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Pivot Trading

  • #36,741
  • Apr 25, 2020 7:57am Apr 25, 2020 7:57am
Lots of Key USD data next week.(all projected to be RED) I am anticipating majors gaining against USD
Already long on EU but may take NU long as well
As always market leads we follow.I can be wrong anytime!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #36,742
  • Apr 25, 2020 8:21am Apr 25, 2020 8:21am
Quoting Davit
Lots of Key USD data next week.(all projected to be RED) I am anticipating majors gaining against USD Already long on EU but may take NU long as well As always market leads we follow.I can be wrong anytime!
With this virus thing may I say that interest rates is not the big elephant in the room any more, but rather the stimulus packages? Interest rates needs to stay low for a while? As it stands most countries not willing to go negative rates?
We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #36,743
  • Edited 8:53am Apr 25, 2020 8:42am | Edited 8:53am
Quoting Egbert
{quote} With this virus thing may I say that interest rates is not the big elephant in the room any more, but rather the stimulus packages? Interest rates needs to stay low for a while? As it stands most countries not willing to go negative rates?
agree now markets are moved by stimuli and virus reduction rates.

I am becoming disillusioned on idea of lock-down. Its basically slowing delaying the inevitable that eventually almost all people will get this virus its matter of time.In fact millions probably already had it and recovered and not know it they had.
So you ease schools some kids get sick then shut down again, work same, stores the same.Fact is most people will tolerate it like the common flu
Its becoming obvious lock downs are maybe wrong policy
Sweden did not lock down to my knowledge and they are doing fine.Rates of mortality is same.

What we are doing is crippling governments with massive debts that may never recover from and slide into protracted rescission for decades.
Covid 19 mainly deadly on old and preexisting conditions but we are essentially punishing vast majority for minority risk.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #36,744
  • Apr 25, 2020 8:53am Apr 25, 2020 8:53am
Quoting Davit
{quote} agree now markets are moved by stimuli and virus reduction rates. I am becoming disillusioned on idea of lock-down. Its basically slowing delaying the inevitable that eventually almost all people will get this virus its matter of time.In fact millions probably already had it and recovered and not know it they had. So you ease schools some kids gets sick then shut down again work same stores the same.Fact is most people will tolerate it like the flue Its becoming obvious lock downs are maybe wrong policy Sweden did not lock down to my knowledge...
Here in South Africa we only had lock down to give government time to rig up and get ready for this virus, as our hospitals did not prepare quickly to deal with this on a massif scale. We start to ease lock down end next week.
We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #36,745
  • Apr 25, 2020 8:58am Apr 25, 2020 8:58am
Interesting interview from a doctor
Inserted Video
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #36,746
  • Apr 25, 2020 11:38am Apr 25, 2020 11:38am
Quoting Davit
{quote} agree now markets are moved by stimuli and virus reduction rates. I am becoming disillusioned on idea of lock-down. Its basically slowing delaying the inevitable that eventually almost all people will get this virus its matter of time.In fact millions probably already had it and recovered and not know it they had. So you ease schools some kids get sick then shut down again, work same, stores the same.Fact is most people will tolerate it like the common flu Its becoming obvious lock downs are maybe wrong policy Sweden did not lock down to...
Recent testing over in California has some interesting results:

“Doctors Dan Erickson and Artin Massihi said their facilities have tested over 5,200 patients for the coronavirus throughout the county, making up for over half of all testing in Kern. According to their data, the death rate of the coronavirus is similar in prevalence to the flu. “

https://www.turnto23.com/news/corona...in-place-order
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #36,747
  • Apr 25, 2020 9:50pm Apr 25, 2020 9:50pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} did you make $$ or got out with loss? Its a weird pair anyway...I never trade it.After Swiss bank's titanic move (bankrupted hundreds of brokers as well as thousands of traders) I never looked at it ever since. looking at it again you made a typical mistake of getting in at the bottom of the move.This is why I posted my 1st page Location.Does not matter to me previous H4 candles and I know that's being sold at TMS threads but missing part is location.That's the weakness of TMS it assumes whatever H4 candle is next will be the same...One...
I hate Swiss [airs fullstop always havw always will lol, fatal trading mistake win or lose entering because your delayed and feel you need to enter , stick to the strategy or dont use the strategy

any way ive read bits and bobs on thread over the past year or so but not all, on my way to reading through the lot on a covid lockdown quest

nice thread, skipping a féw thousand posts lol but why did you dive up on tdi?

mind the speelling as im typing in the dark as ive had an argument with the missus
  • #36,748
  • Apr 25, 2020 11:22pm Apr 25, 2020 11:22pm
I want to know more about pivot trading
  • #36,749
  • Edited 5:46am Apr 26, 2020 4:16am | Edited 5:46am
New potential short trade coming up on AUDCAD. Price approaching WR78 with ADR86.3

Fundamentals:

AUD

-labor data wasn't that bad as expected.
-Rates are still positive.

