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High Level Accuracy Method With Little To NO Draw-down

  • #3,921
  • Apr 22, 2020 12:41pm Apr 22, 2020 12:41pm
Quoting Obiech
{quote} Please I'm new to forex.....can you explain the 3 bar set up I can't understand it well please sir



Please what's the win rate of this strategy.
I'm new on this thread
  • #3,922
  • May 27, 2020 11:55am May 27, 2020 11:55am
Quoting tictac-nur
{quote} SELL Order Trigger..
Hello. Would you modify the recovery zone? I will pay for it.
  • #3,923
  • May 29, 2020 4:16am May 29, 2020 4:16am
Quoting Obiech
{quote} Please what's the win rate of this strategy. I'm new on this thread
below zero
I like what I trade, I trade what I like
  • #3,924
  • May 29, 2020 5:11am May 29, 2020 5:11am
Quoting togr
{quote} below zero
75%
  • #3,925
  • Jun 23, 2020 8:18pm Jun 23, 2020 8:18pm
Quoting Obiech
{quote} Please what's the win rate of this strategy. I'm new on this thread
The win rate really depends on you the trader....and just how long you can tolerate holding for a trade to mature....what I mean is if you are happy with 20-30 pips using a 1 hour chart, your win rate could be as high as 75% or greater. If you can tolerate waiting for the ideal exit at predetermined levels based on breakout or previous swing levels, with stops positioned at least 10 pips above last entry level, should be at least 65% or higher...because time equals risk, the longer the trade the longer price can spike due to any number of influences and hit your stops. But one thing is sure...the pattern is an indication the market is changing, market makers are leaving and letting the market move where it may.

What I have a hard time understanding is the lack of enthusiasm for traders to embrace this method. It is so superior and so simple to trade, but I assume the discipline needed is the killer for most traders who want instant gratification.

I have several methods that work really good on shorter time frames, but when I see this on the hourly I really pay attention....
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  • #3,926
  • Jun 24, 2020 12:45am Jun 24, 2020 12:45am
Quoting Swede
{quote} The win rate really depends on you the trader....and just how long you can tolerate holding for a trade to mature....what I mean is if you are happy with 20-30 pips using a 1 hour chart, your win rate could be as high as 75% or greater. If you can tolerate waiting for the ideal exit at predetermined levels based on breakout or previous swing levels, with stops positioned at least 10 pips above last entry level, should be at least 65% or higher...because time equals risk, the longer the trade the longer price can spike due to any number of...
Hi there Swede. I like the way your chart looks. Could you tell what you majorly look for at the levels where you initiate your positions?
  • #3,927
  • Jun 24, 2020 7:28am Jun 24, 2020 7:28am
Quoting Swede
{quote} The win rate really depends on you the trader....and just how long you can tolerate holding for a trade to mature....what I mean is if you are happy with 20-30 pips using a 1 hour chart, your win rate could be as high as 75% or greater. If you can tolerate waiting for the ideal exit at predetermined levels based on breakout or previous swing levels, with stops positioned at least 10 pips above last entry level, should be at least 65% or higher...because time equals risk, the longer the trade the longer price can spike due to any number of...
i am still using some elements of this trading approach, but rather for orientation purpose.
especially in the higher TF it helps like u said.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #3,928
  • Jun 24, 2020 1:28pm Jun 24, 2020 1:28pm
Quoting tobeeme
{quote} Hi there Swede. I like the way your chart looks. Could you tell what you majorly look for at the levels where you initiate your positions?

There are so many methods to trade it would take a book to even begin to touch on all the methods out there. I learned a long time ago to be the decision maker in my trades taking full responsibility for my exits and entries. I have also learned not to listen to people who have no track record of success and try to understand what successful people do to attain great results in all fields of endeavor. (thank you Tony Robins and Warren Buffet) Lets face it, FF is so full of opinions it chokes growth, inhibits ones ability to make decisions on their own if too much attention is given to any one thread. And even the really smart threads often get overwhelmed with jealousy by egomaniacs bent on destroying rather than building up.
But if you are sincere in asking how I analyze a potential trade based on the 3 bar system I an happy to share my thoughts. I will not post results nor post my entry or how much I made on the trade...that is for those who find the need to prove something...I will just attempt to show what I see based on historic charts....

