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Forex is random

  • #461
  • Edited 8:39am May 4, 2020 7:16am | Edited 8:39am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Mingary How fast can you blink. Manipulation occurs on order flow and best seen on the M1 chart. Most traders are looking at H1 / H4 to see it. They will see the result of the action but they will miss that crucial second. This is classic Manipulation, push price up 8 pips then hit it with extreme speed to reverse the market. It takes a bot to do this and you also need to be watching tick charts to have any chance of seeing it happen. If you blink, it may have already occurred. IF YOU CONTROL PRICE - YOU CONTROL SUPPLY & DEMAND {image}...
Ok but ... Among the dozens and dozens of indicators and systems that I have written, I found a way to identify this type of price action, basically the tick count goes ballistic for a few seconds (yoyo effect) at a single price (yes, on the 1M).... Even with that, it's still a guess if it's a breakout or a reversal.. So, on hindsight, indeed you could say "it turned the market", but apparently I am the only one who must trade in real time..


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  • #462
  • Edited 9:00am May 4, 2020 8:44am | Edited 9:00am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Ok but ... Among the dozens and dozens of indicators and systems that I have written, I found a way to identify this type of price action, basically the tick count goes ballistic for a few seconds at a single price (yes, on the 1M).... Even with that, it's still a guess if it's a breakout or a reversal.. So, on hindsight, indeed you could say "it turned the market", but apparently I am the only one who must trade in real time.. {image}
You need to study not the ballistic action that goes both ways, only study the speed against the trend. So you are looking at reversal speed.
Sometimes they need to tackle price on two to three candles to get their reversal wish.
I was watching EURUSD on M1, saw the action and did make quite a few pips so I do trade in real time. I posted that screen shot only 10 minutes after it occurred - AS YOU ASKED FOR -

Still, I am not claiming you can sit there, wait for that tick reversal speed, and trade without losing. Many times it is not clear enough to make a great winning trade with. BUT it does happen, price is manipulated and it is highly profitable if you are luckily enough to both see it and trade it.

PS. - You have no chance of seeing it on a pinbar/ wide ranging candle at the end of a move, the tick speed is like you said ballistic. I only notice it on a small nondescript candle often around a turning point. Look where you don't expect.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #463
  • May 5, 2020 11:57am May 5, 2020 11:57am
Quoting RickM
{quote} You need to study not the ballistic action that goes both ways, only study the speed against the trend. So you are looking at reversal speed. Sometimes they need to tackle price on two to three candles to get their reversal wish. I was watching EURUSD on M1, saw the action and did make quite a few pips so I do trade in real time. I posted that screen shot only 10 minutes after it occurred - AS YOU ASKED FOR - Still, I am not claiming you can sit there, wait for that tick reversal speed, and trade without losing. Many times it is not clear...
I hope you realise you are discussing with someone who has a limited knowledge of the forex market and criticises it from every angle because he lost a stupidly massive sum.
Gone to a better place
  • #464
  • May 5, 2020 8:24pm May 5, 2020 8:24pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Mingary I don't think you get it.
Truer word have never been spoken on FF...
  • #465
  • May 6, 2020 12:45am May 6, 2020 12:45am
Quoting RickM
{quote} You need to study not the ballistic action that goes both ways, only study the speed against the trend. So you are looking at reversal speed. Sometimes they need to tackle price on two to three candles to get their reversal wish. I was watching EURUSD on M1, saw the action and did make quite a few pips so I do trade in real time. I posted that screen shot only 10 minutes after it occurred - AS YOU ASKED FOR - Still, I am not claiming you can sit there, wait for that tick reversal speed, and trade without losing. Many times it is not clear...
I see it happening on average bars ("nondescript candle") as well. You chose a spike, so I chose a spike.
When you say "around a turning point", if I understand correctly, it's a turning point after the fact?
You evaluate what you perceive as market manipulation against other factors. other factors that are also subjective? In this case you would make the best educated guess possible?
  • #466
  • May 6, 2020 5:17am May 6, 2020 5:17am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} I see it happening on average bars ("nondescript candle") as well. You chose a spike, so I chose a spike. When you say "around a turning point", if I understand correctly, it's a turning point after the fact? You evaluate what you perceive as market manipulation against other factors. other factors that are also subjective? In this case you would make the best educated guess possible?
Massively overcomplicating things here. And finishing with a question. Are you lonely?
Gone to a better place
  • #467
  • Edited 6:09am May 6, 2020 5:56am | Edited 6:09am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Massively overcomplicating things here. And finishing with a question. Are you lonely?
That single statement tells me you are trying to desconstruct/understand something you know nothing about.
(And again with another personal attack.)
Not doing too well, aren't you ?

I don't think you belong here:

"Forex Factory is not only dedicated to supporting traders, but also to defending against all that misinforms, deceives, or otherwise disadvantages traders. At Forex Factory, distinguishing the phony from the real is high priority."
  • #468
  • May 6, 2020 6:21am May 6, 2020 6:21am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} That single statement tells me you are trying to desconstruct/understand something you know nothing about. (And again with another personal attack.) Not doing too well, aren't you ? I don't think you belong here: "Forex Factory is not only dedicated to supporting traders, but also to defending against all that misinforms, deceives, or otherwise disadvantages traders. At Forex Factory, distinguishing the phony from the real is high priority."

That's the spirit!
Gone to a better place
  • #469
  • May 6, 2020 10:55am May 6, 2020 10:55am
All financial markets are just fractal noise, plus or minus a bias. Throw in some S/R levels based on trader psychology (mostly at key price levels), and you have a market chart. So yes, the markets do have a sense of randomness, and plenty of indicators only work because of how much they are used and that usage moves the market (VWAP, for example). Though skeptics claim that trading is throwing money at random noise and essentially gambling, trading is about putting the odds in your favor, whereas in gambling, the odds are never in your favor.

