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  • #61
  • Edited 4:42pm Mar 10, 2020 4:18pm | Edited 4:42pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} EURUSD update => long long wick in play on W chart as expected => via very loud noise in financial newspapers ECB is ready to deliver as expected : 1) a 10bp cut on deposit rate (from -0.50% to -0.60%) 2) and, the real deal, an increase in private bonds purchase via their Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) : Increase by €20bns/month minimum + extension of eligibility...
Heard there are rumours in some IB trading rooms in Paris that expectations are as high as an increase by €40bns/month.
That would put global asset purchases around €60bns/months if confirmed. In other words, nearly as much as QE1.

That would guarantee a further and sharp retrace until next week's FOMC (huge) expectations enter in play. That's obviously very big but that would leave ECB with a nearly empty toolbox for the future (QE1's peak, reached in 2016, was €80bns/month) and, maybe more important, that will raise questions about what kind of bonds they are ready to buy... So it looks a bit doubtful to me. Are they so scared of what FED is cooking for next week as it could send EURUSD to very unhealthy levels for some EZ exporting economies (the ones set to be most affected by covid19 international trade's shock) ?

In any case, imo, min flow for the retrace is 1.122x, with the mildest expectations, ie. + €20bns/month (cf. previous post), I would be very happy with 1.109x, and, with a QE1 like, 1.099x/1.101x area (Previous ST Bottom & Current MT Bottom) looks the minimum flow, before next week's FOMC expectations take the upper hand.
  • #62
  • Mar 11, 2020 1:07pm Mar 11, 2020 1:07pm
ECB flows in total control of EURUSD.

EURUSD is slowly building a Top on H4. A break down of 1.121x on this TF and we will have a Top on H4 (hence why I called first target of the retrace swing @ 1.122x, the minimum retrace).

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  • #63
  • Mar 12, 2020 7:44am Mar 12, 2020 7:44am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} ... ? In any case, imo, min flow for the retrace is 1.122x, with the mildest expectations, ie. + €20bns/month (cf. previous post), I would be very happy with 1.109x, and, with a QE1 like, 1.099x/1.101x area (Previous ST Bottom & Current MT Bottom) looks the minimum flow, before next week's FOMC expectations take the upper hand.
In EURUSD, first target of retrace swing 1.122x hit

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Let's see now if we can get something more juicy with what ECB is going to deliver...
  • #64
  • Mar 12, 2020 7:57am Mar 12, 2020 7:57am
ECB statement in a nutshell:

-> no change in deposit rate, remains at -0.50%, a 10bp cut was expected but that was not the real deal (and, at the end, a no cut is a breather for the banking sector so not that bad news on that front)
-> LTRO++
-> CSPP++ (real deal imo) : additional envelope of €120bns that's big

==> Conclusion = Big

Eyeballing 1.109x here as second target of the retrace :

Quoting Replicant
{quote} ... ? In any case, imo, min flow for the retrace is 1.122x, with the mildest expectations, ie. + €20bns/month (cf. previous post), I would be very happy with 1.109x, and, with a QE1 like, 1.099x/1.101x area (Previous ST Bottom & Current MT Bottom) looks the minimum flow, before next week's FOMC expectations take the upper hand.
  • #65
  • Mar 12, 2020 8:05am Mar 12, 2020 8:05am
press conference coming, tone & semantics very important (more than ever given the context) to launch the flow to 1.109x and hopefully to final target 1.099x/1.101x.

In short, could (should?) be Largarde's what ever it takes moment
  • #66
  • Mar 12, 2020 8:31am Mar 12, 2020 8:31am
New Macro Projections expected too (bad to very bad)

latest ones :

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Press conference starting ...
  • #67
  • Mar 12, 2020 8:59am Mar 12, 2020 8:59am
Quoting Replicant
.. Press conference starting ...
über bold call for collective fiscal response is the main highlight among LTRO++ & CSPP++ details and (already outdated) revisions downs in EZ GDP/HICP

