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Pivot Trading

  • #36,421
  • Edited 8:20am Apr 10, 2020 8:09am | Edited 8:20am
I am continually amazed on power of pivots. Yes at times they can get crashed on powerful fundamentally driven market (virus,trade war etc)or thin holiday liquid times but in general I'll say 80% of times price adheres to pivots. Like on GU now

I am anticipating once Market opens next week with normal liquidity AU shall drop good chunk.It was driven up on thin liquidity by MM crashing stops but shall come down to earth specially that RBA will go printing money on greater scale.

I think this is just the beginning.
AUSTRALIA
MONETARY STIMULUS - The Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates in two steps (25 bps on March 3, 25 bps on March 19), taking the cash rate to 0.25%; introduced the first use of quantitative easing, setting a target of around 0.25% for bond yields.
LIQUIDITY OPERATIONS AND FUNDING - A A$90 billion ($56 billion) funding facility to banks at fixed rate of 0.25%; A$15 billion purchase programme of residential mortgage-backed and other asset-backed securities; A$715 million support programme for airlines.
FISCAL STIMULUS - A$66.1 billion in assistance for companies and additional welfare payments; A$17.6 billion in subsidies for apprentices, small businesses, pensioners and others; A$130 billion to subsidise wages of an estimated 6 million people.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #36,422
  • Apr 10, 2020 8:28am Apr 10, 2020 8:28am
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN21R1N9
Factbox: Global economic policy response to coronavirus crisis
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #36,423
  • Edited 9:40am Apr 10, 2020 9:05am | Edited 9:40am
Quoting Davit
I am continually amazed on power of pivots. Yes at times they can get crashed on powerful fundamentally driven market (virus,trade war etc)or thin holiday liquid times but in general I'll say 80% of times price adheres to pivots. Like on GU now I am anticipating once Market opens next week with normal liquidity AU shall drop good chunk.It was driven up on thin liquidity by MM crashing stops but shall come down to earth specially that RBA will go printing money on greater scale. I think this is just the beginning. AUSTRALIA MONETARY STIMULUS - The...

I was watching GU too. Right now bears are clearly visible

BUT

I have a bad presentiment, because i was waiting it on an higher price and on m15 it looks like has broken a little range. I don't know, it looks like a "bear trap"... it's too much an easy short. Just my 2 paranoid cents
  • #36,424
  • Apr 10, 2020 9:21am Apr 10, 2020 9:21am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Ron you can post here as much as you like.Its interesting without even knowing some of our trades are same I was little irritated on my shoulder injury which effected me getting too hard on myself.Feeling little better and dont feel the same about the trade.If loss needs to be taken then must be taken.Last three weeks I hit numbers that is spectacular by any measure so its fine taking a loss here and there.Thanks for the advise will monitor it closely. Happy holidays!
Thank you Davit for welcoming me to your thread.

Glad to hear you’re feeling better.
10% buy 10% sell 80% waiting
  • #36,425
  • Apr 10, 2020 9:24am Apr 10, 2020 9:24am
Quoting Davit
I am continually amazed on power of pivots. Yes at times they can get crashed on powerful fundamentally driven market (virus,trade war etc)or thin holiday liquid times but in general I'll say 80% of times price adheres to pivots. Like on GU now I am anticipating once Market opens next week with normal liquidity AU shall drop good chunk.It was driven up on thin liquidity by MM crashing stops but shall come down to earth specially that RBA will go printing money on greater scale. I think this is just the beginning. AUSTRALIA MONETARY STIMULUS -...
Brilliant post.
10% buy 10% sell 80% waiting
  • #36,426
  • Apr 10, 2020 9:40am Apr 10, 2020 9:40am
Quoting Davit
I am continually amazed on power of pivots. Yes at times they can get crashed on powerful fundamentally driven market (virus,trade war etc)or thin holiday liquid times but in general I'll say 80% of times price adheres to pivots. Like on GU now I am anticipating once Market opens next week with normal liquidity AU shall drop good chunk.It was driven up on thin liquidity by MM crashing stops but shall come down to earth specially that RBA will go printing money on greater scale. I think this is just the beginning. AUSTRALIA MONETARY STIMULUS - The...
Hi Davit,

GBPUSD - Stops Hunts price around 1.24800 - 1.25000 which is near to Weekly Pivot R61. Sellers should be waiting there to go south. I have sold this pair between this prices.

