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Sam Seiden Goes DOWN

  • #221
  • Edited 11:48am Apr 12, 2020 11:37am | Edited 11:48am
Quoting GMD
{quote} To sell a "trading system" you need to get a patent on USA Gov.. apparently they faked it... This way they convinced clients that if they had a patent for a "working system" the thing must be real... Well.. apparently it wasn't...
I am not picking on you, but it is you who does not read articles or the FTC report properly.......... DUH

Anyone can get a patent for virtually anything from the US Patent Office, they are only registration clerks, they do not check the application for patent, if it is legit or not, only the trade marks, product names, etc. You pay a Fee, around $500 and you get a patent licence, simple.
-You don't need to get a patent from the USA Gov. to "sell a trading system"

The fraud committed was using this "US patent licence" as a selling tool to convince punters that the product was "authorised & approved" when it clearly wasn't. Mis-Selling is a Fraud offence. - regardless of the merits of the product. Of course theye backed it up with probably falsified profit account statements

I am not defending Sam Seiden or OTA or S&D trading etc. at all. I have no interst to debate the merits or demerits of S&D trading.

I would just like you to for once please get the facts straight and to not "shoot from the hip".

Knowledge is never useless, it always pays off to know as much as you can about a business.
Don't write things off just because it ddn't work for you or you didn't understand it.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #222
  • Apr 12, 2020 12:09pm Apr 12, 2020 12:09pm
An 8000+ page lawsuit? Wow. Is this ultimately a criminal lawsuit? In the UK with these kind of figures - 370 million - gained
by selling product on the basis of "false or unfounded earnings" the case would likely be heard in the criminal court. In other words,
if the defendants were found guilty they would face the very real possibility of jail time.

I thought Seiden's early video presentations gave some good food for thought. For him to go from that to ripping off old people (if
this is what the court deems) is really sad. Buyer beware I suppose.
  • #223
  • Apr 12, 2020 12:13pm Apr 12, 2020 12:13pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Winston If you wish to have a go at me, that's fine but please have the decently of referring to me as Rick in what you call a pitiful thread. I was referring to the standard definitions of supply and demand, support and resistance that are quote in most trading manuals, and sold in training courses around the world. My statement was simply - I have coded most versions of these text book examples of these actions, the standard definitions don't work. Now if you have found a way to trade and be profitable using these actions by FEELINGS...
So there you have it: "standard definitions of supply and demand, support and resistance that are quote in most trading manuals, and sold in training courses around the world". A huge blanket statement full of a tremendous amount of assumptions. The most basic assumption "standard definitions". I submit there are no standard definitions and that you could go from one "guru" to the next, from one forum to the other and from one on-line "trading academy" to to another and find significant variations in any of these "standard definitions".

It's also interesting that you assume I'm "having a go at you".

I trade a particular way that incorporates some aspect of some of the dismissed and demonized concepts in this, yes pitiful excuse of a thread which by the way is not Rick's thread but he feels I'm having a go at him anyway. Assumption: arrogance.

I have a thread here that in some ways demonstrates my particular way of trading and I have no desire to prove to anyone that it works for ME. It uses element of s/d, s/r and absolutely the most important part for me...price action. I have posted some live trades but it is not a journal of my trading. I don't care to explain here how I trade but the thread does. But to be sure I could care less if anyone here looks at it.

The demonization and/or dismissing of mentioned concepts here only illustrates the opinions of those here. No one here can prove without a doubt that said concepts "don't work". If they don't work they don't work for YOU. This could be for a variety of reasons: Misunderstanding, improper application, assumptions about what the concepts lead the trader to believe they may or may not do, and probably many other reasons.

I've been in several Skype rooms and chats with "traders"...a genuine waste of time.
  • #224
  • Apr 12, 2020 12:54pm Apr 12, 2020 12:54pm
I can't help poke holes in many of the assumptions in this thread. One is the idea that supply and demand can't be seen on a price chart which is absolutely bunk or that there isn't some value in understanding where s/d exists.

Anytime price goes down there was a perception for that time that price was too expensive and therefore it was sold. Anytime price goes up there was a perception that price was too cheap and therefore it was bought.