Quoting Replicant
{quote} ES has tested LT reversal down trigger @ 272x, hands bought the level but end of month is far away... It still has plenty of time to visit Winter 2018 Bottom (262x and extrem (rejection) @ 252x) before closing the month above 272x. {image}
Meanwhile... ES cleared 262x and looks set to clear extrem target @ 252x

ES currently trading inside Winter 2018 Bottom :

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  • #68
  • Mar 12, 2020 9:07am Mar 12, 2020 9:07am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} ES has tested LT reversal down trigger @ 272x, hands bought the level but end of month is far away... It still has plenty of time to visit Winter 2018 Bottom (262x and extrem (rejection) @ 252x) before closing the month above 272x. {image}
Final target 252x hit in ES

and FED coming next week...................................................==> looking for longs in the area is a no brainer imo
  • #69
  • Mar 12, 2020 9:13am Mar 12, 2020 9:13am
Quoting Replicant
press conference coming, tone & semantics very important (more than ever given the context) to launch the flow to 1.109x and hopefully to final target 1.099x/1.101x. In short, could (should?) be Largarde's what ever it takes moment
super checked

=========> 1.109x looks more than ever in play :

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  • #70
  • Mar 12, 2020 10:45am Mar 12, 2020 10:45am
Quoting Replicant
ECB statement in a nutshell: -> no change in deposit rate, remains at -0.50%, a 10bp cut was expected but that was not the real deal (and, at the end, a no cut is a breather for the banking sector so not that bad news on that front) -> LTRO++ -> CSPP++ (real deal imo) : additional envelope of €120bns that's big ==> Conclusion = Big Eyeballing 1.109x here as second target of the retrace : {quote}
1.109x main target of the retrace swing hit in EURUSD

1.109x is Major D1 Break Up

We are in the middle of the river :
Keeping the remaining shorts for final target @ 1.101x/1.099x
while starting to look for longs for the impulsive swing to 1.164x and 1.191x

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  • #71
  • Mar 12, 2020 10:52am Mar 12, 2020 10:52am
Quick reminder :

Quoting Replicant
... For the retrace, supports to track to take profit/ or to position for the impulsive swing to 1.16xx : 1.122x (H1 reversal down trigger/last D1 break up) ==> 1.109x (H4 reversal down trigger/major D1 break up) ==> 1.101x (MT Bottom)/1.099x (previous ST Bottom) ==> 1.095x (MT rejection) ==> 1.092x (ST reversal) ==> 1.083x (ST Bottom) ==================================================...
=> not expecting more than 1.101x here as next week's FED is coming quicky with huge expectations
On top, Germany yesterday hint they were giving up schwarze null rule (hinting fiscal stimulus is coming which is Euro positive)

ST Map in EURUSD :

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  • #72
  • Mar 12, 2020 11:36am Mar 12, 2020 11:36am
lol Papa 1.109x set to hold in EURUSD for European close ....
=> All shorts cleared here now

US Equities keep trading extrem bottom (~ ES around 252x)
=> FED is going to go all in next week (if not before !!) ==> Bought longs EURUSD @ 1.109x here ...
  • #73
  • Mar 13, 2020 12:04pm Mar 13, 2020 12:04pm
Quoting Replicant
lol Papa 1.109x set to hold in EURUSD for European close .... => All shorts cleared here now US Equities keep trading extrem bottom (~ ES around 252x) => FED is going to go all in next week (if not before !!) ==> Bought longs EURUSD @ 1.109x here ...
London failed to hold 1.109x, hinting further retrace

MT/W1 levels below:
1.101x MT Bottom
1.095x rejection from the lows

ST/D1 levels below:
1.099x previous ST Bottom
1.092x last reversal up
1.083x rejection from the lows and ST Bottom
  • #74
  • Apr 27, 2020 9:02am Apr 27, 2020 9:02am
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  • #75
  • Apr 27, 2020 9:09am Apr 27, 2020 9:09am
tocilizumab probably going to make some headlines WW

===================================================================================================

