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Real or Algo

  • #221
  • Apr 30, 2020 8:14pm Apr 30, 2020 8:14pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} If you can win 90% of every trade that you enter, attempting to save those losing 10% seems very smart to me. Why are traders so quick to take the loss. It seems discussions on hedging provokes strong opinions amongst traders, probably deserves another thread in itself.
I'm not for or against sl or hedge.
To each his own.

I'm a sl trader. SL set by EA at point of entry giving a pre-determined cost of transaction.

Another trader may opt for hedge set by EA at point of entry giving a pre-determined exposure to drawdown.

If I'm not wrong hedge comes with extra cost.
Although I've read a hedge thread by Bushy that says otherwise.

The benefit of hedge strategy is connecting trade in drawdown to the next trade.
A psychology thing. If lock and unlock works for practitioners good.
Know what you trade
  • #222
  • Apr 30, 2020 10:23pm Apr 30, 2020 10:23pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} If you can win 90% of every trade that you enter, attempting to save those losing 10% seems very smart to me. Why are traders so quick to take the loss. It seems discussions on hedging provokes strong opinions amongst traders, probably deserves another thread in itself.
If you buy 1lot and place a stop 15 pips below, that stop is a 1 lot sell pending order, when it gets hit you will be "hedged". Do you understand that both the stop loss and the hedge do exactly the same thing. That's why its really stupid to say that by hedging you havent loss when you have. Next time you trade look at your equity when you hedge, then try with a stop and look at the equity, both will have the same result.
  • #223
  • May 1, 2020 12:18am May 1, 2020 12:18am
Quoting STrading
{quote} If you buy 1lot and place a stop 15 pips below, that stop is a 1 lot sell pending order, when it gets hit you will be "hedged". Do you understand that both the stop loss and the hedge do exactly the same thing. That's why its really stupid to say that by hedging you havent loss when you have. Next time you trade look at your equity when you hedge, then try with a stop and look at the equity, both will have the same result.
Hi STrading

I never said my equity was not at a decreased value, I said my account balance remains unchanged till I close trades. I use my equity as cheap credit to increase my account balance by adding additional trades to close a basket of trades when next in profit. It makes perfect sense.
What do home investors do when buying a investment property, they borrow against their home equity in an attempt to grow their account balance.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #224
  • May 1, 2020 12:32am May 1, 2020 12:32am
yeah, taking opposit position to our main trade is hedging. Hedging is temporary relaxation from stop out fear.
Two thing are important while placeing hedge, 1. Right entry, 2. Right exit.
If some mistake made it will prove dangerous with wide minus gap.
The best is the percentage allocation of risk over equity per trade.
And beliving on our trade with faith.
Moral - accept loss when trying for gain. No pain No gain. Gd luck.
  • #225
  • May 1, 2020 4:14am May 1, 2020 4:14am
Quoting Nikt
{quote} Expansions changed my day TODAY! I didn't get them till today and now applying them!And yes I agree it is mathematical relation and price "control" to prevent it from going nuts. Expansions and targets are the new black for me! Thx for posting this D
When u talk about expansions do u mean when price has been trading in a tight range there's a high probability it will eventually fill out the average daily range for that instrument? And would a stop run that happens at the extreme of the average daily range therefore be a higher probability candidate for a reversal trade?

Thanks
DM
  • #226
  • May 1, 2020 4:19am May 1, 2020 4:19am
Trades from yesterday and today, sweep the lows, break the highs, retest order block, price expansion.

Simple stuff.

EUR/AUD
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USD/JPY
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NZD/CHF
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EUR/GBP
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  • #227
  • May 1, 2020 4:21am May 1, 2020 4:21am
Quoting moodybot
I knew as soon as the word hedge was mentioned it would open a can of worms...for and against.. Can a hedge be closed without incurring cost such as how Rick may use a Hedge?
Oops..I'm sorry if I kinda derailed the thread and caused a full on hedge discussion. I don't PERSONALLY believe in hedging for intraday trading as to me it just seems like extra trades and extra costs, but I fully respect RickM's reasons if it helps him PSYCHOLOGICALLY. Trading can be a battle of the mind, so anything that helps a trader gain an advantage in that department is worthwhile to them.
  • #228
  • May 1, 2020 4:29am May 1, 2020 4:29am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} Oops..I'm sorry if I kinda derailed the thread and caused a full on hedge discussion. I don't PERSONALLY believe in hedging for intraday trading as to me it just seems like extra trades and extra costs, but I fully respect RickM's reasons if it helps him PSYCHOLOGICALLY. Trading can be a battle of the mind, so anything that helps a trader gain an advantage in that department is worthwhile to them.
Open thread mate, as I mentioned previously, chatting may help someone, perhaps filling in a few gaps, so all good.
  • #229
  • May 1, 2020 10:14pm May 1, 2020 10:14pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} When u talk about expansions do u mean when price has been trading in a tight range there's a high probability it will eventually fill out the average daily range for that instrument? And would a stop run that happens at the extreme of the average daily range therefore be a higher probability candidate for a reversal trade? Thanks DM
Yes but also if the price is grinding and then jumps suddenly to a stop pool area.wait for that slight acceleration compared to all other candles

