Menu
Sister Sites

Options

Bookmark Thread

First Page First Unread Last Page Last Post

Print Thread

Similar Threads

Looking for a Developer to Finetune a Semi Martingale Algo 0 replies

Crowd-sharing model for open source algo trading platform 2 replies

Growing Neural Gas Algo for FX trading 2 replies

Veloce algo trading 13 replies

Best of four ECNs for algo trading? 3 replies

Attachments: Real or Algo
Exit Attachments

Real or Algo

I agree that the Algo is controllling and manipulating everything, my question is what about the role of banks in the market when they have large currency exchange transactions to complete as well, is this all factored into the way the Algo runs or independent of it?
Quoting Profitgrowth
I agree that the Algo is controllling and manipulating everything, my question is what about the role of banks in the market when they have large currency exchange transactions to complete as well, is this all factored into the way the Algo runs or independent of it?
Depends on how it adds to specific market liquidity, i.e. affects supply and demand, order flow on the exchange. I guess the bank which actively participates in some form supply and demand on an exchange will be examined by algos too.
  • Post #23
  • Quote
  • Edited 6:57am Apr 22, 2020 6:26am | Edited 6:57am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Moodybot George Aus did tell us how the algo works both in Skype calls and within his posts Most of us including myself just overlooked his words on expansion and went straight to his target levels and his TMA settings. It took me 5 months to work it out by removing the TMA’s and applying mathematics. But basically he is 100% correct. Cheers
Expansions changed my day TODAY!

I didn't get them till today and now applying them!And yes I agree it is mathematical relation and price "control" to prevent it from going nuts. Expansions and targets are the new black for me!

Thx for posting this

D
Had a chat with George today, went over a few items of interest. He sends his regards to all.
I think the most important part of the conversation, to me, was that his charts, method and approach is identical to when I first conversed with him over a year ago. Nothing has changed. He was right about the market then and he is now.
Psychology and targets.
Cheers George.

A.
Moodybot, if it's OK with you I recommend this thread for trading strategy.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=993524
Trade the value
Quoting BWilliam
Moodybot, if it's OK with you I recommend this thread for trading strategy. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=993524

This is an open thread, so if a trader can find substance within you’re recommendation then that’s absolutely fine.
I would like to say that as yet I haven’t seen anything remotely useful to me written down about trading apart from in George’s original thread and of course Zoltans journal. I’m not for once suggesting that some threads don’t contain useful information but I have been privileged as a few others have over the last year to an insight into how the market maker (Algo) traps traders...both longs and shorts, trapped at the same time and with the evidence clearly shown on a blank chart.
Most threads are technical and unless the psychological aspect is addressed, I just don’t think they’ll stand the test of time.
Personally I’m still getting the hang of the psychological approach, technicals I’m fine with, but one is rarely going to work without the other.
Not looking to step on anyone’s toes, just my own observation and as I said, an open debate.

A.
Nice thread Moody! Gonna be following it.

I am not a very informed and smart person when it comes to Algos and Maths in trading.. but I do use Fibs in my trading as my main tool for entries and money managment calculations.

I do agree psychology and own discretion in trading is the most important thing.

When you talk about "targets".. you mean own personal targets for the day, week or month?? Let's say as an example 0,25% daily, 1,25% weekly, 5% monthly?

Or you talk about other kind of targets?

GMD
Keep it simple All Time Return: na
Quoting moodybot
{quote} This is an open thread, so if a trader can find substance within you’re recommendation then that’s absolutely fine. I would like to say that as yet I haven’t seen anything remotely useful to me written down about trading apart from in George’s original thread and of course Zoltans journal. I’m not for once suggesting that some threads don’t contain useful information but I have been privileged as a few others have over the last year to an insight into how the market maker (Algo) traps traders...both longs and shorts, trapped at the same...
Good that you found your strategy with George and Zoltan.

I don't use TA anymore. It's little known value trading that this poster described in his post.
Quoting copi88
The problem with these areas and why they dont work every time is the institutions will only start to re-accumulate in those areas if they identify that they have value to do so. i.e. they either value the currency with their models to be trading at a discount or a premium. They will never buy or sell unless they have value otherwise they are paying retail prices instead of wholesale and will never be able to make a profit when they offload their stock.

Technical analysis will only get one so far. If one does not know the value of what you are...
Trade the value
Quoting dkrock
{quote} You do realize the post refers to the Equities Market? The Equities Market is highly fundamental in nature, so that is where the idea of "value" comes from. In Forex there is a profitable technical analysis trade approximately every 20-45 minutes. Obviously some are sooner and some last longer and some are more profitable than others, but if you get lucky and price is ranging, there are easily 15-18 profitable trades per day per pair. If you prefer to intraday swing, you can expect 3-8 trades per day per pair. I don't know about higher time...
That analysis was on AUDUSD.

