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  • #281
  • Apr 16, 2020 9:31pm Apr 16, 2020 9:31pm
ES is at 2,880 tonight. This rally is starting to push the boundary of what I was expecting out of a bear market rally. I'm not buying into the V thesis just yet, but if this continues I'll have to reconsider it.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #282
  • Apr 17, 2020 2:30am Apr 17, 2020 2:30am
Quoting EF5
ES is at 2,880 tonight. This rally is starting to push the boundary of what I was expecting out of a bear market rally. I'm not buying into the V thesis just yet, but if this continues I'll have to reconsider it.
Yeah officially in drawdown in comparison to big shorts, several bad trades added up to nearly 80% of what I made off them [shorts on es and nq back before crash]

Rough part is that most of the trades we're [in my opinon] fairly solid, but timing was weak and SLs maybe too close. Really rough watching nearly my entire spread go up after SLs have been filling for weeks. There were some revenge trades I wont lie, but alot of them I do believe in hindsight could be fairly justified as pretentious as that sounds.

Made abit off some metal predictions yesterday, but have had so many issues with energy so many sells in some cases minutes before launch and im not just talking about the recent WTI deal breakout, this has been for weeks now.

I dont trade futures with more than a certain portion of my portfolio and in the past I've tended to only make withdraws out of futures account into long term investing accounts [I use different accounts for objectives on the portfolios in those] but kinda getting to the point now where I'm gonna have to fund the futures account to chase highs I was riding, or lower sizing to the point where I'd rather just focus on equity. Not sure what I'll do but been really rough watching quotes regardless.

Sometimes I wonder if I need a different approach to futures strategies, in terms of longing some of these positions/commodities. Because either rushed/poorly timed or maybe just unlucky and shit has been off ranging. But it seems like im trading too big candles for the SLs or entries I have.

Shitty.

Another part of trading though, happens to everyone.
rennstimp
  • #283
  • Apr 17, 2020 2:45am Apr 17, 2020 2:45am
Looking at gold if support hold.
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #284
  • Apr 17, 2020 9:23am Apr 17, 2020 9:23am
Hi Ren here and example of an high prob setup. Don't know if it will work out but ...

M15 bounce example

  1. trendline broken
  2. retest trendline

    1. alinged with support
    2. aligned with fib retracement

waiting for candle confirmation

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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #285
  • Apr 17, 2020 9:32am Apr 17, 2020 9:32am
Quoting Ll1979
Hi Ren here and example of an high prob setup. Don't know if it will work out but ... M15 bounce example trendline broken retest trendline alinged with support aligned with fib retracement waiting for candle confirmation {image}
Trendline still intact but probability shrinks
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #286
  • Apr 17, 2020 9:55am Apr 17, 2020 9:55am
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} Trendline still intact but probability shrinks {image}
didn't take it but 78.6% fib and lower support zone started the ignition
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #287
  • Apr 20, 2020 1:59am Apr 20, 2020 1:59am
natgas 15m

might enter ehhhh the volume isnt that appealing and in gc atm

also might be relevant with oil bankruptcies

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...ID-Crisis.html
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rennstimp
  • #288
  • Apr 20, 2020 5:35am Apr 20, 2020 5:35am
natgas not looking too bad pretty strong actually.
rennstimp
  • #289
  • Apr 20, 2020 5:55am Apr 20, 2020 5:55am
I am not strong on the options but what are the current options/prices to secure OPTION to buy OIL (WTI) at this prices 1year after?
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #290
  • Apr 20, 2020 5:59am Apr 20, 2020 5:59am
Quoting auricforecas
I am not strong on the options but what are the current options/prices to secure OPTION to buy OIL (WTI) at this prices 1year after?
High and not very optimal

If you wanted to make the same play I would look at options for equity that have been hit by oil crash more so but thats just me
rennstimp
  • #291
  • Apr 20, 2020 6:28am Apr 20, 2020 6:28am
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} High and not very optimal If you wanted to make the same play I would look at options for equity that have been hit by oil crash more so but thats just me
So they do expect the recovery, otherwise I would reasoned those options would be cheap?
Also, yes, interesting suggestion, to in-directly trade it...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #292
  • Apr 20, 2020 7:17am Apr 20, 2020 7:17am
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} So they do expect the recovery, otherwise I would reasoned those options would be cheap... Also, yes, interesting suggestion, to in-directly trade it...
they except a buyer nothing else.

sidenote; haven't touched wti in awhile but is anyone else seeing this holy fucking shit crude what the fuck
rennstimp
  • #293
  • Apr 20, 2020 8:45am Apr 20, 2020 8:45am
I feel like i should be making some moves into crude but not sure the best instrument at the moment, contracts are all over the place.

