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stocks: my original way to lose money

  • #21
  • Apr 24, 2020 8:26am Apr 24, 2020 8:26am
Quoting Liviu
Hi Hayseed, what criteria/tools did you use to screen for those stocks? they seem to be in a narrow horizontal channel/range bound for the past 1 month Thank you
//------

yes, they have been range bound since last month..... +/- 2$ ..... that will change.....

another thing i sort for is dividends and 52 week % price change..... during the 08 crisis, i bought ford so low that years later the dividend alone was doubling my original investment every year.....

i stay away from adr's....... ngl and ceqp are both on my buy list today because of dividend rate..... just a few shares of each to start with.... will add on weakness..... that dividend might be dropped for awhile..... that would be a opportunity for me...... invariably the sky-is-falling crowd will sell before thinking it thru..... i will buy.....

buying something, even if it's 1 share, will keep it on my mind because i see it constantly in the portfolio.....h
//-----
Attached Images
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #22
  • Apr 24, 2020 10:15am Apr 24, 2020 10:15am
this week really has not good one to be buying..... most everything has jumped up 10/20%..... expect to erase some of those gains before the summer.....

below are some of current my open buys..... you can see i'm not trying to bet the farm..... a order for 5 shares, that's just a reminder for me to look closer at it in spare time.....

and again, this is just forex money..... forex for me is wishy washy at best..... some weeks good..... some weeks bad..... this has not been a good forex week for me, so my buying power is limited.....
//------

speakin of bad weeks...... little piggies been showing off and sleeping in front of the traps and cameras...... fixin to give them webster's definition of bad week.....h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #23
  • Apr 24, 2020 3:45pm Apr 24, 2020 3:45pm
Hayseed,
i appreciate your insight and input & hope things will hear fruit for you at some point in the future!
Once A Trader Always A Trader.
  • #24
  • Apr 24, 2020 5:04pm Apr 24, 2020 5:04pm
Quoting Liviu
the future!
//------

the future tends to be bright...... provided you have a good plan and flashlight so see it.....

macrotrends is another free scanner to put things in the limelight... searching for market cap, price, pe, % price change and dividend yield gives me more ideas than i have money.....

midstream and pipeline guys kinda caught in the middle...... that will change......

it won't take long for things to improve..... if fed keeps rates low as they have said, those dividend payers will be in high demand.....h
//----
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #25
  • Apr 25, 2020 9:46pm Apr 25, 2020 9:46pm
Macrotrends really looks cool. Thank you again, Hayseed!
i got this chart and zoomed through for quite some time and wondering if stock market could be viewed after 1970s as similar to "paper money"

https://www.macrotrends.net/2608/gol...100-year-chart

the interplay btw long term returns in gold and stock market looks really interesting, one can see the great run before 1929 crash as small "blip" then "flat" returns till late 1940s, stocks took off, early 1970 Nixon decouples dollar and gold takes off with long-term returns in early 1980 well above stocks, then stocks took off...
interesting that stocks "blip" above gold in 1920 "from till 1995" chart looks similar to gold "blip" above stocks in 1980 chart.
guess another cross between gold and stocks may be in the making... who knows, likely we won't be here 50years from now see how the "blip" of 2020-30s' looks...if any forms (the 2008-2010 was a close call, but the cross did not happen).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Once A Trader Always A Trader.
  • #26
  • Apr 26, 2020 12:32am Apr 26, 2020 12:32am
Quoting Liviu
i got this chart and zoomed through for quite some time and wondering if stock market could be viewed after 1970s as similar to "paper money" the interplay btw long term returns in gold and stock market looks really interesting, one can see the great run before 1929 crash as small "blip" then "flat" returns till late 1940s, stocks took off, early 1970 Nixon decouples dollar and gold takes off with long-term returns in early 1980 well above stocks, then stocks took off...
//-----

hey liviu..... first hard money.... second paper money..... not sure what it is now..... maybe electronic..... we never carry any money at all.... none...... probably not 3$ in this whole house..... evaporated money.....

nixon had to break the gold standard, otherwise foreign countries would have broken us..... he had no choice.....

the 70's and 80's gold take off, and to a lessor extent silver, might of been with pent up demand.... around that time people that didn't have money for this months rent and light bill, where walkin around with a couple pounds of gold chains on.....

the hunt brothers propelled silver to the sky, which created a likewise craze in gold.....

safehaven used to be a relatively good site as long as you don't take them too serious..... haven't looked at it in 10 years...... used to read adam hamiltons, zeal's essays long ago.... and print them all..... also printed alan newman's at crosscurrents..... didn't necessarily agree with what they wrote, but enjoyed reading it....

the doom and gloom club has done more for gold and silver than anything else.... when the doomsayers , speculators and the seo's team up, almost anything is possible......

there's a phase for that..... something about appealing to the lowest common denominator.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #27
  • Apr 26, 2020 1:13am Apr 26, 2020 1:13am
just some reminders for me..... page 1 thru 5, sorted by dividend payout ratio.....

