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Forex is random

  • #421
  • Apr 14, 2020 11:40am Apr 14, 2020 11:40am
Quoting GEfx
If you are a bank trader and you consistently fail to follow bank procedures and processes, you get fired, regardless of your performance. If you are a retail trader and you fail to follow prudent trading practices, you will ultimately find yourself on FF threads ranting about how the retail forex market is made up of whores and prostitutes, that brokers are evil money grubbing bastards that will do anything to separate you from your money, that your failure was not your fault but instead the fault of anyone and everyone connected to the retail...
I lol'd.
  • #422
  • Apr 14, 2020 2:01pm Apr 14, 2020 2:01pm
Quoting triphop
{quote} Amen. This thread, honestly. 3/4 of the viewpoints could be decimated by 5 minutes of googling, makes my mind boggle.
As we all spend more weaks in this lockdown I'm sure the conversations will get far more bizarre .
  • #423
  • Apr 14, 2020 2:04pm Apr 14, 2020 2:04pm
Quoting diceman555
{quote} As we all spend more weaks in this lockdown I'm sure the conversations will get far more bizarre .
I hope so man. It is very good entertainment to pass the time.
  • #425
  • Apr 14, 2020 6:55pm Apr 14, 2020 6:55pm
Quoting GEfx
Quick summary of this thread so far: there seems to be 2 camps emerging, one camp has the forex market being largely random, and another camp has the forex "degree of randomness" dependent on your level of knowledge and understanding of what is going on in the market. Is that about right? The recent conversation about the ethical and moral characteristics of the forex market will likely continue to spread misinformation about the retail forex market. FOR THE RECORD, I HAVE NO INTEREST IN ANY BROKER OR ANY RETAIL FOREX ENTITY, WHICH WILL NOT PREVENT...
It would be extraordinarily difficult to prove the idea of a random or non-random market.

Both sides of the argument will have notions or biases based on their own experiences. Where the argument breaks down is when traders or observers lurking in these threads put their ideas forward without wanting to comprehend the other trader's view based on their own experiences.

This unconscious bias we often employ in an attempt to maintain the credibility of our view, derails the whole concept of this being a credible argument.
When we are discussing a Yes/No scenario (is the market random or not, can traders make a living from it, or not), creates a very delicate situation. Our viewpoints become very fragile. Any viewpoints put forward that are contrary to our own point of view end up being dismissed, as they will derail our firmly held view point on the Yes/No scenario.

This goes for those thinking the market is random and profitable and for those who think it isn't.

Of course, for traders who are making money, it is much easier and more legitimate to hold the point of view that profits can be made, because they are living, breathing examples of this possibility.

For traders (past and present), who are losing money, it is much harder and less legitimate to hold the point of view that profits cannot be made, because their experience is clearly not going to be the sum total of experiences of traders on this earth. Statistics are quoted, and outcomes inferred, but this relates to probabilities only and not hard proof that money cannot be made.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #426
  • Apr 14, 2020 7:26pm Apr 14, 2020 7:26pm
Quoting trumps
{quote} It would be extraordinarily difficult to prove the idea of a random or non-random market. Both sides of the argument will have notions or biases based on their own experiences. Where the argument breaks down is when traders or observers lurking in these threads put their ideas forward without wanting to comprehend the other trader's view based on their own experiences. This unconscious bias we often employ in an attempt to maintain the credibility of our view, derails the whole concept of this being a credible argument. When we are discussing...
There is no argument. Saying that the forex market is "random" is going against a FACT. This means that the burden of proof is on the one attempting to disprove an already established fact or law.

Let me give you a comparison of another universally accepted fact as an example. It is a well known fact that people need water to survive right? We can all agree that is a fact. So let's say someone comes along one day and says, "I believe human beings can survive without water." Let's call this person Bob.

Well, Bob is going to have to provide some pretty convincing evidence to support his claim, and if he cannot provide this evidence then the facts still remain the facts. Not the other way around.

