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EURUSD only

  • #108,621
  • May 2, 2020 4:55am May 2, 2020 4:55am
Quoting Traderview
My view for the next week. This is in 1hr and 4hr. {image} {image}
You nailed it here, mate....
  • #108,622
  • May 2, 2020 6:44am May 2, 2020 6:44am
A programmer's interpretations
  • #108,623
  • May 2, 2020 6:51am May 2, 2020 6:51am
EU might drop some next week...
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #108,624
  • May 2, 2020 7:15am May 2, 2020 7:15am
I think this trend just start begin. Returning on Monday will give a good chance to buy.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Keep the faith and keep going
  • #108,625
  • May 2, 2020 7:58am May 2, 2020 7:58am
Quoting Compound
I will close the EUR-USD cycle with 292 pips. if there is an upward movement I will update again. As usual, I stick to 250-300 pips / cycle. and take correction at fibo 61.8 on each trend. And I get the picture of the first lowest price that goes to 1.0839 and if the trend bear the destination price is between 1.07677-1.07177 However, if 1.0839 only becomes a correction point, the price will rise in the range of 1.1089-1.1139 This is the picture of the cycle that I used to see the market roughly Stay Green {image} Edit: Wrong number writing on correction...
There is another error: The place where you stated "164 pips" should be "209 pips"... Yeah.. when sleepy this is normal..

Anyway.. my warning is: this logic of yours is temporary.. It works because market is sort of sideways.. On strong trending seasons your "sticking to 250-300 pips cycle" logic can ruin your gains.. So careful and adjust based on trending or non-trending situations.. Cheers

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #108,626
  • May 2, 2020 8:58am May 2, 2020 8:58am
H4 Status Update

Based on Magnetics, there are lots of possibilities and "if"s for next week.. Instead of speculating where price might go I basically will watch two levels:

  1. I will watch if 1.1026 resists or not!
  2. I will watch if 1.0937 supports or not!
  3. For now bulls have the upper hand!
  4. The scenario of my personal choice though would be that price first goes a little lower to retest 1.0937 and then bounces up and eventually breaks 1.1026 and arrives at my magnetic target sitting around 1.1070 area! (Remember that 1.1048 is also still 2nd target of bullish Gartley, so my scenario gets some support from that).. BUT since nobody knows what's next, it's best to trade what you see.. Time will tell anyway..

Stay Green

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-H4-Status-Update.png Size: 36 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #108,627
  • May 2, 2020 9:26am May 2, 2020 9:26am
As i said yesterday, breakout on 4h has TP @ .1050

So these are 3 way to go:

- direct
- little retrace
- normal retrace

Stay SAFE, stay GREEN
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 22 KB
  • #108,628
  • May 2, 2020 9:31am May 2, 2020 9:31am
S/R Levels for Next Week

  1. As you can see here too we are now above mid-level of total range: 1.0937 which will probably act as support now.
  2. Bulls also get a little additional support from previous week's mid level: 1.0912
  3. Weekly bull target 1.1062 is also parallel with targets on intraday timeframes..
  4. Overall it wouldn't be wrong to say that weekly situation is in sync with H4 and H1..
  5. On weekly, bulls have the upper hand as well..

Stay Green

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-Weekly-Status-Update.png Size: 26 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #108,629
  • Edited 1:42pm May 2, 2020 1:22pm | Edited 1:42pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} There is another error: The place where you stated "164 pips" should be "209 pips"... Yeah.. when sleepy this is normal.. Anyway.. my warning is: this logic of yours is temporary.. It works because market is sort of sideways.. On strong trending seasons your "sticking to 250-300 pips cycle" logic can ruin your gains.. So careful and adjust based on trending or non-trending situations.. Cheers Stay Green
Thank you for the critic, Ata. I wrote 164 pip wrong, I should have 209 pip. but it does not change the total movement of 292 pips (in the yellow line as a fibo marker).
Not only sideways. maybe I just say piece by piece. I want to explain more, but I don't want to be considered patronizing.