You definitely can be a successful trader using just technical, or just fundamental but then perhaps your win rate will be around 65% if you are very good.
The way I was trained was to use value models in conjunction with fundamentals and then lastly use technical analysis and market timing (volume cycles) to complete the picture. We needed to construct a narrative on why we want to take the trade. Using all these factors win rate goes above 85% and with orderflow analysis the stops can be very small.

My trade on GU this morning:
Fundamental - Asian markets where bullish creating a risk on tone. This will be negative USD. Due to how the bond markets moved overnight I knew there had to be selling on the UK Gilts and therefore this would create buying on the Pound. The Dax and FTSE both opened undervalued against global markets and this buying pressure on them would add to the risk on tone. In addition bonds where overpriced.
Technical - We want to deal at the high volume cycles when the institutions are involved. ie 7am , 8am 13:30-14:30 (LDN time), need to find a confluence of levels where liquidity will exist and lastly we need to observe orderflow.
Value - On my value model I need the white line to be above the red line and for the red line to be divergent from price.

My entry was at the red arrow where there is a convergence of liquidity zones. Its the wholesale price level of 1.2300, the 50% retracement level of the move from the low, and VWAP right at the LDN. Drawdown less that a tick. I can post a pic of the orderflow tomorrow.

First target was in the red box and second at 1.2375

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: PrI7NCD.png Size: 307 KB
Boxing clever since 76.
Quoting GMD
Nice thread Moody! Gonna be following it. I am not a very informed and smart person when it comes to Algos and Maths in trading.. but I do use Fibs in my trading as my main tool for entries and money managment calculations. I do agree psychology and own discretion in trading is the most important thing. When you talk about "targets".. you mean own personal targets for the day, week or month?? Let's say as an example 0,25% daily, 1,25% weekly, 5% monthly? Or you talk about other kind of targets? GMD

Hi GMD

Targets are the lines drawn on my chart in the second post.
They reflect daily/weekly tops and bottoms. I also use H4 for intraday.
How price reacts at these levels is usually interpreted as support and resistance, supply demand etc..
Incorrectly in my view. Personally I believe the Algo sets the turning points as an enticement where stops trailing stops will naturally congregate and as price takes out the stops then that particular target is done, but a new fresh target is left behind. Rinse and repeat.
Price action around these targets is such that longs as well as shorts can and will be taken out, that is all the Algo has to do.
A revisit more than once to a target, sometimes within a tenth of a pip again in my view is a very well calculated move, this then becomes an area of extreme interest to us, George calls it Herd Mentality.

A.
Is this Support and resistance, supply and demand......or just an Algo messing with psychology.
What would a trader think...support. Solid
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ Trap Set.png Size: 35 KB
Spot the trap.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY Trap Set 2.png Size: 29 KB
Quoting copi88
{quote} That analysis was on AUDUSD. You definitely can be a successful trader using just technical, or just fundamental but then perhaps your win rate will be around 65% if you are very good. The way I was trained was to use value models in conjunction with fundamentals and then lastly use technical analysis and market timing (volume cycles) to complete the picture. We needed to construct a narrative on why we want to take the trade. Using all these factors win rate goes above 85% and with orderflow analysis the stops can be very small. My trade...
Nice trade copi.

This is a trade call made few days ago. Math based value model allows me to calculate future overvalued and undervalued price targets. For EU overvalued target of 1.0900 market tested it for the last 3 days with closest at 1.08968. Purpose of this post is to hint the thread the bull bias is incorrect.

EA undervalued target of 1.70166 was tested with 1.70169. Purpose of this call is to hint the trader with open trade to take profit.
Quoting BWilliam
For EU, the trade can be seen on h1 chart. Price tested Fridays high and 1.0900. Possibly same like Friday fall at the top. For EA, price testing Friday low at 1.70166. will break or not? Not sure, strong level for whole of last week so unlikely to break.
I have made many such value model live calls on this forum. This value model calculates fair value, together with overvalue and undervalue extremes in a continuous fashion for all timescale. Live calls are proof of concept.
(It does not look back at previous high lows in the typical linear manner.)

