of the thread? We know most retail traders lose. We also know most do not ruin their lives and then preach about it boringly and endlessly.

Have a great weekend, everyone.
Gone to a better place
  • #534
  • May 15, 2020 9:36am May 15, 2020 9:36am
Quoting smikester
{quote} I see you are on your pulpit again. What has your post to do with the subject of the thread? We know most retail traders lose. We also know most do not ruin their lives and then preach about it boringly and endlessly. Have a great weekend, everyone.
Did someone eat your lunch again today ?
Who knows, perhaps one of your leads read one of my posts and decided not to open an account or not buy some crap forex product ?
"We know most retail traders lose"
Not the case here... apparently everyone here is a retail forex millionaire ... or soon to be.
Which is of course the whole idea if we want to attract those much needed new accounts ...
We do want the losers to lose and be quiet about it. Now imagine if they all had a story to tell... that would be the end of retail forex and a foreclosure on your house..
  • #535
  • May 15, 2020 9:39am May 15, 2020 9:39am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Did someone eat your lunch again today ? Who knows, perhaps one of your leads read one of my posts and decided not to open an account or not buy some crap forex product ? "We know most retail traders lose" Not the case here... apparently everyone here is a retail forex millionaire ... or soon to be. Which is of course the whole idea if we want to attract those much needed new accounts ... We do want the losers to lose and be quiet about it. Now imagine if they all had a story to tell... that would be the end of retail forex and a foreclosure...
Yes, I ate my lunch. I'm perfectly happy to take you on every time you go off topic and start preaching from the point of view of someone who failed so badly in forex they can not get over it.

And I have made money this year, using a retail forex broker of my choice.
Gone to a better place
  • #536
  • May 15, 2020 9:42am May 15, 2020 9:42am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Did someone eat your lunch again today ? Who knows, perhaps one of your leads read one of my posts and decided not to open an account or not buy some crap forex product ? "We know most retail traders lose" Not the case here... apparently everyone here is a retail forex millionaire ... or soon to be. Which is of course the whole idea if we want to attract those much needed new accounts ... We do want the losers to lose and be quiet about it. Now imagine if they all had a story to tell... that would be the end of retail forex and a foreclosure...
Do you really think I work in the industry? You are truly delusional.
Gone to a better place
  • #537
  • May 15, 2020 9:43am May 15, 2020 9:43am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Its a Auction.
From you last few posts, I can only say well done! There is intent and design in the forex market, but the challenge for retail traders is to recognize the intent and design, and then build a narrative or trading process around that recognition. Of course, sometimes something happens outside our understanding, and our challenge then is to learn to deal with the unexpected, rather than blame the unexpected on some malice in the market intent on hurting you. Sometime, shit happens. Move on. I sounds like you've got a nice process in place. All the best and good trading to you.
  • #538
  • May 15, 2020 9:50am May 15, 2020 9:50am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Do you really think I work in the industry? You are truly delusional.
This is his MO. If you have a positive attitude about the forex and your trading, you are a member of the forex industry, with some mysterious link to other peoples miserly. It's bazar, and he is lying, but what can you do other than point it out. His ultimate plan is to make you pay after his magical recovery fund is enacted by the CFTC and you are required to pay into this fund. He has lost his freaking mind!
  • #539
  • May 15, 2020 3:29pm May 15, 2020 3:29pm
Do you people know why the Paul Tudor Jones and Warren Buffett and all the other great traders you read about in books don't participate on FF and other such sites? It's not that they don't know FF exists because they do.
It's simply that winners tend to hang out with winners and they don't care about the opinions of losers(or their stops). In other words 'A lion doesn't concern himself with the opinions of sheep'.
Have a great weekend ladies.
  • #540
  • May 15, 2020 3:35pm May 15, 2020 3:35pm
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