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Forex is random

  • #321
  • Apr 8, 2020 1:43am Apr 8, 2020 1:43am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} If you don't have a mechanism to protect yourself from such move, don't you think your methodology is questionable or more precisely your risk management?
Since then I have an auto stop loss and don't leave any trade for more than a few mins unless they are winning.
Look at it this way if the market ever crashes again while I am in trade will hit my SL, However, there is never any set TP with my system so a crash may actually be beneficial to me.
I don't have a set take profit so if the market were to crash my loss is limited ( may lose more than intended due to slippage), But I actually have the potential to win a lot more.
  • #322
  • Apr 8, 2020 1:43am Apr 8, 2020 1:43am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} I don't believe the market is manipulated. Even the algos are fighting each other, it's not like there is just one algo running the show.
There is one Algo running the show.

But first you have to read a post I wrote a week back about how MT4 brokers place new traders into different serves which have lower liquidity. My mate lost $7000 on a Gold spike that only occurred on half of servers from a major broker. When he challenged them, he was refunded on the spot.
They admitted it was manipulation by them.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #323
  • Apr 8, 2020 1:51am Apr 8, 2020 1:51am
Quoting RickM
{quote} There is one Algo running the show. But first you have to read a post I wrote a week back about how MT4 brokers place new traders into different serves which have lower liquidity. My mate lost $7000 on a Gold spike that only occurred on half of servers from a major broker. When he challenged them, he was refunded on the spot. They admitted it was manipulation by them.
Then the broker is shady. Which is something else than say algos manipulate price.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #324
  • Apr 8, 2020 1:54am Apr 8, 2020 1:54am
Quoting AmmaBoss
{quote} Since then I have an auto stop loss and don't leave any trade for more than a few mins unless they are winning. Look at it this way if the market ever crashes again while I am in trade will hit my SL, However, there is never any set TP with my system so a crash may actually be beneficial to me. I don't have a set take profit so if the market were to crash my loss is limited ( may lose more than intended due to slippage), But I actually have the potential to win a lot more.
good measure.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #325
  • Edited 2:09am Apr 8, 2020 1:58am | Edited 2:09am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Then the broker is shady. Which is something else than say algos manipulate price.
I ...M.......s, the biggest broker in the market.

There is a Algorithm in the centre of the Forex market that performs the Auction Task.
I believe it has a coding fault which is used by some parties to manipulate the market. All it takes is a quarter of a second and some fire power and you can change market direction at will. You need to study tick charts for a year or two before you have any chance of seeing it.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #326
  • Apr 8, 2020 2:14am Apr 8, 2020 2:14am
Quoting AmmaBoss
{quote} If some parts of the market are not random, then the entire market can not be random, therefore trading can be profitable. I have already shown you a TE with over 500 trades, with no trade lasting more than 1 hour, with about 160% profit not counting the ridiculous transaction cost I paid to trade, Proving that money can be made within this market. I speak to profit-farmer often who is another individual that has an entire thread and an active TE showing/proofing he is profitable. As we speak I am one of a few individuals who can say that...
Hi AmmaBoss

If you have worked with the master trader profitfarmer and seen how he trades, you have nothing to prove to me. We may be trading along similar strategy's.

