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Forex is random

  • #241
  • Apr 6, 2020 4:44am Apr 6, 2020 4:44am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Very disingenuous, if you understand the carry trade as you say you do. The Yen carry trade went on for years. You are making something that was very simple sound complicated or difficult. The Yen carry trade of the early 2000's I chose because it is the simplest fundamental analysis to understand. Long Usd/Jpy was a "No-brainer" because of interest rate differential and swap profits. Here's a link: https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/g...n-carry-trade/ I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say you still don't understand...
1) The Yen carry trade went on for years.

It sure did, yes. How does that prove that anyone benefited from it ? Where are the yen carry trade millionaires (: ?
I can tell you what really happened: an epic debacle of a massive culling of the retail forex carry trade herd

2)"You say "The broker I was using charged an obscene amount on the swap". That was the carry trade unwinding, Mingary. It might be time for you to learn a bit about currency trading before you state your made up facts."

I meant this is happening now.. Retail brokers are free to charge as much swap as they choose. They tend to advertise "low spread" and / or "low commission" and they charge an enormous amount in swap - both ways.
Sneaky little devils (:
  • #242
  • Apr 6, 2020 5:08am Apr 6, 2020 5:08am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} 1) The Yen carry trade went on for years. It sure did, yes. How does that prove that anyone benefited from it ? Where are the yen carry trade millionaires (: ? I can tell you what really happened: an epic debacle of a massive culling of the retail forex carry trade herd 2)"You say "The broker I was using charged an obscene amount on the swap". That was the carry trade unwinding, Mingary. It might be time for you to learn a bit about currency trading before you state your made up facts." I meant this is happening now.. Retail brokers are...
Mine doesn't. I accept, also, there is a fee for trading, providing a service and the administration and risk involved. They are allowed to profit from their work. Some may be sneaky little devils, as you so spitefully put it. These boards and threads are where we can swap ideas with other traders.

From the evidence you have provided so far it is clear to me you have a very mixed up approach to this business. I would like to know are you some sort of religious evangelist, puritan perhaps? Tell me more. How much did you lose? What is your mission?
Gone to a better place
  • #243
  • Apr 6, 2020 5:17am Apr 6, 2020 5:17am
And before anyone else posts on this nonsensical thread "Forex is Random" take a look at this chart, especially the last 8 weeks, and the ATR (average true range) indicator. What could have caused this? Is it just random volatility? I hope this draws the thread to a close, especially for those who believe currency movement is random because they have not done their studying. Take a look at the history books of currency. Do the work instead of being part of the internet epidemic of ignorance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UsdJpy200406W1.png Size: 30 KB
Gone to a better place
  • #244
  • Apr 6, 2020 6:08am Apr 6, 2020 6:08am
Quoting smikester
And before anyone else posts on this nonsensical thread "Forex is Random" take a look at this chart, especially the last 8 weeks, and the ATR (average true range) indicator. What could have caused this? Is it just random volatility? I hope this draws the thread to a close, especially for those who believe currency movement is random because they have not done their studying. Take a look at the history books of currency. Do the work instead of being part of the internet epidemic of ignorance. {image}
Looks efficient and quite "brownian" to me (: ...

Here is an introduction that hopefully will peak your interest so you can do some study:

https://medium.com/cantors-paradise/...s-ea5f02204b14
  • #245
  • Apr 6, 2020 6:11am Apr 6, 2020 6:11am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Mine doesn't. I accept, also, there is a fee for trading, providing a service and the administration and risk involved. They are allowed to profit from their work. Some may be sneaky little devils, as you so spitefully put it. These boards and threads are where we can swap ideas with other traders. From the evidence you have provided so far it is clear to me you have a very mixed up approach to this business. I would like to know are you some sort of religious evangelist, puritan perhaps? Tell me more. How much did you lose? What is your...
religious evangelist, puritan ... not sure I follow, but it sounds interesting in the context of our discussion. Can you elaborate ?
  • #246
  • Apr 6, 2020 6:17am Apr 6, 2020 6:17am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Looks efficient and quite "brownian" to me (: ... Here is an introduction that hopefully will peak your interest so you can do some study: https://medium.com/cantors-paradise/...s-ea5f02204b14
The word is "pique".
Gone to a better place
  • #247
  • Apr 6, 2020 6:19am Apr 6, 2020 6:19am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} religious evangelist, puritan ... not sure I follow, but it sounds interesting in the context of our discussion. Can you elaborate ?
Smoke screen. Your argument is broken. I'll give you one virtue - persistence. Don't ask me what I think of you. Bye Mingary.
Gone to a better place
  • #248
  • Edited 8:11am Apr 6, 2020 7:54am | Edited 8:11am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Smoke screen. Your argument is broken. I'll give you one virtue - persistence. Don't ask me what I think of you. Bye Mingary.
1) Not a smoke screen. Smoke screen for what exactly ? Smoke screen on your part? Ok then.
2) Not broken. To say that it is does not make it so.

