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Forex is random

  • #181
  • Apr 4, 2020 11:11am Apr 4, 2020 11:11am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} This part I agree with. The reason for the markets are made to look random : {image} and also : {image}
they are not "made to" look like that if by this you mean that the market is a system that is designed intentionally by someone, so that it looks random to others. the randomness we are talking about is a effect of the system and its principles. no one designed this intentionally. there is no central player.

one thing is true: big players do want the traces of their actions to be invisible, i.e. to somehow look random to others (to prevent front running etc.). but that's all. they are also only players who do not control the whole.
  • #182
  • Apr 4, 2020 11:15am Apr 4, 2020 11:15am
[quote=Mingary;12857648]And us humans - the "busy-busy monsters" that we are - must find a reason for those random moves. The reason for a move in the market is always found after the fact,/quote]
//----
this again is not directed at mingary.... my 20-20 after-the-fact reason is he has never answered any of my very polite and respectful questions in the past......
//----

mentioned before about mingary being occasionally correct......

his words above, at least in my case, are true..... to put a sharper point on it, a few days ago i posted my thoughts on the audusd and nzdusd.... few hours later xm posted something similar of forex factory.... a few hours after that, there was that 150 pip spike against me..... it was midnight in australia......?????.....

to me, that was a random move..... but i had money on the line..... it is only proper to feel the need to must find a reason...... random or not..... googled the heck out of the net for hours trying to find any news.... never did..... still don't know why....

responsible traders will feel the need to find out why..... this protects their accounts..... and keeps them on the right side.....


feeling the need to find a reason is nothing to be ashamed of......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #183
  • Apr 4, 2020 11:36am Apr 4, 2020 11:36am
It's great news to read that majority here think that future price is mathematically not predictable from past data. That's the benchmark in retail segment.
Know what you trade
  • #184
  • Apr 4, 2020 11:37am Apr 4, 2020 11:37am
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I was in this trade too. I couldn't find a reason either.
  • #185
  • Edited 12:39pm Apr 4, 2020 11:43am | Edited 12:39pm
Quoting hayseed
Quoting Mingary
.... to put a sharper point on it, a few days ago i posted my thoughts on the audusd and nzdusd.... few hours later xm posted something similar of forex factory.... a few hours after that, there was that 150 pip spike against me..... it was midnight in australia......?????..... to me, that was a random move..... but i had money on the line..... it is only proper to feel the need to must find a reason...... random or not..... googled the heck out of the net for hours trying to find any news.... never did..... still don't know
...


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I did the same... was looking for a reason during that time too... anything published or posted, commented on ...etc. I couldn't find any. But most of the time, I could find a reason(s) out there (I mean, Google usually knows everything)... ; )─ However, for this one, there might be a reason, but not shared or publicly put out there. It doesn't simply mean that if one can't find a reason, it means 100% no reason at all. And therefore, it was a random price spike. Some technical analysts would find a reason(s) from any sort of thing in hindsight─easy peasy, such as support/resistance or demand & supply thingy ─wherein buyers or sellers reacting aggressively... or even see patterns or shapes, cycles, etc.. Hayzzz the endless list of finding reasons, they just don't have access to a news site to put out or share their opinion or reason ; )─ Now... with the advent of HFT systems, or probably due to a fat finger kind of thing... for that I quote:

"According to the Law of Cause and Effect, every effect must have a cause. In other words, everything that happens has a catalyst; everything that came into being has something that caused it. Things don't just happen by themselves" ─Ray Comfort
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #186
  • Apr 4, 2020 11:47am Apr 4, 2020 11:47am
Quoting karuner
{quote} they are not "made to" look like that if by this you mean that the market is a system that is designed intentionally by someone, so that it looks random to others. the randomness we are talking about is a effect of the system and its principles. no one designed this intentionally. there is no central player. one thing is true: big players do want the traces of their actions to be invisible, i.e. to somehow look random to others (to prevent front running etc.). but that's all. they are also only players who do not control the whole.
Sorry for not being clear, maybe using the term "made to look like" seems to imply only one central player. It is not, some of the biggest banks already are manipulating prices to fill their clients orders and at a better profit than the market would give them. They profit from the commissions & their own speculation.

The business (profit) model of the large banks hasn't changed. The profit is always largest at the top tier.

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It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #187
  • Apr 4, 2020 12:01pm Apr 4, 2020 12:01pm
Quoting hayseed
Quoting Mingary
And us humans - the "busy-busy monsters" that we are - must find a reason for those random moves. The reason for a move in the market is always found after the fact,/quote] //---- this again is not directed at mingary.... my 20-20 after-the-fact reason is he has never answered any of my very polite and respectful questions in the past...... //---- mentioned before about mingary being occasionally correct...... his words above, at least in my case, are true..... to put a sharper point on it, a few days ago i posted my thoughts
...
This type of high speed look back flashes occur regularly on all time frames. This one is a h4 tf that explains for the large magnitude. It's seen on all Aussie pairs.
Know what you trade
  • #188
  • Apr 4, 2020 12:25pm Apr 4, 2020 12:25pm
Quoting herewardwake
{image} I was in this trade too. I couldn't find a reason either.
It is no coincidence that AudUsd spiked up, positioning and stop hunting by the big boys. These are regular occurrences before market swings and trendy conditions. Not referring to you, but I wish that all participants here can steer away from the market being random. The market works in cycles, irrespective of news. This is why I steer away from news. We always get the word, already priced in when fundamentals don't work for the currency, and so forth. All hogwash in my opinion.
The market does what it has to and moves up and down in cycles. I follow these moves. If a cycle creates higher lows and highs and so forth we are in an uptrend and vice versa. We have to look at the big picture at all times and if we fail that, the smaller time frames become random.

