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Sam Seiden Goes DOWN

  • #201
  • Apr 11, 2020 7:30pm Apr 11, 2020 7:30pm
Quoting GMD
{quote} Well I agree, in this business there is no "strategy" that someone can teach you to become profitable.. It will all depend on your skills as a trader. I admit that long ago I have watched Sam Seiden videos too.. and not so long ago I read some threads here about S&D.. just to add up more knowledge to my trading skills.. but S&D zones methodologies as some "gurus" here teach, wasn't for me.. My problem with this issue is that there IS people in this forum that use the concept of "S&D ZONES" created by Sam Seiden to sell courses of their own...
Yeah it's on FTC website too. True the main purpose is for trader to adapt to his own strategy. Know when to enter a trade, when to take profit or loss, and sometimes when not to trade at all. It does not look like that Sam is mentioned. they are mentioning OTA and defendant Eyal Shahar...
  • #202
  • Edited Apr 12, 2020 12:16am Apr 11, 2020 11:55pm | Edited Apr 12, 2020 12:16am
Quoting GMD
{quote} Buddy the one that it is still not getting it is you... You are still in denial.. I understand. But the guy was a fraud, a conman, a scammer... This is the guy that created the so popular concept of "S&D ZONES"... and created a whole technical analysis methodology out of it AND SOLD IT WITHOUT ANY PROOF OF EVER WORKING.... To sell a "trading system" you need to get a patent on USA Gov.. apparently they faked it... This way they convinced clients that if they had a patent for a "working system" the thing must be real... Well.. apparently...
Supply and Demand as I was taught has to do with the CFTC COT reports and you mark your levels based on that.. Then you go back through the CME Exchange and get daily data for key levels and match them up with whats on the charts.. Basically you get blocks when hit will either be defended or not inline with volume.. IDK that what I learned from watching the videos I never paid for anything though the internet is free.. and losing money will be a better teacher than any course.. this was 8 or so years ago... I dont think he is guilty.. if your are basing it on what the big firms do then not even close someone just needs to be made an example of.. or pissed on someone with connections..

As for the patents yes cause your partners can fork off and take everything you created many of the billionaires did that example would be Mark Cuban with the digital sports platform.. I use him be cause he said it already..

Bear Stearn also patented its trading methods you can download the trading manual and its the intell property of the company and would be under trade secrets or something along those line I am not a lawyer..
  • #203
  • Edited 12:59am Apr 12, 2020 12:44am | Edited 12:59am
Here are the facts about "supply and demand".

In the futures market you get the DOM where orders are seen for each price level step.
There is info about active orders.

For forex market through our brokers, we get tick data that's collated into ohlc candles.
There is no info about orders.

How then is it possible to "see" supply or demand on the chart ?

There are 2 ways to do this,

Logical deduction from the ohlc candle; ie. speed of in-coming tick data, length of candle, size of the body and wick of the candle.....and so on.
This is backed by thousands of hours of screen staring to.....
acquire the skill and experience to make experiential deduction about supply and demand.

Or,

Interpret from COT reports and other CME data.

That's "supply and demand" trading strategy in a nutshell.

Note - in either both ways, the common denominator is that the information is not static and is relative in nature.
This means from a math perspective, it's in time series format for meaningful interpretation.
Know what you trade
  • #204
  • Apr 12, 2020 2:01am Apr 12, 2020 2:01am
Quoting BWilliam
Here are the facts about "supply and demand". In the futures market you get the DOM where orders are seen for each price level step. There is info about active orders. For forex market through our brokers, we get tick data that's collated into ohlc candles. There is no info about orders. How then is it possible to "see" supply or demand on the chart ? There are 2 ways to do this, Logical deduction from the ohlc candle; ie. speed of in-coming tick data, length of candle, size of the body and wick of the candle.....and so on. This is backed by thousands...
I agree with the latter then transfer the data to the chart via CSV or TSV.. and the chart is able to be marked up.. It take about 15 minutes after settlement.. to have your charts marked with the data.. When it comes from cross pair ex. Multiply USD/JPY x AUD/JPY = AUD/JPY price and now you have the key levels to base your trades on.. Even after all of that its still a logical guess.. Thats when watching price action and more comes it bringing in all of your experience to make a logical choice. You and I can still be wrong even if we are right.. To early you fail. To late you fail. On time its still possible to fail. I agree with you..
  • #205
  • Apr 12, 2020 2:09am Apr 12, 2020 2:09am
Quoting Asw
Forex is like driving a Trading Car, you come into all situations that action is needs and the driver has to take action, how can that be possible with a fixed system. EA’s cannot not and don’t work, they might work sometimes, but will eventually blow the account. Asw
In theory you can collect and handle "all situations" in EA. You can programm EA to "see" angles and lines. You can connect your EA to news feeds. Its complicated but it can be done advanced decision making with EA and even self learning EAs using AI.

