- #305
- Apr 13, 2020 11:52am Apr 13, 2020 11:52am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2014 | 3,922 Posts
there is always, always another trade!!
- #306
- Apr 13, 2020 1:40pm Apr 13, 2020 1:40pm
- Joined May 2010 | Status: Straight line Fest | 3,194 Posts
- #307
- Apr 13, 2020 1:45pm Apr 13, 2020 1:45pm
- Joined May 2010 | Status: Straight line Fest | 3,194 Posts
- #309
- Apr 13, 2020 2:01pm Apr 13, 2020 2:01pm
- Joined May 2010 | Status: Straight line Fest | 3,194 Posts
- #311
- Apr 13, 2020 3:06pm Apr 13, 2020 3:06pm
- Joined May 2010 | Status: Straight line Fest | 3,194 Posts
- #312
- Edited 4:22pm Apr 13, 2020 4:07pm | Edited 4:22pm
- Joined Jan 2020 | Status: Membership revoke | 2,332 Posts
Know what you trade
- #313
- Apr 13, 2020 4:16pm Apr 13, 2020 4:16pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,207 Posts | Online Now
{quote} I agree with this 100%. No matter what the TE shows, ie. account size, win rate, drawdown, long consistent performance, whatever... How a trader handles himself in live market shows his skill. Only in live market can we know exactly how good a trader is, how much he knows and ofc how much he doesn't. All aspects of trading as we all know it will be tested in live market trading. Better still if the trader shows with full transparency the tools he use. This encroaches into proprietary issues. Don't be mistaken. A very successful trader shown...
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
- #314
- Apr 13, 2020 4:24pm Apr 13, 2020 4:24pm
- Joined Jan 2020 | Status: Membership revoke | 2,332 Posts
{quote} Too bad Old JetTrader is in prison... He was itching to show the world his trading prowess !
Anyone seen it yet?
Wait another 100 yrs, I guess.
Know what you trade
- #317
- Apr 13, 2020 5:42pm Apr 13, 2020 5:42pm
- Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Hobby Trader | 4,477 Posts
I'm still waiting for someone from the supply and demand camp to explain the chart that I posted. How the stop and reverse was orchestrated with such precision. I'm open to listening to anyone's view on how that gap was closed by a natural breathing market. {image}
Before I do though I think it's important to be able to objectively describe objectively a price chart without any assumptions. This is difficult for many and I'll submit it is why most are not able to trade profitably because they are stuck in their beliefs about why price did something rather than just accept that it did and move on.
I'm using a weekly chart instead of the daily chart because the amount of data on the daily is a bit overwhelming. Also the price action is easier to see and explain.
I'm also not endorsing ANY supply/demand thread or product. I'm only approaching this from the concepts of supply and demand where supply is an over-abundance of product and it is perceived as being too expensive so it gets sold. Demand is a lack of product and it is perceived as. being too cheap so it is bought. I don't care about zones or anything else that has been seen here a FF or on Sam Seiden's website or anywhere else. Supply and demand CAN clearly be seen on a price chart as I will show here and as I have stated in my previous posts on this thread.
This first chart is just for overall context. It shows what I'm calling a supply shelf. This is just and area where sellers have consistently taken a stand and kept price from moving up. Theres a large supply shelf and a smaller supply shelf which will be explained in the next chart. It can clearly be seen that price eventually takes out the small supply shelf followed by the large supply shelf. The only reason this happens is because buyers decided that price was too cheap so they bought it and took out the sellers. So at that time the supply shelf now becomes demand. It's on the chart. It's undeniable. Objectively descriptive. No assumptions. It happened. What one cannot say is that when price comes back to the now demand shelf that it will continue to be percieved by traders in that way. We have to wait and see how price reacts to make this determination.
Now we can zoom in on the price action where price lifted or where the buyers began buying it on the left. As a point of interest this a very low low in history of the EU. It's not the lowest but it's interesting to note.
Going back to the first chart for a second we can see that as price has came down on the right side of the chart (this is evidence of selling or supply) it initially reacts to the previously broken supply now demand shelf to the upside suggesting the presence of interested buyers or that there was some demand. But then it eventually goes through the larger supply/demand shelf to the downside indicating that any demand that was there has been taken out. But this is the interesting part. Notice the size of the bars at the far right. They're huge. This corresponds to what is happening in the overall market. Initially price touches the area where price took out the smaller supply shelf. This is the same as the larger shelf where supply was taken out by demand. This is exactly where traders bought it again indicating demand. But price bounces off the larger now supply shelf again and moves down a bit lower below the smaller shelf. The green arrows point to bullish gap bars. These bars are evidence of demand. Until price breaks below them there is still evidence of demand.
The 4 gap bars is evidence of strong demand and explains why price bounced from here on the right. Currently price is caught between an area of supply and an area of demand.
Finally when one describes an are as supply or as demand it is not too suggest that that area will react as such. We can't know until it happens. This is the mistake so-called supply/demand zone traders make.
Sorry for the long explanation but I think it was needed.
- #320
- Apr 13, 2020 6:05pm Apr 13, 2020 6:05pm
- Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Hobby Trader | 4,477 Posts
Something I'm looking at and that also illustrates some of the concepts I've been describing. Please understand that I don't normally label supply and demand areas at all. I'm doing it here for the purpose of what this thread has become a debated about. I instinctively recognize supply and demand and really don't usually think about it too much.
So here a supply shelf can be seen. This is where sellers took it down. Demand came in with those 2 large bullish gap bars that took out the supply shelf which can now be called a demand shelf for now. It is demand because buyers took it up. Price has now come back to the previously supply shelf and is testing it. So far demand is holding. It doesn't mean that it will continue. It is possible that price could go down to the "origin" of demand which is the lower bullish gap bar. Personally I like this area for a potential buy because it offers a very good stop. This is just my take though.
So here a supply shelf can be seen. This is where sellers took it down. Demand came in with those 2 large bullish gap bars that took out the supply shelf which can now be called a demand shelf for now. It is demand because buyers took it up. Price has now come back to the previously supply shelf and is testing it. So far demand is holding. It doesn't mean that it will continue. It is possible that price could go down to the "origin" of demand which is the lower bullish gap bar. Personally I like this area for a potential buy because it offers a very good stop. This is just my take though.