Quoting smikester
{quote} The word is "pique".
3) Yes "pique" ! - I stand corrected.

... I am being generous here but only 1 response is somewhat valid.
That is all you have to say on the subject ? You seem to omit the "study" part when you are concerned!

Oh well, just traipsing along in retaill forex fantasy and enjoying the sights.
Hint: Random or not it does not matter.
  • #249
  • Apr 6, 2020 8:08am Apr 6, 2020 8:08am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} 1) Not a smoke screen. Smoke screen for what excatly ? Smoke screen on your part? Ok then 2) Not broken. To say that it is does not make it so. {quote} 3) Yes "pique" ! ... only 1 response is valid but that is all you have to say on the subject ? You seem to omit the "study" part when you are concerned! Oh well ...
Wow! You don't give up do you? I do not need to study Brownian motion. A weak effort on your part to deflect me.

Yes, a smoke screen. I asked you a pertinent question. Instead of answering it you gave me questions. How would you describe answering a question with a question? Try to answer, please.

It seems that you are allowed to make opinions as facts. Your argument is broken. I also believe you do not belong here, other than perhaps to try to annoy London traders who may well be better versed in the good things in life than yourself. Purely my opinion! So, why would I wish to continue? Try to answer please...
Gone to a better place
  • #250
  • Apr 6, 2020 8:22am Apr 6, 2020 8:22am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Wow! You don't give up do you? I do not need to study Brownian motion. A weak effort on your part to deflect me. Yes, a smoke screen. I asked you a pertinent question. Instead of answering it you gave me questions. How would you describe answering a question with a question? Try to answer, please. It seems that you are allowed to make opinions as facts. Your argument is broken. I also believe you do not belong here, other than perhaps to try to annoy London traders who may well be better versed in the good things in life than yourself. Purely...
What is your pertinent question ?
(from my viewpoints, I only see opinions as facts on your part as well, showing a price chart and saying it's not random is rather silly, don't you think ?)
  • #251
  • Apr 6, 2020 8:25am Apr 6, 2020 8:25am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} What is your pertinent question ? (from my viewpoints, I only see opinions as facts on your part as well, showing a price chart and saying it's not random is rather silly, don't you think ?)
Let's leave it there. Ross Edwards thinks you talk bollokcs and I'm rather inclined to agree with him. He can put it so politely, too.

Here's your reminder:

Quoting RossEdwards
{quote} Oh dear what a pity we can never have the opportunity to sit with a nice bottle of claret and discus all this. I feel Id enjoy that.. and have a laugh.. love your outrageous idiosyncratic outlook. But in the meanwhile can I characterise your answer as B*ll*x? Cheers.
Gone to a better place
  • #252
  • Apr 6, 2020 8:26am Apr 6, 2020 8:26am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Looks efficient and quite "brownian" to me (: ... Here is an introduction that hopefully will peak your interest so you can do some study: https://medium.com/cantors-paradise/...s-ea5f02204b14
Very smart Mingary...
The link you shared is excellent. I will copy paste some excerpts... I would recommend everyone to read these:

"if asset prices in the short term show an identifiable pattern, speculators will find this pattern and exploit it, thereby eliminating it.."