I use much simplier EAs and i am fine. But i never rely on 1 particular EA.. because there exists fluctuations for every strategy in longterm. So I am building an ecosystem of N EAs to compensate fluctuations. Some accounts linked in my profile TEs. Will see how it will work in longterm.

Idea is to make packages of EAs for multiple symbols when each EA setup is optimaized/backtested at least 10 years history. All running on 1 account. Total drawdown of N EAs package in 10 years backtests no more than 30%. Run that on account A (signal sender). Then have account B and turn on trades copier from A to B when A in 15% drawdown. Close copier when A get out of drawdown. So we trade A balance line...like a normal chart... but its virtual asset...

I never saw anybody doing that approach here in this forum. If you are here more than 5 years and know about "synthetic assets" or "trading the balance line" approach (dont know right keyword how to name that) then please share links where can see how it failed... or link to theoretical gurus speaking abot that approach. Thank you.
  • #206
  • Apr 12, 2020 3:49am Apr 12, 2020 3:49am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Totally agreed, Supply / Demand along with support and resistance do not exist. If a trader spends enough time on a 1 minute chart, they may start to understand what moves price.
Exactly, when traders spend their time to glue your eyes on a 1 mins chart for around 12 hours per day will see how to market movement. I already ignore the TA method for a long time and with me, the chart just for see price
  • #207
  • Apr 12, 2020 4:09am Apr 12, 2020 4:09am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Totally agreed, Supply / Demand along with support and resistance do not exist. If a trader spends enough time on a 1 minute chart, they may start to understand what moves price.
Price moves due to imbalance between supply and demand. Price doesn't move when supply and demand are balanced. Without supply and demand the markets do not exist.
  • #208
  • Apr 12, 2020 4:12am Apr 12, 2020 4:12am
To all the "Sam Seiden" out there. I hope you don't mind if I share your business model with everyone...

There is one and only one business model that will make money in retail forex

It's a plan similar to this:

1) find a gimmick (example "We found the W D Gann secret" or "Using weekly pivots - the correct way" or "Supply & Demand Zones" etc ...
2) Show some positive trading track record (demo is ok and results can be "doctored" as needed)
3) Grow a membership base. You must invest and put all your effort in marketing
4) Set up your own web site (paid members only!)
5) For the edification of your enthralled followers, make sure to do a "live trading session once a week" - real money, as a marketing expense ..
6) and to cap it all, always sell sell sell; (Membership fee, subscriptions, books, videos, training, software ; etc ...)
  • #209
  • Apr 12, 2020 4:52am Apr 12, 2020 4:52am
Quoting Mingary
To all the "Sam Seiden" out there. I hope you don't mind if I share your business model with everyone... There is one and only one business model that will make money in retail forex It's a plan similar to this: 1) find a gimmick (example "We found the W D Gann secret" or "Using weekly pivots - the correct way" or "Supply & Demand Zones" etc ... 2) Show some positive trading track record (demo is ok and results can be "doctored" as needed) 3) Grow a membership base. You must invest and put all your effort in marketing 4) Set up your own web site...
hey... Some of the largest investment managers using quantitative analysis include Renaissance Technologies, Winton Group, D. E. Shaw & Co., AQR Capital Management, and Two Sigma Investments.

They earn money from trading.. so it should be possible.

