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Forex is random

  • #261
  • Apr 6, 2020 12:05pm Apr 6, 2020 12:05pm
Quoting GoldTheHun
{quote} Very smart Mingary... The link you shared is excellent. I will copy paste some excerpts... I would recommend everyone to read these: "if asset prices in the short term show an identifiable pattern, speculators will find this pattern and exploit it, thereby eliminating it.." "The buyer believes in a probable rise, without which he would not buy, but if he buys, there is someone who sells to him and this seller believes a fall to be probable. From this it follows that the market taken as a whole considers the mathematical expectation of all...
I find it extremely funny that you do not see the obvious clues in this statement on how to trade profitably.
  • #262
  • Apr 6, 2020 12:09pm Apr 6, 2020 12:09pm
All this talk about Forex being a "zero sum game" or a "random walk", is honestly ridiculous and this type of thinking has no real value to anyone who wishes to pursue trading as a career, or to supplement their income.

1. Forex is not a zero sum game like a casino, that is a fact, I will not get into the reasons why unless someone really wants to know but facts are facts, Forex is not a zero sum game. It is only a zero sum game if you trade randomly with no plan.

2. Forex is not a random walk, because there are real people and real orders going in every moment in the market which cause it to move, that is a simple fact, a random walk does not work in this way.

Honestly this is just a losers mentality and anybody who views the market in this way is doomed to fail because they do not understand how the market works in the first place.
  • #263
  • Edited 1:23am Apr 7, 2020 12:04am | Edited 1:23am
Quoting smikester
{quote} If you ever answer a question truthfully, or in an amusing way, you may earn my respect. But I sincerely doubt it. Upset? By you? I have better things to concern myself with.
So Mr. Ad Hominem who said "Bye Mingary" not too long ago...
What is your question then ?
  • #264
  • Apr 7, 2020 12:33am Apr 7, 2020 12:33am
Quoting viptrading
All this talk about Forex being a "zero sum game" or a "random walk", is honestly ridiculous and this type of thinking has no real value to anyone who wishes to pursue trading as a career, or to supplement their income. 1. Forex is not a zero sum game like a casino, that is a fact, I will not get into the reasons why unless someone really wants to know but facts are facts, Forex is not a zero sum game. It is only a zero sum game if you trade randomly with no plan. 2. Forex is not a random walk, because there are real people and real orders going...
"This type of thinking has no real value to anyone who wishes to pursue trading as a career, or to supplement their income. "
The map is not the territory
..........
Even though I do agree that it is possible to extract some money from the retail forex market on occasion, it is not sustainable long term.
"if asset prices in the short term show an identifiable pattern, speculators will find this pattern and exploit it, thereby eliminating it.."

1) it is a less than zero sum game due to transaction cost. In that respect, it's worse than a casino. that is a fact.

2) It is a random walk when you consider that price is the result of an action / reaction (for every buyer, there must be a seller ..), the real orders are the input, price is the output.
"The buyer believes in a probable rise, without which he would not buy, but if he buys, there is someone who sells to him and this seller believes a fall to be probable. From this it follows that the market taken as a whole considers the mathematical expectation of all transactions and all combinations of transactions to be null."
  • #265
  • Apr 7, 2020 12:49am Apr 7, 2020 12:49am
Quoting smikester
{quote} If you ever answer a question truthfully, or in an amusing way, you may earn my respect. But I sincerely doubt it. Upset? By you? I have better things to concern myself with.
Mingary has a backstory with Forex. Learn his story and you maybe will understand his crusade.

I do not have same experience as I am on the other side but I know how he got there. No one can change Mingary mind but Mingary
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #266
  • Apr 7, 2020 1:29am Apr 7, 2020 1:29am
[quote=viptrading;12860868]Forex is not a zero sum game. It is only a zero sum game if you trade randomly with no plan.

