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1H Swing Trading on EURUSD

  • #561
  • Apr 16, 2020 11:40pm Apr 16, 2020 11:40pm
Quoting broketrader
{quote} Yes, the new swing low is sitting now around 1.0840/50, and trend 20-12 is there but I see it a bit aggressive, I think that after price consolidates we will have to push the lower part to the right, we will be fixed tomorrow at close... {image} Edit, have drawn this solid one that for me looks more viable, we'll see.. {image}

Nice call! You were spot on! It was too aggressive
Rise or fall....a better me!
  • #562
  • Apr 17, 2020 12:54am Apr 17, 2020 12:54am
Quoting broketrader
{quote} Well the system doesn't trade m1 so I won't make any change in that sense, but you can modifiy the indicator for that, like I did for m5, by multiplying the value of the m5 periods by 5 and you're done. Understand that if I answer every single request to modify a bit for everyone's need, then I will spend my whole day doing that and I don't want to enter that game. That said, my feeling is that if you're looking at m1 is because you want to make very precise entries, maybe because you will have very tight stops ? If that's the case, then...
i see the structure and the pattern clearer on m1.. but its ok with m5 too...almost same..
thanks for sharing great indicator
today close sell EURUSD +45 pips
  • #563
  • Apr 17, 2020 9:48am Apr 17, 2020 9:48am
Hi @broketrader how are you?
What do you think of today's moviement?
After the new low he turned very fast.
How will you manage your position from now?
Happy weekend to everyone
  • #564
  • Apr 17, 2020 10:30am Apr 17, 2020 10:30am
Quoting FrancescoDTM
Hi @broketrader how are you? What do you think of today's moviement? After the new low he turned very fast. How will you manage your position from now? Happy weekend to everyone
Hi Francesco, I'm tired let evaporate so many profits

Not managing anything anymore, I have reached my maximum level of loss (15%) so enough battle for today !

I insisted because I thought that 2 1/2 days was too short of a trend so my assumption was that the trend line break was a fake and that the down move would resume, well no, the trend break was the dead canary in the mine

Maybe the lesson here is to get out early or close partially and eventually re-enter if we are back in the trend...
Will think about it next time, now I humbly accept the loss without regrets and prepare for the next, there will be another trend another day.

Now it looks like we will have soon a buy signal but I will wait Monday, need to reset my counters and relax during the weekend, happy weekend too, thanks
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #565
  • Apr 18, 2020 2:54am Apr 18, 2020 2:54am
Improving the system. Better timed entries revisited
with post-mortem analysis of 20-12 entry and trend violation.

With the analysis of this week failure, I came to the conclusion that I have to change and improve my entries to cope with short trends or with trend-line violations which is the current situation as we don't have a new signal yet.

Until now I was used to one to three weeks duration trends, I think because the market was particularly favorable to my method but now as we see it consolidating, I must adapt to fast changes while at the same time not changing the original nature of the system and maintain a good control on risk with the three step entry method.

Looking at this recent failure,

What worked well:
Trend anticipation at the break of 20-11.
Adding on first retracement, when SMA was tested.

What failed:
Entering late on wave 2, on the expectation that the trend would continue.
Adding more after the trend break while in fact I should have closed the whole trade for a nice profit.

Conclusions:
The entry time window must be shortened and for that I will definitely remove any entry at wave 2.
Then, the main events that remain to build the position, are:

1. Previous trend-line break => Anticipation of a change in price direction.
2. Signal => Main Event, confirmation of 1.
3. Retracement => Last call to finalize.

Entry weight distribution at each event, entry step.

1. Anticipation.

At a later time, when the trends is confirmed, this will usually be the best entry, so a substantial amount of the final position must be allocated to this event. At the same time we must limit the losses in case of a fake move. I think that 50% of final position fits well those 2 constraints.
The entry must be cancelled as soon as the price goes back into the previous trend, this goes without discussion.

2. Signal.

At the moment we get there, the chances of a price direction change improve but it's also usually the moment at which we will have a retracement. We still need to enter if we are not too far from SMA-96 like 20-30 pips as we don't know how far the price will continue its course and if it will ever retrace later. The weight allocated to this event will be 20%.