check Rick s post

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...6#post12895966
  • #230
  • Edited 1:44am May 2, 2020 1:20am | Edited 1:44am
Hi Danger-Mouse

Here is my 3 cents worth and how I see the market -

Price expansion is restricted because the market needs to maintain pools of orders very close to current current order flow. So the act of keeping price with an consolidation area tends to entice traders to bring their orders / stops closer to current price. If the Price expansion was not controlled, the spread size would quadruple and become so large, traders would not enter the market.
Therefore SOMETHING? limits this expansion to keep spreads sizes small, keep pools of orders close by and this seems to create fake resistance.

So here is the interesting thing, if that SOMETHING? wants to turn the market to limit expansion, it increases the speed of price to create wide ranging candles full of Hidden Gaps or just a serials of smaller candles that are not interlocked.
So Speed is the weapon of Choice for that something

Look at three trades I took last night on EURJPY around 11am Brisbane time. I was looking for speed near the end of a grind which can often been seen when the market creates wide ranging candles. These candles are full of hidden gaps because we know what the order flow does when it sees gaps?, it pulls back and closes them and perhaps starts a market reversal. I really want them to hit the target but those were too good not to trade.

Now I know traders will just raise the issue that supply & demand is the limiter that stops expansion - Well I have Proof its not both on spread sheet data and screen shots.
So something does limit price as well as seek Targets hundreds of pips away like Andy said - probably an Algo of some description

Lastly looking at that EURJPY chart, notice price likes to ride Georges first two bands.
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #231
  • May 2, 2020 1:34am May 2, 2020 1:34am
Quoting RickM
Hi Danger-Mouse Here is my 3 cents worth and how I see the market - Price expansion is restricted because the market needs to maintain pools of orders very close to current current order flow. So the act of keeping price with an consolidation area tends to entice traders to bring their orders / stops closer to current price. If the Price expansion was not controlled, the spread size would quadruple and become so large, traders would not enter the market. Therefore SOMETHING? limits this expansion to keep spreads sizes small, keep pools of orders...

Seriously, that is a top post Rick.
More information there in that one post than a huge amount of threads, current or bygone.
Thanks for posting, it’s going to help a lot of interested traders.

Andy
  • #232
  • May 2, 2020 4:36am May 2, 2020 4:36am
Quoting RickM
Hi Danger-Mouse Here is my 3 cents worth and how I see the market - Price expansion is restricted because the market needs to maintain pools of orders very close to current current order flow. So the act of keeping price with an consolidation area tends to entice traders to bring their orders / stops closer to current price. If the Price expansion was not controlled, the spread size would quadruple and become so large, traders would not enter the market. Therefore SOMETHING? limits this expansion to keep spreads sizes small, keep pools of orders...
Hi RickM,

Thanks for the detailed explanation on the above post.

I have a question regarding the day before that one (Thursday, 30 Apr 2020) as there was a major move up and, if I'm not mistaken, the move blew through all 8 of George's TMA level? The red line I marked is where I had my 8th (final) upper TMA band at that moment.

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I'm just wondering how you would handle special situations such as that day and would appreciate any pointers/hints regarding how to avoid/stay out/minimize losses on those kinds of market moves. If you entered on that kind of move, if you don't mind me asking, in which part of the move will you enter?

Also to avoid ambiguity, I attached below how I marked the targets according to George's posts.

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Thank you in advance for your or anyone's answer

Cheers,
Al
Entities should not be multiplied without necessity - Occam's razor
  • #233
  • May 2, 2020 5:00am May 2, 2020 5:00am
Quoting xRedStaRx
Trades from yesterday and today, sweep the lows, break the highs, retest order block, price expansion. Simple stuff. EUR/AUD {image} {image} USD/JPY {image} {image} NZD/CHF {image} {image} EUR/GBP {image} {image} {image}
I was reading all along in FF and got here in this forum. I needed to create a new account just to comment and participate in the discussion as I cannot retrieve my old account here for so many years.

