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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #1,261
  • Apr 27, 2020 11:52am Apr 27, 2020 11:52am
Quoting Edd111111
Perhaps you should do both Igor, after all a rounded education is a better education. Maybe offer a discount for the both of them ?
unlikely I will make them both... rather all-in-one kind...)))
  • #1,262
  • Edited 12:41pm Apr 27, 2020 12:23pm | Edited 12:41pm
Quoting Geresnis
to short the markets is realy most dangerous thing, since fiat money is infinite, just remember this crisis has cost 10x what in 2008, next one maybe 100x that number. but again these are never ending zeros which cost nothing to produce, that just create infation at some point. we had some 10 % yearly inflation globaly. since 2008, now this number will be closer to 20% from next year. just a guess.

from my perspective, the previous economic model based on infinitive consumption growth is already as good as dead... therefore the world economy, pretty much like terminally ill people and their relatives, is set to go through all the well known emotional "five stages of grief"... those are: denial - anger - depression - bargaining - acceptance... apparently the economy will pass through all the stages one by one before being taken care of by the "undertakers" pictured on the photo collage posted above... right now it's in the the very first "denial" stage... therefore the economic data has become completely irrelevant in regards to the financial markets... it's been disconnected, totally ignored and recent markets' behaviors and moves are no longer capable of reflecting objective economic reality... some signs of the next stage, which is "anger",are now slowly developing right before our eyes in the form of an attempt of some countries like USA, France and some others to blame WHO and China for spreading COVID-19 worldwide... it seems to me that the market prices will catch up with reality during the third stage, which is "depression"... have no idea how long it might take but over the course of that stage the stock markets are likely ( almost certainly, in my view ) to revisit their sub 2008-9 trading levels...
  • #1,263
  • Apr 27, 2020 12:47pm Apr 27, 2020 12:47pm
Quoting Argo
Shorting or going long dont matter as long as profits are collected. But if we are talking about next market move here is my couple of lines and possible patterns. Appears price is in the channel and possible diamond like formation is formed (forming) pointing to the upside targets. {image}
technically it's still possible for the S&P and DJIA to revisit their very tops in order to form a second main diagonal of a potential dual-diagonal diamond... would become a once in a lifetime opportunity to short them all and to sit on those shorts for a period of two to three years till they reach sub 2008-9 levels...
  • #1,264
  • Apr 27, 2020 2:47pm Apr 27, 2020 2:47pm
Hi Igor,
What do you think the chance of the S&P 500 staying above 2950 for more than a month are ? > 50% ?
  • #1,265
  • Apr 27, 2020 5:52pm Apr 27, 2020 5:52pm
Quoting Edd111111
Hi Igor, What do you think the chance of the S&P 500 staying above 2950 for more than a month are ? > 50% ?
from my perspective, timing is almost impossible to predict (unlike levels and directions )...
  • #1,266
  • Apr 28, 2020 9:00pm Apr 28, 2020 9:00pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} I think that the most probable future is depicted on this picture... {image}
hi sir Igor, are you trying to say the new Yalta will prevent the Great Depression 2.0, that something has to change? Or this is post GD?
  • #1,267
  • Edited Apr 29, 2020 4:51am Apr 28, 2020 11:55pm | Edited Apr 29, 2020 4:51am
Quoting eFFx168
{quote} hi sir Igor, are you trying to say the new Yalta will prevent the Great Depression 2.0, that something has to change? Or this is post GD?
Great Depression 2.0 is not preventable because it's already here... the only thing that so far doesn't allow to admit it is the fact that the World is now at the very first "denial" stage of the emotional chain of grief... apparently it substituted WWIII, but perhaps the only difference in its consequences is gonna be lesser harm to the Earth environment... though not guaranteed either because local regional wars and civil wars are likely to take place as well... to build a new structure on the same lot the previous one has to be demolished first... before "new Yalta" takes place the liberal globalist model of the economy and its political base (that have obviously failed in their ruling policies what actually caused and led to this very crisis), must admit their defeat and surrender to the conservative winners... so, everyone has to realize first that the economy cannot be just jump started and the return to "business as usual" is no longer possible...
  • #1,268
  • Apr 29, 2020 8:51am Apr 29, 2020 8:51am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} Great Depression 2.0 is not preventable because it's already here... the only thing that so far doesn't allow to admit it is the fact that the World is now at the very first "denial" stage of the emotional chain of grief... apparently it substituted WWIII, but perhaps the only difference in its consequences is gonna be lesser harm to the Earth environment... though not guaranteed either because local regional wars and civil wars are likely to take place as well... to build a new structure on the same lot the previous one has to be demolished...