7 is by dividend rate...... the 7 in order size reminds me it's a dividend play.... 7, 17, 57, 107, 507 and so on..... always a last digit of 7.....

stored here at twee's expense....h
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Attached File(s)
File Type: zip dividend payout.zip   2.7 MB | 303 downloads
File Type: zip page 1.zip   453 KB | 233 downloads
File Type: zip page 2.zip   462 KB | 238 downloads
File Type: zip page 3.zip   463 KB | 207 downloads
File Type: zip page 4.zip   457 KB | 231 downloads
File Type: zip page 5.zip   452 KB | 236 downloads
File Type: zip 7 buy.zip   466 KB | 275 downloads
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #28
  • Apr 28, 2020 8:51am Apr 28, 2020 8:51am
Quoting hayseed
this week really has not good one to be buying..... most everything has jumped up 10/20%.....
//-----

new week...... and yesterday was a good day for buying....

oil opened low again..... oil sector gaped down...... with the sky is falling crowd selling everything, dozens of my low bids were filled.... dozens more were not..... that's ok.....

within 4 hours the mood turned, i have no clue why..... by the end of the day prices had moved way above anything that appealed to me.....

with todays gap ups, odds are only a few orders will fill......

that's a good thing...... gives time for scratching thru the mess..... and the oil patch is in one heck of a mess right now......

it will improve....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #29
  • Edited 11:37am Apr 28, 2020 11:13am | Edited 11:37am
zip file just some more reminders for me...... stocks sorted by dividend yield and pe....

dividends alone can be misleading..... especially in times like these..... they do hint at the possible fact the company was making money recently....

when coupled with p/e, d/e, cf/s, and such they mean slightly more.....

at&t is proud of their long running dividend record..... oil stocks feel differently..... they pay when they can..... don't when they can't ...... and make no excuses..... that might be the best approach......

the dividend yield on many is only high because the stock price is low..... it's a ratio..... when the stocks move higher, the reported yield will fall....

this account won't double because of a 50% dividend yield......

this account won't double because the oil industry is too big to fail.....

this account will double because the oil industry is too vital to fail......h
//-----
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip 4 27 2020.zip   872 KB | 365 downloads
File Type: zip 4 27 2020 debt ratios.zip   567 KB | 248 downloads
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #30
  • Apr 29, 2020 9:49am Apr 29, 2020 9:49am
again.... another rough day to be a buyer..... except very selectively......

of course those with money to burn and with a multi year vision today would be excellent..... 6 months from now, looking back might regret not buying more..... human nature....

for me, it's best to lay low and dig a little deeper into the energy/oil sector.... have probably 2 dozen gtc buy orders in.... 3 orders have executed so far.... unlikely many will fill today....

mentioned before about avoiding the frackers and their support companies.... bought sand this morning..... more buys in for much less in 100 sizes.... you can see i only bought a seemingly laughable 5 shares.....

the last digit is important....

a last digit of 5 reminds that it's a stock that needs to be looked at harder...

last digit of 7 reminds me it's a dividend play..... and so on....

below i have sorted the account by dividend yields... almost every stock ends in 7...

dividends are only a factor, not a buyer guarantee.... d/e, p/e, p/b, p/s and more should be considered...
//-----

days like today bring to mind the book great expectations...... when the profit is high it's common to jump for joy..... don't forget gravity....

still looking.... still buying..... still realistic.....h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #31
  • Apr 29, 2020 11:17am Apr 29, 2020 11:17am
moving my focus today from the mesozoic age to the paleozoic age.....

buying every coal miner except felp..... there's 11...... miners not minors......h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #32
  • Apr 29, 2020 10:17pm Apr 29, 2020 10:17pm
Quoting hayseed
again.... another rough day to be a buyer..... except very selectively......
//----

there was a couple gomers that used to write articles for oanda and submit them here..... still remember couple of their doom and gloom click bait headlines...... "the dollar is dead" and "the yen is collapsing into a coffin"..... morons...... never hear from them any more..... wonder why.....
//------


account ended up a little over 2700 today..... realistically probably give much of that back tomorrow....

now might be a good time to ease up on some of my harsh restrictions..... had been focusing on very low debt to equity stocks..... d/e well below 0.5 ..... was also targeting those with high margins.... margins well above 60..... with a p/e below 10...... that's normally too restrictive.....

a good debt to equity ratio in the oil industry might be between 1 and 1.5 .... margins might be well below 50 ..... p/e rarely below 10.....

so beginning next week i'll wander across the tracks to the low rent side of town...... will raise my debt threshold to 1.5 max, lower margins to 20 minimum and raise pe less than 20....