How you trade does not impact whether it is a zero sum game.....you need to look up what Zero sum means..
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #267
  • Edited 2:21am Apr 7, 2020 2:07am | Edited 2:21am
Quoting smikester
{quote} That is completely meaningless. Did you take it out of context? You may as well say someone finds an apple tree and then the whole village comes along and eats the apples. So what?
Quoting smikester
{quote} Similarly, this is nonsense. The buyer believes in a probable rise - OK. There is someone who will sell to him (at a higher price). The seller does not necessarily believe a fall is probable, he makes his money from the transaction and the price can go up further. Either: 1. You believe in a load of bollokcs. or 2. You are winding me up. (Mingary will be relieved to see this post - it proves his existence) Please tell me it's No. 2?
Truly, I don't know where to begin. I don't mean any disrespect but I suggest you find and read an "Auction market 101" text book.
  • #268
  • Apr 7, 2020 3:31am Apr 7, 2020 3:31am
Quoting newbegger
{quote} Mingary has a backstory with Forex. Learn his story and you maybe will understand his crusade. I do not have same experience as I am on the other side but I know how he got there. No one can change Mingary mind but Mingary
Thanks Newbegger.
Gone to a better place
  • #269
  • Apr 7, 2020 5:43am Apr 7, 2020 5:43am
Quoting GoldTheHun
{quote} Very smart Mingary... The link you shared is excellent. I will copy paste some excerpts... I would recommend everyone to read these: "if asset prices in the short term show an identifiable pattern, speculators will find this pattern and exploit it, thereby eliminating it.."
they are not eliminating the pattern in general, but the concrete instance of the pattern and they are making money by this. if they don't play it, the pattern will be there again. for example, arbitrage. the opportunity for arbitrage has not simply disappeared just because someone did arbitrage once. the opportunity is there and it's played all the time.
and this effect of disappearance by exploitation is not the case for every kind of pattern. some patterns seem to be even reinforced by speculators.

Quote
"The buyer believes in a probable rise, without which he would not buy, but if he buys, there is someone who sells to him and this seller believes a fall to be probable. From this it follows that the market taken as a whole considers the mathematical expectation of all transactions and all combinations of transactions to be null."
the problem with this description is that there is no such thing as the "market taken as a whole" that could "consider" anything. there are only individual actors who consider things, and some of them are right and some are wrong.
  • #270
  • Apr 7, 2020 6:13am Apr 7, 2020 6:13am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} "This type of thinking has no real value to anyone who wishes to pursue trading as a career, or to supplement their income. " The map is not the territory .......... Even though I do agree that it is possible to extract some money from the retail forex market on occasion, it is not sustainable long term. "if asset prices in the short term show an identifiable pattern, speculators will find this pattern and exploit it, thereby eliminating it.." 1) it is a less than zero sum game due to transaction cost. In that respect, it's worse than a...
"The map is not the territory"
The territory is not the map. You create your own map. Maps.

"Even though I do agree that it is possible to extract some money from the retail forex market on occasion, it is not sustainable long term."
Your opinion is irrelevant when speaking on facts. Your ability to personally extract profits from this market have nothing to do with whether or not it is possible to succeed long term for someone else.

"if asset prices in the short term show an identifiable pattern, speculators will find this pattern and exploit it, thereby eliminating it.."
This one is my favorite. Speculators cannot change the way the market moves, it is literally impossible. This statement is also not backed by any facts, and it simply another negative way of looking at things.

"1) it is a less than zero sum game due to transaction cost. In that respect, it's worse than a casino. that is a fact."
Forex is NOT a zero sum game. Transaction cost has nothing to do with it. Forex is not a "game" its a market. Learn the difference. I will be posting more on this in another response.

"2) It is a random walk when you consider that price is the result of an action / reaction (for every buyer, there must be a seller ..), the real orders are the input, price is the output."
Honestly, this makes 0 sense. The fact that there are people behind transactions, for example investors or holders of a specific currency. Proves that the resulted price is not due to a random walk. It is the result of perceived value, or lack of value that causes the price to move. That is not random, and that is a fact.