I'll drop a lesser-known gem: Hurst Exponent.
Used to determine whether a fractal time series is a random walk, trending, consolidating, or mean reverting.
(Using hurt exponent to detect trending/consolidating markets combined with a conservative grid strategy works wonders)
It was not initially created to analyze financial markets, this seems to be a trend in great financial analysis techniques.

tldr; even though markets consist of random fractal noise, it can still be analyzed and taken advantage of.
  • #470
  • May 6, 2020 11:29am May 6, 2020 11:29am
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Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -394
  • #471
  • May 6, 2020 3:24pm May 6, 2020 3:24pm
I see more a game where there are no winners, just losers to commission. The only winners are the market makers and the brokers. I have seen many strategies that work sometimes, but over the long term it normalizes. If it is possible, the way I think you could do it is by getting long or short at extremes. Have tried many trend following strategies. They are all too inconsistent and generate too many signals.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #472
  • Edited 3:53pm May 6, 2020 3:40pm | Edited 3:53pm
Quoting Rennaissance
I see more a game where there are no winners, just losers to commission. The only winners are the market makers and the brokers. I have seen many strategies that work sometimes, but over the long term it normalizes. If it is possible, the way I think you could do it is by getting long or short at extremes. Have tried many trend following strategies. They are all too inconsistent and generate too many signals.
Most people learn to trade the same way, 98% of traders fail in the long run.
There are advantages retailers have over any institution and large organizations yet I have never seen a trading method that attempted to capitalize on it.
1. Think about this, in all your time trading have you ever seen a market spike up ( can also be downward). ( gain momentum )
2. Then at the top transition into a slow grind continuing up?
  • #473
  • May 6, 2020 4:43pm May 6, 2020 4:43pm
You can't predict the market by itself especially not Forex, there are S/R but their basically 50/50, a coin toss.
i lose money for a living
  • #474
  • May 6, 2020 4:53pm May 6, 2020 4:53pm
Quoting tylerbose
You can't predict the market by itself especially not Forex, there are S/R but their basically 50/50, a coin toss.
Then stop predicting and wait for exhaustion.
Now you have 80/20
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #475
  • May 6, 2020 5:38pm May 6, 2020 5:38pm
Quoting AmmaBoss
{quote} Most people learn to trade the same way, 98% of traders fail in the long run. There are advantages retailers have over any institution and large organizations yet I have never seen a trading method that attempted to capitalize on it. 1. Think about this, in all your time trading have you ever seen a market spike up ( can also be downward). ( gain momentum ) 2. Then at the top transition into a slow grind continuing up?
Yeah have seen that a lot.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #476
  • May 6, 2020 5:42pm May 6, 2020 5:42pm
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} i know you are a good guy R, you don't want ppl to lose... you are like me! hahaha brokers are nothing more than gamblers.. especially NDD brokers
Yeah, just want to warn people. Especially because when I started no even told me about randomness in the markets. Was just trying to get better, it never crossed my mind that I might be involved in a fruitless pursuit.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #477
  • May 6, 2020 6:46pm May 6, 2020 6:46pm

Quote
''My experience is that exchange markets have become so efficient that virtually all relevant information is embedded almost instantaneously in exchange rates to the point that anticipating movements in major currencies is rarely possible. The exceptions to this conclusion are those few cases of successful speculation in which governments have tried and failed to support a particular exchange rate.

Quote

Nonetheless, despite extensive efforts on the part of analysts, to my knowledge, no model projecting directional movements in exchange rates

...
[/left]

-Alan Greenspan

When you see it, BET big.
  • #478
  • May 6, 2020 6:49pm May 6, 2020 6:49pm
Is the FX market random ?
(all of the time or some of the time or what % and when during the day)

Is the FX market manipulated ?
(all of the time or some of the time or what % and when during the day)


These are all fair questions, with no definitive answer imo, only our personal assumptions.


As you can only trade based on the “my assumptions” of the market then the only thing really needed to be asked of yourself as a trader is ….

Am I profitable at trading ‘consistently enough’ to indicate that my view of the market is in a close enough line WITH the market ?


If yes, continue trading (and improve whenever possible).

If not, then a trader must be OUT OF LINE / TUNE with the actual market.
(There can really be no other explanation, regardless of whether the FX market is random or manipulated or neither or both or maybe a certain % at different times during the day.)


And if not profitable ‘consistently enough’, then there MUST be a need to change a view, assumption, or method pretty damn quickly before an a/c goes to zero and the trader is left with a bad taste in their mouth &/or confusion about the market.


So if just ONE person is successful in the FX market 'consistently enough', then it IS possible to be successful (by definition).

Regardless of whether 90% or 95% or whatever number of traders lose, ‘consistently enough’.


If ones current position of a ‘reasonably profitable consistency’ isn't, or cannot be attained by a change of outlook or perception or method or whatever, then DO NOT trade in this market, simple as that.

An interesting topic though. Postings show everybody else our own perceptions and personal views of the market (despite whatever the FX market actually is).

Good fortunes to all.
  • #479
  • May 6, 2020 6:59pm May 6, 2020 6:59pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Then stop predicting and wait for exhaustion. Now you have 80/20
"just buy low and sell high bro"

Ok.
i lose money for a living
  • #480
  • May 6, 2020 8:34pm May 6, 2020 8:34pm
Quoting tylerbose
{quote} "just buy low and sell high bro" Ok.
What is low and what is High?
When you see it, BET big.
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