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Sam Seiden Goes DOWN

  • #241
  • Apr 12, 2020 8:50pm Apr 12, 2020 8:50pm
Winston Reed,
Thank you for your posts, specifically #224, #227, and #238. I will thoroughly study your explanations of Supply and Demand and try to incorporate them into my Trading strategy.

Beardby,
Thank you for your post (#184). I completely agree. Trading is very hard, it definitely isn't for everyone. It's probably not for me but I don't want to give up just yet.

Erebus,
Thank you for your post (#189). I completely agree with you. Supply and Demand does work.....sometimes. Price Action does work.....some of the time. EA's do work.....some of the time. Unfortunately no system works all of the time---Goldman Sacs WON'T allow it (LOL!). Unfortunately, every system has its day, every system works sometimes.....just not all of the time. Just when I think I found a system that works, BAM, it fails miserably the following week.

I've made a small fortune Trading FOREX.....the problem is I started with a LARGE fortune. FOREX will do that to you.

Why do we trade FOREX??? I guess we like the abuse...
  • #242
  • Apr 12, 2020 8:54pm Apr 12, 2020 8:54pm
Quoting BWilliam
Few hours ago opec + Russia + other oil opn agreed to cut global oil production by 10mbpd or 10% of global supply. Market reaction in Tokyo market high 23.83. Although global supply was cut by 10% the price of oil is still stuck in 23-25 range with prevailing bearish bias. This is a real time market example that price moves according to perceive VALUE and not s/d. https://time.com/5819795/opec-barrel-cut-coronavirus/
The market agreeing on a value for something is what creates areas of supply and demand. In this case the commodity OIL is creating an area of support on the chart, due to an agreed value.

Learn how to combine your fundamental analysis and read it on your chart for entries, but even then there is still more to it than that.
  • #243
  • Apr 12, 2020 9:17pm Apr 12, 2020 9:17pm
Quoting YYZ
{quote} copi88 Will give you better answer then me . as little retail trader I do not care what is value of EUR or AUD...that is job of market makers. my job is to follow market makers at best I can....How to follow market makers is million dollar question for most. coppi88 and many others use market profile. Peter Steidlmayer, inventor of market profile, said: price goes up to shut off buying and price goes down to shut off selling.
Market makers?? In Forex??

Who are those?
  • #244
  • Apr 12, 2020 9:29pm Apr 12, 2020 9:29pm
Quoting YYZ
{quote} Market Makers, those who move price, interpret information then decide where is supply and demand then move price accordingly. Anyone's else interpretation and opinion is irrelevant.
That's not how it works. Market makers is a real term for real people that serve a real purpose but they do not have that much power lol.
  • #245
  • Apr 12, 2020 9:32pm Apr 12, 2020 9:32pm
Quoting YYZ
{quote} Market Makers, those who move price, interpret information then decide where is supply and demand then move price accordingly. Anyone's else interpretation and opinion is irrelevant.
So supply and demand is not about economical and political factors around the globe constantly changing 24/7... But it is about some very specific people (which you haven't told me who those are yet)... who decide where is supply and where is demand?? This very few people can move trillions of dollars in a very short period of time.

Am I getting it right?
  • #246
  • Apr 12, 2020 9:34pm Apr 12, 2020 9:34pm
Quoting pooh123
I tried Sam Seiden method years ago and the result left me wondering how could anyone succeed with that way of trading. I also met someone online who told me that he was studying Supply and Demand zone trading and he almost collapsed after placing a dozen trades- all losers. Now it's all clear. Sam Seiden is probably the biggest scammer in trading education of all time. He dwarfs anyone exposed at Forexfactory. P.S. I don't rule out the possibility that someone could be successful trading supply/demand zone with proper money management. In that...
Probably both. And Supply and demand does work. but its better to incorporate other things with it like Trendlines and price action.
  • #247
  • Apr 12, 2020 10:27pm Apr 12, 2020 10:27pm
Quoting GMD
{quote} Market makers?? In Forex?? Who are those?
In currency exchange:
Most foreign exchange trading firms are market makers and so are many banks. The market maker both sells to and also buys from its clients and is compensated by means of price differentials for the service of providing liquidity, reducing transaction costs and facilitating trade.

