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  • #3,301
  • Feb 18, 2020 4:06am Feb 18, 2020 4:06am
GBP

very shocking for claimant count!

this show significant increase employment!

so nevertheless GBP will be the bull run for this week!!

althought earnings drop, but the GBP still in bull mood..

have to see next data whether the earnings increase, if not, the market too saturated....

at the end, will hit the CPI,

keep in view
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  • #3,302
  • Feb 18, 2020 4:10am Feb 18, 2020 4:10am
EURGBP

as chart show price coming to lowest level 0.83, whatever happen here I am sure there is fierce fight between bull and bear

with current weak EURO, it is very easy target for bear...

GBP must provide some concrete reason in order to break this multiyear low since 2016...

let us see the fight!!!

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  • #3,303
  • Feb 18, 2020 4:18am Feb 18, 2020 4:18am
AUD

this is the worse hit ccy since the virus outbreak...when the economy getting recovery?

what I see now from the data, I can expect very low since mid of last year...

Beware we will see the bear rushing into this ccy...

with this low expectation, RBA should be very tough to maintain current situation..

what do we expect soon?

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  • #3,304
  • Feb 18, 2020 4:23am Feb 18, 2020 4:23am
let's analysis a little bit this very useful hints!

I expect the FED will slowly reduce the 'heli money'

slowly fund will lose appetite on risk market...

if anybody have the figure, please share with me!


keep in view!
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  • #3,305
  • Feb 24, 2020 5:50am Feb 24, 2020 5:50am
GBPUSD

short

H4
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  • #3,306
  • Feb 26, 2020 4:38am Feb 26, 2020 4:38am
EURUSD

Daily

Long
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  • #3,307
  • Feb 26, 2020 4:47am Feb 26, 2020 4:47am
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  • #3,308
  • Feb 26, 2020 4:51am Feb 26, 2020 4:51am
Expectations that the Fed will cut rates at least 25 basis points at its June meeting were at 79.5% on Tuesday, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. The same tool shows a 4.0% chance that rates will be at the current 150-175 basis point range in December, down from 28.6% a month ago.
Against a basket of other currencies the dollar slipped 0.375% to 98.956, after reaching a three-year high of close to 100 last week. However, without good news on the virus, few expect the dollar to give back much of its recent gains.
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  • #3,309
  • Mar 28, 2020 6:54pm Mar 28, 2020 6:54pm
GBPJPY

there is highly pullback until the price making wedge pattern.

how long the bull can maintain this pattern?

What if the price making to downside tomorrow?
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  • #3,310
  • Mar 28, 2020 7:01pm Mar 28, 2020 7:01pm
CADJPY


from weekly tf, clearly the bear can't pass through the 76 barrier. Eventually price making a nice 2 rejection candle.

which is why in daily price making sideways nicely around that area.

With the current rate cut to 0.25%, the market well supported and the rush for CAD will be stop for awhile.

any progress/development in oil war price will make CAD become more volatile...which make CAD double whipped very soon.
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  • #3,311
  • Mar 28, 2020 7:10pm Mar 28, 2020 7:10pm
EURUSD

this is clearly the price making expanded pattern which is very tough to trade...WHy?

mainly this news driven pair...as we can see, now the bull take charge up and of course it will continue up too for short term,..

the sharp drop really mainly due to USD panic shortage but now FED had flooded with all USD into financial market

making the rushing for USD has stopped for a while.

Remember that the price already making lower low, so basically the down trend is still intact,

bias mix, short term is long position...
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  • #3,312
  • Mar 28, 2020 7:32pm Mar 28, 2020 7:32pm
Very unprofessional way to handle such a huge crisis ahead!!!1