1...When I walk into my office I have a 41 inch screen set up with 3 charts, the Weekly, Daily and the Hour chart...that's it unless I'm scalping but I wont elaborate on that for now. One glance will tell me the overall trend...when I'm clear on overall direction I will keep that trading page open to see what develops, checking in at the close of the hour....

2...Today I got into my office right at the open of the NY session.....a few hours previous there was a 3 bar set up (number 5)....two long candles heading north in a short market (looking at daily testing weekly R38 and failing...looking at the weekly trendline).......once new money (NY OPEN) took effect a test of the 3 bar set up (the open of the last 2 long candles in the set) we saw instant pull back...the entry.

3....Additional confluence was the area where the 3 bar set up (number 5) failed to go further north...yes right at the area pre-identified in my last post. So far the trade is good for 85 pips...and I expect more test at the bottom of the last swing south...but who knows for certain?

Anyway, you asked...and that is about as simple as it gets....a method that is very very profitable...only thing is it takes some patience. Usually there are a dozen or so that show themselves every week if you watch the majors and a couple of crosses...
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  • #3,929
  • Jun 25, 2020 1:03am Jun 25, 2020 1:03am
Quoting Swede
{quote} There are so many methods to trade it would take a book to even begin to touch on all the methods out there. I learned a long time ago to be the decision maker in my trades taking full responsibility for my exits and entries. I have also learned not to listen to people who have no track record of success and try to understand what successful people do to attain great results in all fields of endeavor. (thank you Tony Robins and Warren Buffet) Lets face it, FF is so full of opinions it chokes growth, inhibits ones ability to make decisions...
Thank you so much for sharing, Swede. Only about a year ago, I wouldn't have thought analyzing the markets could be this easy. Your above analysis and pictures make the concept so much clearer. I applaud your willingness to share once again.
  • #3,930
  • Jun 25, 2020 1:29am Jun 25, 2020 1:29am
Quoting Swede
{quote} There are so many methods to trade it would take a book to even begin to touch on all the methods out there. I learned a long time ago to be the decision maker in my trades taking full responsibility for my exits and entries. I have also learned not to listen to people who have no track record of success and try to understand what successful people do to attain great results in all fields of endeavor. (thank you Tony Robins and Warren Buffet) Lets face it, FF is so full of opinions it chokes growth, inhibits ones ability to make decisions...
very good posting, thx.
i mainly trade GU and that vehicle is great for this 3-bar pattern.
a pitty that FXC is not passing by
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #3,931
  • Jun 25, 2020 6:55am Jun 25, 2020 6:55am
Quoting Swede
{quote} There are so many methods to trade it would take a book to even begin to touch on all the methods out there. I learned a long time ago to be the decision maker in my trades taking full responsibility for my exits and entries. I have also learned not to listen to people who have no track record of success and try to understand what successful people do to attain great results in all fields of endeavor. (thank you Tony Robins and Warren Buffet) Lets face it, FF is so full of opinions it chokes growth, inhibits ones ability to make decisions...
Thanks for the detailed walk-through. Please continue to post more charts and explanations as they are very helpful.
  • #3,932
  • Jun 25, 2020 7:42am Jun 25, 2020 7:42am
Quoting Swede
{quote} There are so many methods to trade it would take a book to even begin to touch on all the methods out there. I learned a long time ago to be the decision maker in my trades taking full responsibility for my exits and entries. I have also learned not to listen to people who have no track record of success and try to understand what successful people do to attain great results in all fields of endeavor. (thank you Tony Robins and Warren Buffet) Lets face it, FF is so full of opinions it chokes growth, inhibits ones ability to make decisions...

