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Real or Algo

  • #281
  • May 5, 2020 10:44pm May 5, 2020 10:44pm
Quoting mik2012
{quote} Hi Nauxil! Now is the pound yen, momentum? We look at MA200 and MA20 on H4, on MA20 and MA7 on H1, the same? Here 7 is above 20, and 20 is above 200 .. Correct me if I'm wrong Сheers Mike {image} {image}
I finally figured out the momentum, thanks to Glenn, Zoltan and George of course, who for the sake of this came out of the underground and published several excellent posts on the TMA thread.What is happening on oil is a good example (correction)

Cheers Mike
  • #282
  • May 6, 2020 1:43am May 6, 2020 1:43am
GBPJPY is Selling off as described in my previous post.
If you want to see the Algo in total control, wait till you see what happens at 128.314
Better still see what happens to Tick speed when it hits -
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #283
  • May 6, 2020 1:50am May 6, 2020 1:50am
Quoting BWilliam
A pro trader told me not to waste time scalp for pittance many years ago, the huge unseen cost is time. He said learn the true market structure acquire math and coding skills then you don't have to screen stare again. What happens in small tf happens just the same in all tf. Back then when I started I go for home runs because of the small account that I need to compound to grow. Today I trade for the standard preset 20pips with preset 10pips sl, 2 trades a day - I decided the rest of the pips don't belong to me. Time is more precious than money....
Out of interest, why didn't u take the 3rd signal too? Was it just a case of not being near trading platform at the time?

Thanks
DM
  • #284
  • May 6, 2020 2:17am May 6, 2020 2:17am
Quoting RickM
GBPJPY is Selling off as described in my previous post. If you want to see the Algo in total control, wait till you see what happens at 128.314 Better still see what happens to Tick speed when it hits - {image}
As mentioned in my previous posts.... same areas and levels being posted... different methodologies and thought patterns behind it. I believe there will be a good move from that area as you mentioned, but not because of algos. And you believe there will be a good move, but I assume not because of "support/resistance" or "supply/demand".

I believe we could see a bounce before we will see that level, at around 131.32. Anyhow, GJ is a volatile beast and could blow past the consolidation formed on the 26th March. Should see what happens tonight as it's only 30 odd pips away.
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  • #285
  • May 6, 2020 3:35am May 6, 2020 3:35am
Quoting pierre23
{quote} As mentioned in my previous posts.... same areas and levels being posted... different methodologies and thought patterns behind it. I believe there will be a good move from that area as you mentioned, but not because of algos. And you believe there will be a good move, but I assume not because of "support/resistance" or "supply/demand". I believe we could see a bounce before we will see that level, at around 131.32. Anyhow, GJ is a volatile beast and could blow past the consolidation formed on the 26th March. Should see what happens tonight...
Hi Pierre

Yes different methodologies and thought patterns behind our targets but isn't it interesting many traders come to the same answer but ask different questions.
You may say that your target has been obvious since early March, I will say it was obvious since November 2016

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #286
  • May 6, 2020 3:52am May 6, 2020 3:52am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} Out of interest, why didn't u take the 3rd signal too? Was it just a case of not being near trading platform at the time? Thanks DM
I trade setups from 1hr to Frankfurt open to London Close. Same boring way every trade.
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Know what you trade
  • #287
  • May 6, 2020 4:04am May 6, 2020 4:04am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Pierre Yes different methodologies and thought patterns behind our targets but isn't it interesting many traders come to the same answer but ask different questions. You may say that your target has been obvious since early March, I will say it was obvious since November 2016 Cheers
Sure, if you wanted to scroll back that far on the charts, shows the same data supporting it. Unnecessary however to go back that far IMO, unless you're trading the daily or weekly.
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  • #288
  • May 6, 2020 4:54am May 6, 2020 4:54am
Oil momentum
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  • #289
  • May 6, 2020 6:09am May 6, 2020 6:09am
Quoting pierre23
{quote}I believe we could see a bounce before we will see that level, at around 131.32. {image}
No crystal ball... just the market being predictable to the cent.
In and out +20 with 2pip drawdown.
IMO if it closes above 131.65 then I would expect it to continue to 132.00 - 132.20.
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  • #290
  • May 6, 2020 7:33am May 6, 2020 7:33am
Same boring spike reversal trade everyday - just 2 trades a day.
It's a real market operating within the governance of the CB and tier1 traders.
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Know what you trade
  • #291
  • May 6, 2020 5:31pm May 6, 2020 5:31pm
Quoting BWilliam
Same boring spike reversal trade everyday - just 2 trades a day. It's a real market operating within the governance of the CB and tier1 traders. {image}

Hi BW

Nice EC trade, I was fast asleep. But caught the earlier tho smaller move (below).


