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Pivot Trading

  • #36,921
  • May 7, 2020 2:47pm May 7, 2020 2:47pm
Closed UJ from lack of progress
Nice day 2600
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #36,922
  • May 7, 2020 3:01pm May 7, 2020 3:01pm
Keep GU in check tomorrow testing 23 lows or even below it.My bias is north.
Prefer not entering now likely dive south again before going north.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #36,923
  • May 7, 2020 6:37pm May 7, 2020 6:37pm
Kathy Lien

Tomorrow’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report is expected to be the worst ever. Economists believe that more than 21 million jobs were lost in the month of April, which would drive the unemployment rate up to 16%. The last time the jobless rate was in the double digits was in 1983, just after the 1980s recession. Historic job losses should drive currencies and equities lower, but with everyone looking for an ugly report, how much impact will it really have on the markets? Expectations are one thing, but price action is another. Taking a look at currencies, the persistent sell-off in USD/JPYover the past few weeks tell us that forex traders have positioned for a weak report and, while staggering job losses could still drive USD/JPY lower, the sell-off may be limited if the data doesn’t veer far away from expectations. However, equities and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering near one-month highs, which suggests that traders in those markets are either looking past April data or aren’t prepared for a weak release. We’d like to think that it’s the former since the evidence of staggering job losses are everywhere, but given that stocks and Treasury yields are up over the past month, even a modestly weaker report could send equities tumbling lower. For currencies, this means there’s scope for broad gains for the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc and extended losses for USD/JPY. Keep an eye on average hourly earnings because that’s where the big surprise could be. Economists expect earnings growth to hold steady at 0.4% and rise from 3.1% to 3.3% year over year. This is difficult to fathom considering widespread reports of companies keeping employees on payroll but cutting salaries. If wage growth turns negative and the rest of the jobs report is in line, it could be enough to send equities and currencies sharply lower. In what scenario could stocks and USD/JPY rise? If every part of Friday’s labor market number is in line with expectations – that means stronger wage growth, an unemployment rate of 16%, 21 million jobs lost and no revisions to March data – the markets could rally. The numbers could also be so weak that we see a sharp sell-off that triggers a vigorous recovery as investors think that’s the worst of it and move on. So in a nutshell, the best way to trade NFPs is to either sell ahead of the report and close before or wait for the numbers to be released, prices to stabilize and see what becomes the real move of the day.
  • #36,924
  • May 7, 2020 7:03pm May 7, 2020 7:03pm
Quoting RieseP
Kathy Lien Tomorrow’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report is expected to be the worst ever. Economists believe that more than 21 million jobs were lost in the month of April, which would drive the unemployment rate up to 16%. The last time the jobless rate was in the double digits was in 1983, just after the 1980s recession. Historic job losses should drive currencies and equities lower, but with everyone looking for an ugly report, how much impact will it really have on the markets? Expectations are one thing,...
Good advise.
Personally I am selling the Yen.That's based on my pivot principles.
up already 300 doing just that but have solid longs now
I think we will reach 690 today
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #36,925
  • May 7, 2020 7:11pm May 7, 2020 7:11pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Good advise. Personally I am selling the Yen.That's based on my pivot principles.
I believe it’s priced in. I feel that regardless outcome the institutions don’t want to show the true outcome of the real economics in US and rest of the world. They need to portrait a level of optimism. I’m sure we will hear trump talk about how business is great and there’s growth. He also will like to personal take credit for that. What a ego that man has.

I really hope this is the bottom and only way is up from here. Scary times and I just hope that people find the courage to perceiver through these dark times.
  • #36,926
  • May 7, 2020 7:17pm May 7, 2020 7:17pm
Quoting RieseP
{quote} I believe it’s priced in. I feel that regardless outcome the institutions don’t want to show the true outcome of the real economics in US and rest of the world. They need to portrait a level of optimism. I’m sure we will hear trump talk about how business is great and there’s growth. He also will like to personal take credit for that. What a ego that man has. I really hope this is the bottom and only way is up from here. Scary times and I just hope that people find the courage to perceiver through these dark times.
In human history much worse situations we lived through famine global wars etc. We are overweight from availability of food...that's one thing we wont have to worry about. Lot of hype about this decease much of it not grounded in true science. Sweden refused to lock down and doing fine...as an example.
Doctors using ventilators when they should be using oxygen and causing lung failure from pressure of ventilators.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #36,927
  • May 7, 2020 7:26pm May 7, 2020 7:26pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} In human history much worse situations we lived through famine global wars etc. We are overweight from availability of food...that's one thing we wont have to worry about. Lot of hype about this decease much of it not grounded in true science. Sweden refused to lock down and doing fine...as an example. Doctors using ventilators when they should be using oxygen and causing lung failure from pressure of ventilators. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bp5RMutCNoI
For sure the UK has only 0.6 of all deaths was under age of 35. Now should we be in lockdown. I believe not. I might have a higher chance of getting run over electric shock etc.