CAD

-Oil at pretty much all time low.
-Retail sales are down but not as much as expected.

I have a weak bullish outlook on the pair AUDCAD fundamentally.

A correction from WR78 is not overly optimistic in my opinion.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 47 KB
  • #36,750
  • Apr 26, 2020 5:18am Apr 26, 2020 5:18am
Quoting Davit
Interesting interview from a doctor https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY
Quoting Cryptosurf
{quote} Recent testing over in California has some interesting results: “Doctors Dan Erickson and Artin Massihi said their facilities have tested over 5,200 patients for the coronavirus throughout the county, making up for over half of all testing in Kern. According to their data, the death rate of the coronavirus is similar in prevalence to the flu. “ https://www.turnto23.com/news/corona...in-place-order
Since we are talking about the coronavirus here is an excerpt from an article by the Crypto Brigade Team:

"On October 18th, Bill Gates along with the World Economic Forum ran a high-level Pandemic simulation at John Hopkins University in Baltimore...
They wanted to see how prepared we are as a country to handle an outbreak based on our current capabilities...
They simulated, get this… a coronavirus. They called it: “Event 201”...

The result?
Despite their best efforts, they couldn’t prevent the hypothetical coronavirus from killing 65 million people.
This was less than 60 days before the first case of Covid-19 was reported in China...

Coincidence?"

Coincidence or not the coronavirus is now with us and we can only hope that medical advances will stop it from killing too many people.
  • #36,751
  • Apr 26, 2020 10:39am Apr 26, 2020 10:39am
  •  Ekim7
  • | Joined Nov 2019 | Status: Having the time of my life | 70 Posts
Hello all, I'll try to be more active during the week but I've been really busy with getting all my school/work stuff in order. Attached is a nicer word file. Planing is for my own benefit, don't cut corners and expected results.

Week of April 26- May 1st

Mon Apr 27
Tent- JPY- BOJ outlook report and Monetary Policy statement- I feel like policy reports aren’t churning much liquidity at the moment, but set ups may always appear. Press conference next day as well as bank holiday. Talks about potential stimulus packages may move markets.

Tue Apr 28
3:00- EUR- Spanish Unemployment- could be a lot higher due to Spain being one of the affected the most by covid
10:00- USD- CB consumer confidence- expected to decrease 29.9 to 90.1- rate statement later in the week might need to wait for opportunities.
21:30- AUD- CPI q/q expects to drop 0.5% to 0.2%, and Trimmed mean CPI q/q – drop 0.1% to 0.3%- I believe we will finally see AUD get a significant drop unless numbers are manipulated to make the situation seem better than it is again. AUD has become the new safe haven in the last few weeks, especially with china needing to rely on them for resources.

Wed Apr 29
8:30- USD- Advanced GDP q/q & Advanced GDP price index q/q- expected to decrease 6.0% to -3.9% & decrease 0.3% to 1.0% respectively
10:00- USD- Pending Home Sales m/m- expected to decrease 13.4% to -11.0%- minimal impacts as its decline home sales are a trend everywhere.
10:30- USD- Crude Oil inventories- last month 15.0M, there should be greater demand as trump talked a lot about storing oil at these prices. Could see WTI improvements. Love shorting UC
14:00- USD- FOMC STATEMENT- expected to stay the same at <0.25%, but let’s talk about negative rates to get liquidity flowing. 14:30 press conference.
21:00- CNY- Manufacturing PMI- expected to decrease 1.0 to 51.0 but lower numbers may drive AUD down even more. Non-manufacturing PMI- expected to increase 0.5 to 52.8
21:00- NZD- ANZ Business Confidence- Last month -73.1

Thur Apr 30th
All in anticipation for the big boy at 7:45
1:30- EUR- French Flash GDP q/q expected to decrease 3.9% to -4.0%
3:00- Spanish Flash GDP q/q- expected to decrease 4.6% to -4.4%
5:00- Prelim Flash GDP q/q- expected to decrease 3.6% to -3.7%
7:45- EUR-MAINREFINANCING RATE, MONETRARY POLICY STATEMENT, Press conference at 8:30
8:30- CAD- GDP m/m- expected to decrease 0.1% to 0.0%
8:30- USD- Unemployment claims- expected to decrease to 3500K from 4427K, Personal spending expected to decrease 4.4% to -4.2%
9:45- USD- Chicago PMI- expected dot decrease 9.8 to 38.0

Fri May 1
10:00- USD- ISM Manufacturing PMI- expected to decrease 12.4 to 36.7
Remember not to trade rate statements, but look for opportunities before they are announced or better yet wait and react to prices and opportunities the market gives to you. Should see lots of m movement in USD, and EUR pairs with AUD hopefully will have a price correction. Might look at UC, EC and JPY (early) , but we’ll see what happens as the week progresses. Anything can happen!
Attached File(s)
File Type: docx Week of April 26-may1.docx   19 KB | 248 downloads
You should really listen to what Davit says
  • #36,752
  • Apr 26, 2020 10:41am Apr 26, 2020 10:41am
  •  Ekim7
  • | Joined Nov 2019 | Status: Having the time of my life | 70 Posts
New week, New month, New Opportunities!

