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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #6,301
  • May 11, 2020 3:44am May 11, 2020 3:44am
Hi Alan,

Sorry to hear about your son in law's health problem. Wishing your family all the best in these hard times.

Kind Regards
  • #6,302
  • May 11, 2020 4:01am May 11, 2020 4:01am
Morning Everyone,

sorry to hear about the struggle you're going through at the moment Alan i wish you all the best.


We had a nice H4 move this morning (alan divergence) and a 5m divergence and overbought signal that caught my attention before the short.
If i have made any mistakes or missed anything please can someone let me know.

Thankyou
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  • #6,303
  • May 11, 2020 4:19am May 11, 2020 4:19am
Hi all

I have drawn what i think is bull support in the 1H charts.

Can you please comment on this.

Thanks
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  • #6,304
  • May 11, 2020 6:13am May 11, 2020 6:13am
Hello all, I too send my best wishes to Alan's son-in-law and to everyone on this thread.

Marking Del's homework about bull support on the 60m chart.

1 is correct.
2 is still part of the same bull support that found itself at 1, although as price has closed below the EMA it has technically failed.
3 then becomes the second area of bull support after 1. It actually found support under the first pullback pivot exactly where your 3 white line starts.

A good effort. :-)

(please note I am not the guru either)
  • #6,305
  • May 11, 2020 6:26am May 11, 2020 6:26am
Quoting mayflower
Hello all, I too send my best wishes to Alan's son-in-law and to everyone on this thread. Marking Del's homework about bull support on the 60m chart. 1 is correct. 2 is still part of the same bull support that found itself at 1, although as price has closed below the EMA it has technically failed. 3 then becomes the second area of bull support after 1. It actually found support under the first pullback pivot exactly where your 3 white line starts. A good effort. :-) (please note I am not the guru either)

Mayflower

Thanks.

I suppose now we are looking for bear support......
  • #6,306
  • May 11, 2020 7:00am May 11, 2020 7:00am
I'm afraid you have missed the boat today Del. With the price crossing the EMA on the 60m you should have turned to your 5m chart and waited for the first pullback (see magenta line on both charts) So far you (and me actually) have missed out on 100+ pips.

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(please note I am not the guru either)
  • #6,307
  • May 11, 2020 7:36am May 11, 2020 7:36am
Quoting mayflower
I'm afraid you have missed the boat today Del. With the price crossing the EMA on the 60m you should have turned to your 5m chart and waited for the first pullback (see magenta line on both charts) So far you (and me actually) have missed out on 100+ pips. {image} (please note I am not the guru either)

It paused aound day EMA before crossing 1H EMA.

I am looking at too many things .

Thanks for your feedback.
Much appreciated
  • #6,308
  • May 11, 2020 11:23am May 11, 2020 11:23am
Quoting Jazz1964
{quote} Sorry to hear about your son in law's health problem. Hope he will recover and your daughter (and kids?) receive enough strength to go through this. Same for you. Regarding your losing trades, do you mind to post a chart with these trades plotted and a comment on that trading? I myself am on hold regarding trading, recovering from a serie hart attacks. Just doing an additional trading study. Hope to be back in a month.
Oh what a coincident that my 89 yrs old mother happen to come over my city for medical follow-up and being stuck here for almost 2 months due to Covid19 lock down right after her check up is completed . She is well and sound beforehand but after being locked in my apartment without routine actions such as house chores and gardening etc, her muscle get weaken quickly that make her motion not as nimble like before...the worse then come last week she fall down that hurt her back bone that results in her inability to take care of herself...I took care of her alone day and night until I got a heart attack at 4am and admit to emergency department...I insist not to stay overnight coz of my mum alone in my apartment and request medicines as a temporary solution.

Life incidents just keep after people one after another, i just have to go back hospital for follow up action once circumstances or my medicines are consumed but I'm not losing hope at all due to this L.O.S.S method.

