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2020

  • #61
  • May 7, 2020 12:09pm May 7, 2020 12:09pm
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //---- hey tc..... yes..... and that was how i had to readjust my thinking.... i pretty much trade by numbers..... it's the basis of the thread what follows a red 14..... the numbers are derived from the charts so there is no need for me to look at the chart..... ea's scan the numbers and pn me when needed so there's no need to look at the ea's..... my preference is just to take a daily signal in the direction of the weekly trend and just throw...
Hayseed, read through those posts. Was that to say your basic reasoning is through studying the propensity for a given indicator flip to continue (for example, a TSR flip averaged 7 consecutive daily bars of continuation) you would place your potential entries with the confidence that odds have told you that the following days are more than likely to continue? Naturally until they don't and the signal changes?
  • #62
  • May 7, 2020 4:19pm May 7, 2020 4:19pm
Quoting tradeChaser
Was that to say your basic reasoning is through studying the propensity for a given indicator flip to continue (for example, a TSR flip averaged 7 consecutive daily bars of continuation) you would place your potential entries with the confidence that odds have told you that the following days are more than likely to continue? Naturally until they don't and the signal changes?
//-----

hey tc.... yes, somewhat that is the basis..... it's kinda hard for me to explain in depth.... would have to read that thread to remember what i posted in it....

if using metastock to optimize a 2 moving average system, the optimum values might be (7 and 40) for instance based on 10,000 stocks..... this once made me think that (8 and 40) or (7 and 41) would have at least close results..... after all we only varied the moving averages a minor amount.... results seldom are near the same....

what i've done with metatrader is take every reasonable indicator known to me and calculate it's signal length and frequency..... on every pair and every timeframe 5 minute and up.....

if ploting them all out in a bar by bar manner you can see the most consistent..... monitoring the count of those filters the trades....

but it works best in the manner you described, steps within steps...... a perfect real time example is the nzdusd alma/tsr cross.... a truly valid signal that is being over ridden by the weekly chart.....

when the weekly and daily are in sync down, with the last zigzag leg up, most lower timeframe sell signals seem to have a higher win rate.....

i'll post some chart examples later..... it's kinda hard to explain.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #63
  • May 7, 2020 4:35pm May 7, 2020 4:35pm
Quoting cdk1212
Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
//----

hey cdk..... yep some real big farms in missouri..... we come the hill people in wayne county......

been to calgary many times.... edmonton..... peace river..... all the way to great slave lake in north west territories....

keep saying we're going to drive all the way to fairbanks....

the one thing i'll never forget is that there is no trash on the roads.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #64
  • May 8, 2020 2:16am May 8, 2020 2:16am
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //---- hey sky.... that's 'end of week'...... all trades must be closed well before close of market friday, or last trading day of the week.... any open trades over the weekend and your shown the exit door ..... course not holding trades over the weekend is widely suggested by many professional traders..... i'm kinda on the fence.....h
Thanks
With that condition gone it will be easy to meet their requirements?
l heard about audacity fx or so anyone with any experience with them?
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #65
  • May 8, 2020 9:26am May 8, 2020 9:26am
Quoting skyf
{quote} Thanks With that condition gone it will be easy to meet their requirements? l heard about audacity fx or so anyone with any experience with them?
//-----

hey sky....... lol..... easy?.....lol.....

even with the eow rule gone it would not be easy..... don't let anyone, including me, suggest to you otherwise.... doubling your forex account is not an easy task.....

having to double your account twice in a reasonable amount of time is considerably more difficult.....

timing is the key.... the end of week rule makes timing even more crucial.....

first you must have some sort of entry followed by a rough idea of how long the trade will run......

that length of run was the basis for the thread , 'whats your average trade length'......

a perfect entry signal on 3pm friday is almost worthless if your average trade length is 12 hours..... with the eow rule, that is.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #66
  • May 10, 2020 4:19pm May 10, 2020 4:19pm
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //----- hey sky....... lol..... easy?.....lol..... even with the eow rule gone it would not be easy..... don't let anyone, including me, suggest to you otherwise.... doubling your forex account is not an easy task..... having to double your account twice in a reasonable amount of time is considerably more difficult..... timing is the key.... the end of week rule makes timing even more crucial..... first you must have some sort of entry followed by a rough idea of how long the trade will run...... that length of run was the basis for the...
Does one need to double his acc in ftmo or topstep?
I thought its 10% a month without losing upto 10% they require?
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #67
  • May 10, 2020 10:26pm May 10, 2020 10:26pm
Quoting skyf
{quote} Does one need to double his acc in ftmo or topstep? I thought its 10% a month without losing upto 10% they require?
//---

hey sky..... not sure about ftmo..... have had no dealings with them.....

topstep requires you to double 2 separate accounts.... in step 1 you must double the account before losing 2000..... in the second account, step 2, you must double it before losing 1000.....

would be wise to try it first in a free demo..... this would give you a feel for what you'd be up against.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #68
  • May 11, 2020 12:24pm May 11, 2020 12:24pm
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //----- hey sky....... lol..... easy?.....lol..... even with the eow rule gone it would not be easy..... don't let anyone, including me, suggest to you otherwise.... doubling your forex account is not an easy task..... having to double your account twice in a reasonable amount of time is considerably more difficult..... timing is the key.... the end of week rule makes timing even more crucial..... first you must have some sort of entry followed by a rough idea of how long the trade will run...... that length of run was the basis for the...
Hayseed, meant to ask you this last week... How long does it take you to write your study scripts? i.e. when you data mine indicator cross overs, or similarly when you calculated the average # of bars in a leg of the zig zag.

