Pivot Trading

price is ranging but making higher lows. I see this with a higher probability of breaking out to the upside so would wait for the breakout and trade the pullback long.
S78 is also providing strong support area so definitely more of a chance of a push higher. Based on this level, one could also get long before waiting for the breakout.
There was also a pretty strong bullish candle on H4 through the S78 that also provides some insight for a long.

Terry

Price got back below 8ema with it turning below the 20ema after rejection at R38 and now below pivot, so I expect price to continue down. Could either get short at the current level or wait for a lower timeframe retrace to get short. Target down to S38 initially but would consider it to go even further down.

I would watch for PA at the pivot to confirm price direction and get long or short depending on action in that area. Considering the higher timeframes are down, I would expect a further down move from the pivot.

This chart tells me that a short term resistance level has been established at at S61 zone and 117.30 , decent support has been established at S78 zone.
No trade for me at he moment. Possibly could be a "U shaped" bottom forming.
I would go long once resistance is cleared above S61 at approx. 117.65-117.70 area.
I would go short once the spike low is cleared.
Wait and see approach for me.
GE

Short for me on this chart.
Strong downtrend has been established and a sizeable pullback has already occurred.
Good push through the WPP , continuing the downtrend.
PA has cleared resistance of the last large uptrend candle.
TP target , S61 zone.
GE

Short time frame. No trade at this time.
After the current support level is breached near .8780 zone , I would be short this trade.
TP would be at S61.
GE

I would watch PA and look for a retracement to clear short term resistance just above WPP and target R38 long. If R38 is reached , I would enter short back down to WPP for TP area.
Strong support just below WPP. Probability to breach it would be very difficult.

With all of these scenario's I would be looking to sell into resistance and buy into support. I prefer at least a 15 minute time frame during these current market conditions.

Excellent exercise Davit , thanks.
Looking forward to your analysis as you would deal with these scenario's.
GE

This is a fun idea! Here goes ... just going off charts and ignoring any fundamentals;

E/J : Its in consolidation right now, and has trouble breaking 117.300-ish, has bounced off there 3 times. Given higher highs and that price is between S78 and S61 I would watch for a breakout long and then buy in after a bar has closed above the new 21 EMA we have.

A/U : Daily and long term trend is down, last retracement almost reached the 61.8 fib of the last major swing and also bounced off R38. Hopefully I would already be selling this from the R38 bounce, but PA is showing strong sell even now and price is below the 21 EMA, would probably look to get out at S38.

E/G : can't see the long term trend from M15 so hard to judge the overall trend, higher highs and unable to break DOL below S61 suggests to look for longs, however current couple of bars are bearish and long tail on current bar suggests strong bearish, so no trade right now although would keep an eye on it for longs if it bounces North off S61.

A/N : if you look left there is quite a lot of resistance from 27th-30th and again on 2nd Apr, if it breaks south through all this and the weekly pivot I would guess its going to keep going. Hopefully I would have been shorting from R38 already, but if not then if it breaks through WP should be good for a short as ADR has not been reached anyway and tomorrows redrawn ADR will give show plenty of room South.

I initially determined this pair was not worth trading using my pivot charts with moving averages but when I looked at the naked chart I changed my opinion.

I would wait for price to retrace to S61 and get long with PA in that area

After looking at this pair with just naked charts and pivots my opinion is get short on any time frame and ride down to first target of S38.
The only downside is that this pair is a slow mover.

Buy the dips
Ranging

Sell

BUY

Close trades.

#Davit,

Also one must consider news events +/- impact, past or future when considering any trade. For me even being aware of my calendar events is sometimes still difficult to trade.

Lets say there is news in two days that shows positive and we are in SUPPORT,
Do one look left and buy (FOMO),
Do one wait till after the news.

And a killer is those multi day news event. When does one trade, after all the days events, OR on the day the news is in your favor?
For me the month since the corona hit was the baddest as I took on heavy losses Now FOMO is my worst enemy.
All of a sudden it feels like I'm knowing noting about trading.
I know I must adapt and I'm struggling with that do not know why.


Regards,

I left settings unchanged since I downloaded it, yes it makes sense, now changed to 5.

This is what I see on USDCAD,

Hi guys
I'll post what I think about the exercise later today to give others a chance to participate.Remember there is no real right or wrong answers only probabilities.
There is a random distribution of winners and losers.What makes more winners then losers is genuine Edge.
To me its revealing how different people interpret same chart differently.We are all different stage in trading development.
Have fun! Trading is immensely fun to me.

Thanks for reminding me to refresh myself so spend good chunk of the day listing audio book while cooking and doing chores in my backyad
Brilliant book.Every chapter is Aha moment.How relevant is chapter when he talks about the fear of losing....

[/highlight]
Read the book again.
"Most investors believe they know what is going to happen next. This causes traders to put too much weight on the outcome of the current trade, while not assessing their performance as a probability game that they are playing over time. This manifests itself in investors getting in too high and too low and causing them to react emotionally, with excessive fear or greed after a series of losses or wins."

Fear of Losing
The fear of losing when making a trade often has several consequences. Fear of loss tends to make a timer hesitant to execute his or her timing strategy. This can often lead to an inability to pull the trigger on new entries as well as on new exits.
As a market timer, you know that you need to be decisive in taking action when your strategy dictates a new entry or exit, so when fear of loss holds you back from taking action, you also lose confidence in your ability to execute your timing strategy. This causes a lack of trust in the strategy, or more importantly, in your own ability to execute future signals.
For example, if you doubt you will actually be able to exit your position when your strategy tells you to get out, then as a self-preservation mechanism, you will also choose not to get into a new trade. Thus begins analysis paralysis, where you are merely looking at new trades but not getting the proper reinforcement to pull the trigger. In fact, the reinforcement is negative and actually pulls you away from making a move.
Looking deeper at why a timer cannot pull the trigger, a lack of confidence causes the timer to believe that by not trading, he is moving away from potential pain as opposed to moving toward future gain.
No one likes losses, but the reality is, of course, that even the best professionals will lose. The key is that they will lose much less, which allows them to remain in the game, both financially and psychologically. The longer you can remain in the trading game with a sound timing strategy, the more likely you will start to experience a better run of trades that will take you out of any temporary trading slumps.
When you're having trouble pulling the trigger, realize that you are worrying too much about results and are not focused on your execution process.
By following a strategy that unemotionally tells you when to enter and exit the market, you can avoid the pitfalls caused by fear.
Wealthy traders learned long ago that unemotional (non-discretionary) timing strategies prevent losses during emotional times in the market. They know the strategies work, so they put aside their fears and make the trades.
And remember, you must be able to take a loss. Consider them a part of trading. If you cannot, you will not be around for the big gains because you will be on the sidelines guarding your capital against that potential loss.
Every trade you take has the potential to become a loss, so get used to this reality and take every buy and sell signal. That way, when the next big trend starts, you will be onboard and profit from it."


I lost money good deal like many others on virus spike some on this thread got destroyed by it both financially and mentally some continuing with genuine understanding that plenty of time left to catch up and regain and make profit for the year.
My response has been intense focus on execution and my winning % has gone up exponentially. My attitude is on high gear like I said before 1 spike can't destroy or wipe out 8 years of trading experience! You must trust yourself!

What's life without real challenge?For me to achieve ultimate success in trading is worth pursing despite of adds.At this junction in my life there is no option but success.

My advise to you is reduce position and executive your edge after series of wins you'll get your mojo back.