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AUD/USD

  • #105,961
  • May 7, 2020 7:48pm May 7, 2020 7:48pm
aud/usd
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bakare
  • #105,962
  • May 7, 2020 9:38pm May 7, 2020 9:38pm
Quoting johndgenius
{quote} I'm expecting price to go up around 0.6527
and then some more? ,)
grist for the mill
  • #105,963
  • May 8, 2020 12:00am May 8, 2020 12:00am
Looks like AUD pairs are in truble
I have signals to sell AUD...
  • #105,964
  • May 8, 2020 3:11am May 8, 2020 3:11am
Looking good to short
Master your mind. Master Trading.
  • #105,965
  • May 8, 2020 5:59am May 8, 2020 5:59am
might get some pips if you short friday close but buyers are still running the show, watch your fingers kiddies!
grist for the mill
  • #105,966
  • May 8, 2020 6:02am May 8, 2020 6:02am
Quoting JackJones
might get some pips if you short friday close but buyers still running the show, watch your fingers kiddies!
Hi, why do you think AUD will fall by next week
  • #105,967
  • Edited 6:54am May 8, 2020 6:05am | Edited 6:54am
Quoting johndgenius
{quote} Hi, why do you think AUD will fall by next week
who wants to buy the weeks high on final hours of fridays close? not saying it can't happen but it's pretty rare. best guess is it will poke the highs and run down a bit.. we shall see. i'm flat as a pancake, looking for better odds.
edit: its nfp, so who knows chop-chop
grist for the mill
  • #105,968
  • May 8, 2020 10:57am May 8, 2020 10:57am
Quoting JackJones
{quote} who wants to buy the weeks high on final hours of fridays close? not saying it can't happen but it's pretty rare. best guess is it will poke the highs and run down a bit.. we shall see. i'm flat as a pancake, looking for better odds. edit: its nfp, so who knows chop-chop

Got caught in a stupid short since yesterday. Offcourse the nfp made it go further up.

i am already way in drawdown so keeping over the weekend will not matter. This is 6 weeks now bullish and was expecting a turnaround after last week but no..


trying to catch a correction to offload the position but i dont see it comming really as the s&p 500 is pushing up further although economy outlook is a disaster... shame in me for this stupid trade :-)
  • #105,969
  • May 8, 2020 1:40pm May 8, 2020 1:40pm
Quoting krst8
{quote} Got caught in a stupid short since yesterday. Offcourse the nfp made it go further up. i am already way in drawdown so keeping over the weekend will not matter. This is 6 weeks now bullish and was expecting a turnaround after last week but no.. trying to catch a correction to offload the position but i dont see it comming really as the s&p 500 is pushing up further although economy outlook is a disaster... shame in me for this stupid trade :-)
Fundamentally and technically, short is almost a sure bet. RBA suggested no rate hike, US performing slightly better than what is reflected in the markets, currently at weekly highs, big levels of leveraged money already long (meaning the only way this thing can go is down when they unwind). I could be wrong, but with the amount of reasons to go short, I wouldn't lose sleep if I lost a bit of money on this.

Obviously, nothing matters if you got a sh*t price. What price did you get in at? If it's anything above 65, I'd hold. This is going to be a pain trade way into late next week, possibly the week after.

I've been holding since yesterday afternoon. Let's see who has the bigger cahonas.
  • #105,970
  • Edited May 9, 2020 1:56am May 8, 2020 2:49pm | Edited May 9, 2020 1:56am
Quoting renatusmusic
{quote} Fundamentally and technically, short is almost a sure bet. RBA suggested no rate hike, US performing slightly better than what is reflected in the markets, currently at weekly highs, big levels of leveraged money already long (meaning the only way this thing can go is down when they unwind). I could be wrong, but with the amount of reasons to go short, I wouldn't lose sleep if I lost a bit of money on this. Obviously, nothing matters if you got a sh*t price. What price did you get in at? If it's anything above 65, I'd hold. This is going...

unfortunately i was keeping a long trade from about 63.8 level the night before, but felt that this should dive down so counter trade it after a sell, so my short is at about 645... 80 points of right now so not proud of myself.. i should have cut the trade last night before dow closing with a small loss at the pullback but quit my system (which is never keep positions longterm!) so here we are :-).