...so Pres. Trump is not actually jump starting the economy but nationalizing the Fed and Treasury when everyone is in-debt to the gov't?
  • #1,269
  • Apr 29, 2020 10:18am Apr 29, 2020 10:18am
Quoting eFFx168
{quote} ...so Pres. Trump is not actually jump starting the economy but nationalizing the Fed and Treasury when everyone is in-debt to the gov't?
that's the plan as it seems... also, unlike the Chinese leader, Trump and Putin are struggling to win the battle against their domestic liberals... not so easy task...
  • #1,270
  • Apr 30, 2020 9:41pm Apr 30, 2020 9:41pm
Trump's battle cry "make America great again" sound prophetic, how can you be great when your already great, it means you have to go down first then rise and be great again.. it seems the universe use Trump as another conductor in your theory of everything
  • #1,271
  • Edited 11:06pm Apr 30, 2020 10:36pm | Edited 11:06pm
Quoting eFFx168
Trump's battle cry "make America great again" sound prophetic, how can you be great when your already great, it means you have to go down first then rise and be great again.. it seems the universe use Trump as another conductor in your theory of everything
in order to understand what Trump means by using his motto about "making America great again" someone has to listen some early warnings by Russian KGB agent and defector to the West Yuri Bezmenov... here is the link to his interview given to some Canadian TV station in early 1980-th... perhaps he is one of the greatest "prophets" ever existed, because, if to take a look around, the Western World is now exactly as he warned against almost 40 years ago... he was also lecturing some students in LA and even a group of FBI agents and no one back then seems to believe him that those things are possible... however almost everything that he's been talking about long time ago came true by nowadays... ( after watching this video I would also strongly recommend reading people's comments down below ) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgmg2VFX058
  • #1,272
  • May 2, 2020 4:09am May 2, 2020 4:09am
Hi Igor,

You have given your prediction about the SP500 eventually retesting its 2008 lows.
There's a common belief on Wall Street that the Fed's got their backs: even though it's not actually buying anything at the moment,
it may turn on its printing press and thus effectively place a hard floor on the stocks & bonds should a major sell-off start again.
What is your take on this?
  • #1,273
  • May 2, 2020 10:09am May 2, 2020 10:09am
Quoting saqotito
Hi Igor, You have given your prediction about the SP500 eventually retesting its 2008 lows. There's a common belief on Wall Street that the Fed's got their backs: even though it's not actually buying anything at the moment, it may turn on its printing press and thus effectively place a hard floor on the stocks & bonds should a major sell-off start again. What is your take on this?
That was already answered. Should end same as for Oil. Leveraged markets might deflate and some things like food probably will get higher inflation.
  • #1,274
  • May 2, 2020 10:17am May 2, 2020 10:17am
Quoting saqotito
Hi Igor, You have given your prediction about the SP500 eventually retesting its 2008 lows. There's a common belief on Wall Street that the Fed's got their backs: even though it's not actually buying anything at the moment, it may turn on its printing press and thus effectively place a hard floor on the stocks & bonds should a major sell-off start again. What is your take on this?
of course, I have an answer to your question but it's too long to write here in details... though the main idea is simple... every closed system has a limit for growth and effectiveness... current one is not an exception... the money have been pumped into it since at least 2008 and the consumer based stimulus economy is in place since Reagan... there are two types of capital exist: financial capital and industrial capital... after the WWII the share of of the financial capital used to be only 5% in total... right now it's above 50% which means that there is an huge part of the economy that doesn't actually produce anything but more money... it seems that current crisis will fix that inequality as otherwise the outcome will be no other than hyperinflation...
  • #1,275
  • Edited 6:57am May 3, 2020 6:21am | Edited 6:57am
Quoting Geresnis
{quote} That was already answered. Should end same as for Oil. Leveraged markets might deflate and some things like food probably will get higher inflation.