I'm sorry if I distressed all of you because of the story, but I really grateful and want to thank Alan very much to share with us this excellent method. I do hope one day I'll come back stronger and wish all of you and Alan all the best during these difficult times.
  • #6,309
  • May 11, 2020 1:31pm May 11, 2020 1:31pm
Quoting limth
{quote} Oh what a coincident that my 89 yrs old mother happen to come over my city for medical follow-up and being stuck here for almost 2 months due to Covid19 lock down right after her check up is completed . She is well and sound beforehand but after being locked in my apartment without routine actions such as house chores and gardening etc, her muscle get weaken quickly that make her motion not as nimble like before...the worse then come last week she fall down that hurt her back bone that results in her inability to take care of herself...I...
Be strong Limth
I can’t do anyrhing for you bit i support you
Cheers
Chris
  • #6,310
  • May 11, 2020 8:05pm May 11, 2020 8:05pm
Quoting Del62a
Hi all I have drawn what i think is bull support in the 1H charts. Can you please comment on this. Thanks {image}
This is a great chart on which to comment...

1) Is a correct bull support and everything now is going to make the effort to take this out.
First is a retest (hook) but the bears fail and we see a 100 pip move because of this bear weakness.

The bears are not happy and stop the bulls from finding a new support level and pull all the way back to X below the EMA.

The bulls have to try again to find support which they do at 2 and this infuriates the bears into taking strong action and they bolt down to take out the support at 1.

Now this is the interesting bit because the bears should not have done this without finding support first. Realising the error at Y they return to 3 to find their bear support so now they can take out the bull support at 1. Notice at the ? there was some hesitation.

The interactions between bear and bull suports (the opposite sides being bull and bear resistances) is fascinating and one could build an entire trading system around them.

It normally takes a bear support to take out a bull support or a bear to take out a bull so when we spot them we have a good idea what is afoot and can trade the distances involved. The swing of the average helps with targeting as does the daily pivot levels so we can build quite a strong case for trading a particular direction for a particular distance at a particular time.

Your numbers 2 and 3 were wrong, price closed below the EMA.

Here for your diary is the chart for the events written here.
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  • #6,311
  • May 11, 2020 10:36pm May 11, 2020 10:36pm
Continuing with bull and bear supports...

If I back up the chart a tad we can see the bear support marked 4. This made the bull resistance the bull support at 1 was going for.

Though the bulls reached it they could not close across, this is bull weakness and from this point the bears showed their strength.

If we look at the bull supports 1 and 2 we can see there is a difference. 1 is strong passing the previous bull pivot whereas 2 is weak not passing the bull pivot and collapses as a result. We can determine from this the bears are getting stronger than the bulls.

We can see from the chart below how these supports are interwoven in the price structure. One takes out the other.

The interesting one here is the number 2 it was a bull support so how can it react with number 1 which was another bull support. Well if 2 is support for the bulls then it follows that it must be resistance for the bears so in this case the resistance has taken out the support and number 3 just confirms the fact.

Please note my views on support and resistance differ from the main stream. I believe that support has to be FOUND and resistance has to be overcome. If the resistance is not overcome then this shows a weakness of the attacking side. Both bulls and bears can FIND support and both can MEET with resistance.

It is normally the case that these operate in pairs as shown in the chart below...
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  • #6,312
  • May 11, 2020 11:09pm May 11, 2020 11:09pm
Thanks for all your well wishes guys hopefully Justin can get through this kemo again, he calls it kemo because like kino it is a lottery.

Several of you guys ask me for one on one training or mentoring, sorry but I just don't have the time for this anymore but I am always ready to have a chat on skype during none trading times.

I am trying to get my daughter Kendra to do the school pick ups and me do the drop offs so that I can trade the 108 onwards.
  • #6,313
  • May 11, 2020 11:28pm May 11, 2020 11:28pm
For today I am looking at this 1 hour chart expecting the EMA to make the LL at A and the price to make B.

So at the 5 min level I would be looking for a bear trend.
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  • #6,314
  • May 12, 2020 12:57am May 12, 2020 12:57am
Hi there Alan, hope your Justin wins his lottery.