Xau running really well might just let it run and wait a day, not entirely sure.

/cl contracts seem odd, and not entirely sure what the best one would be given how absolutely crazy this shit is
rennstimp
  • #294
  • Apr 20, 2020 10:05pm Apr 20, 2020 10:05pm
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} they except a buyer nothing else. sidenote; haven't touched wti in awhile but is anyone else seeing this holy fucking shit crude what the fuck
Yeah, today was insane. I get going negative, but -$40? That’s a lot of money to anyone who can store it. A buddy of mine was trying to put something together to buy a million barrels but it didn’t work out. Hypothetically if he could just store it for a month he’d make $60m risk free.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #295
  • Edited Apr 22, 2020 6:47am Apr 21, 2020 3:44pm | Edited Apr 22, 2020 6:47am
Quoting EF5
{quote} Yeah, today was insane. I get going negative, but -$40? That’s a lot of money to anyone who can store it. A buddy of mine was trying to put something together to buy a million barrels but it didn’t work out. Hypothetically if he could just store it for a month he’d make $60m risk free.
Yeah absolutely nuts. I dont even know how to process crude that low so wont add an opinion to it outside of all the derivatives for crude are all over the place. If I was looking into crude would be more concerned with instrument rather than underlying since it seems to be imploding from multiple different contracts/instruments.

Feel bad for crude traders; that crash was just so fucking abnormal. Can imagine alot of people got killed by it

Been just scalping gold swings personally on 5m and 15m with a few other positions. I'm fairly bullish long term. It seems like a decent hedge in both another crash and a staggering spx in next few weeks scenario

08's crash had gold peaking just a few months after spx crash, it wasnt until spx filled gaps from losses from 08 that roughly xau started to lose steam [check image spyvsxau]

Although crude's price is proof that the market is (or has potential to be) off-ranged hard so practicing alot of precaution as well.

17xx is a tough resistance but seems like bears are less in control than last week and on a 17xx break I think 1800-2100 is doable in shorter time period than people think.
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rennstimp
  • #296
  • Edited 11:27am Apr 22, 2020 6:39am | Edited 11:27am
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote} Yeah absolutely nuts. I dont even know how to process crude that low so wont add an opinion to it. All the derivatives are all over the place and if I was looking into crude would be more concerned with instrument rather than underlying since it seems to be imploding from multiple different contracts/instruments. Feel bad for crude traders; that crash was just so fucking abnormal. Can imagine alot of people got killed by it Been just scalping gold swings personally on 5m and 15m with a few other positions. I'm fairly bullish long term. It...
Closed for some nice returns, opened spx shorts shortly after close, think we can see some red today, the uptrend seems to be losing steam and doesnt seem too bad a order for some short term trades / 1h candles
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rennstimp
  • #297
  • Apr 22, 2020 11:51am Apr 22, 2020 11:51am
1h es, if no break on resistance looking quite bearish to me. Could even see it break 27xx support perhaps, good risk-reward imo
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rennstimp
  • #298
  • Apr 23, 2020 8:11pm Apr 23, 2020 8:11pm
Quoting renNstimpy
1h es, if no break on resistance looking quite bearish to me. Could even see it break 27xx support perhaps, good risk-reward imo {image}
Bounced off the top of your channel and back down again. I'm not sure if we take some direction here or just stay rangebound awhile longer.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #299
  • Edited 7:58am Apr 24, 2020 3:59am | Edited 7:58am
Quoting EF5
{quote} Bounced off the top of your channel and back down again. I'm not sure if we take some direction here or just stay rangebound awhile longer.
not sure your instrument or time frame, but my idea is still do you think this is end of a recession? Cause if we move back into 2900s its looking like 18 repeat

Quoting EF5
{quote} Bounced off the top of your channel and back down again. I'm not sure if we take some direction here or just stay rangebound awhile longer.
ehhh closed for little gains but i guess it works, was expecting much more.

Sticking to 1y slowly dip toes into equity plan still. But still that is so fucking crazy that at this rate we're gonna be sitting only -500 from all time high, maybe ive been so bearish i cant accept the ends of things, but still doesnt seem right in my head atleast.

I guess ill stay in low risk equity at the moment, i personally hope we see another dip or alot of this precaution wasnt worth too much.
rennstimp
  • #300
  • Apr 24, 2020 9:31am Apr 24, 2020 9:31am
Quoting renNstimpy
{quote}my idea is still do you think this is end of a recession? Cause if we move back into 2900s its looking like 18 repeat
2018 was just a buy the dip situation for me. Wouldn't it be crazy if this recession pans out the same way? I don't think its going to play out like that, but I'd give that a 35% chance at this point since the rally has been so strong.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
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