Cheers Rick
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #327
  • Apr 8, 2020 3:10am Apr 8, 2020 3:10am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi AmmaBoss If you have worked with the master trader profitfarmer and seen how he trades, you have nothing to prove to me. We may be trading along similar strategy's. Cheers Rick
lol, Rick, not master....but yeah, you and me trade along where similar understanding
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #328
  • Apr 8, 2020 3:29am Apr 8, 2020 3:29am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi AmmaBoss If you have worked with the master trader profitfarmer and seen how he trades, you have nothing to prove to me. We may be trading along similar strategy's. Cheers Rick
My method if anything contradicts his teaching but he was the first person to provide proof that trading can indeed be profitable.
  • #329
  • Apr 8, 2020 3:51am Apr 8, 2020 3:51am
[quote=viptrading;12862653]
Quoting axecap
{quote} No. You need to understand the difference between a zero sum game and a free market. How I trade and the fact that I can make my own rules in trading, I can hedge, I can hold multiple positions, etc. Is the difference between a free market and a zero sum game. https://www.fxstreet.com/education/l...x-200902190000
Im not saying it is Zero sum. Im saying you clearly dont understand what zero sum means......look up the definition
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #330
  • Apr 8, 2020 3:57am Apr 8, 2020 3:57am
[quote=axecap;12864764]
Quoting viptrading
{quote} Im not saying it is Zero sum. Im saying you clearly dont understand what zero sum means......look up the definition
Forex is not a game, therefore game theory does not apply to it. I know what zero sum game means, I am saying that it does not apply to Forex. Also, if you are not saying that Forex is a zero sum game, does that mean you agree with me?

If so, what is the point of your comment? Man. I honestly don't get why you would waste your time to argue with me over a definition if you agree with me in the first place, or maybe you don't have an opinion at all, and are just adding no value to the conversation at all...
  • #331
  • Apr 8, 2020 4:04am Apr 8, 2020 4:04am
Here is a way to prove if Forex is random or not. Take a basket of currency pairs. For example all USD crosses. AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY.

Look at the Hourly trends of them, determine whether they are a) In a downtrend b) In an uptrend or c) In a range.

Then, look for entries on a lower timeframe, such as the 5 Minute chart for example. Using support and resistance areas plotted on this chart, only take in the direction of your bias.

Take one trade on each pair. Use a 1:1 r/r ratio.

Do this for 1000 trades each.

Then compare that to a random selection of trades for the same basket of pairs, and compare the result.
  • #332
  • Apr 8, 2020 4:04am Apr 8, 2020 4:04am
Quoting AmmaBoss
My method if anything contradicts his teaching but he was the first person to provide proof that trading can indeed be profitable.
That's normal.
Buyers buy when they believe price is rising, sellers sell when they believe price is falling.
Equal number of lots on both sides for each transaction.
Whose beliefs are equal and opposite.
Know what you trade
  • #333
  • Apr 8, 2020 4:08am Apr 8, 2020 4:08am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} That's normal. Buyers buy when they believe price is rising, sellers sell when the believe price is falling. Equal number of lots on both sides for each transaction. Whose beliefs are equal and opposite.
No. There is not an "equal amount" on each side of every transaction. There is always in fact, an imbalance of buyers vs sellers which is what causes a market do increase, or decrease in value.

If there were equal amounts on each side currencies would not move at all.
  • #334
  • Apr 8, 2020 4:10am Apr 8, 2020 4:10am
Quoting viptrading
{quote} No. There is not an "equal amount" on each side of every transaction. There is always in fact, an imbalance of buyers vs sellers which is what causes a market do increase, or decrease in value. If there were equal amounts on each side currencies would not move at all.
There has to be equal lots for both buyer and seller for each transaction executed. Fact.

There cannot exist an unbalanced situation where 5lots bought and 3lots sold in a transaction. Not possible in an auction market.
Know what you trade
  • #335
  • Apr 8, 2020 4:15am Apr 8, 2020 4:15am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} There has to be equal lots for both buyer and seller for each transaction executed. Fact. There cannot exist a situation where 5lots bought and 3lots sold in a transaction. Not possible in a auction market.
Actually this is what causes the market to move the imbalance between sellers and buyers.
Retailers will never experience it but if your order is big enough it gets a fill at various prices, the bigger the order, the bigger the variance.
What I really meant tho was that our system varies to a degree especially regarding the money management aspect.
  • #336
  • Apr 8, 2020 4:25am Apr 8, 2020 4:25am
There are bullish market participants and bearish market participants in relation to the current quote.
Official market participants are those with open buy or sell limit or stop orders.
Such open limit or stop buy or sell orders count favours one side of the current price, therefore unbalanced.