EURGBP - Stops Hunts price around 0.87400 - 0.87500 which is near to Weekly Pivot S38. Buyers should be waiting there to go north. I have bought this pair between this prices.

EURUSD - Stops Hunts price around 1.09500 - 1.10000. Sellers should be waiting there to go south. I will sell this pair between this prices.

Hopes it helps all Pivot traders.
Great thread Great leader ( Davit )

Have a great holidays and weekend.
10% buy 10% sell 80% waiting
  • #36,427
  • Apr 10, 2020 9:40am Apr 10, 2020 9:40am
Quoting YoungET
{quote} Grew up around motorcycles, specifically sports bikes from as early as I can remember. Absolutely love seeing the beauties you have posted throughout your thread, noticed you have a slight soft spot for the cafe racer & cruiser variety
Hi Young
I started on moped then Yamaha YZF600 sportbike SV650 Honda VFR800 CB750 now (SV650 heavily modified was my favorite best handling bike out there for price) missed my VFR800 it was totaled on parking lot.Sound of that gear driven cams intoxicating.
Looking for something different attracted to BMW R9T new R1800 HD V rod, Vmax basically power cruisers.Love power.
When I married everyone told me to stop riding too dangerous.Funny part I had more urge to ride since marriage.I will ride until I can't physically.Love riding.This is something only bikers understand.
cheers
Attached Image
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #36,428
  • Apr 10, 2020 9:46am Apr 10, 2020 9:46am
Look at this beauty
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  • #36,429
  • Apr 10, 2020 9:48am Apr 10, 2020 9:48am
Quoting RieseP
Look at this beauty {image}
love cafe style.That's gorgeous minimalist art. Old boxers are easy to modify and K100 make great ones.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #36,430
  • Apr 10, 2020 9:53am Apr 10, 2020 9:53am
Quoting TraderR0N
{quote} Hi Davit, GBPUSD - Stops Hunts price around 1.24800 - 1.25000 which is near to Weekly Pivot R61. Sellers should be waiting there to go south. I have sold this pair between this prices. EURGBP - Stops Hunts price around 0.87400 - 0.87500 which is near to Weekly Pivot S38. Buyers should be waiting there to go north. I have bought this pair between this prices. EURUSD - Stops Hunts price around 1.09500 - 1.10000. Sellers should be waiting there to go south. I will sell this pair between this prices. Hopes it helps all Pivot traders. Great thread...
Thanks Ron
Goes without saying next week will watch these levels to see how MM will act.Lot of pairs are at exhaustion levels
PA is king.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #36,431
  • Apr 10, 2020 9:55am Apr 10, 2020 9:55am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Thanks Ron Goes without saying next week will watch these levels to see how MM will act.Lot of pairs are at exhaustion levels PA is king. regards
Indeed Davit.

Trade safe.