3. Retracement.

We are now 50% or 70 % in the trade and this is the moment at which the SMA-96 gets tested more often than not, around 80% of the time and I wonder why I haven't seen this earlier! At this event we enter the remaining 30% or 50% if we didn't enter at 2.

And the good news...

With this new simplified and clear entry procedure, there is no need anymore to have the SRSI-168 indicator and to look at the 5 minutes time frame! This will add clarity and simplification and you know that I pay special attention at keeping things simple.
The only issue that we will encounter from time to time, except for the fake moves of course, will be the price not retracing to SMA leaving us with a position of only 50% or 70% of the entire entry, I think that it's the price to pay to be in control of the risk at each stage. I can live with that...

Some chart examples. 1,2,3 arrows show the three events/steps entry method, no more waves and 5 min charts needed !

1. Current 20-12 trend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 107 KB


2. Previously 20-12 failed trend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 104 KB


3. Previous 20-11 trend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 107 KB
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #566
  • Apr 18, 2020 3:12am Apr 18, 2020 3:12am
It's all fun and games until this starts happening for a while...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.png Size: 67 KB
  • #567
  • Apr 18, 2020 3:14am Apr 18, 2020 3:14am
Hi Broketrader,
I believe that your analysis does not make a turn and that it is much simpler in this way.
Have a nice weekend
  • #568
  • Apr 18, 2020 3:25am Apr 18, 2020 3:25am
Quoting valesch
It's all fun and games until this starts happening for a while... {image}

Money management is key.

All systems have periods of drawdowns. There is a distribution cycle between winners and losers. There were times like that and will be again.When it will be we don't know.

Thank you for sharing these areas of consolidation in history as recency bias can often be misleading.
When preparation meets oppertunity
  • #569
  • Apr 18, 2020 3:34am Apr 18, 2020 3:34am
Quoting broketrader
Improving the system........... {image}
Hi BK,

Thank you for your post and analysis of the past week's activity.

I would first like to salute and commend you for making your system and trading public as you have with a Trade Explorer and posts regarding your thoughts and entries. This is not always an easy thing to do.

Constant refinement is key to success as we all know. You have certainly done well this year so far and I believe you will continue with this success. I will be following and trading along with this system for a long time.

All the best with next week and I look forward to seeing your system at work.
When preparation meets oppertunity
  • #570
  • Apr 18, 2020 3:39am Apr 18, 2020 3:39am
Quoting valesch
It's all fun and games until this starts happening for a while... {image}
The screen below is 3 months, Aug-Oct but you choose to only show approx 12 days, the rectangle in red !
And if you had read the thread, I talk about that exact period in post #6 how fun is that !

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 151 KB
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #571
  • Apr 18, 2020 3:49am Apr 18, 2020 3:49am
BK,

Here is my activity for the past week. I hope you don't mind me sharing my trades here. ( I am happy to remove if you don't want it posted here.)

As you say, the signal of the color change of 96SMA can produce a signal that is often followed by a retrace and a test of the SMA area. I am using a limit order to add in that next bit of the trade to make it simple for me.

This is only my second set of trades with this system so still looking at a lot that can be improved from my side.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_1.png Size: 47 KB
When preparation meets oppertunity
  • #572
  • Apr 18, 2020 3:51am Apr 18, 2020 3:51am
Quoting GingerBoloks
{quote} Hi BK, Thank you for your post and analysis of the past week's activity. I would first like to salute and commend you for making your system and trading public as you have with a Trade Explorer and posts regarding your thoughts and entries. This is not always an easy thing to do. Constant refinement is key to success as we all know. You have certainly done well this year so far and I believe you will continue with this success. I will be following and trading along with this system for a long time. All the best with next week and I look...
Hi GingerBoloks,

Thanks for the supporting words, you don't have to worry about me, the system is not perfect and will never be, I know that and I sleep well with that
I trade it firstly for myself, the goal being to go till the end of the year and see how the year went and if I was profitable, we are far from there so we'll see.