Thanks for the continued teachings, sounds like you’ve done a fair bit of mentoring in the past, I’ve been lucky to have been gifted teachings from some amazingly talented trading friends in the past and I am able to reflect on how stressful it can be on teachers trying to get their students over the line when success is elusive, so I have no doubt you have earned your rest from all of that.

Today after many weeks of study, I had my first session trying to put everything I have learned from you together. I started in my demo account and made quite a few mistakes but particularly enjoyed getting my head around the hedging concept. After I get a few more sessions under my belt and sort out any struggle points I might take you up on your kind offer of a skype call to clarify points. Many thanks J. Cheers…Paul.
  • #6,315
  • May 12, 2020 1:18am May 12, 2020 1:18am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} This is a great chart on which to comment... 1) Is a correct bull support and everything now is going to make the effort to take this out. First is a retest (hook) but the bears fail and we see a 100 pip move because of this bear weakness. The bears are not happy and stop the bulls from finding a new support level and pull all the way back to X below the EMA. The bulls have to try again to find support which they do at 2 and this infuriates the bears into taking strong action and they bolt down to take out the support at 1. Now this is the...

Alan

Many thanks for your clear explanation.

Your guidance is invaluable.

Much appreciated.
  • #6,316
  • May 12, 2020 2:36am May 12, 2020 2:36am
Well I just got back and what a difference a few hours has made. The 1 hour has pulled back to the EMA supposedly in an attempt to stop it.

I also see on the 5 min the bears found support to take out the bull support and that is all they did

Not sure what is going to happen at the 1 hour EMA so I will sit this out for a while.
  • #6,317
  • May 12, 2020 2:58am May 12, 2020 2:58am
I got stopped out twice with tiny profit shorting from 1H EMA.

That's it for me for today.
  • #6,318
  • May 12, 2020 3:03am May 12, 2020 3:03am
Hello and Good morning from the UK.

I want to say thanks to Alan, this wonderful system has changed the way I have thought about trading... i was warned off any USD pairing early in my trading career by No nonsense forex, however i find everything else too slow for me and scalping on the 1 minute chart is crazy also.... My brain will not allow me to hold trades for days at a time or for watching candles and ticks go up and down at breakneck speed.

I have dabbled for a few months and have a desire to trade full time some time in the future. with some more practice i am sure i will manage. I am consultant Engineering manager, self employed with a diploma in Accountancy and I am extremely interested in Finance, all sorts of technical analysis and patterns, this leads me to paralysis by analysis often. Alans system is a game changer for me. Sorry to hear about your challenges Alan and those other members who contribute regularily . Hopefully i can start interacting with people a bit more now i have decided to stop lurking and take some action on the trading front. (I will have to learn how to post charts also ) I use MT5 so none of the previous links work for me but I have managed to find some and get some practice in.

Again, Thanks to Alan and the others for the great work i have seen so far in this thread, I'm up to about page 60 reading all the charts and 'alanysis' (analysis) there is another word to add to the often used terms. hope things improve for everyone soon.

Dave
  • #6,319
  • May 12, 2020 7:05pm May 12, 2020 7:05pm
Well that was certainly a long winded affair yesterday but eventually the EMA did break the LL (A) and price perfectly hit the next level (B) unfortunately I was in bed fast asleep for most of it but I did catch a few pips long.

Today I start the school drop offs with no pickup so I can trade the 108 time more effectively though I see yesterday there wasn't much action at that time. We get that from time to time.

A nice ABCD was formed and hit to the short side and also an AB = CD and I would imagine D is the next short target since the bulls have been unable to FIND support and the bears continue to do so.

Don't know if you can see all this on my messy chart below. The D target for the AB = CD is in the middle of the daily S1 and S2 pivot levels. It may do this during the Asian session leaving the London in a position to go long (May Be) have to wait to find out.
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  • #6,320
  • May 13, 2020 1:24am May 13, 2020 1:24am
Finally after the 1 hour div and the pull back to the EMA I get my 1K back. So off to a good start but haven't a clue where we are going from here.
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