This is my take on the GBP/USD chart you shared earlier. Daily trend is bearish so looking for a short on the 4hr chart.
Both entry and target were determined off of the Daily chart but checked off on the 4hr chart for 100+ pips. What do you think? Do you trade any time frame lower than 1hr?
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  • #3,933
  • Edited 10:13am Jun 25, 2020 10:01am | Edited 10:13am
Quoting tobeeme
{quote} This is my take on the GBP/USD chart you shared earlier. Daily trend is bearish so looking for a short on the 4hr chart. Both entry and target were determined off of the Daily chart but checked off on the 4hr chart for 100+ pips. What do you think? Do you trade any time frame lower than 1hr? {image}
I like the 1 hour because it reflects well with my trading time zone...I pretty much only make entries on the NY Session, then keep an eye on until close and make decision then whether to hold into Asia. Often the Asian session will reverse or retrace, so if I have a nice profit by 5 NY time I usually close. Trading cable on 5 min or 15 minute chart oscillates too much for me and holds me at my screen all day long which I try to avoid.

Anyway, I wouldn't be surprised to see cable test the pivot zone in the next few hours (see daily chart). All of my trades are break even at this point so whatever happens, happens....there isn't a person in the world who can tell you what is around the corner, but short is in our favor and an edge at the moment.
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  • #3,934
  • Edited 11:01am Jun 25, 2020 10:11am | Edited 11:01am
Quoting birdland
{quote} very good posting, thx. i mainly trade GU and that vehicle is great for this 3-bar pattern. a pitty that FXC is not passing by
Agree...I have never met the man, have no idea who he might be....but after taking some time to study what he was saying, It really sparked my imagination....I really hate indicators because of their lagging nature...I do like levels like pivots, measured moves, fib fans, octaves levels and so on because often direction changes occur at those levels...look at the cable daily chart Im posting with monthly pivots...kind of a no brainer hey?

What I was trying to say is, FXC says you do not need anything on your chart except candles and mark off entry, stop and take profit. I like some addtional confluence, like a major pivot level, or fib level, or directional trend line to give me the confidence to pull the trigger....but that is just me...
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  • #3,935
  • Jun 25, 2020 10:20am Jun 25, 2020 10:20am
And then look at this....the daily has a 3 bar set up....and price retraced overnight right to the entry level and began falling again....so can you see why I use the 3 charts to direct traffic my way? without them I would be just guessing direction, gambling on occilations etc. I want an edge, not a gamble...
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  • #3,936
  • Jun 25, 2020 3:04pm Jun 25, 2020 3:04pm
I had a question from a trader from Poland....Hi Paul..... who finds difficulty determining Market Structure Levels or take profit levels that FXC talks about extensively. This is a little trick you can do on the side....in this case I will use a 1 hour chart...(.do the same on whatever time frame you trade from) Squeeze up the chart a bit to make levels of oscillation very clear...these are your potential take profit levels and also entries if you get some nice 3 bar set ups....
Anyway...the point is each one of these boxes are levels that either changed direction, or broke away....and they will be tested over and over...some are strong levels, some are weak level, but all witnessed a change from the structure price was locked into.