BREAKING

AP-HP's CORIMUNO-19 clinical trial releasing results on tocilizumab

https://www.aphp.fr/contenu/le-tocil...neumonie-covid
  • #76
  • Apr 27, 2020 10:02am Apr 27, 2020 10:02am
https://mobile.twitter.com/APHP/stat...22336806354944
  • #77
  • Apr 27, 2020 10:18am Apr 27, 2020 10:18am
If Cochin Hospital, THE REFERENCE WW for auto-immune diseases (and the problem is indeed, at the end, the immune system which is over reacting and killing - the cykotine storm - not the virus) says it, it means it's very promising......
  • #78
  • Apr 27, 2020 6:38pm Apr 27, 2020 6:38pm
Quoting Replicant
tocilizumab probably going to make some headlines WW =================================================================================================== BREAKING AP-HP's CORIMUNO-19 clinical trial releasing results on tocilizumab https://www.aphp.fr/contenu/le-tocil...neumonie-covid
Great info, thank you for sharing that.
  • #79
  • May 1, 2020 5:54pm May 1, 2020 5:54pm
Quoting Replicant
tocilizumab probably going to make some headlines WW =================================================================================================== BREAKING AP-HP's CORIMUNO-19 clinical trial releasing results on tocilizumab https://www.aphp.fr/contenu/le-tocil...neumonie-covid
=>ongoing WW peer review on AP-HP's tocilizumab clinical trial is expected to deliver by next week

=>go-ahead (hopefully) by international community & detailed results/article of the randomized trial to follow

Owner of tocilizumab (commercial name Actemra) is Roche Holding AG

=> 1 shot ~= €800

we need the publication of the study, but some leaks said most of patients had received one shot only, very few had two

SWX:RO

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Quoting Replicant
... the problem is indeed, at the end, the immune system which is over reacting and killing - the cykotine storm - not the virus ...
From what I know, there are only 2 medicines in the world that can inhibit Interleukine 6 (IL6) receptor (and, hence, prevent that cykotine storm) :

- tocilizumab (Roche's Actemra)
- sarilumab (Sanofi's Kevzara)

Sanofi and Roche had pretty much the same chart lately except Roche breached (but could not held) ATH.
  • #80
  • Edited 8:40pm May 1, 2020 8:18pm | Edited 8:40pm
HOW TO TRADE THE END OF PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA ?
Post #1 - One lie too many

All credits to Elisabeth Bik
https://scienceintegritydigest.com/2...wuhan-whistle/

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"On December 16, last year, we received a patient at the Nanjing Road emergency department. They had an inexplicably high fever, and they weren’t responding to standard medications, their body temperature wasn’t going down at all. On the 22nd, the patient was transferred to the respiratory department, a bronchoscopy was done, and bronchoalveolar fluid taken and sent out for high-throughput genetic sequencing. Afterwards, the coronavirus result was relayed verbally. At that time, the colleague who was responsible for the patient told me clearly: “Director [主任] Ai, that person’s diagnosis is coronavirus”. Later we learned that the patient worked in the Huanan Seafood Market.

Immediately afterwards, December 27th, another patient arrived at Nanjing Road. He was the nephew of a doctor in our department. He was in his 40s, without any preexisting conditions. His lungs were in a terrible state, and his blood oxygen saturation was only 90%. He was under hospital care for almost 10 days without any improvement, and was admitted to the respiratory department. A flexible bronchoscopy was also done, and the alveolar lavage fluid sent for testing.

At noon on December 30th, an old classmate at Tongji (同济) Hospital sent me a screenshot of a WeChat conversation, which said: “You don’t want to go to Huanan [Market] just now, there are lots of people with high fever…” He asked if it was true. At the time, I was watching a CT [scan] of a typical patient with pulmonary infection on the computer. I sent him a 11-second video of the CT and told him it was a patient who had come to our emergency department in the morning, a Huanan Seafood Market case.

Just after 4 pm that day, a colleague showed me a diagnostic report that said: “SARS coronavirus, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, 46 strains of bacteria [菌, bacteria and/or fungi] which colonize the oral cavity and/or respiratory tract”. I read the report very carefully many times, and the supplementary information read: “SARS coronavirus is a single-stranded positive-strand RNA virus. The main mode of transmission of the virus is close-range droplet transmission or contact with respiratory secretions of patients, which can cause an unusual pneumonia that is highly contagious and can affect multiple organ systems, also known as atypical pneumonia.”