None of these market participants are buyers or sellers until their open orders are executed.

Buyers and sellers are matched equally for every one of their individual transaction.
It's always balanced for executed transaction.
Know what you trade
  • #337
  • Apr 8, 2020 4:28am Apr 8, 2020 4:28am
The imbalance is in PRICE, or perceived value. So really it doesn't matter if there is equal lots on both sides, the value of those orders differ. Which equals the same result as having an imbalance or buyers vs sellers.

This imbalance is what causes the market to move up or down...

This thread has derailed deviated from the mean.
It has become a place to discuss the pitfalls of forex trading, for losers. I really wish people here would stay on topic and try and debate the point of the thread which is that forex is random, which it is not, even the OP of the thread admits that so honestly this conversation is over. If you want to discuss a different topic then you should create a separate thread regarding that topic. That is the point of having a topical thread on a forum in general.

Not trying to be mean, but if a thread becomes cluttered it no longer provides value to anyone reading it. This is the problem with most threads on here.

The point has been proven. Forex is not random. The end. Anything else discussed regarding forex in this thread is off topic and has no value to this debate.
  • #338
  • Apr 8, 2020 4:43am Apr 8, 2020 4:43am
Quoting viptrading
The imbalance is in PRICE, or perceived value. So really it doesn't matter if there is equal lots on both sides, the value of those orders differ. Which equals the same result as having an imbalance or buyers vs sellers. This imbalance is what causes the market to move up or down... This thread has derailed deviated from the mean. It has become a place to discuss the pitfalls of forex trading, for losers. I really wish people here would stay on topic and try and debate the point of the thread which is that forex is random, which it is not, even...
I would like to agree that forex is not random because if it is, there is no point to anyone of us to continue trading anymore as it's a negative sum game due to the commisions.

Can you please point where you say that the point has been proven? Too much irrelevant posts here.
  • #339
  • Apr 8, 2020 4:56am Apr 8, 2020 4:56am
Quoting CrocodileRex
{quote} I would like to agree that forex is not random because if it is, there is no point to anyone of us to continue trading anymore as it's a negative sum game due to the commisions. Can you please point where you say that the point has been proven? Too much irrelevant posts here.
I have already. If you go back and read my original posts you will see my points on why it is not possible for Forex to be defined as a random walk.
Basically, Forex is a marketplace, that moves based on perceived VALUE between buyers and sellers. Just like any other marketplace there is an asset being traded for an agreed price, and the price decreases or increases based on volume in two directions, either up or down.

Most of the time trying to understand this value is extremely difficult, and building a bias to trade in the right direction is not easy to do in most cases, this is what leads people to lose money and then claim crazy theories like "Forex is random" or a zero sum game that is impossible to win etc.

If you look at a recent and obvious example, OIL recently halved in value this year. That was not a random event. With the proper access to information, one could have profited massively from this downward move (decrease in value) of OIL.

That is just on obvious example, and like I said, the obvious trades do not happen very often, which is what makes trading very difficult to do. The best way to trade honestly is to wait for these types of opportunities, but that is only really possible to do with a large amount of capital, since you can afford to sit on your hands and wait for the easy trades to come when they do.

For most retail traders though, they choose to trade frequently, and that is why they lose more often than not, since it is hard to predict price movements when traded frequently and for short periods of time.
  • #340
  • Apr 8, 2020 5:01am Apr 8, 2020 5:01am
Quoting viptrading
{quote} I have already. If you go back and read my original posts you will see my points on why it is not possible for Forex to be defined as a random walk. Basically, Forex is a marketplace, that moves based on perceived VALUE between buyers and sellers. Just like any other marketplace there is an asset being traded for an agreed price, and the price decreases or increases based on volume in two directions, either up or down. Most of the time trying to understand this value is extremely difficult, and building a bias to trade in the right direction...
Random has two qualities.
1. Independent, and
2. Unbiased.

Provide the math proof pls.
Know what you trade
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