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Forex is random

  • #281
  • Apr 7, 2020 12:47pm Apr 7, 2020 12:47pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Even thou it is hard to prove conclusively that forex is random. It is however easier to theorize that it is, than that it isn't. You can look at my randomly generated charts for reference.
why is it easier to theoretize that it is? for it to be truly random it would need to be the result of a randomness generating process (as your chart). we know that markets/prices are not the result of a randomness generating process.
randomness means that you can not give a reason (state the cause) why something is x and not y. this is not the case for markets. we know that every single tick in the market is caused by something and that there is a strict, deterministic relation between cause and effect.
it only looks random, that is why your random generated charts look the same.
  • #282
  • Apr 7, 2020 12:56pm Apr 7, 2020 12:56pm
Quoting karuner
Again: it seems most people are not able to comprehend the simple difference between "looks random to me" and "is random in itself". The whole thread does not contain one argument that shows, that markets – be it forex or stocks or any other market – actually are random in themselves.
//----

hey karuner...... kinda thought you did..... and kinda thought you did it well..... included your quote below.....

to me, if something can be drawn perfectly by a formula applied to past coordinates , it is not random..... it is predicable..... all sorts of straight lines, circles, ellipse, those neat looking geometric type designs... and it should an exact match every time....

to me, it seems markets are quite random in their manner to get where they are going..... included my quote below.....

to me, any forex chart on any time frame reminds me of a beagle puppy sniffing out something.... left, right, up, down, fast, slow, stop and scratch.... yawn and sleep....

to me, price always seems to be sniffing out for the balance where the spread sets neatly between the next available buyer and next available seller.....

all i have at my disposal is past history price charts and neat looking indicators applied to them..... judging from my results, that's enough.....

my thoughts were just my thoughts..... and i enjoy reading others.....h



//-----
Quoting karuner
Often, when people speak of "random" it is not clear, what exactly they mean as regards markets and charts. The mathematical idea of "Random Walk" may not be applied here without certain constraints. Charts are "random" only in the sense that you can not deduce prices from earlier prices by using purely mathematical/logical methods.
//-----
Quoting hayseed
as far as random goes..... to me, it seems markets are quite random in their manner to get where they are going..... that's not a negative..... that's a positive...... we can use that randomness to our favor.....
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #283
  • Apr 7, 2020 1:13pm Apr 7, 2020 1:13pm
Quoting hayseed
it seems markets are quite random in their manner to get where they are going
yes, but even that is not truly random. every single tick is determined by some market actor clicking buy or sell. they have reasons for this. even if they are clicking wildly without thinking, it is not truly random, because their clicking is determined by their bodies, what happens in their brains at that moment, their muscles etc etc .

so yes, this randomness you describe is there - but it is only in your mind, because you do not (can not) know all factors that are determining the price behavior. it looks random to you (to us) because you do not (can not) have all relevant information to see through this pseudo-randomness..
  • #284
  • Apr 7, 2020 1:35pm Apr 7, 2020 1:35pm
Quoting karuner
{quote} yes, but even that is not truly random. every single tick is determined by some market actor clicking buy or sell. they have reasons for this. even if they are clicking wildly without thinking, it is not truly random, because their clicking is determined by their bodies, what happens in their brains at that moment, their muscles etc etc . so yes, this randomness you describe is there - but it is only in your mind, because you do not (can not) know all factors that are determining the price behavior. it looks random to you (to us) because...
Show us Evidence. I have already written upwards that we are not here for empty talks. For me the chart is just like a drunkard walking down a street.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #285
  • Apr 7, 2020 1:39pm Apr 7, 2020 1:39pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Show us Evidence. I have already written upwards that we are not here for empty talks. For me the chart is just like a drunkard walking down a street.
evidence? evidence for what exactly? and please explain what could possibly count as evidence for you. a picture? a mathematical formula? a description of how the chart you see on your screen has come to your screen?
i fully believe that for you "the chart is just like a drunkard walking down a street". you should not trade in this case. but please be aware of this: just because you don't see something, it does not mean that it is not there. or just because you are blind for something, that does not mean that others are blind too.
  • #286
  • Apr 7, 2020 1:52pm Apr 7, 2020 1:52pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Show us Evidence. I have already written upwards that we are not here for empty talks. For me the chart is just like a drunkard walking down a street.
by the way, i had actually already given you the one central argument to refute your wrong conception. here it is again, in a more explicit form:
the charts on your scree are not "random" because a non-random process can not generate true randomness. the underlying reality that produces the chart on your screen is a non-random process.
we do not even know if there is anything like true randomness in the whole f-ing universe. but "i can't make sense of what i see on my screen, therfore it's chaotic". come on.
  • #287
  • Apr 7, 2020 1:58pm Apr 7, 2020 1:58pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Even thou it is hard to prove conclusively that forex is random. It is however easier to theorize that it is, than that it isn't. You can look at my randomly generated charts for reference.
I provided multiple facts to try and show you that the market does not behave randomly, because that is not how the market works. Your theories and comparisons mean nothing when compared to the truth.