Now's let's wait for that bell to open markets!!
Inserted Video
You should really listen to what Davit says
  • #36,753
  • Apr 26, 2020 11:52am Apr 26, 2020 11:52am
I do believe that once they get a consistent test for antibodies, they will see that many people actually did have the virus and did not know it.

But regarding lockdowns, I think it depends on what region you are talking about. For instance in the States I think the lockdown was necessary in the NY\NJ area, while states such as Wyoming, Colorado or others the lockdown might not have been completely needed. Even with the lockdown the hospitals in New York and the surrounding area have been overwhelmed - I can't imagine what these hospitals would be like without a lockdown.
Recently a plane full of medical personnel from Colorado flew into the New York area to help the hospitals there. This one action kind of sums up what is going on at least in the States. In Colorado (as well as other states) the hospitals are forced to furlough their workers because there is a freeze on elective surgeries, and it seems they simply don't have a lot of Coronavirus cases to deal with (also people that have emergency medical needs are delaying going to the hospital for fear of catching the virus). While in states like New York especially in the city or close to it - the hospitals and medical workers are overwhelmed.
  • #36,754
  • Apr 26, 2020 1:05pm Apr 26, 2020 1:05pm
Hello Guys,
Hope you're all well.

I want to ask what tf you are usually trading using the pivots? Is it advisable to trade higher time frames (4h, daily)? or just focus on 30 min , 1h tfs?

Many thanks
  • #36,755
  • Apr 26, 2020 2:34pm Apr 26, 2020 2:34pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} {quote} Since we are talking about the coronavirus here is an excerpt from an article by the Crypto Brigade Team: "On October 18th, Bill Gates along with the World Economic Forum ran a high-level Pandemic simulation at John Hopkins University in Baltimore... They wanted to see how prepared we are as a country to handle an outbreak based on our current capabilities... They simulated, get this… a coronavirus. They called it: “Event 201”... The result? Despite their best efforts, they couldn’t prevent the hypothetical coronavirus from killing...
Here in Puerto Vallarta we had, late last year, a simulation in downtown area...not for a tsunami since we are a beach town...but for a pandemic situation. This coupled with the sudden burst of pharmacies opening in the area, at least 10 in a mile radius...sure seems suspicious.

Edit: forgot to mention, also the Municipal President purchasing 500 double space lots in a land for future COVID deaths...

For now will just keep trading and focused on what is on hand. Nothing I can do about these things so no need getting worked up about it. We are however; preparing for the worse and hoping for the best.
Invest in Life
  • #36,756
  • Apr 26, 2020 4:15pm Apr 26, 2020 4:15pm
Quoting bottomcatche
I want to know more about pivot trading
You are in the right place. Start with page 1. Davit has the rules pretty clearly spelled out. Read, study, learn. Like Davit says, it appears simple but is advanced trading.
  • #36,757
  • Apr 26, 2020 4:28pm Apr 26, 2020 4:28pm
restriction back on.I have no time for idiots spoon feeders people who can't read instructions who think other people's time is less important
This is advance trading!Clearly states on 1st page!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #36,758
  • Apr 26, 2020 4:52pm Apr 26, 2020 4:52pm
AC is poised to drop significantly specially after Tues CPI data
AUD love is about to collapse.No fundamental reasons why it appreciated as much as it has.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #36,759
  • Apr 26, 2020 6:15pm Apr 26, 2020 6:15pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCADH4.png Size: 28 KB


Just shorted close to R61.

This was resistance 3 times going back to March and January. It is not CAD weakness, it is unjustified AUD strength, as Davit commented.
  • #36,760
  • Apr 26, 2020 6:38pm Apr 26, 2020 6:38pm
Quoting pipmaster77
{image} Just shorted close to R61. This was resistance 3 times going back to March and January. It is not CAD weakness, it is unjustified AUD strength, as Davit commented.
Watching...I'll wait to enter though... If I enter now this could very well keep me waiting or have me on unnecessary DD. Remember PPE...no event at this moment. If I am proven wrong by the market at least I stuck to system rules. Can never go wrong doing so.
Invest in Life
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