"The buyer believes in a probable rise, without which he would not buy, but if he buys, there is someone who sells to him and this seller believes a fall to be probable. From this it follows that the market taken as a whole considers the mathematical expectation of all transactions and all combinations of transactions to be null."
No. That is not how this works. You are not understanding the differences in opinion that traders and investors may have which allows freedom of position for oneself. You are not bound to any time frame in which you must hold your position, so because of this, both traders on either side of a trade may win depending on what their personal goals are for that trade. That is not a zero sum game. This is a market. When you go to the grocery store and buy an apple from them is that a zero sum game because you took one apple and they lost that apple? No. Its a fucking market, not a roulette table.
  • #271
  • Apr 7, 2020 6:16am Apr 7, 2020 6:16am
[quote=axecap;12861893]
Quoting viptrading
Forex is not a zero sum game. It is only a zero sum game if you trade randomly with no plan. How you trade does not impact whether it is a zero sum game.....you need to look up what Zero sum means..
No. You need to understand the difference between a zero sum game and a free market. How I trade and the fact that I can make my own rules in trading, I can hedge, I can hold multiple positions, etc. Is the difference between a free market and a zero sum game.

https://www.fxstreet.com/education/l...x-200902190000
  • #272
  • Apr 7, 2020 6:21am Apr 7, 2020 6:21am
https://www.agf.com/ca/en/insights/m...o-sum-game.jsp

Please read this and understand that real traders do not look at it as a game. They look at it as an investment which has the potential to provide a return, and they take trading very seriously. They base their trading decisions on economic factors, and they do not gamble.

Honestly everyone here who believes that forex is "random" or a "zero sum game" is the result of them losing money because they do not understand how the market works, and how to trade properly. Because of this they choose to believe that their losses are the result of the "game" being rigged, when in fact they lost because of their lack of knowledge, and understanding. That is a fact.

You cannot create facts to make you feel better about losing. That is not beneficial for anyone, and all it does is make you feel better about losing. "If I lose money, then surely everyone must lose money". No, how about you try to take it on the chin and learn WHY you lost, instead of thinking you know everything already...
  • #273
  • Apr 7, 2020 10:18am Apr 7, 2020 10:18am
Quoting viptrading
https://www.agf.com/ca/en/insights/m...o-sum-game.jsp Please read this and understand that real traders do not look at it as a game. They look at it as an investment which has the potential to provide a return, and they take trading very seriously. They base their trading decisions on economic factors, and they do not gamble. Honestly everyone here who believes that forex is "random" or a "zero sum game" is the result of them losing money because they do not understand...
I appreciate your efforts here, and completely agree with your positions. Mingary and Mingary-thinking posters on FF will never see what you are saying. They are quick to copy quotes from books that were written about the stock market trading, the bond market trading, etc., to prove their thinking about/experiences in trading the FOREX, which of course, is completely different from stocks, bonds, etc. It blows my mind that they don't get it. I've suggested that people spend their time studying macro economics, international macro economics, international banking, and international finance, rather than researching non-relevant financial and trading data in an attempt to explain their losses in the FOREX. Think about that for a minute: they find a quote from someone who has a lifetime of experiences buying and selling stocks, and extrapolates that into their experience in losing in an entirely different market and financial product, because the market dynamics and analysis of trading Amazon is exactly like a banker buying the GBP/$? So, these are people who don't understand the nature of the FOREX, and seemingly any aspect of the nature of the FOREX. My message to anyone who is interested in learning to trade the FOREX has always been, and continues to be: study the topics that are relevant to the FOREX market (which is equivalent to getting and MBA in International Finance and Economics). FOREX trading is not about reading charts, it's about knowing what the hell is going on in the world. Focus you life on becoming a trader, not bitching about your trades. Again, thanks for your posts and good trading to you!
  • #274
  • Apr 7, 2020 10:40am Apr 7, 2020 10:40am
Quoting viptrading
https://www.agf.com/ca/en/insights/m...o-sum-game.jsp Please read this and understand that real traders do not look at it as a game. They look at it as an investment which has the potential to provide a return, and they take trading very seriously. They base their trading decisions on economic factors, and they do not gamble.
Quoting GEfx
My message to anyone who is interested in learning to trade the FOREX has always been, and continues to be: study the topics that are relevant to the FOREX market (which is equivalent to getting and MBA in International Finance and Economics). FOREX trading is not about reading charts, it's about knowing what the hell is going on in the world. Focus you life on becoming a trader, not bitching about your trades. Again, thanks for your posts and good trading to you!
How many traders base their trades on economic factors to the level of "equivalent to getting an MBA in International Finance and Economics" ?

