{quote} that's quite an argument of yours... isn't it the same bunch of morons that had been trying to ridicule me for my market outlook for several months straight before stuffing their tongues up their rear ends and now all of a sudden resurrecting again just because the markets are currently making some technical Fibo related correction?...
Do I personally believe we will see 6000 again in the Dow? No. Could I be wrong? Sure. Do I think that we will see total financial ruin in the US economy? No. Could I be wrong? Sure. But I also have a lot of experience and knowledge, and I rely on mine (just as you rely on yours) on which to base future outlooks. Again, my outlook is primarily very short term, but I use my knowledge and experience on a daily basis and it has served me very well over the years. Sometimes it leads me in the same direction as others, sometimes it doesn't. But when I am confident of a prediction, that means I am confident enough to put money on it, and since I nearly always end up making money on my predictions, it just helps reinforce my confidence. And if people disagree, then they disagree. I am perfectly happy making money without input from anyone else.
If people feel the Dow is headed back to 6000 soon, sell some Calls and buy some Puts. If it's going there, at least capitalize on it. Same for those that believe new highs will be reached (well, kinda the same, only sell some Puts and buy some Calls). Because regardless of whether we are headed back to some dark ages or a new dawn, there are ways to make money either way. So it sorta doesn't matter who is right, what matters is who is making money, because it isn't worth a hill of beans if someone can predict movement if they aren't going to use that prediction to actually trade. That's why I don't listen to market analysts, because if they were that good at predicting stock movement, why are they working for someone else instead of trading? I like the short term, definitive predictions rather than the generalities; I had a trading partner once that was amazing a predicting the movement of currency pairs....because he would say something like "the GBP/JPY is going down soon"...and eventually, he was always right!
But I just don't believe that SARS-CoV-19 will be the end of global financial stability or that it is going to be so devastating that trading will be a thing of the past. Maybe I am just too much of an optimist, but I think that when a vaccine is developed, when better treatments are developed and when more is understood of the virus, human nature will take over and we will push forward yet again, in all financial and societal aspects. We will be smarter, we will have adjusted priorities, and we will have come to realize that there is much to be said for distance learning and work at home and buying on line.
Just my opinion.....