In the chart below the red rectangle denotes an area where price sold off fairly dramatically. It cannot be disputed that this was supply in action. Someone or some people percieved for this time that price was too expensive and sold it.

Price comes back to this same area and again it sold off but this is where many get into trouble. They assume that this so-called "supply zone" has a high probability of behaving in the same way and that price will surely sell off again. This assumption is what leads many to decide that s/d is invalid. What is invalid is their assumption. Let's say that price blew through this area to the upside. This would be a demonstration of a perception that someone or some people felt that this was a good price to buy and it would only demonstrate a change in the s/d dynamic not that s/d doesn't work.

In this particular example price does sell off again. The arrows signify examples of price action that might lead a s/d trader to decide that supply was in fact still in control and thus sell this area again in this particular and specific instance. The orange arrow points to a bullish outside engulfing bar that leads to price moving into the supply area and is evidence that buyers brought it back to that area. The next bar is a "so-called" bearish pin bar or tail and it shows that sellers are present. The next bar denoted by the blue arrow is a wide range bearish gap bar that takes out the previous bullish outside engulfing bar and is evidence of sellers. Everything I've said so far is completely objective because all I've done is describe the price action. The only assumption I'm going to now make is that a pullback into the bearish WRB is a reasonable opportunity to sell. It is the case here but it will not always be the case in Similar instances. This is why traders use money management to give them an edge even when their completely objective analysis fails when they finally make that assumption that price is going in the direction they assume based on said analysis.

I don't trade in this way but I do use the objective concepts I spoke about here. Yes objective!

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  • #225
  • Edited 1:23pm Apr 12, 2020 1:01pm | Edited 1:23pm
Quoting simond2002
An 8000+ page lawsuit? Wow. Is this ultimately a criminal lawsuit? In the UK with these kind of figures - 370 million - gained by selling product on the basis of "false or unfounded earnings" the case would likely be heard in the criminal court. In other words, if the defendants were found guilty they would face the very real possibility of jail time. I thought Seiden's early video presentations gave some good food for thought. For him to go from that to ripping off old people (if this is what the court deems) is really sad. Buyer beware I suppose....
Greed, maybe from higher up in the company, Eyal Sachar , a known fraudster who has committed fraud in Israel.

It was a primarily a sales organisation, marketing & targeting, to generate maximum profit from unwitting, often gullible, often elderly, investors entering the market the first time.
The product or knowledge was obtained from Sam Seiden and vigorously marketed by Eyar Shachar, OTA & it's franchisees'
Obtaining a US patent was a clever ruse to falsely authenticate the trading methods to the gullible.

The FTC alleges that OTA uses false or unfounded earnings claims to sell “training programs” costing as much as $50,000.
According to the FTC, OTA misrepresents that it has a patented “strategy” that anyone can use to generate substantial income from trading in the financial markets.

FTC is pursuing this as a civil fraud case, with possibly heavy fines and revoking their FTC license. I doubt this will go to a criminal case, probably as most clients will have signed paperwork that will have disclaimers attached.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #226
  • Apr 12, 2020 1:28pm Apr 12, 2020 1:28pm
Recent review on FPA website:

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It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #227
  • Apr 12, 2020 1:33pm Apr 12, 2020 1:33pm
Some more very objective analysis and why I reject much of what is being pushed as invalid concepts in this thread.

Being completely objective I will describe without assuming.

First there is a diagonal consolidation at left and then a sudden plummet of price with a large bearish gap bar. If price falls then that is evidence of supply. This is not an assumption. Therefore this area becomes a historical area where supply previously existed but it doesn't mean that supply or that sellers will prevail again when and if price comes back to this area. We won't know what will happen until price gets there and shows us.

Price does come back and sellers do sell it here again. Not only is this supply but it is resistance. This area resisted price going above it. Objective and factual. No assumptions so far. I'm not going to describe the specific price action in this area but it did support selling and is similar to the price action in the previous post.

The third time that price comes back to the supply/resistance area it does so with 2 WRB bullish bars. Yet is does not continue but instead consolidates or ranges around the supply/resistance area.

Later price blows through the supply/resistance with 3 increasingly larger bullish gap bars signifying a change in supply/demand dynamic. Buyers decided this area was cheap and bought it. Now I'll assume and say that the area where price convincingly demonstrated a change in the s/d dynamic is a reasonable area to buy.