So what does a market maker do?
The name is largely self-explanatory. A market maker quotes two-way prices in a certain currency pair, thereby making a market. A Forex market maker essentially does three things:

  1. Sets bid and offer prices within a certain currency pair.
  2. Commits to accepting deals at these prices within certain constraints.
  3. Takes the resulting exposure on to their own book.

  • #248
  • Apr 13, 2020 12:09am Apr 13, 2020 12:09am
Couple of questions, and to be honest I really couldn't answer them.
Perhaps someone can.

Data feed that we receive on our individual MT4 terminal.

My first question, would that data feed come direct from our broker? Or have they taken that feed in from somewhere else?
If the feed is broker driven, and they set bid/ask based on supply and demand, how can they all come up with the same price within a nano pip of each other.
If so then if the broker takes exposure against our trades, then shouldn't we see a differing price between different brokers, the chances that two have identical exposure would be more than just a coincidence.

Second question. If the broker passes the data feed to us from the market, then who is the market and how is that market put together?
Asking the top tier HSBC, JP, Barclays etc to agree on a price based on supply and demand would require major competitors to agree on a price based around their own individual supply and demand trading models.

I just don't think they could agree on a price.

Two shops in a street couldn't agree the price on a carton of milk

The data feed demonstrates an extraordinary ability to completely bypass support and resistance, pivots etc, stopping sometimes and not others but what it will do with absolute precision is to visit preset targets, stop a nano pip from preset targets, set bull and bear traps and this is shown time and again within 'market structure'. I just don't think this would happen with the same accuracy if supply and demand controlled price based on liquidity providers.

I cannot see past the data feed being anything other than an Algorithm designed to bring money into a marketplace and the whole purpose of that Algo is to remove money from retail,smaller banks, institutions, hedge funds...the ultimate winner being the big central 'liquidity providers'....the Cabal.
Without a doubt the Algo reacts to news, this would give the impression of being a 'live' market but in reality, no, it's still just an Algo.

Before i get shot down in flames, no issues, each are welcome to their own opinion, can someone explain the pic I have attached to this post.
It shows a 3 year gap, where price takes out the gap, exactly to the pip..exactly, then reverses away for a few hundred pips, taking out another preset target.
If possible would someone explain the process as to how a natural market based on supply and demand could target and control that reversal....or was it just a coincidence.

M.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Random or not Random!.png Size: 49 KB
  • #249
  • Apr 13, 2020 1:47am Apr 13, 2020 1:47am
Quoting YYZ
{quote} Ok. How it works? once I enter the trade I control exit . everything between my entry and exit is in control of market makers, those who move the price.
I don't understand your question. Market makers do not control the movement of price. Read up on what a market maker is. A market maker is no different than someone who works at an exchange and quotes you a rate for a certain currency.

They only control the price they are willing to buy or sell for. They do not control if it will go up or down. The market controls that, the market participants control that. Investors, retail traders, all the money that moves the market together is what controls price.

As a speculator it is your job to try and predict where the price will go before it happens, the market maker has nothing to do with your job other than they sell you the product.