Furthermore the healthcare has seen 70% rate drop in new patience diagnosed with cancer all simply people are afraid of going to there local doctors or A+E as a results in months and years we see increase of deaths with cancer that is linked with corona.
  • #36,928
  • May 7, 2020 7:29pm May 7, 2020 7:29pm
finally got a video appointment with a doctor for my shoulder tomorrow. I had some encouraging PM's Thank you

On UJ I strongly believe weaker Yen is critical for Japan's economy therefore below 105 we will see BOJ interventions.Focus should not be just US economy Covid19 is global effecting every country. Example heavy export depended economy like Japan can't survive if west stops buying their electronics and cars.
So its not just about USD
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #36,929
  • May 7, 2020 7:46pm May 7, 2020 7:46pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Good advise. Personally I am selling the Yen.That's based on my pivot principles. up already 300 doing just that but have solid longs now I think we will reach 690 today
106.90 is right where my TP sits. I've been long since Tuesday, actually added a bit at lower as well. Collecting swap.
  • #36,930
  • May 7, 2020 7:48pm May 7, 2020 7:48pm
Closed EU longs
may reload if drops lower where I exited
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #36,931
  • May 7, 2020 7:50pm May 7, 2020 7:50pm
Quoting Davit
Closed EU longs may reload if drops lower where I exited {image}
I'm on EURJPY, looking for 115.95
  • #36,932
  • May 7, 2020 7:52pm May 7, 2020 7:52pm
The Aussie like to kick me in the balls
  • #36,933
  • May 7, 2020 7:53pm May 7, 2020 7:53pm
Quoting pipmaster77
{quote} I'm on EURJPY, looking for 115.95
reasonable target
AU hits 6570-66 I may start shorting
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #36,934
  • May 7, 2020 7:57pm May 7, 2020 7:57pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} reasonable target AU hits 6570-66 I may start shorting
I'd rather play that through GBPAUD long, sitting right on S61. I know that's tough one for you because of margin.
  • #36,935
  • May 7, 2020 8:00pm May 7, 2020 8:00pm
Quoting pipmaster77
{quote} I'd rather play that through GBPAUD long, sitting right on S61. I know that's tough one for you because of margin.
That the margin takes too much
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #36,936
  • May 7, 2020 8:03pm May 7, 2020 8:03pm
Push then dump? We'll see at 9.30pm EST RBA Monetary Policy Statement
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #36,937
  • May 7, 2020 8:04pm May 7, 2020 8:04pm
Quoting GreenEarth
{quote} Hi Egbert , before the ISM News was released , UC was at SUPPORT 38 and had momentum upward from S100 on a 4hr chart. Thus for this pair , I'm thinking that in all probability the short term trend would continue upward despite the 2 big candles at S38. Was actually going to short the UC at 1.40 and TP at S61 , being a Friday. Don't like to hold positions over the weekends. However , the News gave the USD a solid boost North. I then sold into heavy resistance area of 1.4070 to 1.4090 Didn't retrace as much as I had wanted today but Monday...
You've been absent? Whats up?
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #36,938
  • May 7, 2020 8:34pm May 7, 2020 8:34pm
interesting video while waiting on trades
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #36,939
  • May 7, 2020 10:39pm May 7, 2020 10:39pm
I am feeling Thirsty.
R
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Ronnie Renko
  • #36,940
  • May 8, 2020 1:57am May 8, 2020 1:57am
Closed EU trades this morning. Up 5/5 on 0.5% daily target. Up 2.5% on the week! Thanks Davit and everyone!
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