I assume both our charts are MT4 broker, using a mid-level Liquidity Provider pricing feed.


Can we be certain these are the SAME prices traded at the SAME time by Tier 1 - Interbank (monitored by CBs).

Who has access to that pricing to give us the certainty of your statement…


”It's a real market operating within the governance of the CB and tier1 traders.”


If you do have access to Tier 1 pricing, at the same time as our MT4 feed, that would answer a lot of questions for me.

All the best.
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  • #292
  • May 6, 2020 6:39pm May 6, 2020 6:39pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi BW Nice EC trade, I was fast asleep. But caught the earlier tho smaller move (below). I assume both our charts are MT4 broker, using a mid-level Liquidity Provider pricing feed. Can we be certain these are the SAME prices traded at the SAME time by Tier 1 - Interbank (monitored by CBs). Who has access to that pricing to give us the certainty of your statement… ”It's a real market operating within the governance of the CB and tier1 traders.” If you do have access to Tier 1 pricing, at the same time as our MT4 feed, that would answer a...
That would go a long way to answering the question for me Pete..hopefully BWiliam might have some feed back
  • #293
  • May 6, 2020 7:57pm May 6, 2020 7:57pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi BW Nice EC trade, I was fast asleep. But caught the earlier tho smaller move (below). I assume both our charts are MT4 broker, using a mid-level Liquidity Provider pricing feed. Can we be certain these are the SAME prices traded at the SAME time by Tier 1 - Interbank (monitored by CBs). Who has access to that pricing to give us the certainty of your statement… ”It's a real market operating within the governance of the CB and tier1 traders.” If you do have access to Tier 1 pricing, at the same time as our MT4 feed, that would answer...
This is what I do know recalled from memory.

I started trading with a bucket shop in the early 90s then made illegal by legislation so I moved to the clearing house broker, min 1 standard lot spread 5pips for USDDEM the most traded pair besides USDJPY. The charts were provided by knight ridder and telerate quotes which presumably delivers the aggregate mid-price of their pool of LP source. The trade execution is via phone to the dealing room where we, traders, ask for a quote, the dealer has few boxes of communication to the various LPs where he presses on a button to get a verbal quote from the other end for a back to back quote. The dealer then give us a quote with wider spread then that he received, occasionally he shed the quote in his biased direction. We participated in the interbank markets through a clearing house broker. That's the mechanics of retail participation in the fx market.

With online fx trading format today, the same model remains except the entire process is done electronically with more liquidity pools plus the activities of HFT and dark pools.

Back then I had a conversation with the AGM of such a brokerage house who explained the structure of pricing under CB and Tier1 traders who provide guidance to the "limit" of pricing that's deemed as a orderly market. Instruction from T1 gets filtered through the in-house system to T2 and 3 from whom we get our quotes again filtered by our broker. The basic understanding is these retail MM brokerages work inside this interbank structure with many layers of filter. The other source of info comes from the tick data on our charts through the information provider that replaced knight ridder. That's how I understand this retail forex market off retail brokers operate.

This "limit" of pricing structure that the entire forex world operate within suggests upper and lower boundaries and everything else in between - giving bulls, bears and pigs. Ofc they are not static limits and that it gets updated with time. This boundaries can be seen on our chart. That's why we have SR or S/D or targets which interpret this boundary from a linear interpretation that's linked to a historical price high or low. This led to this assumption that this must be purpose driven single algo that gobbles up stoploss to activate this legal transfer of funds, a mind game manipulation of smart money outdoing dumb money.

I take the understanding from a interbank market participant(the AGM) to proceed in the direction of pricing and valuation to determine the upper and lower boundaries. Where value can be found in situations of over and under pricing or at premium or discount. In the micro world we even get over and under pricing inside this over and under pricing boundaries. This explains why a fully automated bot trading is well outside the reach of retail traders considering the additional layer of assessment. It has to be manual trading with the aid of crude retail pricing tools given the resources available to us. As one member wrote, we have to know that when we buy we are able to offload to some other participant at a higher future price to make profit vv. Doing business at over and under valuation attracts attention to the extent it creates inflection points.