In other words, asking someone to prove something that has already been proven is redundant.

The way the forex market moves and why it moves is clearly explained in any formal education that one could obtain from getting a university degree in finance or economics. Hell, even Google can give you the answers.

Why do people want to believe in things without any solid evidence? Well, there is probably a reason for that to them that perhaps they do not even understand because of their massive ego.
  • #427
  • Apr 14, 2020 8:07pm Apr 14, 2020 8:07pm
Quoting viptrading
{quote} There is no argument. Saying that the forex market is "random" is going against a FACT. This means that the burden of proof is on the one attempting to disprove an already established fact or law. Let me give you a comparison of another universally accepted fact as an example. It is a well known fact that people need water to survive right? We can all agree that is a fact. So let's say someone comes along one day and says, "I believe human beings can survive without water." Let's call this person Bob. Well, Bob is going to have to provide...
You need to read my 2nd last paragraph.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #428
  • Apr 14, 2020 8:20pm Apr 14, 2020 8:20pm
Quoting trumps
{quote} You need to read my 2nd last paragraph.
Why are you assuming I didn't read your post? I did read it.

So, your logic is that I only believe the forex market isn't random because I'm profitable? Well, that's not true. Even if I wasn't profitable I still wouldn't blame it on the fact that "forex is random".

That logic can apply to the ones who aren't profitable though, and I agree with you that is probably why they choose to believe in these theories rather than the facts.

I knew what the market was and how it moved even before I invested a dime into my trading account. That's the difference. You have people who trade without understanding the market and then have the idiocy to claim falsehoods about trading because it suits them. They would rather believe it isn't their fault.

This is a losers mentality, and that is why they fail.

Me on the other hand if I fail I try and understand why and improve to not make the same mistakes again. That is how you succeed.

Now, I don't know which side of the fence you sit on but judging by your post it seems you are riding it. So you are attempting to explain the logic behind two ways of thinking but they cannot both be correct in this circumstance. This isn't some philosophical debate here, there are people who accept the facts and people who don't. It's that simple.

I'm not here to argue with anyone, I just don't want a new trader to get discouraged by losers on here who failed and want to scream boogyman.

Anyways, I shouldn't really care since I guess if you are someone who gets easily discouraged you shouldn't be trading anyway.
  • #429
  • Edited 8:52pm Apr 14, 2020 8:31pm | Edited 8:52pm
Quoting trumps
It would be extraordinarily difficult to prove the idea of a random or non-random market. Both sides of the argument will have notions or biases based on their own experiences. Where the argument breaks down is when traders or observers lurking in these threads put their ideas forward without wanting to comprehend the other trader's view based on their own experiences. This unconscious bias we often employ in an attempt to maintain the credibility of our view, derails the whole concept of this being a credible argument. When we are discussing...
On forum there's very little discussion other than bulldozing each posters own biased opinions with zero intention to comprehend the other sides point of view. I appreciate your honest observation in the 2nd and 3rd para. It's rare commodity on forum. Deserve a huge thumbs up for both post and poster.

Whatever I post about randomness on here is my subjective opinion. I have no ability to prove it.

About the topic, I appreciate if anyone can post a link to academic papers on it. TQ
Know what you trade
  • #430
  • Apr 14, 2020 8:42pm Apr 14, 2020 8:42pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} On forum there's very little discussion other than bulldozing each posters own biased opinions with zero intention to comprehend the other sides point of view. I appreciate your honest observation in the 2nd para. It's rare commodity on forum. Deserve a huge thumbs up for both post and poster. Whatever I post about randomness on here is my subjective opinion. I have no ability to prove it. About the topic, I appreciate if anyone can post a link to academic papers on it. TQ
Honestly I am not trying to hurt anyone's feelings here. I can understand how this market can turn some into a pessimist but for those I say grow some balls and face the facts.