"The buyer believes in a probable rise, without which he would not buy, but if he buys, there is someone who sells to him and this seller believes a fall to be probable. From this it follows that the market taken as a whole considers the mathematical expectation of all transactions and all combinations of transactions to be null."
  • #253
  • Edited Apr 7, 2020 12:12am Apr 6, 2020 8:37am | Edited Apr 7, 2020 12:12am
Quoting GoldTheHun
{quote} Very smart Mingary... The link you shared is excellent. I will copy paste some excerpts... I would recommend everyone to read these: "if asset prices in the short term show an identifiable pattern, speculators will find this pattern and exploit it, thereby eliminating it.." "The buyer believes in a probable rise, without which he would not buy, but if he buys, there is someone who sells to him and this seller believes a fall to be probable. From this it follows that the market taken as a whole considers the mathematical expectation of all...
Yes, someting like that (:
At least one person is getting it.
  • #254
  • Edited 8:56am Apr 6, 2020 8:40am | Edited 8:56am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Let's leave it there. Ross Edwards thinks you talk bollokcs and I'm rather inclined to agree with him. He can put it so politely, too. Here's your reminder: {quote}
I don't mean to upset, but logic is logic, facts are facts and something is or is not (unless you are that cat in the box .. ) (;
  • #255
  • Apr 6, 2020 9:28am Apr 6, 2020 9:28am
Quoting GoldTheHun
{quote} "if asset prices in the short term show an identifiable pattern, speculators will find this pattern and exploit it, thereby eliminating it.."
In your mind, is the identifiable pattern the result of undirected, random actions?
  • #256
  • Apr 6, 2020 9:29am Apr 6, 2020 9:29am
Quoting GoldTheHun
{quote} Very smart Mingary... The link you shared is excellent. I will copy paste some excerpts... I would recommend everyone to read these: "if asset prices in the short term show an identifiable pattern, speculators will find this pattern and exploit it, thereby eliminating it.." "The buyer believes in a probable rise, without which he would not buy, but if he buys, there is someone who sells to him and this seller believes a fall to be probable. From this it follows that the market taken as a whole considers the mathematical expectation of all...
It really looks very brownian. This is the reason why people loose and are not even aware why. You loose to commisions and over leveraged trading. I still leave some room open, there might be a hidden order or pattern. Hidden from most people because if it weren't we will all be exploiting it thereby eliminating it.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #257
  • Apr 6, 2020 10:30am Apr 6, 2020 10:30am
Quoting Rennaissance
It really looks very brownian. This is the reason why people loose and are not even aware why. You loose to commisions and over leveraged trading. I still leave some room open, there might be a hidden order or pattern. Hidden from most people because if it weren't we will all be exploiting it thereby eliminating it.
Ofc it's hidden.
Better to think of it as don't exist.
Know what you trade
  • #258
  • Apr 6, 2020 10:47am Apr 6, 2020 10:47am
Quoting GoldTheHun
{quote} "if asset prices in the short term show an identifiable pattern, speculators will find this pattern and exploit it, thereby eliminating it..""
That is completely meaningless. Did you take it out of context? You may as well say someone finds an apple tree and then the whole village comes along and eats the apples. So what?
Gone to a better place
  • #259
  • Apr 6, 2020 11:09am Apr 6, 2020 11:09am
Quoting GoldTheHun
{quote} "The buyer believes in a probable rise, without which he would not buy, but if he buys, there is someone who sells to him and this seller believes a fall to be probable. From this it follows that the market taken as a whole considers the mathematical expectation of all transactions and all combinations of transactions to be null."
Similarly, this is nonsense. The buyer believes in a probable rise - OK. There is someone who will sell to him (at a higher price). The seller does not necessarily believe a fall is probable, he makes his money from the transaction and the price can go up further.

Either:

1. You believe in a load of bollokcs.

or

2. You are winding me up. (Mingary will be relieved to see this post - it proves his existence)

Please tell me it's No. 2?
Gone to a better place
  • #260
  • Apr 6, 2020 11:28am Apr 6, 2020 11:28am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} I don't mean to upset, but logic is logic, facts are facts and something is or is not (unless you are that cat in the box .. ) (;
If you ever answer a question truthfully, or in an amusing way, you may earn my respect. But I sincerely doubt it. Upset? By you? I have better things to concern myself with.
Gone to a better place
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