So, in conclusion to the specific subject of real or algo, it's a market structure that algos operate inside this confines of CB and T1 monitoring. My 2 cts.
Know what you trade
  • #294
  • May 6, 2020 8:34pm May 6, 2020 8:34pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi BW Nice EC trade, I was fast asleep. But caught the earlier tho smaller move (below). I assume both our charts are MT4 broker, using a mid-level Liquidity Provider pricing feed. Can we be certain these are the SAME prices traded at the SAME time by Tier 1 - Interbank (monitored by CBs). Who has access to that pricing to give us the certainty of your statement… ”It's a real market operating within the governance of the CB and tier1 traders.” If you do have access to Tier 1 pricing, at the same time as our MT4 feed, that would answer a...
The overall pictures of the trade you took seen from the market valuation objectives. Trade executed inside the m15 consolidation phase.
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Know what you trade
  • #295
  • May 6, 2020 9:16pm May 6, 2020 9:16pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} This is what I do know recalled from memory. So, in conclusion to the specific subject of real or algo, it's a market structure that algos operate inside this confines of CB and T1 monitoring. My 2 cts.

Hi BW, thank you for your recollections in an interesting topic of what is and what may actually be, in FX.


If we suppose that CBs hold governance over currencies.

And if we suppose there are upper and lower boundaries to a pair.

Then that wouldn’t involve just one CB.

It would involve two. ie GBPUSD. Interesting stuff indeed.



Thank you for your chart overview on my trade.

Here's the 15m chart trade I took last night & my why (at the time lol).

15p in total plus the 5p i garnered earlier on a GJ buy = 20p for the day.

A fair days target for me imo in this topsy turvy world of trading.

I was done and out of the markets b4 London opened (watched a movie & listened to some music )
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  • #296
  • Edited 2:52pm May 7, 2020 1:57pm | Edited 2:52pm
( PS ... I notice this morning someone downvoted BW's chart assessment on my trade - it wasn't ME lol - and I also cannot see who it was

I posted my 1m chart first on this thread as that is where I make my entries - even though a logical reason cannot really be seen for the trade entry on that chart

When a 15m chart is posted there is now a somewhat clearer reason for a trade entry

I would encourage all traders to look at the different timeframe charts during the course of any potential setups

I do not use any numerical data on a pair to activate my trades - though I CAN see why traders who build data profiles would do so
There is more than one way to skin a cat as they say - and new traders should not be daunted by the fact that there are big players out there with big data

There is room for all of us at whatever level - if we look, and think, about where price is and where it can go
Patterns repeat themselves day in and day out - not just the one I posted - because the market is limited essentially to an up/down movement
Is it a real market operating purely on buy/sell orders or is it an algo roaming the charts taking financial advantage of the current order book situation

Who can know - and is it all the time or just some of the time or maybe just at different times of the market day - and does it really matter)
  • #297
  • May 8, 2020 2:34am May 8, 2020 2:34am
Are you guys still having loss with your current strategy?
  • #298
  • May 8, 2020 3:41am May 8, 2020 3:41am
Quoting TimeTells
( PS ... I notice this morning someone downvoted BW's chart assessment on my trade - it wasn't ME lol - and I also cannot see who it was I posted my 1m chart first on this thread as that is where I make my entries - even though a logical reason cannot really be seen for the trade entry on that chart When a 15m chart is posted there is now a somewhat clearer reason for a trade entry I would encourage all traders to look at the different timeframe charts during the course of any potential setups I do not use any numerical data on a pair to activate...
Hi Pete,

It was me, but obviously it wasn't targeted against you. I rarely push dislike button and only when my BS meter explodes.

Cheers,
b
On ignore list of scammers, deceivers and low IQ individuals. Exclusively
  • #299
  • May 8, 2020 3:54am May 8, 2020 3:54am
Hi b, no probs cheers
  • #300
  • May 8, 2020 1:33pm May 8, 2020 1:33pm
Quoting Karlorenz14
Are you guys still having loss with your current strategy?
Which current strategy strategy?
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