Here is a start.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_market

If you have any other questions you can PM me or ask in here I will try my best to explain the facts to my best ability.
  • #431
  • Apr 14, 2020 9:18pm Apr 14, 2020 9:18pm
Quoting viptrading
{quote} Why are you assuming I didn't read your post? I did read it. So, your logic is that I only believe the forex market isn't random because I'm profitable? Well, that's not true. Even if I wasn't profitable I still wouldn't blame it on the fact that "forex is random". That logic can apply to the ones who aren't profitable though, and I agree with you that is probably why they choose to believe in these theories rather than the facts. I knew what the market was and how it moved even before I invested a dime into my trading account. That's the...
I am not easily discouraged and I blame no one for any trading losses but me.
The whole point of my post is not to take a side in this debate. The very first line, in fact first 2 paragraphs of my original post should have pointed to this.

Of the market pair I trade, I do not see randomness, not at all. I see order. Curiously, I see market order as an opportunity to make profit.

But how do I prove this?
You are right, economics gives us much, but information alone is not enough.
We would need to overlap economic data with market activity/movement over a significant period of time (years), and see a statistically significant correlation that rules out chance.

Without this or a similar study, we are assuming a predictable correlation between economic data and market movement.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #432
  • Apr 14, 2020 9:38pm Apr 14, 2020 9:38pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} On forum there's very little discussion other than bulldozing each posters own biased opinions with zero intention to comprehend the other sides point of view. I appreciate your honest observation in the 2nd and 3rd para. It's rare commodity on forum. Deserve a huge thumbs up for both post and poster. Whatever I post about randomness on here is my subjective opinion. I have no ability to prove it. About the topic, I appreciate if anyone can post a link to academic papers on it. TQ
Thanks Mr William. I share your sentiments.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #433
  • Apr 14, 2020 9:39pm Apr 14, 2020 9:39pm
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} yes extremes are never good. possible, yes, but risky... therefore, it can also be impossible. the beginning and the end are the same point.. that's why these discussions are pointLESS lol
I agree.
Many discussions in life are pointless except for the stimulation discussion brings.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #434
  • Apr 14, 2020 10:39pm Apr 14, 2020 10:39pm
Quoting trumps
{quote} It would be extraordinarily difficult to prove the idea of a random or non-random market.
We haven't been discussing proof of non-randomness or randomness in the forex. In fact, we seem far away from getting to that point. Let me catch you up. There are 2 topics being discussed here: is the market random, and is retail forex a place to make money or an industry run by whores and prostitutes. The randon/not random thing was progressing very nicely, when the retail forex whore prostitute thing sprang up. With that in mind, I'm unsure how your post contributes to either discussion, but mainly, I think it's a lot of uncoordinated mumbo jumbo BS. But, that might just be my unconscience bias speaking.
  • #435
  • Apr 14, 2020 10:43pm Apr 14, 2020 10:43pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} We haven't been discussing proof of non-randomness or randomness in the forex. In fact, we seem far away from getting to that point. Let me catch you up. There are 2 topics being discussed here: is the market random, and is retail forex a place to make money or an industry run by whores and prostitutes. The randon/not random thing was progressing very nicely, when the retail forex whore prostitute thing sprang up. With that in mind, I'm unsure how your post contributes to either discussion, but mainly, I think it's a lot of uncoordinated...
It has turned into a feel good session for losers.

Why not suck it up and learn why your losing instead of trying to make yourself feel better lmao.

I give up man. Honestly I was trying to help but there's no helping some people.
  • #436
  • Edited 11:53pm Apr 14, 2020 11:31pm | Edited 11:53pm
Quoting smikester
{quote} Mingary. I'm still waiting for a reply to my question. That was where you left the debate. You either don't know, or don't want to answer the question because it was long and predictable and tradeable move. Not random.
I have already responded ==> https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post12859949