So here again concepts of supply and demand and support and resistance are clearly articulated objectively. They are valid no matter what ridiculousness is puked out in this thread.


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  • #228
  • Apr 12, 2020 1:49pm Apr 12, 2020 1:49pm
Quoting Winston Reed
They are valid no matter what ridiculousness is puked out in this thread. {image}
People should realise that a lot of screen time is necessary to understand any methodology. It is not always observe A, then B and do C.

There is also, having the patience, the discipline and learning when things are likely to fail, and you don't get that knowledge without the necessary screentime.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #229
  • Apr 12, 2020 2:10pm Apr 12, 2020 2:10pm
Quoting Winston Reed
Some more very objective analysis and why I reject much of what is being pushed as invalid concepts in this thread. Being completely objective I will describe without assuming. First there is a diagonal consolidation at left and then a sudden plummet of price with a large bearish gap bar. If price falls then that is evidence of supply. This is not an assumption. Therefore this area becomes a historical area where supply previously existed but it doesn't mean that supply or that sellers will prevail again when and if price comes back to this area....
10 traders get 10 different discretionary interpretation and application. Fact.
Know what you trade
  • #230
  • Apr 12, 2020 2:21pm Apr 12, 2020 2:21pm
Quoting Winston Reed
Some more very objective analysis and why I reject much of what is being pushed as invalid concepts in this thread. Being completely objective I will describe without assuming. First there is a diagonal consolidation at left and then a sudden plummet of price with a large bearish gap bar. If price falls then that is evidence of supply. This is not an assumption. Therefore this area becomes a historical area where supply previously existed but it doesn't mean that supply or that sellers will prevail again when and if price comes back to this area....
All one needs to do to identify Institutional Supply or Demand zones is too look for balance areas from which there is a fast money move away. By fast money I mean a rapid movement of price away from the balance area. Rapid moves like this are caused by market makers withdrawing liquidity and by stops being run causing sellers to become buyers and adding fuel to the up move.
For this to happen there has to have been institutional activity for the market makers to identify price toxicity and withdraw their liquidity.

Draw a market profile through the balance area and the POC of the balance area will be the institutional average price they bought at. Once they have finished their accumulation they will then advice their clients to start buying above the breakout of the balance area. This is called the 'buy at price'.
Institutions will look to make 3:1 on their average price and will therefore target the red box as their take profit area.

When price comes back down draw the demand zone from the start of the volume ledge of the profile area.

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The problem with these areas and why they dont work every time is the institutions will only start to re-accumulate in those areas if they identify that they have value to do so. i.e. they either value the currency with their models to be trading at a discount or a premium. They will never buy or sell unless they have value otherwise they are paying retail prices instead of wholesale and will never be able to make a profit when they offload their stock.

Here is the chart again but this time with a value measure for the AUDUSD. This line is one that will be used in their models to value the currency. As you can see when price comes back down to test the area there is a large deviation between the value line and the currency and therefore this zone will hold.

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Now look at this commercial sell zone.You can see why they where accumulating it for a short with value well below the market and therefore AUDUSD is overpriced.
Same technical analysis same area drawn from the balance area. You can see there is a small reaction (red arrow) when it hits the zone however there is no short value for the institutions to start selling. In fact value is still aggressively bid and price blows through the zone.

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Technical analysis will only get one so far. If one does not know the value of what you are buying for selling how do you expect to hope to sell it in the future for a profit.

Oh they made their target on that campaign too.

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Boxing clever since 76.
  • #231
  • Apr 12, 2020 2:22pm Apr 12, 2020 2:22pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} 10 traders get 10 different discretionary interpretation and application. Fact.
So possibly, here you have 9 people who didn't understand the methodology.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #232
  • Edited 10:08pm Apr 12, 2020 2:34pm | Edited 10:08pm
Quoting copi88
The problem with these areas and why they dont work every time is the institutions will only start to re-accumulate in those areas if they identify that they have value to do so. i.e. they either value the currency with their models to be trading at a discount or a premium. They will never buy or sell unless they have value otherwise they are paying retail prices instead of wholesale and will never be able to make a profit when they offload their stock.
This is the most important line written on any forum.
Especially the underlined section.