Hope I can shed light into randomness.
Cheers.
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Trade to trade another day
  • #189
  • Apr 4, 2020 12:58pm Apr 4, 2020 12:58pm
so let’s not forget the main problem.
if you go up you can go even higher.
if you go down you can go even lower.
  • #190
  • Apr 4, 2020 1:15pm Apr 4, 2020 1:15pm
Quoting tiborf71
so let’s not forget the main problem. if you go up you can go even higher. if you go down you can go even lower.
I don't see it as a problem but a blessing if you are following the big picture.

Cheers.
Trade to trade another day
  • #191
  • Apr 4, 2020 1:18pm Apr 4, 2020 1:18pm
Quoting tiborf71
so let’s not forget the main problem. if you go up you can go even higher. if you go down you can go even lower.
therefore, the market cannot be considered cyclical.
  • #192
  • Apr 4, 2020 1:21pm Apr 4, 2020 1:21pm
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} therefore, the market cannot be considered cyclical.
Oh Crumbs, here we go again. Just saw you come off suspension and you are back at your same old tricks. Good luck Tibor in your endeavors.
Trade to trade another day
  • #193
  • Apr 4, 2020 1:25pm Apr 4, 2020 1:25pm
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Oh Crumbs, here we go again. Just saw you come off suspension and you are back at your same old tricks. Good luck Tibor in your endeavors.
in professional matters I see no point in talking to you.
  • #194
  • Apr 4, 2020 1:27pm Apr 4, 2020 1:27pm
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} in professional matters I see no point in talking to you.
Nope, please don't
Trade to trade another day
  • #195
  • Apr 4, 2020 2:49pm Apr 4, 2020 2:49pm
...What did I miss here? ... Is this random? ...There must be a reason, LoL!

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I may need to un-ignored all on my list so I won't miss a thing next time... ; )─ cool FF feature though.
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #196
  • Apr 4, 2020 3:02pm Apr 4, 2020 3:02pm
Quoting v2vboni
However, for this one, there might be a reason, but not shared or publicly put out there. It doesn't simply mean that if one can't find a reason, it means 100% no reason at all. And therefore, it was a random price spike.
//-----

hey v2v..... that was my final take on it also.... prior to the spike i had maybe 6 open short orders total in all accounts..... expert advisors alerted me to it...... time spent looking for why, allowed the price to fall considerably..... that's ok.....

150 pip spikes at 1:00 am australia time are somewhat rare..... a few lines of mq4 can put an exact number on it.... when nothing to justify it was found, it wrote it off as random....

far more important, my lot size was well prepared..... additionally i took proper time to look for a reason before making any moves..... money management and due diligence......

of course they will be those that disagree with our beliefs...... that's ok also.... i for one truly appreciate them speaking up.....

cause who knows, i might be wrong...... and have no trouble admitting it.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #197
  • Apr 4, 2020 4:55pm Apr 4, 2020 4:55pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} I rejected the idea of sweet spot before, but I might have been wrong. Looking further in your preposition. Thanks for your contribution
I’m guilty of taking your thread off topic in a personal squabble...sorry. I’ve posted a lot in my journal regarding some of this. I won’t go into any detail here, and I’m not sure this relates to random/non random, but there is structure in the market, and a definite narrative that goes with structure. Understanding structure, and following the narrative, brings clarity to the charts. I pointed to the G$ as an excellent example of what I’m talking about. Good trading!
  • #198
  • Apr 4, 2020 9:00pm Apr 4, 2020 9:00pm
A spike is a non random action we all agree. The problem is how to develop a method to take advantage of it consistently. They certainly don't repeat in a similar fashion. Even if it is an inefficiency, it's a one time thing.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #199
  • Apr 4, 2020 10:11pm Apr 4, 2020 10:11pm
Quoting Rennaissance
A spike is a non random action we all agree. The problem is how to develop a method to take advantage of it consistently. They certainly don't repeat in a similar fashion. Even if it is an inefficiency, it's a one time thing.
Without the information that leads to the non-random spike the best I can do is manage my position sizes and hope that the tornado doesn't wreck my house.
  • #200
  • Apr 4, 2020 11:42pm Apr 4, 2020 11:42pm
Quoting herewardwake
{image} I was in this trade too. I couldn't find a reason either.
There was a reason for that spike and the one on the previous day as well but you need to trade with a historical mindset.

We are trading on an old battlefield that is scarred from previous price action, one that has two major hidden gaps.

I suggest you revisit February 1999 and March 2003 to see what happen.

A gap can be visible or hidden and can be filled with ease but a vacuum zone is a gap that may never be filled - The Algorithm isn't smart enough to know the difference.
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
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