If average Joe retail trader can devise such a value model, imagine what the best quants do achieve.
Trade the value
  • Post #34
  • Quote
  • Edited Apr 23, 2020 7:14pm Apr 22, 2020 9:38pm | Edited Apr 23, 2020 7:14pm
Howdy Andy ,,,

My Input and HUMBLE opinion on the so called ALGO running this game ,,,

Would like to share something we discussed in detail yesterday in our conversation ,,,

Here it is ,,,,,

I truly believe ,,,
Once a trader can master the 3 points ,,,
They will have mastered this game ! ! !

Cheers
George
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3 ENEMIES.png Size: 38 KB
LOVE YOUR GAME WITH A PASSION ,,,,, WORK WITH A VISION ! ! ! ! !
Quoting George AUS
Howdy Andy ,,, My Input and HUMBLE opinion on the so called ALGO running this game ,,, Would like to share something we discussed in detail yesterday in our conversation ,,, Here it is ,,,,, I truly believe ,,, Once a trader can master the 3 points ,,, They will have mastered this game ! ! ! Cheers George {image}
Hey George

Few would disagree with you, I certainly cant.

Thanks for taking the time.

A.
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Nice trade copi. This is a trade call made few days ago. Math based value model allows me to calculate future overvalued and undervalued price targets. For EU overvalued target of 1.0900 market tested it for the last 3 days with closest at 1.08968. Purpose of this post is to hint the thread the bull bias is incorrect. EA undervalued target of 1.70166 was tested with 1.70169. Purpose of this call is to hint the trader with open trade to take profit. {quote} I have made many such value model live calls on this forum. This value model...
Thanks for the post, food for thought.

I like the idea of working out a fair price, and following that overvalued undervalued price at targets.
Will look into it, might have to dig my old nemesis..(excel) out of the cupboard.

Cheers.

A.
Quoting George AUS
Howdy Andy ,,, My Input and HUMBLE opinion on the so called ALGO running this game ,,, Would like to share something we discussed in detail yesterday in our conversation ,,, Here it is ,,,,, I truly believe ,,, Once a trader can master the 3 points ,,, They will have mastered this game ! ! ! Cheers George {image}
Nice to see you posting again George.

Hope you are looking after your health and yourself and your family.

Warmest Regards
Anthony
Empty your mind and let the market guide you
Good to see you guys back in this thread..as per the first few posts we do see that price returns to those so called "support & resistance zones". Why psychology is most important is because we all can see these zones being created and price misses it by a pip or so then moves away, comes back to touch the zone a couple of times. The biggest problem for most is to use psychology to know when this zones will be broken to get to their targets. At times it reaches the target just after a couple of visits while at times the zones are strong for 5 plus visits. There are tools to use but its 90% psychology to know what these big players are doing. Never easy but few on this thread have done it. For me its still a long way away I guess. Was having a look at the USD/JPY chart. Decent zone with a few visits but still trying hard to understand when this will be broken clearly to get to the next target. Subscribed to see if we can get some gold nuggets from you guys.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYM15.png Size: 50 KB
Quoting whitesta
Good to see you guys back in this thread..as per the first few posts we do see that price returns to those so called "support & resistance zones". Why psychology is most important is because we all can see these zones being created and price misses it by a pip or so then moves away, comes back to touch the zone a couple of times. The biggest problem for most is to use psychology to know when this zones will be broken to get to their targets. At times it reaches the target just after a couple of visits while at times the zones are strong for 5 plus...
Hi Whitesta. It looks like you are well on your way and probably don't need to read this but just wanted to share a post from George that really helped me and still does.

Quoting George AUS
THE TARGET THEORY SETTING TARGETS ========================================================= Howdy all ,,, As i stated in the very last post regarding having all of the theories I wanted to share here ,,,, IT WAS THE END OF WHAT WILL BE SHARED ON THE THEORIES ,,,,, SO ,,,, I will try as much as i can ,,,, To keep fine tuning day by day as i see fit ,, when i am reading through posts from the different Family members ,,,, Also from time to time ,, I will be posting added important information ,,, Which is ,,,, what i am doing here today ,,, =================================================================================...
Empty your mind and let the market guide you
Quoting whitesta
Good to see you guys back in this thread..as per the first few posts we do see that price returns to those so called "support & resistance zones". Why psychology is most important is because we all can see these zones being created and price misses it by a pip or so then moves away, comes back to touch the zone a couple of times. The biggest problem for most is to use psychology to know when this zones will be broken to get to their targets. At times it reaches the target just after a couple of visits while at times the zones are strong for 5 plus...
There are people who search for this channel and secret settings, here's one. I modified the original based on the settings of my deceased buddy. Hope this helps someone out there.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 #MTF Force channel v1.0.ex4   17 KB | 893 downloads
Trade the value
0 traders viewing now