Simple concept.

Buy when the asset is undervalued or underpriced or at discount.

Sell when the asset is overvalued or overpriced or at premium.

That's basic economics.

TA, FA, QA or whatever method, the strategy must objectively track and measure VALUE in real time market, else it's useless.

Quoting copi88
Technical analysis will only get one so far. If one does not know the value of what you are buying for selling how do you expect to hope to sell it in the future for a profit. Oh they made their target on that campaign too. {image}
Well said, copi !

It all comes down to the current value of the asset denoted by price.

If the market perceive the asset as undervalued, buyers step in to buy vv.

There is no such thing as supply demand zones or support resistance level [derived from brokers tick data] and the ridiculous candle by candle price action.
(Supply or demand is a measure of transaction activity as a result of perceived value.)

If market perceives higher value at so-called supply zone or resistance level [on the chart], buyers will BUY!

If market perceives lower value at so-called demand zones or support level [on the chart], sellers will SELL!

Quoting copi88
Here is the chart again but this time with a value measure for the AUDUSD. This line is one that will be used in their models to value the currency. As you can see when price comes back down to test the area there is a large deviation between the value line and the currency and therefore this zone will hold.
Copi, good example of perceived VALUE.
Know what you trade
  • #233
  • Apr 12, 2020 2:57pm Apr 12, 2020 2:57pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} This is the most important line written on any forum. Especially the underlined section. Simple concept. Buy when the asset is undervalued or underpriced or at discount. Sell when the asset is overvalued or overpriced or at premium. That's basic economics. TA, FA, QA or whatever method, the strategy must objectively track and measure VALUE in real time market, else it's useless. {quote} Well said, copi ! It all comes down to the current value of the asset denoted by price. If the market perceive the asset as undervalued, buyers step in to...
This is a false statement. My previous posts prove it. "There is no such thing as supply demand zones or support resistance level and the ridiculous candle by candle price action."

If you don't understand the concept of supply and demand and what they mean on a chart your trading career is doomed.
If you don't understand the concept of support and resistance .......
If you don't understand price action......
  • #234
  • Apr 12, 2020 4:52pm Apr 12, 2020 4:52pm
Quoting copi88
{quote} All one needs to do to identify Institutional Supply or Demand zones is too look for balance areas from which there is a fast money move away. By fast money I mean a rapid movement of price away from the balance area. Rapid moves like this are caused by market makers withdrawing liquidity and by stops being run causing sellers to become buyers and adding fuel to the up move. For this to happen there has to have been institutional activity for the market makers to identify price toxicity and withdraw their liquidity. Draw a market profile...

cool. So we just need a cool blue squiggly line indicator and all will be right with the world!
  • #235
  • Apr 12, 2020 5:06pm Apr 12, 2020 5:06pm
Quoting Shabs19
Eyal Sachar , a known fraudster who has committed fraud in Israel.
Do you have a source for that? Quite interested to have a look.

Quoting Shabs19
The product or knowledge was obtained from Sam Seiden and vigorously marketed by Eyar Shachar, OTA & it's franchisees'
I can attest to that having attended one of their open days in St Albans a few years ago hosted by Sam Evans. The outfit and ambush at the end for course
sign-up was a load of crap in my opinion. That said, the fact it's taken three hundred and odd million for the shit to hit the fan is staggering.
  • #236
  • Apr 12, 2020 6:05pm Apr 12, 2020 6:05pm
[quote=simond2002;12872009]{quote} Do you have a source for that? Quite interested to have a look. {quote}

I haven't followed this up yet, but from here:

https://www.tradingschools.org/onlin...s-its-a-fraud/

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It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #237
  • Apr 12, 2020 7:02pm Apr 12, 2020 7:02pm
Quoting simond2002
{quote} I can attest to that having attended one of their open days in St Albans a few years ago hosted by Sam Evans. The outfit and ambush at the end for course sign-up was a load of crap in my opinion. That said, the fact it's taken three hundred and odd million for the shit to hit the fan is staggering.
I also had a similar experience, shared a car ride with a trading colleague at the time, and we both made aprior agreement that neither would sign up to anything after the free presentation. Of course, freebies were given out to take-away followed by a private sales ( interview) hard sell.
Turned down all discounts on offer etc. Will think about it etc.