And yes, I'm being aggressive, pushing it to the limits but that's my business, still some don't understand that simple concept, well...

Thank you and have a nice weekend.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #573
  • Apr 18, 2020 3:59am Apr 18, 2020 3:59am
Quoting GingerBoloks
BK, Here is my activity for the past week. I hope you don't mind me sharing my trades here. ( I am happy to remove if you don't want it posted here.) As you say, the signal of the color change of 96SMA can produce a signal that is often followed by a retrace and a test of the SMA area. I am using a limit order to add in that next bit of the trade to make it simple for me. This is only my second set of trades with this system so still looking at a lot that can be improved from my side. {image}
No problem for anyone posting their trades and discussing the entries and system itself, what I don't want is people adding additional filters, indicators, and then others asking for those and the parameters, and so, and rapidly all become a mess.

I see just one thing missing in your chart, the trend-lines ! Otherwise I see you had some good trades
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #574
  • Apr 18, 2020 4:20am Apr 18, 2020 4:20am
Quoting GingerBoloks
{quote} Money management is key. All systems have periods of drawdowns. There is a distribution cycle between winners and losers. There were times like that and will be again.When it will be we don't know. Thank you for sharing these areas of consolidation in history as recency bias can often be misleading.
Yes, if consolidation are not overly exaggerated (which can happen too..) MM can save you not losing all the gains of the trending phases.
Still, you will lose a substantial amount of your gains in these and there is nothing one can do about.. all part of the game.
  • #575
  • Apr 18, 2020 4:38am Apr 18, 2020 4:38am
I did not meant to doscourage you broketrader! Just served as a reminder.
You have a fine strategy there and applied with due & diligence it will definitely make returns in the long run!
Especially now that you have refined your entries.
  • #576
  • Apr 18, 2020 5:15am Apr 18, 2020 5:15am
Nice strategy getting closer to perfection. The Achilles heels i have seeing twice now is the fundamental/news. Yesterday the US stock appreciate so dollar goes down. Well done sir
  • #577
  • Apr 19, 2020 12:36am Apr 19, 2020 12:36am
Quoting Oracheal
Nice strategy getting closer to perfection. The Achilles heels i have seeing twice now is the fundamental/news. Yesterday the US stock appreciate so dollar goes down. Well done sir
Hi Oracheal,
Don't fall in the trap of the perfect strategy, this is not one and that just doesn't exist.
What I'm trying to do is simply to find a way of limiting the risk when trading it.

Always be alert when you trade any strategy, including this one !
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #578
  • Apr 19, 2020 12:56am Apr 19, 2020 12:56am
Time to move to next trade and implement the new entry strategy.

After a series of three Lower Highs and Lower Lows, we got suddenly a Higher High plus a break of the recent trend-line, two reasons to initiate a long trade.

There is still the possibility of this being only a counter-trend given the short age of 20-12 (half week) so instead of adding 50% as Anticipation entry I will go with 33%, of final position, another 33% will be added at step 2, this will limit my exposure in the case 20-12 resumes.

On the MM side, I have also reduced my total risk for this trade to 10% of account instead of 15% previously, The current price is not far from the close at trend-line break, so still a good level to enter.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 89 KB
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #579
  • Apr 19, 2020 3:03am Apr 19, 2020 3:03am
hi broketrader

this my option base from this strategy...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 68 KB
i'm ever lose $2000, now time to go grow up
  • #580
  • Apr 19, 2020 7:08am Apr 19, 2020 7:08am
Quoting LiarTrader
hi broketrader this my option base from this strategy... {image}
Well I don't really know what to think about your post as whatever happens one of your 2 options will be right sooner or later.
In all cases, there is no need to predict anything but just follow the signals...

Now, just 2 remarks about your chart...

Your rising trend is a daily one, too high time-frame for this system, even if we are testing/breaking it now, we can pay attention to it but no really need to care.
And you cherry pick the points for your downward trend completely ignoring the top of the last up trend which for me is wrong.

Just my 2 cents.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
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