At the time, the diagnostic report scared me, I broke into a cold sweat, this was a terrifying thing. The patient was admitted to the respiratory department, the situation needed to be reported to the respiratory department, but to ensure attention, I immediately phoned and reported it to the hospital’s public health division and infectious disease [?院感] division. At that moment, the director of the respiratory department of our hospital happened to be passing my office door, someone who had been involved with SARS. I grabbed the director and said, “We found this in one of the patients in your department.” The director took one look and said it was worrying. I knew the matter was worrying.

After calling the hospital, I also circulated this report to my fellow-learners (同学[; student or former classmate]). I purposely drew a red circle around the words “SARS coronavirus, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, 46 strains of bacteria [菌, bacteria and/or fungi] which colonize the oral cavity and/or respiratory tract” to bring the warning to their attention. I also sent the report to the doctors in the department to warn everyone to take precautions.

That evening, the message was spread widely; the screenshots of the transmission show the photos of the report I’d marked with a red circle, including the ones that I later learned that Li Wenliang passed on to the [chat] group. At the time, I was thinking it might be bad. At 10:20, the hospital passed on a message [reportedly on the Central Hospital WeChat group]. It was a relayed notification from the city Health Protection Committee (市卫健委). Their main point was that information on the pneumonia of unknown cause should not be arbitrarily released, to avoid causing panic among the public; if panic was caused by information leakage, there would be a thorough investigation (要追责).

I was very scared at the time and immediately passed this information on to my fellow-learners. About an hour later, the hospital sent another notice, again stressing that information the group had on this subject could not be leaked. One day later, at 11:46 pm on January 1st, the head of the hospital’s disciplinary inspection committee sent me a message to come [for an employee review] the next morning."


[INTERLUDE]
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"I didn’t fall asleep that night, I was worried and thought things through over and over again, but I felt that there are always two sides to everything; even if it had caused adverse effects, it was not necessarily a bad thing to remind medical staff in Wuhan to take precautions. At 8 o’clock the next morning, before I finished the shift, I was called in for the disciplinary review. In that disciplinary review, I suffered an unprecedented and very severe reprimand.

At that time, the leader of the discussion said, “We can’t afford to raise our heads when we go out for a meeting.The director of XX criticizes our hospital. As the director of the emergency department of Wuhan Central Hospital, you are a professional, how can there be this lack of principle, this lack of organizational discipline, this creating and spreading of false rumours (谣)?” This is the original sentence. So I should go back to the 200-odd people in the department to convey the news to them verbally, one by one; we can’t send information by WeChat or SMS, we can only talk face-to-face or call, we can’t say anything about this pneumonia, “you can’t even tell your own husband”, they said…"

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Dr. Ai Fen 艾芬 is the director of the ER of Wuhan Central Hospital, in Wuhan, China. She was the first to suspect the severity of the initial COVID-19 cases. She passed this information on to several MDs in her hospital. This information then got passed on to Dr. Li Wenliang.
Dr. Li then blew the whistle that Dr. Ai Fen provided, so to speak. But the police told Dr. Li to not cause a stir and return to work. Dr. Li unfortunately died in February 2020 of COVID-19 himself at the age of 33. So, while Dr. Li can be regarded the original whistleblower, it is Dr. Ai Fen who provided that whistle.

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[EPILOGUE]

On Jan 21st/22nd, 3 weeks after these internal reports, PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA and WHO finally aknowledged human to human transmission.

Regarding WHO, the few credibility they had (Communist Ethiopia, as a vassal state of China, has been literally sleeping with Beijing for ages) has completely vanished with their denial, lately, of Taiwan's alert email sent in late december.

We know all the remaining, especially probably the biggest lie, the number of deaths revealed by Caixin's investigation and the locals on weibo, which made the rest of the world think that was just an exotic flu, before being caught with pants down when discovering the reality

=> Once the health crisis passes, a complete reshuffle of international trade will be on the table. That's guaranteed. Western leaders already hint it (and not only the clown). And PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA will lose so much that they might collapse.
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