See you around next week.
10% buy 10% sell 80% waiting
  • #36,432
  • Apr 10, 2020 9:58am Apr 10, 2020 9:58am
Quoting MrGreen95
{quote} I was watching GU too. Right now bears are clearly visible BUT I have a bad presentiment, because i was waiting it on an higher price and on m15 it looks like has broken a little range. I don't know, it looks like a "bear trap"... it's too much an easy short. Just my 2 paranoid cents
There is such a thing called over paralyses from over analyzing. You got to read trading in the zone or listen free book on youtube
Core principle in trading to me is understanding probability theory.If you have genuine EDGE then repeating them over large sample size should make you good profits.Having said this its best waiting next week for new trades.Present conditions(thin liquidity) is no indicative for next week's actions to come.
Hope this helps
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #36,433
  • Apr 10, 2020 1:21pm Apr 10, 2020 1:21pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Young I started on moped then Yamaha YZF600 sportbike SV650 Honda VFR800 CB750 now (SV650 heavily modified was my favorite best handling bike out there for price) missed my VFR800 it was totaled on parking lot.Sound of that gear driven cams intoxicating. Looking for something different attracted to BMW R9T new R1800 HD V rod, Vmax basically power cruisers.Love power. When I married everyone told me to stop riding too dangerous.Funny part I had more urge to ride since marriage.I will ride until I can't physically.Love riding.This...
Great RPM ranges on the 600-750cc's and most are very forgiving to most riders, hence why a lot won't graduate up to the 1000cc when it comes to sport bikes. But lord if you've ever blipped the throttle on one of those beasts it's unworldly!

My father used to partake in British Motorcycle Racing back in the 1980s and was good friends with Barry Sheen, perhaps you may know the name? He owned a 2003 Suzuki Hayabusa 1300 but ended up having someone pull a U turn infront of him writing the bike off..
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Then my two older brothers one currently has his Suzuki GSXR 1000 up for sale and the other is bouncing around between Aprilia's, I myself am currently only riding a Yamaha R3 since in the UK we have laws preventing a novice rider from jumping on a 1000cc motorcycle and flying down the motorway at 180mph :')

As for being told not to ride once you have a family, my father received the same speech from everyone. Perhaps rightly so since he did have a fatal motorcycle accident at a fairly young age but managed to pull through, but that was due to his own actions and with age comes maturity (at least I hope for most) but the thing with riding especially here in the UK maybe not as much in the US since you have such better road layouts and widths, it's drivers in cars being unaware and the road furniture such as railings etc that pose the real threat.
  • #36,434
  • Apr 10, 2020 2:04pm Apr 10, 2020 2:04pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} There is such a thing called over paralyses from over analyzing. You got to read trading in the zone or listen free book on youtube Core principle in trading to me is understanding probability theory.If you have genuine EDGE then repeating them over large sample size should make you good profits.Having said this its best waiting next week for new trades.Present conditions(thin liquidity) is no indicative for next week's actions to come. Hope this helps

Every post you write is helpful
  • #36,435
  • Apr 10, 2020 2:05pm Apr 10, 2020 2:05pm
Quoting TraderR0N
{quote} Hi Davit, GBPUSD - Stops Hunts price around 1.24800 - 1.25000 which is near to Weekly Pivot R61. Sellers should be waiting there to go south. I have sold this pair between this prices. EURGBP - Stops Hunts price around 0.87400 - 0.87500 which is near to Weekly Pivot S38. Buyers should be waiting there to go north. I have bought this pair between this prices. EURUSD - Stops Hunts price around 1.09500 - 1.10000. Sellers should be waiting there to go south. I will sell this pair between this prices. Hopes it helps all Pivot traders. Great thread...

Hi Ron. On Cable we thought the same thing. I said it was too soon maybe selling after the m15 big red candle, indeed buyers in 1 hour have recovered all, re entering in the range. Now it seems price it's leaving this range. Under 1.24435 zone i would feel more comfortable to go short
  • #36,436
  • Apr 10, 2020 3:11pm Apr 10, 2020 3:11pm
Quoting RieseP
Look at this beauty {image}
Look at my beauty. Oops someone took some of it
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  • #36,437
  • Edited 7:09pm Apr 11, 2020 3:41am | Edited 7:09pm
Calendar events for week 13-17

Overview
After the feds massive stimuli packages USD took a beating pushing most majors on the edges of their respected swing tops.This presents couple of scenarios continued USD weakness against her peers or corrections return of USD bulls.As we already know from Elliot Wave theory Price usually does not go straight line. I personally anticipate USD bulls returning and corrections are more likely then not.
This week is heavy on commodity pairs AUD, CAD and focus will be on it specially the CAD which I frequently trade often.