Forex prices move due to economic events and perceived value, holders and new buyers, currency dumpers or new sellers contribute to make the market move. That is how it works. Maybe the problem is that you spend to much time looking at 1 minute charts zoomed in all the way to see the big picture.
  • #288
  • Apr 7, 2020 3:10pm Apr 7, 2020 3:10pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Show us Evidence. I have already written upwards that we are not here for empty talks. For me the chart is just like a drunkard walking down a street.
I have provided evidence several times on FF, on other threads and in my journal. It's not worth the effort anymore. Your view of the market makes you a dangerous trader, for you and anyone who counts on you for financial security (please refer to Mingary's extensive work on his magical recovery fund). I've referred to the GBP/$ 4H chart as an excellent example of what I'm talking about. It screams movement by intent and design. If you seen a drunkards footsteps, you should find never trade the forex again. Best wishes. And really, as Mingary about his rescue fund...it's brilliant!
  • #289
  • Apr 7, 2020 3:36pm Apr 7, 2020 3:36pm
Quoting AmmaBoss
Pretty easy to prove the market is not random, using any block chart the chances of a sell or buy block should be roughly 50% at any given moment if the market is random. similar to flipping a coin at any given moment the % of heads or tails would be 50%. So If I open my chat and use .5 pip blocks the chances of 19 red or white blocks in a row should be super low to be exact it has would have a .00004 % chance of occurring per set of 19 blocks. Yet I can open my chart and see that this occurred less than 5 mins ago and there's a maximum of 1000...
the bigger the block the less trend you ll see and vice versa
  • #290
  • Apr 7, 2020 4:03pm Apr 7, 2020 4:03pm
Quoting viptrading
{quote} I provided multiple facts to try and show you that the market does not behave randomly, because that is not how the market works. Your theories and comparisons mean nothing when compared to the truth. Forex prices move due to economic events and perceived value, holders and new buyers, currency dumpers or new sellers contribute to make the market move. That is how it works. Maybe the problem is that you spend to much time looking at 1 minute charts zoomed in all the way to see the big picture.
Many traders like myself do not need to be aware of the bigger picture to make money out of forex. We follow the order flow watching passive orders been hunted down with aggression then jump in at the extreme exhaustion points. I traded EURJPY quite a lot last night and couldn’t even tell you what the price was, didn’t even pay attention to whether it was bullish or bearish.
I don’t need to be aware of any FA other than looking at speed of the market, size of the last candle and how big the recent series of candles are measured in pips. Traders here often claim they understand how the market works but I doubt they are actually aware on how the market changes direction often in an event that last just one quarter of a second. That event switches the order flow to the other side and volume is not the obvious answer.
I am talking about the one transaction that turns the direction but they try to hide it where possible.

Cheers Rick

PS. I clocked up 90 pips last night on EJ, can anyone tell me if it finished bullish or bearish because I can’t be bothered looking.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #291
  • Apr 7, 2020 4:17pm Apr 7, 2020 4:17pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Many traders like myself do not need to be aware of the bigger picture to make money out of forex. We follow the order flow watching passive orders been hunted down with aggression then jump in at the extreme exhaustion points. I traded EURJPY quite a lot last night and couldn’t even tell you what the price was, didn’t even pay attention to whether it was bullish or bearish. I don’t need to be aware of any FA other than looking at speed of the market, size of the last candle and how big the recent series of candles are measured in pips....
You are talking about order flow trading. In that case price is irrelevant but you still are using some sort of strategy to enter your trades. You can make money doing that I am sure, even though it's not personally my style it works for many people I am sure.

Even this type of order flow trading that you do proves the market isn't random. Since you are looking to follow the volume and make a profit by riding the momentum of other market participants. You have an understanding of how the market moves and use that knowledge to turn a profit.
  • #292
  • Apr 7, 2020 4:52pm Apr 7, 2020 4:52pm
Who is logged into my Mt4 account?

Is there any way for me to be able to see how many devices are logged onto my mt4 account?

Or to see who else has had access to my mt4 account apart from me

I strongly suspect that someone else has had access to my account
  • #293
  • Edited 5:40pm Apr 7, 2020 5:24pm | Edited 5:40pm
Quoting viptrading
{quote} You are talking about order flow trading. In that case price is irrelevant but you still are using some sort of strategy to enter your trades. You can make money doing that I am sure, even though it's not personally my style it works for many people I am sure. Even this type of order flow trading that you do proves the market isn't random. Since you are looking to follow the volume and make a profit by riding the momentum of other market participants. You have an understanding of how the market moves and use that knowledge to turn a profit....
Correct - although volume doesn’t start a move, it just creates momentum ensuring volume follows through later.