that should open a lot of new doors..... just hope i don't get robbed.....h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #33
  • Apr 30, 2020 8:55am Apr 30, 2020 8:55am
just to show there is no hard feelings, i bought back into my biggest loss of all times..... at market no less.....

rig...... lost over $30,000.00 in a single day...... but it's worse than it seems.....

rig had been trading around 25$ a share when i started buying..... and i bought..... figured it would be an easy double within 12 months..... and i bought...... drew trend lines in every color proving it was heading eventually to 80...... and i bought..... it was deeply oversold on every time frame...... and i bought..... and it fell...... and i bought...... and it fell......
//------

and i sold..... -30k loss in a single day..... the next week rig took off and doubled within a year...... and it doubled again.... and again..... and again....

and my lesson learned was.....

don't let your mouth overload your hardware cowboy......h
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Attached Images
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #34
  • Apr 30, 2020 10:06am Apr 30, 2020 10:06am
sold alcoa.... took the 20%..... at best it might be 50% higher in the next few months...... but the capital required assures it will be inefficient.........

moved money to more oil issues..... some of those have the potential of average 50% per month for the next 6 months.....

continuing to move forex earnings to riskier oil issues next week providing the aud and nzd cooperate.....

and they have not been.....h
Attached Image
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #35
  • Apr 30, 2020 9:05pm Apr 30, 2020 9:05pm
always get the same question anytime someone steps inside my office.....

why so many computers..... why, because i need'em......

always get the same question anytime someone steps in the back yard......

why so many tractors....... why, because i need'em......
//------

only a hayseed would turn over a brand new tractor...... what a dumb gomer......h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #36
  • May 1, 2020 9:50am May 1, 2020 9:50am
from the fwiw dept..... if you use oanda, this might help in the future.....

will write this off as my mistake and lesson learned.....

money going in to oil stocks here is just forex earnings on aud and nzd..... as it turns out, actually what i was doing was in effect just withdrawing my original deposit, not the actual earnings..... but in my mind, a $ is a $...... found out this week a $'s can be different.....

when i went to pull out more money it was declined saying i had to first withdraw on some other cards used in the past..... way in the past.....

those cards had been caught up in data breaches at various sores over the past 12 years..... they have long since been replaced with a new debit card number but the bank account itself has not changed.....

doesn't matter..... the money is supposed to be returned to that long since gone data breach card of the past.....

once all deposited money has been returned to those cards, which can't be done, you can then withdraw the profit by bank wire....

after 5 calls and probably 12 emails, oanda cut some red tape and got it squared away......
//-----

to avoid this issue in the future, if i ever receive a new debit card with a different number i will withdraw all deposited funds to the old card before activating the new one..... i can later activate the new card and redeposit those funds under the new card number if need be......

then contact oanda and let them know the old card is no longer valid.... they might require a photo of the new cards paperwork or you can submit a form provided by oanda certifying the card/cards are no longer valid.....

bottom line, lesson learned and big thanks to oanda for the way they solved my problem......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #37
  • May 1, 2020 2:24pm May 1, 2020 2:24pm
dang audusd and nzdusd still draggin me threw the brush..... fixin to to do some revenge trading.....

trading both of those pairs for pork belly futures.....

round here when you order a bucket flat full of baby back ribs and pork chops with curbside pickup, that's exactly what you get......h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #38
  • May 1, 2020 2:33pm May 1, 2020 2:33pm
Quoting hayseed
dang audusd and nzdusd still draggin me threw the brush..... fixin to to do some revenge trading..... trading both of those pairs for pork belly futures..... round here when you order a bucket flat full of baby back ribs and pork chops with curbside pickup, that's exactly what you get......h //----- {image} {image} {image}
Look like a nice Bbq
R:R "Percentage Focus"
  • #39
  • May 1, 2020 5:02pm May 1, 2020 5:02pm
Quoting PrinceJ58
Look like a nice Bbq
//----

bbq, hot dogs, hamburgers, sausage pattys, hot links and more.... all my freezers are so full it's hard to close the door..... but know some that are not....
//-----

today was a good day for buying..... too many to mention..... list below..... little here.... little there....

may should be a good month but likely will have it's ups and down...... stocks will high institutional ownership might do best.....

i'll be buying every day for next several months.... light on up days and heavy on down ones.....

just to be clear, my definition of heavy is 500$..... h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #40
  • May 1, 2020 7:43pm May 1, 2020 7:43pm
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //---- bbq, hot dogs, hamburgers, sausage pattys, hot links and more.... all my freezers are so full it's hard to close the door..... but know some that are not.... //----- today was a good day for buying..... too many to mention..... list below..... little here.... little there.... may should be a good month but likely will have it's ups and down...... stocks will high institutional ownership might do best..... i'll be buying every day for next several months.... light on up days and heavy on down ones..... just to be clear, my definition...
You not playing at all...make it rain in every market...
R:R "Percentage Focus"
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