Monday
AUD NAB Business Confidence--Anticipating red number here
CNY Trade Balance--Green number here will surely help AUD however may not last long as we have unemployment on Weds.

Weds

USD core Retail Sales m/m
Retail Sales m/m
Both numbers are expected to be red however these numbers may not have any impact because everyone else are in the same boat Canada EU UK NZD Australia therefore show caution selling USD watch how MM react on this.

CAD Rate Policy statement Expectation of .25 will stay
Personally I think CAD likely to gain after press conference or before.Much depends how BOC goes around issues with Covid19 more stimulus or not.

AUD big mover here
Employment Change/Unemployment Rate
Rate is pretty generous projection 5.4? I think it may print higher.In which case I expect AUD to tank specially on crosses like AC EA GA AN
Based on how seriously EA GA dropped corrections here are likely!

Thurs
USD Unemployment Claims lets just say very red.... Wait and see MM reaction

CNY GDP q/y -6% will not help AUD NZD


Should be great profitable week I am excited

As a refresher knowledge of events are a must for professional traders who pay their bills from trading like me and for those who are serious.
Everything is not on the charts.Example if you had zero awareness on Weds AUD employment event and PA was bullish 5min before (MM manipulation usually) and you buy AUD 6min later tanks 100pips hitting your SL or No SL you will feel stupid.Wondering what just happened. know your craft! have awareness of events in advance!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #36,438
  • Apr 11, 2020 9:37am Apr 11, 2020 9:37am
Quoting Hutch
{quote} Look at my beauty. Oops someone took some of it {image}
Same as mine lol
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Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy! - John Bogle
  • #36,439
  • Apr 11, 2020 7:21pm Apr 11, 2020 7:21pm
[quote=Davit;12870683]Calendar events for week 13-17 Overview After the feds massive stimuli packages USD took a beating pushing most majors on the edges of their respected swing tops.This presents couple of scenarios continued USD weakness against her peers or corrections return of USD bulls.As we already know from Elliot Wave theory Price unusually does not go straight line. I personally anticipate USD bulls returning and corrections are more likely then not. This week is heavy on commodity pairs AUD, CAD and focus will be on it specially the CAD which I frequently trade often. Monday AUD NAB Business Confidence--Anticipating red number here CNY Trade Balance--Green number here will surely help AUD however may not last long as we have unemployment on Weds. Weds USD core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m Both numbers are expected to be red however these numbers may not have any impact because everyone else are in the same boat Canada EU UK NZD Australia therefore show caution selling USD watch how MM react on AUD big mover here Employment Change/Unemployment Rate Rate is pretty generous projection 5.4? I think it may print higher.In which case I expect AUD to tank specially on crosses like AC EA GA AN Based on how seriously EA GA dropped corrections here are likely! Thurs USD Unemployment Claims lets just say very red.... Wait and see MM reaction CNY GDP q/y -6% will not help AUD NZD Should be great profitable week I am excited

Excellent post !!
AU is looking heavy and poised to possibly head South.
UC hitting heavy support at S78 and S61 last week.
The Market "seems" ready to punish the AUD , IF , RED NEWS PRINTS (seems highly likely). So far the Aussie has not been punished with negative fundamental News.
USD and CAD seem to be purely technically driven lately , at least from my perspective.
Reading "Trading In The Zone" again this weekend. First two chapters are fantastic and deal with the desirable psychology of what it takes to be a consistently successful trader. A MUST READ if you truly want to "get inside of your own head".
Have a great week guys , wish you all much health and happiness ,
GE
"Define the risk OUT of your trade"--Mark Douglas
  • #36,440
  • Apr 12, 2020 3:26am Apr 12, 2020 3:26am
Good you are reading TITZ again. I found his other book "The disciplined trader" and though written in late 80s it is amazing how up to date it is.

Happy Easter!
Fix up, trade sharp ...
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