I just want to ask Redstar on the following,
1. How do you look for good support and resistance to be ready in your trading?
2. Once the significant S/R breaks, how do you enter below it?

Thanks!
  • #234
  • May 2, 2020 7:21am May 2, 2020 7:21am
Quoting Frosty85
{quote} Hi RickM, Thanks for the detailed explanation on the above post. I have a question regarding the day before that one (Thursday, 30 Apr 2020) as there was a major move up and, if I'm not mistaken, the move blew through all 8 of George's TMA level? The red line I marked is where I had my 8th (final) upper TMA band at that moment. {image} I'm just wondering how you would handle special situations such as that day and would appreciate any pointers/hints regarding how to avoid/stay out/minimize losses on those kinds of market moves. If you entered...
Hi Al

Yes, I watched that move all evening but never took a trade.
Of course I am going to tell you what you already know - RED NEWS just before it moved and the range at that point of the day was only around 40% I think.
So over all the risk of selling against a move here was just a bad idea. I never want to trade near Red News, that's for the H4 / Daily's mad bastards.

But I have been known to get caught my self so if that was the case, i would have traded it like this. On hindsight, its easy of course.
Sell around the George's black band because this pair (EURJPY) likes to camp around this area a lot.
1.. Stick a hedge with this pair around 13 pips (EURJPY) because if you are wrong, better to keep the loss in equity small.
2.. Let it go and the task on M1 is to wait for a major pullback. If it pulls back then runs again, release the Buy order when you see it fails to take out the highest high. You will almost never lose on M1 if you wait for a large move, strong pullback, new high attempt that fails - take the sell.

In fact if the next one fails, i will buy you a carton of beer (M1 only)

So I would be looking to recover equity and perhaps make a few pips as a bonus. There was probably 25 pips there on that final sell if you held for a bit.
There were other better trades on the night that were low risk, this wasn't one.


Cheers
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #235
  • May 2, 2020 7:51am May 2, 2020 7:51am
finally I found a thread where George continues!))) Thank you! Here is my modest trading result for the last 2 months
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  • #236
  • May 2, 2020 7:55am May 2, 2020 7:55am
Quoting RickM
2.. Let it go and the task on M1 is to wait for a major pullback. If it pulls back then runs again, release the Buy order when you see it fails to take out the highest high. You will almost never lose on M1 if you wait for a large move, strong pullback, new high attempt that fails - take the sell. In fact if the next one fails.....
RickM, that's why I have written umpteen times on this forum NEVER reverse a SPIKE.

Whenever I see someone trade reverse a falling or rising market ala catch a falling knife, then pass it off as superb PA scalping skills from 10,000hrs screentime that's bs trading.

To add on to what you wrote, find a clear objective method to pinpoint the new lower high target. If you do this Rick's description of failed attempt is clear as daylight that comes with price level.
Know what you trade
  • #237
  • May 2, 2020 8:37am May 2, 2020 8:37am
No professional trader uses indicators for trades - maybe some will use MA or other basic stuff to have some orientation but that's it, they do not rely on it.
  • #238
  • May 2, 2020 8:59am May 2, 2020 8:59am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Al Yes, I watched that move all evening but never took a trade. Of course I am going to tell you what you already know - RED NEWS just before it moved and the range at that point of the day was only around 40% I think. So over all the risk of selling against a move here was just a bad idea. I never want to trade near Red News, that's for the H4 / Daily's mad bastards. But I have been known to get caught my self so if that was the case, i would have traded it like this. On hindsight, its easy of course. Sell around the George's black band...
Thank you for the time and effort for a detailed reply
Lots of important info in that post. Instantly copied and saved to personal study drive

Cheers,
Al
Entities should not be multiplied without necessity - Occam's razor
  • #239
  • May 2, 2020 10:53am May 2, 2020 10:53am
Quoting whitesta
Good to see you guys back in this thread..as per the first few posts we do see that price returns to those so called "support & resistance zones". Why psychology is most important is because we all can see these zones being created and price misses it by a pip or so then moves away, comes back to touch the zone a couple of times. The biggest problem for most is to use psychology to know when this zones will be broken to get to their targets. At times it reaches the target just after a couple of visits while at times the zones are strong for 5 plus...
Hello Whitesta ! It may be too late to reply to your post, but I just found this thread today) This is how I see this pair on H1, from a phone without TMA
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  • #240
  • Edited 1:27pm May 2, 2020 11:22am | Edited 1:27pm
hello to the whole family!

I want to share my entry on April 30 and show the M1 chart where I came from .. 133.120 .. Does it look like anything? Maybe this is one of George's filters?))
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