I will talk in some detail.
Basically I use the reading of the Fibo movement on D1 as a big trend.
There is no way the price will go directly to the destination, so I will divide the trend piece by piece.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FIBO D1.png Size: 18 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FIBO D1 (2).png Size: 19 KB


Then I looked deeper. I say every cycle is 250-300 pips. of course the market does not necessarily follow my will. then there is a cumulative if the trend continues.
For example, in the picture the initial movement rose 252 pips, then 342 pips. Why did I take 342 pips. because there is no significant correction when in the 250-300 pip range.
after 342 pips there is a correction. and at least the movement (X + 342 pip): 2 = 250-300Pip
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H4.png Size: 26 KB


So the latest cycle is 292 pips (I corrected the pip on the wrong writing daily) if it moves beyond 300pip I would consider Long
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H4 (2).png Size: 27 KB


Broader picture
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I only use 1 indicator other than FIbo which is SemaphoreAlert (except when scalping), on TF H4 to see boundaries
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 SemaforAlert.ex4   11 KB | 205 downloads


Stay Green

Edit: Sorry there was forgotten. I also use Exponential Moving Average 90 (close)
There is no perfect system
  • #108,630
  • May 2, 2020 3:38pm May 2, 2020 3:38pm
Quoting Compound
{quote} Thank you for the critic, Ata. I wrote 164 pip wrong, I should have 209 pip. but it does not change the total movement of 292 pips (in the yellow line as a fibo marker). Not only sideways. maybe I just say piece by piece. I want to explain more, but I don't want to be considered patronizing. I will talk in some detail. Basically I use the reading of the Fibo movement on D1 as a big trend. There is no way the price will go directly to the destination, so I will divide the trend piece by piece. {image} {image} Then I looked deeper. I say...
Okay I got all your detailed explanations.. and I can connect the dots.. BUT one thing that is still missing here is how you came up with this 250-300 pips range????? What does that mean "I say"????? So you randomly came up with this range without going back in history? I went to 2 years into the past and still can not see any data showing a "static" range of 250-300 pips for EURUSD.. That part is still a mystery and I still claim your 250-300 pips range will sooner or later change drastically once a very large trend starts.. For example, between 2014 May and 2015 May and between 2017 March and 2018 February your strategy would terribly mislead you since those were the years of strong trends.. Not many corrections at all.. Just be careful in the longer run! That's all I am saying.. Cheers..

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #108,631
  • May 2, 2020 4:47pm May 2, 2020 4:47pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Okay I got all your detailed explanations.. and I can connect the dots.. BUT one thing that is still missing here is how you came up with this 250-300 pips range????? What does that mean "I say"????? So you randomly came up with this range without going back in history? I went to 2 years into the past and still can not see any data showing a "static" range of 250-300 pips for EURUSD.. That part is still a mystery and I still claim your 250-300 pips range will sooner or later change drastically once a very large trend starts.. For example,...
I did not make the numbers 250-300 randomly
I calculate from the average movement of EURUSD in one cycle. Price volatility often changes, but from my observation that figure is safest.

As you said in that year there was no correction. The question is from which point of view?
every movement there is a correction.

If you look at TF D1 and above it will be like a straight line but seen from a smaller TF will be different.

What is clear, there are times when my system does not work as well as yours. But I was prepared with the consequences.
There is no perfect system
  • #108,632
  • May 2, 2020 8:01pm May 2, 2020 8:01pm
Quoting Compound
{quote} I did not make the numbers 250-300 randomly I calculate from the average movement of EURUSD in one cycle. Price volatility often changes, but from my observation that figure is safest. As you said in that year there was no correction. The question is from which point of view? every movement there is a correction. If you look at TF D1 and above it will be like a straight line but seen from a smaller TF will be different. What is clear, there are times when my system does not work as well as yours. But I was prepared with the consequences....
Nothing you explained so far has answered my one and only question.. It's like you are ignoring it.. But never mind.. I surrender.. If it works for you no worries.. I asked out of curiosity, nothing more.. Wishing you best of luck with your system.. Cheers