There was a man. God came to him in a dream and told: "Push that cliff". The man started to push the cliff. Every day. He tried very hard. And no results. After several years man cried on the God "Why nothing happens? It is not possible! You see the cliff is not moving at all!!!". And God replied "I didnt told you to move that cliff. I told you just push that cliff. I will move that cliff when needed. But look at your self now - how you learned discipline, how you trained your muscles. You now are a lot stronger person."
  • #210
  • Apr 12, 2020 5:05am Apr 12, 2020 5:05am
Quoting Dmh
{quote} Price moves due to imbalance between supply and demand. Price doesn't move when supply and demand are balanced. Without supply and demand the markets do not exist.
Imagine a horse race when one can gamble on horses running forwards as well as backwards and where the course owner knew the outcome before the horse was born. Welcome to Forex.
  • #211
  • Apr 12, 2020 5:40am Apr 12, 2020 5:40am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Imagine a horse race when one can gamble on horses running forwards as well as backwards and where the course owner knew the outcome before the horse was born. Welcome to Forex.
The owner earns nothing if the others don't demand or supply, if they don't gamble. Imbalance between supply and demand is the reason why price moves, it doesn't matter if your conspiracy theory is true or not. In both cases it is an imbalance between supply and demand what moves the price.
  • #212
  • Apr 12, 2020 6:48am Apr 12, 2020 6:48am
it is hard to believe.
  • #213
  • Apr 12, 2020 6:53am Apr 12, 2020 6:53am
I am draw zones for my trading even I don't know what this zones name called ? Some people said support resistance and some people said supply demand ?

One thing I am sure is the zones I am draw is totally different than others or even gurus out there

And the most importantly is the zones I draw is make a lot of money consistently
  • #214
  • Apr 12, 2020 9:00am Apr 12, 2020 9:00am
Quoting q_import
{quote} Supply and Demand as I was taught has to do with the CFTC COT reports and you mark your levels based on that.. Then you go back through the CME Exchange and get daily data for key levels and match them up with whats on the charts.. Basically you get blocks when hit will either be defended or not inline with volume.. IDK that what I learned from watching the videos I never paid for anything though the internet is free.. and losing money will be a better teacher than any course.. this was 8 or so years ago... I dont think he is guilty.. if...
Well what you said about CFTC COT reports is interesting. Where can I get this reports??

Idk I am just saying he is guilty because of FTC lawsuit. It says Sam Seiden & Co had an agreement with a broker I think called Trade Station. Sam Seiden's trading program encouraged their students to open accounts with a minimum of $5000 and at the end of 6 months they would be able to start making high returns on monthly basis.
When FTC investigated this broker, they discovered that about 80% of the clients with $5000 or more, lost an average of 94% of their money on an estimated time of 6 months..

I do not know if this CFTC COT reports combined with this S&D zones work.. Sam Seiden had to fake a patent to teach his strategy to people.. never proved being profitable.. This are not my words tho.

For sure, bankers, wall street brokers, betting companies etc, many are corrupted and probably have contacts in Gov.. Perhaps SSeiden didnt have this contacts, or not enough money to keep him out of investigation, a small guy... Still, the man was a fraud.
  • #215
  • Apr 12, 2020 9:10am Apr 12, 2020 9:10am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Winston Lets get to the facts on whether price action rules work or not. The answer is very easy because I also design, write and build Algorithms so I can build price action models that follow any price action strategy I like. I also work with a team of other Aussie EA builders and work on a few projects together on Discord and Skype Groups so I have a good grasp of what strategy's work. I have witnessed probably a few hundred models in my time within my group as well (tip- most EA's will never match a great manual trader)' May I also...
Your statements and EAs are full of assumptions as are any programmed entities of any kind. What goes in is what goes out. You can't code for every possibility since human nature in just not codable. My view on what buyers and sellers are actually doing in terms of so-called supply/demand, so-called price action and so-called support and resistance is likely not what you and anyone else here assumes they are or have been indoctrinated into believing they are by the masses. You say a particular trading method such as supply and demand fails only because of what YOU think it is and what YOU have coded. You or anyone else can't possibly know everything about anything. Most here have assumptions of what they think any trading paradigm entails wrong or right.