Another friend had signed up though, on a previous visit, and he offered them half the money, saying thats all he had, and they accepted. So franchisees were desperate to grab whatever they could get. He was gutted when I told him all the Sam Seiden Stuff is freely available on the net, in fact, even here on this forum and FXstreet.
He did take advantage of their free offer of attending the same class as many times as he wanted, if he wasn't getting the desired results. I think they got fed up of him after the second resitting. As he would not sign up for any other courses after that.
He did comment that he was under the impression that Sam Evans was on a commission and even though his wife was working at the reception, he was not earning enough money as he would have liked, so begs the question, if he was a professional trader, how come he was struggling ?
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #238
  • Apr 12, 2020 7:12pm Apr 12, 2020 7:12pm
Quoting copi88
{quote} All one needs to do to identify Institutional Supply or Demand zones is too look for balance areas from which there is a fast money move away. By fast money I mean a rapid movement of price away from the balance area. Rapid moves like this are caused by market makers withdrawing liquidity and by stops being run causing sellers to become buyers and adding fuel to the up move. For this to happen there has to have been institutional activity for the market makers to identify price toxicity and withdraw their liquidity. Draw a market profile...
I won't even try to go through all the BS in this post. Assumptions piled atop assumptions thrown with some indicators like whip cream and a cherry on top. No wonder concepts like supply/demand, support and resistance and price action get so distorted that others get lost.

Supply/demand is a completely and objectively identifiable occurrence on a price chart. It is irrelevant who is buying and selling. It is only relevant that the price chart indicates that buying and selling is occurred and it is possible to determine where more intense buying and selling occurred.

Price action can also objectively be described in terms of who bought and who sold and really who wins and who loses at any given time based on the time frame.

Being able to objectively describe what is going on on any price chart in terms of buyers and sellers is crucial before making any assumptions and is necessary to becoming a profitable trader. Once one knows exactly what's going on with the chart in front of them then one can begin to make assumptions about what might happen.
  • #239
  • Apr 12, 2020 7:55pm Apr 12, 2020 7:55pm
Quoting copi88
{quote} All one needs to do to identify Institutional Supply or Demand zones is too look for balance areas from which there is a fast money move away. By fast money I mean a rapid movement of price away from the balance area. Rapid moves like this are caused by market makers withdrawing liquidity and by stops being run causing sellers to become buyers and adding fuel to the up move. For this to happen there has to have been institutional activity for the market makers to identify price toxicity and withdraw their liquidity. Draw a market profile...

How can you meassure VALUE in a chart??? That's my doubt.

In stocks.. Analyse a company balance, a company performance the last months, macro and micro data, amount of shareholders.. things to make you understand if a stock is overvaluated or undervaluated...

In currencies.. you have many political factos, economical factors, monetary policies of a Country, debts, can the country pay on time??.. inflation, economic growth, economic recession, gross domestic product, employment rate, unemployment rate, interest rates, exchange of goods between countries... Normally all of this is analyzed between periods of 3 months or 6 months..
Companies importing & exporting...using different currencies for this.. take Covid-19 for example.. how many millions of business stop functioning as they were.. think about how this affect the massive fluctuation of money around the world.. currencies stop being exchanged because of things.. some other currencies getting overvaluated because of this...

How can you meassure a Currency in a chart?

This is why I find this theory of Supply and Demand "Zones" in a chart... very unreal.
Supply and Demand is an Economic term.. This is how the whole market works... Why would you be able to meassure this looking at candles?

Regards
  • #240
  • Edited 9:06pm Apr 12, 2020 8:49pm | Edited 9:06pm
Few hours ago opec + Russia + other opn agreed to cut global oil production by 10mbpd or 10% of global supply.

Market reaction in Tokyo market high 24.42. Although global supply was cut by 10% the price of oil is still stuck in 23-25 range with prevailing bearish bias.

This is a real time market example that price moves according to perceive VALUE and not s/d.

https://time.com/5819795/opec-barrel-cut-coronavirus/
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