I am planning to let the position run over the weekend and let's see how this pans out. I am not optimistic however, the rational point is rather gone now. As dow will end tonight in the final hour i see in even higher levels.

.
  • #105,971
  • May 8, 2020 3:54pm May 8, 2020 3:54pm
Cot data still show no large movements these last weeks. Still in a downtrend longterm but the shorts positions has been slightly offloaded in this weeks report.
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  • #105,972
  • May 8, 2020 9:29pm May 8, 2020 9:29pm
Quoting krst8
Cot data still show no large movements these last weeks. Still in a downtrend longterm but the shorts positions has been slightly offloaded in this weeks report. {image}
I would say have faith. Yes, shorts have unloaded overall, but where from? It's from "large spec", who are "fast money". In an environment like this, they probably don't hold positions more than a couple of days, which means that the positions from last Tuesday may have all TP'd. In contrast, "slow money" that doesn't unload that quickly, is still massively short. Once fast money TP's, we will be left with the slow money shorts. Depending on where the TP's are, I expect a pretty quick demise of the AUD.

Of course, if all of the large specs have bigger balls than any of us and hold until after we breach weekly highs, then we're all royally f*cked. But we can't do anything about that. Big dog eats small dog - just the nature of the game until we have a couple of billion to play with.
  • #105,973
  • May 10, 2020 11:24am May 10, 2020 11:24am
Aud usd is looking good to continue its uptrend however we should wait for pull backs before we enter the trend
Master your mind. Master Trading.
  • #105,974
  • May 10, 2020 11:32am May 10, 2020 11:32am
AUD USD last weeks have been extremely correlated to SP 500. I have read about this in the past and this is here again this pattern.

Basically during the days when DOW is closed one can just predict the market by checking the future market.

The first image is AUDUSD vs SP500

And second image is AUDUSD vs SP1 (Current future contact SPX)

As one could belive there is no differnce offcourse between SP1 and SPX on that short term. But just that one can "predict" the movement of the AUD based on SPX. Hence i did not belive last week that SP500 would skyrocket like it did... :-)
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  • #105,975
  • May 10, 2020 9:05pm May 10, 2020 9:05pm
nice bullish close we got more room to move up
Master your mind. Master Trading.
  • #105,976
  • May 10, 2020 9:26pm May 10, 2020 9:26pm
Quoting princeali115
nice bullish close we got more room to move up
yepp! The price tracks the dow/spx future market. There is no indication so far that this will not continue for more to just be a derivative of the us stock market...
  • #105,977
  • May 10, 2020 9:32pm May 10, 2020 9:32pm
Quoting krst8
{quote} yepp! The price tracks the dow/spx future market. There is no indication so far that this will not continue for more to just be a derivative of the us stock market...
You are speaking of correlation ?
Master your mind. Master Trading.
  • #105,978
  • May 10, 2020 9:37pm May 10, 2020 9:37pm
Quoting princeali115
{quote} You are speaking of correlation ?
yes. As of now the us stock market is extremely correlated to AUD. If you check for example that AUD dont care about dxy for example, only us stock
  • #105,979
  • May 10, 2020 9:47pm May 10, 2020 9:47pm
Quoting krst8
{quote} yes. As of now the us stock market is extremely correlated to AUD. If you check for example that AUD dont care about dxy for example, only us stock
I see I do respect correlation analysis thank you I should look at this
Master your mind. Master Trading.
  • #105,980
  • May 10, 2020 10:58pm May 10, 2020 10:58pm
Quoting krst8
{quote} yes. As of now the us stock market is extremely correlated to AUD. If you check for example that AUD dont care about dxy for example, only us stock
Are you sure that’s not because of liquidity movement? If the SPX drops, it means that people have taken out USD from their equity positions, i.e. equity -> cash movement. If more people have USD, then the DXY value goes up, sending the AUDUSD down. If the AUD is a constant, the AUDUSD of course will reflect the SPX.

I am hoping for an SPX demise because of this (sorry 401k’ers).
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