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #108,633
  • May 2, 2020 11:23pm May 2, 2020 11:23pm
Why XE shows Eur/Usd 1.109
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?f...o=USD&view=12h
Is there a big Gap at monday?
I don't know. Please help me
  • #108,634
  • May 3, 2020 1:33am May 3, 2020 1:33am
Quoting Compound
{quote} I did not make the numbers 250-300 randomly I calculate from the average movement of EURUSD in one cycle. Price volatility often changes, but from my observation that figure is safest. As you said in that year there was no correction. The question is from which point of view? every movement there is a correction. If you look at TF D1 and above it will be like a straight line but seen from a smaller TF will be different. What is clear, there are times when my system does not work as well as yours. But I was prepared with the consequences....
To get your target of below 1.06, what you need was the close of last month should have been below 1.08. We just broke the upper channel as many other people not realizing. If you could look at it carefully on monthly the candle patterns are obvious. If we see an inverted hammer or a more bearish monthly than the last month, we definitely will see the downwards.

Remember, last month's low was 1.0725, and this whole bearish cycle low was 1.0630, to go below this level, market doesn't have to come all the way to the 1.10, a 280 pips travel up and go down the same path over and over again, which we were from 2nd half of march up until end of April.

There is only one caveat though, IF WE SEE A WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 1.0819 - 1.08 IN THE NEXT WEEK OR SO, then YOU HAVE MY ATTENTION FOR THE 1.06.

For bulls, There's only two upper target. 1st Target: 1.1084 23% Fib on Monthly given the bottom 1.06ish, we will surely see pullback back to 1.10 and possibly a little below.
2nd Target: 1.1170, which is Weekly and Monthly Resistance.

Nothing Personal. Just a SHOUT OUT from Another.

Trade Safe and Stay Safe.
  • #108,635
  • May 3, 2020 5:17am May 3, 2020 5:17am
Quoting Compound
{quote} Thank you for the critic, Ata. I wrote 164 pip wrong, I should have 209 pip. but it does not change the total movement of 292 pips (in the yellow line as a fibo marker). Not only sideways. maybe I just say piece by piece. I want to explain more, but I don't want to be considered patronizing. I will talk in some detail. Basically I use the reading of the Fibo movement on D1 as a big trend. There is no way the price will go directly to the destination, so I will divide the trend piece by piece. {image} {image} Then I looked deeper. I say every...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: regression_dcp_quadratic.png Size: 91 KB
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #108,636
  • May 3, 2020 5:37am May 3, 2020 5:37am
EURUSD broke out as expected. Now we have more opportunities. Here is my analysis:

Inserted Video
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #108,637
  • Edited 9:17am May 3, 2020 9:05am | Edited 9:17am
I don't care if the target in D1 fibo is not reached. I use it for the big picture only
Quoting Traderview
{quote} To get your target of below 1.06, what you need was the close of last month should have been below 1.08. We just broke the upper channel as many other people not realizing. If you could look at it carefully on monthly the candle patterns are obvious. If we see an inverted hammer or a more bearish monthly than the last month, we definitely will see the downwards. Remember, last month's low was 1.0725, and this whole bearish cycle low was 1.0630, to go below this level, market doesn't have to come all the way to the 1.10, a 280 pips travel...
that's right ... that's why I followed the direction of the 250-300 pip cycle. because it is less risky. I don't care if the target in D1 fibo is not reached. I use it for the big picture only

Quoting v2vboni
{quote} {image}
thank you for the explanation
Can you share the indicator. all this time I counted manually
There is no perfect system
  • #108,638
  • May 3, 2020 9:15am May 3, 2020 9:15am
EUR/USD - Strongly Sell On Monday
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FX.PNG Size: 88 KB
  • #108,639
  • May 3, 2020 9:56am May 3, 2020 9:56am
I believe EU will pull back and move up to around 1.105 first.
  • #108,640
  • May 3, 2020 10:24am May 3, 2020 10:24am
Quoting v2vboni
{quote} {image}
He was giving me a whole essay about everything I didn't ask except the part I asked and here you come with the perfect answer.. Dominant Cycle period it is.. Thanks.. That clarifies it all..

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
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