Focus on what you can control, and do not worry about what you can't.
  • #250
  • Apr 13, 2020 1:55am Apr 13, 2020 1:55am
Quoting cisco92111
{quote} Probably both. And Supply and demand does work. but its better to incorporate other things with it like Trendlines and price action.
Yea I was just think it is based on supply and demand, for sure.
  • #251
  • Apr 13, 2020 2:36am Apr 13, 2020 2:36am
Quoting YYZ
{quote} that is OK. we disagree totally on this subject.
No. We do not "disagree". You just don't understand how the market works clearly.
  • #252
  • Apr 13, 2020 2:37am Apr 13, 2020 2:37am
Quoting YYZ
{quote} Anyone who can move price. Certainly is not retail trader.
Price moves due to all participants including retail. It isn't one person who moves price 99% of the time. Of course there are exceptions but for the most part it is a collective. That is what makes it so hard to predict before moves happen.
  • #253
  • Apr 13, 2020 4:33am Apr 13, 2020 4:33am
Quoting YYZ
{quote} Right, it is not one person nor I said that. Please look COT Report for market makers/participants. they are moving price, make decisions, interpret information relevant to them... I am just retail trader who has no influence on price...
Just a shame it comes out on Friday based on Tuesdays data ready to be used on Monday just before fresh data is released once again on Tuesday.
If the COT did influence the market, it’s already factored in long before retail get to see it.
Once again smoke and mirrors.
  • #254
  • Apr 13, 2020 5:26am Apr 13, 2020 5:26am
Quoting BWilliam
Few hours ago opec + Russia + other opn agreed to cut global oil production by 10mbpd or 10% of global supply. Market reaction in Tokyo market high 24.42. Although global supply was cut by 10% the price of oil is still stuck in 23-25 range with prevailing bearish bias. This is a real time market example that price moves according to perceive VALUE and not s/d. https://time.com/5819795/opec-barrel-cut-coronavirus/
It's still Supply & Demand. To stop prices falling lower due to lower demand, the producers can only control the Supply to hold prices or raise them.
Simple economics.

Attached Image
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #255
  • Apr 13, 2020 5:29am Apr 13, 2020 5:29am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} It's still Supply & Demand. To stop prices falling lower due to lower demand, the producers can only control the Supply to hold prices or raise them. Simple economics.
easy peasy...

supply and demand is not rocket science as some folks here have made it out to be
Fred
  • #256
  • Apr 13, 2020 5:37am Apr 13, 2020 5:37am
LOL people here still defending his system. Run from these people..
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #257
  • Apr 13, 2020 5:54am Apr 13, 2020 5:54am
Quoting bloodpoodle
LOL people here still defending his system. Run from these people..
Not defending Sam Seiden, Economic Law existed before OTA.
Not defending fraudulent practices either.

So if something does not make sense to you , you run away from it ?
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #258
  • Apr 13, 2020 6:07am Apr 13, 2020 6:07am
In the context of a Forex chart I think supply and demand is better thought of as offers and bids.
When excessive bidding enters the market at a certain price, the price rises (just like it does in
any auction). Apply the opposite principle for offers. This activity creates a readily identifiable
footprint (zones) in historic price.

Day-traders on leverage cannot create these price zones but they can read PA once price returns to
the zones. If the PA then prints in accordance with their expectations they can take an educated,
risk-based trade that price will move in the profitable direction.

Seiden's methodology for taking trades is woefully lacking in my opinion but I do think he brought
something to the table in terms of price analysis, even if his terminology is incorrect. No one has all
the answers. Learning to trade is a very solitary pursuit.
  • #259
  • Apr 13, 2020 6:13am Apr 13, 2020 6:13am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} It's still Supply & Demand. To stop prices falling lower due to lower demand, the producers can only control the Supply to hold prices or raise them. Simple economics. {image}
Since you persist with economic supply and demand metrics exist on a forex brokers tick data chart, you win the argument.
I admit that's beyond me.

Quoting simond2002
Seiden's methodology for taking trades is woefully lacking in my opinion but I do think he brought something to the table in terms of price analysis, even if his terminology is incorrect. No one has all the answers. Learning to trade is a very solitary pursuit.
Finally there's some sanity.
Know what you trade
  • #260
  • Apr 13, 2020 6:16am Apr 13, 2020 6:16am
Quoting simond2002
Seiden's methodology for taking trades is woefully lacking in my opinion but I do think he brought something to the table in terms of price analysis, even if his terminology is incorrect. No one has all the answers. Learning to trade is a very solitary pursuit.
Agreed. You take what is useful and adapt to your own strategy and understanding of market mechanics.
Screentime is an arduous and painful experience for many and seek solutions via paid courses and sometimes expose themselves to charlatans.
It never gets easier, you just get better
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