I have been playing with CCI (50+ period) and RSI (14 period), by adding a 14 and 7 EMA onto the indicator itself. I am manually counting to gather some data, but wanted to check in and see if you had entertained such an indicator in the past and/or whether or not you would see it as fruitful!
  • #69
  • May 11, 2020 2:03pm May 11, 2020 2:03pm
Quoting tradeChaser
whether or not you would see it as fruitful
//-----

hey tc.... it does not take long to code things...... once you get a good grasp on code at least...... the slow part, for me, is typing it out..... we actually code in our minds, which are quite fast..... so much is memorized......

rarely has there been an idea that was not at least in some way fruitful..... i'm constantly wondering about this and that..... or trying that and this....

can you explain what your studying on again.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #70
  • May 11, 2020 2:43pm May 11, 2020 2:43pm
Well to put simply, its a multi time frame ordeal, but applicable to Higher TF and Lower TF.

In short, if we say the litmus for looking to short was as follows:

  1. TF1 (Highest) is below 50 CCI (period 52 - on Weekly that is a year... give or take).
  2. TF2 (middle) is below 46 RSI (period 14).

Then perhaps it would be good to know the following:

  1. When you apply an EMA to the CCI indicator (not changing period for simplicity), how long does CCI stay below its own EMA and what is the average delta before it crosses back over.
  2. For that matter, how much better would it be if the cross was only taken AFTER RSI had recovered above 50? maybe some, maybe none.

Legend for below:

  1. Blue lines - completely random for purposes of image - but lets say that this is the zone marked "trade-able based on TF1 and TF2 analysis" for short bias.
  2. Green line - represents CCI EMA cross - short entered
  3. Red Line -- CCI crosses back above - trade closed.

How much time spent in trade? Average price change? Again, you may very well have played around with MA's of indicators, and found it to be fruitless. In a single Timeframe, chop is abundant. However, it seems that filtering with at least 1 or 2 other timeframes allow for more consistency in signals (although again, I am naive with only a few years under the belt).

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  • #71
  • May 11, 2020 7:49pm May 11, 2020 7:49pm
Quoting tradeChaser
: TF1 (Highest) is below 50 CCI (period 52 - on Weekly that is a year... give or take).
//-----

both the cci and rsi will beat you to death used in that manner.... as your chart shows..... the frequency of that signal will be less than 5 bars with about 1 atr movement on average...... this because there are far too many signals lasting 2 bars or less....

usually the cci works best as an above or below indicator..... my threshold of choice is the 0 line.... with some cautionary areas at +100 and -100....

yes, you can apply moving averages to it..... my preference is both the 10 and 20 periods..... if you then create a macd style indicator from those 2 moving averages, you will get the typical signal at the 0 line cross over......

the rsi is similar..... values change of course but idea remains the same...... instead of the rsi, a better choice might be the qqe..... it's based off the rsi and has moving averages...... the qqe is being calculated in almost everything i do.....

unless your scalping, the smoother the better....h
//----
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #72
  • May 11, 2020 9:26pm May 11, 2020 9:26pm
Quoting tradeChaser
Well to put simply, its a multi time frame ordeal, but applicable to Higher TF and Lower TF. In short,
//---

hey tc..... here is an example.... must have something screwy in my code, it's a small bit off...... but it's close enough for now....

the cci(14) has 2 sma's on it....sma(10) and sma(20)..... the macd lookin indicator below is the convergence divergence of those 2 ma's..... simply put, the macd of cci sma's....

you can clearly see the benefit of your suggestion above involving ma's...... there are a few obvious losing trades that are easily avoided by not trading against the alma and tsr......

taking it a bit further , as you suggested, and using the 1440 timeframe as a filter will keep you out of considerably more losing trades..... yes, the higher timeframe filter will also keep you out of a few winning ones.....

giving up a winner here or there is well worth missing a loser here or there.....h
//----
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #73
  • May 11, 2020 11:30pm May 11, 2020 11:30pm
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //--- hey tc..... here is an example.... must have something screwy in my code, it's a small bit off...... but it's close enough for now.... the cci(14) has 2 sma's on it....sma(10) and sma(20)..... the macd lookin indicator below is the convergence divergence of those 2 ma's..... simply put, the macd of cci sma's.... you can clearly see the benefit of your suggestion above involving ma's...... there are a few obvious losing trades that are easily avoided by not trading against the alma and tsr...... taking it a bit further , as you suggested,...
good looking template! I appreciate that input and looking back since the post even before that, I definitely see the issue with Chop. Chop seems to dissipate as you smooth, but obviously delays entries as well.

