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Forex is random

  • #141
  • Apr 3, 2020 10:26pm Apr 3, 2020 10:26pm
I seem to see times when prices go parabolic. How predictable this is, is still under investigation. It might just be random noise. This parabolic .moves dont happen on the random data. But still struggling building a methodology around this.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #142
  • Apr 3, 2020 10:28pm Apr 3, 2020 10:28pm
But we can all agree that given how close to random this thing is. The more often you trade the more likely you will loose. I guess there might be 1 or two occurences of non random movement in a month. If you trade every day, every week, you are bound to loose money. This is quite clear to me.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #143
  • Apr 3, 2020 10:51pm Apr 3, 2020 10:51pm
Quoting Rennaissance
But we can all agree that given how close to random this thing is. The more often you trade the more likely you will loose. I guess there might be 1 or two occurences of non random movement in a month. If you trade every day, every week, you are bound to loose money. This is quite clear to me.

There is no such thing as RANDOM in life. Randomness in non existent. For every effect there must be a cause so there is no way things can be random, you just cope with your limited perception trying to explain it as "random" same as people who think they suffer because of god, sin - they just do not know the cause, do not know the way, they are unable to realize cause for it. People who are successful in the market can realize cause for price to go this way or that way and there is CAUSE for everything but many of those CAUSES are out of our perception but it does not make it random because you do not know something.
  • #144
  • Apr 3, 2020 10:58pm Apr 3, 2020 10:58pm
Quoting kodakwhite
{quote} There is no such thing as RANDOM in life. Randomness in non existent. For every effect there must be a cause so there is no way things can be random, you just cope with your limited perception trying to explain it as "random" same as people who think they suffer because of god, sin - they just do not know the cause, do not know the way, they are unable to realize cause for it. People who are successful in the market can realize cause for price to go this way or that way and there is CAUSE for everything but many of those CAUSES are out of...
Exactly, the greater the knowledge the keener and wider the perception the lesser the randomness vv.
Know what you trade
  • #145
  • Apr 3, 2020 11:47pm Apr 3, 2020 11:47pm
A lot of talk, empty talk. No facts, no data. I f you don't have anything to show claims please this forum is not for you.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #146
  • Apr 4, 2020 12:00am Apr 4, 2020 12:00am
Quoting Rennaissance
I seem to see times when prices go parabolic. How predictable this is, is still under investigation. It might just be random noise. This parabolic .moves dont happen on the random data. But still struggling building a methodology around this.
Good point.
These are called "outliers" in a random time series. They are an integral part of the random time series.
This is very important.
Here is a primer:
https://dailyreckoning.com/the-riddle-of-the-nile/
  • #147
  • Edited 12:26am Apr 4, 2020 12:12am | Edited 12:26am
Quoting Rennaissance
But we can all agree that given how close to random this thing is. The more often you trade the more likely you will loose. I guess there might be 1 or two occurences of non random movement in a month. If you trade every day, every week, you are bound to loose money. This is quite clear to me.
I trade, every single day.
Sometimes taking 5+ trades a day, I trade on an extremely small timeframe so transaction cost eats up 60%-70% of my profits.
Despite this, however, I am currently on 167% profit with drawdown never exceeding 20%, Despite losing 50% of my accounts earlier on due to the crash which occurs 2weeks ago.
If the market was random statistically my accounts would have received a margin call already due to the high transaction cost.
If you actually want proof to message me and I will allow you to view my TE for a "" brief "" moment.
  • #148
  • Apr 4, 2020 12:21am Apr 4, 2020 12:21am
Quoting Rennaissance
Back to the topic. Has anyone found anything to disprove the fact that markets are random?
You have not proved markets are random.

Old tricks you are using at so young an age. Are you a used car salesman?
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #149
  • Apr 4, 2020 12:29am Apr 4, 2020 12:29am
It's just not possible to make money in a non-random market.
But random does not mean that it's not sequential.
i.e. "price excursion"
  • #150
  • Apr 4, 2020 12:36am Apr 4, 2020 12:36am
Quoting Rennaissance
But we can all agree that given how close to random this thing is. The more often you trade the more likely you will loose. I guess there might be 1 or two occurences of non random movement in a month. If you trade every day, every week, you are bound to loose money. This is quite clear to me.
You are saying you have no idea where the markets are going next. I do believe you in that you are stating you are clueless on how the trade operates and cannot believe you can ever find the clue.