The liberal economic model (the very financial globalism that has been talked about so much lately) has come to an end. It can’t be reanimated in any way; well, even if you jump out of your pants, its potential has been exhausted and nothing can be done here. All attempts to come up with an alternative design ended up significantly increasing the potential for a recession. But! Institutions and technologies have not gone away, and most importantly, people grown to solve liberal problems.
Some of them (which are dumber and / or simpler) continue to cling to the elite of the “Western” global project. They will have a hard time, but, due to their obviously negative influence on society, they are not very sorry for them. But there are others. Since the Russian elite for 30 years was formed almost exclusively (in the 90s) and to a large extent at another time from liberals, there are very, very many of them, and among them there are those who want to “break through at least as a carcass, even as a stuffed animal” into new world. Moreover, by virtue of control over the state’s ideological machine (the scale of this control, in fact, shows censorship restrictions and various disgusting series on the country's main television channels), they are trying to prove to everyone and everyone that there simply is no alternative to liberal methods and institutions of government.
Actually, in the economy we see this with the naked eye. Today in our state there are simply no expert institutions serving the government and the Central Bank that would not implement the most aggressive methods of liberal ideology. Representatives of alternative schools were exterminated with an “iron hand” and, in the end, about 10 years ago they achieved an almost complete victory. And now we see that any attempts to discuss something in the economy there end up with meaningless mantras, which even irritate the calmest people are content with us.
And the same situation in almost all areas of life. At the same time, some aspects of liberal ideology (which in everyday life was called the “digital concentration camp”), in general, found understanding in the logic of bureaucracy. Any, not only Russian, which is clearly visible in China, and in Western Europe, and in the USA. The essence of this model is very simple: people should not have freedom. Since there are much more “worthy” people who have the right to write certain rules, they are binding. Well, of course, there must be institutions and technologies that ensure compliance with these rules.
In general, there is a rather entertaining conflict here. The fact is that the word “liberalism” for all people is associated with a philosophical term that implies maximum freedom. In reality, political liberalism is the most totalitarian system in the world, providing power to transnational bankers, unlimited by anything. But they came up with a set of measures (liquidation of education, emission stimulation of unlimited consumption, severe restrictions on the discussion of the main civilizational problems) they called the “liberal model” and they are known by this term. Do not forget, by the way, even juvenile justice. Actually, this reception is known.
Well, really, what kind of “freedom of enterprise” can we talk about if it is necessary to develop it so that, on the one hand, you, as an entrepreneur, get a loan from the bank, and, on the other, your potential buyer receives the same bank loan to buy? In this situation, everything depends only on the bank, it is he who determines who will win the competition and who in general will have the right to exist. Not to mention that it is the bank that will determine the real value of the goods (services) and the size of your profit.
Mikhail Khazin
  • #1,276
  • May 3, 2020 6:47am May 3, 2020 6:47am
Wow ! in the 60's we wrote word jazz
in the 90's i wrote poems,
that is an incredible piece of writing @!
digesting ...!
Old Dog Kiwi
  • #1,277
  • May 3, 2020 7:00am May 3, 2020 7:00am
Quoting aquavox
Wow ! in the 60's we wrote word jazz in the 90's i wrote poems, that is an incredible piece of writing @! digesting ...!
this is what actually Trump is against... this is why he wants to "make America great again" by taking control out of the global totalitarian liberalism hands...
  • #1,278
  • May 3, 2020 4:47pm May 3, 2020 4:47pm
Quoting Igrok
after the WWII the share of of the financial capital used to be only 5% in total... right now it's above 50% which means that there is an huge part of the economy that doesn't actually produce anything but more money... it seems that current crisis will fix that inequality as otherwise the outcome will be no other than hyperinflation...
Yes, a hyperinflation is quite logical in these circumstances but it's bullish for the stock market in nominal terms, is it not?
Going down to the 2008 lows (given that today both Dow Jones and S&P 500 are near its all time highs) is, on the contrary, deflationary. How do you reconcile these two observations? What am I missing here?

I've been following your (and M.Khazin's) work at Avrora, by the way. Really cool stuff. Truly eye opening.
  • #1,279
  • May 3, 2020 6:30pm May 3, 2020 6:30pm
Quoting saqotito
{quote} Yes, a hyperinflation is quite logical in these circumstances but it's bullish for the stock market in nominal terms, is it not? Going down to the 2008 lows (given that today both Dow Jones and S&P 500 are near its all time highs) is, on the contrary, deflationary. How do you reconcile these two observations? What am I missing here?
I already mentioned here numerous times that no fundamental factors or reasons can somehow cancel, defy, change or invalidate technical picture... the market always comes to predefined levels no matter what...and there is always a fundamental explanation for such a behavior in retrospect...

Quoting saqotito
{quote}I've been following your (and M.Khazin's) work at Avrora, by the way. Really cool stuff. Truly eye opening.
thank you... doing our best...
  • #1,280
  • May 3, 2020 6:40pm May 3, 2020 6:40pm
today I received from my new friend LK, a wonderful person, a very curious and extraordinary scientist, this chart ... this is a transcript of the audio recording of the bee swarm activity in the hive ... I suppose I could easily be able to "trade" it using the same graphical method analysis and forecasting, which I have developed for financial markets ...
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