I agree. Not totally random but generated by constant self feedback loops triggered by a series of hard economic facts.
But it's a lot more interesting than that: It became a text book exemple of the "less than zero sum game". For the very reason that it became known as a "long and predictable and tradeable move" the end was - as I said: "an epic debacle of a massive culling of the retail forex carry trade herd"
  • #437
  • Edited 12:23am Apr 15, 2020 12:08am | Edited 12:23am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} We haven't been discussing proof of non-randomness or randomness in the forex. In fact, we seem far factual away from getting to that point. Let me catch you up. There are 2 topics being discussed here: is the market random, and is retail forex a place to make money or an industry run by whores and prostitutes. The randon/not random thing was progressing very nicely, when the retail forex whore prostitute thing sprang up. With that in mind, I'm unsure how your post contributes to either discussion, but mainly, I think it's a lot of uncoordinated...
It is not my fault the discussion on this thread has moved away from the intended discussion.
I'm not interested in discussing if forex is run by whores and prostitutes.
One of the questions or topics being discussed here is indeed, is the market random?

With that in mind, how is my post mumbo jumbo? How do I not contribute to the discussion?

My post is opening the door of opportunity for contributors in here to post objective evidence to support their views. This would fast track us towards a factual resolution of the original question or observation posted by the thread starter.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #438
  • Apr 15, 2020 12:16am Apr 15, 2020 12:16am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} We haven't been discussing proof of non-randomness or randomness in the forex. In fact, we seem far away from getting to that point. Let me catch you up. There are 2 topics being discussed here: is the market random, and is retail forex a place to make money or an industry run by whores and prostitutes. The randon/not random thing was progressing very nicely, when the retail forex whore prostitute thing sprang up. With that in mind, I'm unsure how your post contributes to either discussion, but mainly, I think it's a lot of uncoordinated...
Hey GEfx, this study by Stanford University do provide material evidence about the predictability of forex market hence non-randomness.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...2#post12867532
Know what you trade
  • #439
  • Edited 1:39am Apr 15, 2020 1:28am | Edited 1:39am
Quoting GEfx
Quick summary of this thread so far: there seems to be 2 camps emerging, one camp has the forex market being largely random, and another camp has the forex "degree of randomness" dependent on your level of knowledge and understanding of what is going on in the market. Is that about right? The recent conversation about the ethical and moral characteristics of the forex market will likely continue to spread misinformation about the retail forex market. FOR THE RECORD, I HAVE NO INTEREST IN ANY BROKER OR ANY RETAIL FOREX ENTITY, WHICH WILL NOT PREVENT...
Honestly, I don't know what point I should tackle first. But something needs to be said. First, about making a purse out of a sow's ear (i.e. opening forex trading to the public)

In the 1990's new legislation opened the doors for online forex brokers.
The retail forex bucket shop was born.

Retail forex -in its current form- is not a real market.

In retail forex, traders do not trade with the banks or in the REAL 5 trillion a day market, but rather the retail market is an "appendage" (for lack of a better word for online retail forex brokers)
The ENTIRE currency market is around 5 trillion a day. Retail forex only accounts for 5 % of that amount per day (200 billion on a good day and mostly in the majors) There are no retail forex brokers that can provide even a fraction of that 200 billion in liquidity! Retail forex is shallow. In the best case scenario, the Retail forex enthusiast is subject to the brokers liquidity providers and what deals they can make with them.

Essentially, Retail Forex is a "pseudo market."

If you want to participate in a real market then trade stocks or/and commodities, there you will actively participate 100 % in "demanding the supply and supplying the demand" and be a contributor - albeit very small - to the market economy.
  • #440
  • Apr 15, 2020 2:34am Apr 15, 2020 2:34am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} I have already responded ==> https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post12859949 I agree. Not totally random but generated by constant self feedback loops triggered by a series of hard economic facts. But it's a lot more interesting than that: It became a text book exemple of the "less than zero sum game". For the very reason that it became known as a "long and predictable and tradeable move" the end was - as I said: "an epic debacle of a massive culling of the retail forex carry trade herd"
Sounds like you may be on the road to recovery.
Gone to a better place
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