so I leave you with another question... is there much value here, or considering the experience you have with Alma and TSR, is it just adding noise when there are already better tools for the trade?
  • #74
  • May 12, 2020 1:17pm May 12, 2020 1:17pm
Doing some reading through your 2020 on Earn Forex as well. I have a quick question about your bias toward the trend...

regarding reading the trend:

  1. Do you put most emphasis on Weekly or Monthly?
  2. Seeing a lot of ZZ and 200MA reference. Do you like to see that the Pair is below 200MA AND currently in the down leg of ZZ? I get confused here, as I know on smaller TF, you want to be selling into short term strength/long term weakness. However, in creating my bias on the larger TF, I am not sure if it is already too late if the down leg is forming


Regarding entering where you think is best chance to join the trend:

  1. in your top down look, how many TF have to be in agreement before entry on smallest TF (assuming you are looking at H4 for entry as I see a lot of that on here). I am trying to better understand the "flip" you mentioned where all TF are retracing the trend and then begin to fold over.


Lastly - in ZZ verbiage, if the last leg is an up leg, does that mean that the down leg is currently visible and that the upleg has fully completed? Or does that mean that the current printing leg is the is the up leg and it is being reprinted until a solid retrace?

Sorry for the barrage. Just trying to fully understand!

  • #75
  • May 12, 2020 3:29pm May 12, 2020 3:29pm
tC,
Please do elaborate on the 'better tools '.
  • #76
  • May 12, 2020 4:48pm May 12, 2020 4:48pm
Quoting OutThere
tC, Please do elaborate on the 'better tools '.
Well, better tools being alma, tsr, etc.

In short, I “feel” like I’m getting a different look with the CCI, but in reality, I may just be adding noise when the tsr and alma are better suited already to filter trend and entries.

put another way, hayseed mentioned in the above
post that there are some okay signals with the CCI MA’s, so long as you don’t trade against the tsr/alma. But given hayseeds chart time, I am curious if even though there were a couple good signals, is the opinion that the CCI ma’s would just cause more noise compared to just using tsr, alma, and other tools (as I know these have been strong tools of his over the years).

I hope that makes sense, but sometimes it’s difficult to explain just via text.
  • #77
  • May 12, 2020 4:52pm May 12, 2020 4:52pm
Quoting OutThere
tC, Please do elaborate on the 'better tools '.
just thought of another way to explain myself!

i was looking for input on the CCI MA’s. Hayseed mentioned that paired with tsr and alma for dilter, there are some signals.

so my question... does a third indicator add value, or were the previously used indicators just fine on their own? If a third indicator is of value, is the CCI method I mentioned the best available option, or should it be replaced with a more accurate indicator?

hope that clarifies even further!
  • #78
  • May 12, 2020 5:45pm May 12, 2020 5:45pm
Quoting tradeChaser
{quote} just thought of another way to explain myself! i was looking for input on the CCI MA’s. Hayseed mentioned that paired with tsr and alma for dilter, there are some signals. so my question... does a third indicator add value, or were the previously used indicators just fine on their own? If a third indicator is of value, is the CCI method I mentioned the best available option, or should it be replaced with a more accurate indicator? hope that clarifies even further!
OK, gotcha.
Thx.
  • #79
  • May 12, 2020 9:22pm May 12, 2020 9:22pm
Trying to contribute to this journal, not hijack, so I am curious how well the below trade idea fits into your current 2020 strategy. I tried to take some of your indicators that I could find and utilize similar settings - as well as build an excel dashboard (very rudimentary).

Trade Idea 1: EURJPY:
In short, Clear down trend on Weekly.

  1. ZZ - currently in down leg on W1 and Daily, but up leg on H4.Both the Weekly and Daily leg lengths seem to be in stride with the past, but the up leg on the H4 would actually be the shortest in the recent past - this tells me that there might be some more retracing before the continuation. That said, H4 is already 50 pips with the trend since up leg. I personally want to wait for TSR, but an concerned about what I will miss... maybe half a bundle.
  2. TSR - obvious here. Top two TF agree, and H4 needs to flip. This would be a very nice signal, again. However, I am curious how long it will take before it does and how far it will travel.
  3. 200MA - all in agreement for bearish trend.
  4. MISC - Fib retrace of last H4 leg actually exceeds 61.8 and falls shy of 78.6...


I guess what I am curious about is when you see the below chart, and you see the indicators as they are, do form similar interpretations? Or do you have separate ones about the indicators at hand? Again, I like this short because the H4 retraced about as well as it could without breaking structure, and the Weekly ZZ leg still has about 300-400 pips on the downside before it starts to stand out from the rest. Yet, I don't feel as confident as I feel I should.

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  • #80
  • May 12, 2020 9:37pm May 12, 2020 9:37pm
Trade Idea to better understand utilizing ZZ lengths...

EG - no visible trend and truly this pair looks like a giant trap... however, we are approaching a point of very considerable confluence...

0.88625 creates a serious point of confluence as a revisit will be a triple top AND a very, very long H4 ZZ leg - both in duration and pips. In the last 10 legs (about a month), it would be the 3rd largest and just the second longest (in duration).

Again, just curious how you foresee this playing out with the recent ZZ legs in mind.

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