Trump advisor Larry Kudlow admits he was wrong about coronavirus being ‘contained’
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  • #3,313
  • Mar 28, 2020 7:32pm Mar 28, 2020 7:32pm
Quoting Monokl
CADJPY from weekly tf, clearly the bear can't pass through the 76 barrier. Eventually price making a nice 2 rejection candle. which is why in daily price making sideways nicely around that area. With the current rate cut to 0.25%, the market well supported and the rush for CAD will be stop for awhile. any progress/development in oil war price will make CAD become more volatile...which make CAD double whipped very soon. {image} {image}
Hi Monoki, nice to see you back. love your charts. Nice bullish engulf GJ Wkly. But perhaps safer trading LTF atm. Cheers
  • #3,314
  • Apr 4, 2020 12:16am Apr 4, 2020 12:16am
New Zealand
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  • #3,315
  • Apr 4, 2020 12:20am Apr 4, 2020 12:20am
In foreign exchange markets, large repatriation flows had supported the yen, and the US dollar had appreciated against most other currencies. Members observed that the Australian dollar had depreciated against the US dollar by around 10 per cent over the preceding month, to be at its lowest level since 2002. Among other advanced economies, the exchange rates of commodity exporters such as Norway, Canada and New Zealand had also depreciated notably. Capital flight had been evident across emerging markets, with exchange rates depreciating against the US dollar and sovereign bond yields moving sharply higher.

In response to these developments, a number of major central banks had made sizable interest rate reductions at unscheduled meetings. The Federal Reserve had cut its policy rate by 100 basis points after an earlier cut of 50 basis points. The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand had each lowered policy rates to ¼ per cent, and interest rates were lower than this in Japan and Europe.
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  • #3,316
  • Apr 4, 2020 12:23am Apr 4, 2020 12:23am
The Bank of England, acting as agent for the UK Treasury, had announced that it would purchase unlimited amounts of commercial paper issued by non-financial firms with an investment grade credit rating. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank had expanded funding schemes to encourage banks to lend to businesses. There had also been an easing of bank regulatory requirements in many countries.

The Federal Reserve had also lowered the cost and extended the terms of foreign currency borrowing through foreign exchange swap lines. This was designed to alleviate the very high demand for US dollars from non-US entities that had issued debt in US dollars that needed to be refinanced.
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  • #3,317
  • Apr 4, 2020 12:32am Apr 4, 2020 12:32am
AUSTRALIA

The Reserve Bank will also continue to provide liquidity to Australian financial markets by conducting one-month and three-month repo operations in its daily market operations until further notice. In addition, the Bank will conduct longer-term repo operations of six-month maturity or longer at least weekly, as long as market conditions warrant.

Members supported the proposal and agreed that the cash rate would not be increased from its lower level until progress is made towards full employment and there is confidence that inflation will be sustainably within the 2–3 per target cent range. Given this, it was considered likely that the cash rate would remain at a very low level for an extended period. Members also agreed that the cash rate was now at its effective lower bound. Members had no appetite for negative interest rates in Australia. [IMPORTANT]


agreed on a package of measures, comprising four elements, namely:

  1. a reduction in the cash rate to 0.25 per cent
  2. a target of 0.25 per cent for the yield on 3-year Australian government bonds
  3. a term funding facility to support credit to businesses, particularly small and medium-sized businesses
  4. an adjustment to the interest rate, to be 10 basis points, on ES balances held by financial institutions at the Bank.

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  • #3,318
  • Apr 4, 2020 12:44am Apr 4, 2020 12:44am
AUDUSD

this is very distract price.. price already reach to those financial crisis period year.

With the current aggreasive monetary policy, could RBA to sustain the level here?

most importantly with current unlimited bazooka from FED, we assume USD will weaken...

only can help now is to settle the Covid-19 crisis as soon as possible...

my opinion is whatever stimulus is for sustain the shocking wave for financial only...
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  • #3,319
  • Edited 1:49am Apr 4, 2020 1:36am | Edited 1:49am
EURUSD

Weekly, clearly the bear still in control

Daily, price making some rebounce around 1.077

still have chance to see the reaction around that area!

rebounce trading next week

so we can see EURO is more stronger generally compare to AUD..

under tension situation currently, AUD will be highly impacted worse
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  • #3,320
  • Apr 15, 2020 5:57am Apr 15, 2020 5:57am
GOLD

Bias SHORT

H1 timeframe, making head and shoulder
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