I'm not against fundamental analysis just stating the reality.

Most GAMBLE by your definition.
Take a look at the active interactive threads and that huge active trading systems thread.
Hundreds of followers *facepalm*
And many members claim to be profitable.
Know what you trade
  • #275
  • Apr 7, 2020 11:06am Apr 7, 2020 11:06am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} {quote} How many traders base their trades on economic factors to the level of "equivalent to getting an MBA in International Finance and Economics" ? I'm not against fundamental analysis just stating the reality. Most GAMBLE by your definition. Take a look at the active interactive threads and that huge active trading systems thread. Hundreds of followers *facepalm* And many members claim to be profitable.
You are quite right, and that is why the message from this thread and Mingary is so toxic.

So, do the work - and yes 10 years studying Forex can be the equivalent to an MBA. Not only that but because factors are constantly changing, we have to constantly review our approach.
Gone to a better place
  • #276
  • Apr 7, 2020 11:09am Apr 7, 2020 11:09am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} {quote} How many traders base their trades on economic factors to the level of "equivalent to getting an MBA in International Finance and Economics" ? I'm not against fundamental analysis just stating the reality. Most GAMBLE by your definition. Take a look at the active interactive threads and that huge active trading systems thread. Hundreds of followers *facepalm* And many members claim to be profitable.
Yes. And, that is precisely the issue with most traders.
  • #277
  • Apr 7, 2020 11:17am Apr 7, 2020 11:17am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} {quote} How many traders base their trades on economic factors to the level of "equivalent to getting an MBA in International Finance and Economics" ? I'm not against fundamental analysis just stating the reality. Most GAMBLE by your definition. Take a look at the active interactive threads and that huge active trading systems thread. Hundreds of followers *facepalm* And many members claim to be profitable.
Please go back and read my post, and consider the part about aspects of the nature of the FOREX. There are 10s of thousands of bank traders throughout the world today, and nearly all of them have the equivalent of an MBA in finance, international economics, etc. (and likely strong math backgrounds, and strong IT backgrounds). In addition, the FOREX people at, for example, the US Federal Reserve and the US Treasury, all have advanced degrees and advanced knowledge. Same for the bank's FOREX trading management team, etc. So, one aspect of the nature of the FOREX is that all the people who are making decisions on buy/sell are smarter than you, if you lack the basic foundation of knowledge that they have, you are at a big disadvantage, and everyone in my trading group has this level of knowledge. So, yes, you mentioned something about reality, and the reality of the retail forex market is that nearly everyone lacks basic FA capabilities, and in their minds, they just discount its importance and assume it's "funny analysis" or some such shit. If someone doesn't have an advanced degree, they could at least acknowledge this deficiency and attempt a work-around solution, rather than blame random markets and bad brokers. It seems to me that most people here blame their broker for their losses and failure, when in fact they have just failed in their attempt to follow the activities of bank traders, having never considered the importance of understanding the bank trading business. Good trading BWilliam.
  • #278
  • Apr 7, 2020 11:30am Apr 7, 2020 11:30am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} If someone doesn't have an advanced degree, they could at least acknowledge this deficiency and attempt a work-around solution, rather than blame random markets and bad brokers.
Good post.
Gone to a better place
  • #279
  • Apr 7, 2020 11:33am Apr 7, 2020 11:33am
Again: it seems most people are not able to comprehend the simple difference between "looks random to me" and "is random in itself". The whole thread does not contain one argument that shows, that markets – be it forex or stocks or any other market – actually are random in themselves.
  • #280
  • Apr 7, 2020 12:25pm Apr 7, 2020 12:25pm
Quoting karuner
Again: it seems most people are not able to comprehend the simple difference between "looks random to me" and "is random in itself". The whole thread does not contain one argument that shows, that markets – be it forex or stocks or any other market – actually are random in themselves.
Even thou it is hard to prove conclusively that forex is random. It is however easier to theorize that it is, than that it isn't. You can look at my randomly generated charts for reference.
When you see it, BET big.
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