So, Why are you wasting time here?
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #151
  • Apr 4, 2020 12:40am Apr 4, 2020 12:40am
Quoting newbegger
{quote} You are saying you have no idea where the markets are going next. I do believe you in that you are stating you are clueless on how the trade operates and cannot believe you can ever find the clue. So, Why are you wasting time here?
Trying to find someone that can prove me otherwise. A big part of me doesn't want to quit, cause I have believed in this thing for far too long.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #152
  • Apr 4, 2020 12:48am Apr 4, 2020 12:48am
Quoting newbegger
{quote} You have not proved markets are random. Old tricks you are using at so young an age. Are you a used car salesman?
I have shown a couple of charts, can you tell the difference between them and a real chart. If you can point it out.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #153
  • Apr 4, 2020 12:50am Apr 4, 2020 12:50am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Trying to find someone that can prove me otherwise. A big part of me doesn't want to quit, cause I have believed in this thing for far too long.
You have too many hurdles to overcome. Not saying is impossible by many tears and years. How long will it take to undo your attitude about forex? As a veteran, my advise is to find your pot of gold elsewhere
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #154
  • Apr 4, 2020 12:50am Apr 4, 2020 12:50am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Trying to find someone that can prove me otherwise. A big part of me doesn't want to quit, cause I have believed in this thing for far too long.
Here's a thought that you should consider. The notion of where price movement is going is random in both speed, timing and direction. I agree its random.
However there is objectives the Algo is trying to achieve through this random action.
The moves entice traders into open positions by offering visual patterns on charts like pullbacks, resistance zones, wedges etc., many are fake.

Its random action to entice TREND traders into the market to set up a trap.
Its not random action for Mean Reversion Traders who are looking to enter the market at Target Zones.

The point of difference is important. It is only possible to make sense of random action when price arrives at a target indicated using historical volatility data.
We should know the history of its mechanical movements by plotting a pairs moves on to a spread sheet (not for lazy traders of course) over a year before just a few may just have their light bulb moment.
What some traders find is a move has a start point that can't be definded, a direction that can't be defined but importantly, an end point which can be defined.
Now we have discovered some data which may offer us as traders a edge, a trade at an end point can be a highly profitable because price has a measurable limit.
In effect, you have just found the CODE and a method to avoid losing trading days.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #155
  • Apr 4, 2020 1:30am Apr 4, 2020 1:30am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Trying to find someone that can prove me otherwise. A big part of me doesn't want to quit, cause I have believed in this thing for far too long.
If you have not found the evidence then quit.
Pls quit right now.

Asking some stranger to provide you evidence is plain nonsense. Why involve other people about your personal decision. Man up make your own decision and bear the responsibity for it.
Know what you trade
  • #156
  • Apr 4, 2020 1:33am Apr 4, 2020 1:33am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} I have shown a couple of charts, can you tell the difference between them and a real chart. If you can point it out.

Do you realize that you want proof for water being wet? Yes there is axiom behind it but nobody will provide you an axiom for non randomness of forex not because it is random but because is beyond people actually. Even the random generated charts you posted are not RANDOM They are generated on the basis of cause and conditions so for your limited brain it was "I click so I think I randomly generated chart" but in reality there is certain causes of why is that like that and like this.
  • #157
  • Apr 4, 2020 1:35am Apr 4, 2020 1:35am
Quoting kodakwhite
{quote} Do you realize that you want proof for water being wet? Yes there is axiom behind it but nobody will provide you an axiom for non randomness of forex not because it is random but because is beyond people actually. Even the random generated charts you posted are not RANDOM They are generated on the basis of cause and conditions so for your limited brain it was "I click so I think I randomly generated chart" but in reality there is certain causes of why is that like that and like this.
It's pseudo random based on the seed. Cause and effect.
Know what you trade
  • #158
  • Apr 4, 2020 1:54am Apr 4, 2020 1:54am
Quoting Rennaissance
But we can all agree that given how close to random this thing is. The more often you trade the more likely you will loose. I guess there might be 1 or two occurences of non random movement in a month. If you trade every day, every week, you are bound to loose money. This is quite clear to me.
It's "lose" not "loose" (;
I am sure you will have noticed, given the replies you are getting, that this subject matter is taboo, or perhaps "to booh" (;
The implication here, is that not only all players fail in retail forex, but also ...

nothing can be done to ever win at this game due to the very nature of the game(;
  • #159
  • Apr 4, 2020 2:00am Apr 4, 2020 2:00am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} It's "lose" not "loose" (; I am sure you will have noticed, given the replies you are getting, that this subject matter is taboo, or perhaps "to booh" (; The implication here, is that not only all players fail in retail forex, but also ... nothing can be done to ever win at this game due to the very nature of the game(;
This is what I know,
If anyone believe he trades with true edge over the market, he trades with a significant all in psychology. No reason not to.
Know what you trade
  • #160
  • Apr 4, 2020 2:09am Apr 4, 2020 2:09am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} I have shown a couple of charts, can you tell the difference between them and a real chart. If you can point it out.

The difference between your random charts and a real chart.......this perhaps may go someway in showing the difference.

A gap on the EURUSD around 21st April 2017 price 1.07776............
Almost 3 years later, the gap was finally closed on 20th February 2020 and price stopped and reversed 700 pips, the price........1.07776
To exactly close a 3 year gap, reverse 700+ pips would be an incredible coincidence if it was a randomly generated chart.

I take the view that we are dealing with a highly controlled Algo..
It's job is to entice traders, institutions, in fact anyone who is not within the market makers inner circle to place stops, orders etc exactly where they want them placed.
Revisiting a zone to clear out stops completes the process and in doing so further stops are then placed ready for collection later.
A never ending process and the market maker is collecting continuously.
Do I know when the stops or targets are going to be collected, nope.
Only that they will.

M.
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