I incoroprate my own paradigm of price action, supply and demand and s/r and other concepts not mentioned here into my trading and I assure you my ideas are not what the herd thinks they are and likely have not been put in any EA because they really couldn't be. A major reason for that is a large part of my trading is just feel and nothing more. It comes with many thousands of hours of screen time, experience and also with constantly questioning accepted herd beliefs about every aspect of trading. I don't believe in EAs nor do I use them.

But I am still amazed that this thread has really turned into a somewhat arrogant mass attempt to dismiss or invalidate certain trading concepts. This attempt is based in previous failure, anger, invalid assumptions and arrogance. Whether you and others are successful in convincing yourselves or others is only relevant here in this pitiful thread and irrelevant to many who will find out for themselves whether something works or not.
  • #216
  • Apr 12, 2020 9:23am Apr 12, 2020 9:23am
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Your statements and EAs are full of assumptions as are any programmed entities of any kind. What goes in is what goes out. You can't code for every possibility since human nature in just not codable. My view on what buyers and sellers are actually doing in terms of so-called supply/demand, so-called price action and so-called support and resistance is likely not what you and anyone else here assumes they are or have been indoctrinated into believing they are by the masses. You say a particular trading method such as supply and demand fails...
on a postive roll...
  • #217
  • Apr 12, 2020 9:24am Apr 12, 2020 9:24am
Quoting Winston Reed
I incoroprate my own paradigm of price action, supply and demand and s/r and other concepts not mentioned here into my trading and I assure you my ideas are not what the herd thinks they are and likely have not been put in any EA because they really couldn't be. A major reason for that is a large part of my trading is just feel and nothing more. It comes with many thousands of hours of screen time, experience and also with constantly questioning accepted herd beliefs about every aspect of trading.
Discretionary interpretation, understanding and discretionary trade decision making can't be objectively quantified as they differ from trader to trader and from one trade to another.
Like you correctly describe, it's based on the feel and nothing more.

"Supply demand", "support resistance", "price action", "trade what you see", "trade with my eyes" collectively come under this umbrella of discretionary trading.

It's always a case of MY interpretation, understanding and decision making.
This makes it not teachable. Rather a skill that's acquired by way of screen time experience.
Know what you trade
  • #218
  • Apr 12, 2020 9:39am Apr 12, 2020 9:39am
s / r levels, supply and demand, fibo.
in the long run I tried to trade with them but the results did not come so I stopped using them.
the hit rate did not reach the expected level.
  • #219
  • Apr 12, 2020 9:50am Apr 12, 2020 9:50am
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Your statements and EAs are full of assumptions as are any programmed entities of any kind. What goes in is what goes out. You can't code for every possibility since human nature in just not codable. My view on what buyers and sellers are actually doing in terms of so-called supply/demand, so-called price action and so-called support and resistance is likely not what you and anyone else here assumes they are or have been indoctrinated into believing they are by the masses. You say a particular trading method such as supply and demand fails...
Hi Winston

If you wish to have a go at me, that's fine but please have the decently of referring to me as Rick in what you call a pitiful thread.

I was referring to the standard definitions of supply and demand, support and resistance that are quote in most trading manuals, and sold in training courses around the world. My statement was simply - I have coded most versions of these text book examples of these actions, the standard definitions don't work.

Now if you have found a way to trade and be profitable using these actions by FEELINGS that make you feel nice and warm GREAT. I wish you well.
Seriously lets do a Skype chat to discuss your trading and find some common ground.

You also said you don't believe in EA's nor use them. I would say you are missing out on understand how mathematics has a historian importance in predicting future events. While I agree EA's are Dumb and often unaware of major market changes, they do still work because you can not play physiological games against a Algo.

Cheers Rick
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #220
  • Apr 12, 2020 10:02am Apr 12, 2020 10:02am
Quoting Mingary
To all the "Sam Seiden" out there. I hope you don't mind if I share your business model with everyone... There is one and only one business model that will make money in retail forex It's a plan similar to this: 1) find a gimmick (example "We found the W D Gann secret" or "Using weekly pivots - the correct way" or "Supply & Demand Zones" etc ... 2) Show some positive trading track record (demo is ok and results can be "doctored" as needed) 3) Grow a membership base. You must invest and put all your effort in marketing 4) Set up your own web site...
I see a problem with point n# 2.. There is no positive trading record on any of those people.
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