I see the market is ONLY about order flow as seen on M1 or M2, higher times are just about levels to me. My point is all trends start in that quarter of a second event and can end in 15 minutes or can create a major market Move that could end in reversal two years later.
It all starts and ends at the core of price so why not try to master the engine room.

Cheers Rick
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #294
  • Apr 7, 2020 5:28pm Apr 7, 2020 5:28pm
Quoting AmmaBoss
Pretty easy to prove the market is not random, using any block chart the chances of a sell or buy block should be roughly 50% at any given moment if the market is random. similar to flipping a coin at any given moment the % of heads or tails would be 50%. So If I open my chat and use .5 pip blocks the chances of 19 red or white blocks in a row should be super low to be exact it has would have a .00004 % chance of occurring per set of 19 blocks. Yet I can open my chart and see that this occurred less than 5 mins ago and there's a maximum of 1000...
We all know there are pocket of non randomness in the markets. The problem is they don't repeat with any consistency. Therefore a non random event doesn't mean ability to profit.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #295
  • Apr 7, 2020 5:39pm Apr 7, 2020 5:39pm
Quoting Ladybird101
Who is logged into my Mt4 account? Is there any way for me to be able to see how many devices are logged onto my mt4 account? Or to see who else has had access to my mt4 account apart from me I strongly suspect that someone else has had access to my account
Create a separate thread for this.
  • #296
  • Apr 7, 2020 5:43pm Apr 7, 2020 5:43pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} We all know there are pocket of non randomness in the markets. The problem is they don't repeat with any consistency. Therefore a non random event doesn't mean ability to profit.
Honestly you really do have it backwards. There are pockets of randomness in the market which cannot be predicted, because they are caused by participants who make illogical trading decisions. However, the market as a whole and the major moves are not random at all, and can 100% be predicted with repeated success if you study and learn.
  • #297
  • Apr 7, 2020 6:26pm Apr 7, 2020 6:26pm
Quoting viptrading
{quote} Honestly you really do have it backwards. There are pockets of randomness in the market which cannot be predicted, because they are caused by participants who make illogical trading decisions. However, the market as a whole and the major moves are not random at all, and can 100% be predicted with repeated success if you study and learn.
Again I agree with a lot you write but let’s not talk about 100% repeated success. The aim should just be to end with a higher equity than you started with on each session. That’s every session if you trade on M1, by the end of the month on higher time frames, by the end of the year if you trade Algo’s. Many traders achieve 85% plus win rates like myself but I also have a EA that only wins 45% of trades but still makes a profit every year.
We can Wear a high win rate like a badge if we like but I bloody make sure I end with a profit in any way I can.

Cheers Rick
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #298
  • Apr 7, 2020 6:30pm Apr 7, 2020 6:30pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Again I agree with a lot you write but let’s not talk about 100% repeated success. The aim should just be to end with a higher equity than you started with on each session. That’s every session if you trade on M1, by the end of the month on higher time frames, by the end of the year if you trade Algo’s. Many traders achieve 85% plus win rates like myself but I also have a EA that only wins 45% of trades but still makes a profit every year. We can Wear a high win rate like a badge if we like but I bloody make sure I end with a profit in any...
When I said 100% I was not referring to win rate. I meant that it 100% is possible. There is no doubt in my mind that it is possible to profitably trade with repeated success, if I had any doubts I would not be 100% confident making trading decisions. Of course, I know that not every trade will end profitably, not even asset managers can achieve that level of success...

That being said though, trading frequently is not advisable if what you are looking for is a high win rate. If you want a high rate of success with your trades, you should take fewer trades, and hold for longer periods of time.
  • #299
  • Apr 7, 2020 7:25pm Apr 7, 2020 7:25pm
Quoting viptrading
{quote} When I said 100% I was not referring to win rate. I meant that it 100% is possible. There is no doubt in my mind that it is possible to profitably trade with repeated success, if I had any doubts I would not be 100% confident making trading decisions. Of course, I know that not every trade will end profitably, not even asset managers can achieve that level of success... That being said though, trading frequently is not advisable if what you are looking for is a high win rate. If you want a high rate of success with your trades, you should...
Keep dreaming, you will wake up one day thou. hope not too late. your results are not enough to encourage your skeptism. We all went though the stage you are in now.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #300
  • Apr 7, 2020 7:31pm Apr 7, 2020 7:31pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Keep dreaming, you will wake up one day thou. hope not too late. your results are not enough to encourage your skeptism. We all went though the stage you are in now.
What are you on about? When did I discuss my results with you? I simply said that it is 100% possible, not that you can profit from 100% of your trades...

Once again, you are just adding no actual facts to your posts. Just assumptions and negativity. Maybe one day you will wake up and realize trading is not meant for pessimists.
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