In today's case...can you now see why GBP is struggling to move further down?...., so for many who use this method if they are short from the level we talked about earlier...you may want to take profit...or take partial profit and leave a runner that may make it down to the "strong support" area we identified with our last box...
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  • #3,937
  • Jun 25, 2020 3:32pm Jun 25, 2020 3:32pm
Excellent information Swede! Thank you for posting that. :-)
  • #3,938
  • Jun 26, 2020 10:16am Jun 26, 2020 10:16am
For the benefit of those of you who have been following the progression of GBP as it moves ever lower...here is the follow up from post 3934 3935 and so on.....as you can see the target was reached and is now sitting in an area where you must consider profits...this is a major area so at the minimum partial profits should be taken. There still may be more fall out due to at the instability of the markets, but this is also an area that could surprise everyone for a retrace....anyway, I think you can all see how this was managed during the week...I hope this little tutorial has helped some of you to see the value of 1. The 3 bar engulphing set up,2..the market structure to pinpoint probable take profit areas, 3....trading with the trend....4where to place stops...
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  • #3,939
  • Jun 26, 2020 5:29pm Jun 26, 2020 5:29pm
A trader from Singapore wanted to know how to filter trades using weekly pivots and the 3 bar engulfing method. So I will try to articulate how I use pivots with this method, but I must say they are TWO separate disciplines entirely, but pivots complement and add confluence to my trades. Davit is a master at trading weekly pivots, no question there. And he would be the first one to look at price action around his entries, and this is not all that different except for one thing......the 3 bar method here is to alert the retail trader when the market makers have stepped away from their maneuvers, letting the market go where it may, at least temporarily. Not much is talked about that subject but time and time again I have witnessed the moves out of these areas and that is why I said before...when I see a completed pattern I start paying attention to that level. Seldom have I experienced more than a 10 pip stop....very seldom if the set up is correct.

But combined, weekly pivots to show sup/resistance and where you might decide to close works very well....my example is the trade number 5 we have talked about the last few posts, so this is how I use pivots along with that entry that was far from the pivots...

1....Absolutely and positively you need to identify the trend...squeeze your trading chart as much as needed to identify and clarify the trend shown on the upper time frames, daily, weekly. Can you see now why the number 5 trade was very much with the trend....actually I only had a 5 pip stop on the initial entry....had a larger stop on the entry that was entered later because more retrace could have taken place....but didnt thankfully.

2....the perfect pattern is the two previous candles should be much the same body size...and the engulfing candles body must engulf the candle s,next to it but should not engulf both previous candles, but if it does make sure you wait for the retrace to test the level....the body of these candles are all we are interested in...pins are of little consequence.

3....identify market structure...as shown in post 3936.....or...or use weekly pivots as shown.
Notice where the addition was made? Yes, just after the penetration of the weekly pivot and the retrace that challenged that area and failed.

4....Now, I also have the monthly pivots on my daily and weekly charts, finding them to be powerful stops/reversals, stalling points and so on but that would be up to everyone's preference.

Anyway, for now I will close this discussion....I would be happy to answer your questions from my perspective if interested. I will check in periodically and you can ask in the forum, then everyone can see the reply and see if it is relevant to their style, etc

Swede
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  • #3,940
  • Jun 27, 2020 3:58am Jun 27, 2020 3:58am
Quoting Swede
2....the perfect pattern is the two previous candles should be much the same body size...and the engulfing candles body must engulf the candle s,next to it but should not engulf both previous candles, but if it does make sure you wait for the retrace to test the level....the body of these candles are all we are interested in...pins are of little consequence.
Thank you for taking the time to elaborate on your trades.

Using trade #5 as an example, I’m curious as to why the Engulfing candle should not engulf candles 1 and 2. Would it not hint at a more powerful reaction if the Bearish Engulfing candle can envelope both of them?

Also, assuming the Stop Loss isn’t too far out, would you say that waiting for a retest before entry is important vs entering below the Engulfing candle (to go Short)?

Quoting Swede
3....identify market structure...as shown in post 3936.....or...or use weekly pivots as shown. Notice where the addition was made? Yes, just after the penetration of the weekly pivot and the retrace that challenged that area and failed.
That’s a good illustration. To summarize, identify the trend so we trade in accordance to the direction of the trend when the 3-bar Engulfing setup is found. Enter on a retest of the setup (not sure if essential). And if we have the Weekly pivots, we can enter or add positions in the direction of the trend when price bounces off or rejects the Pivot lines.
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