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Forex is random

  • #101
  • Mar 31, 2020 10:21pm Mar 31, 2020 10:21pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Example EU right now, check the chart pls. EU rose to 1.1035 5hours ago. It has sat there for the past 4hrs with small variance less than 5pips. It fell as expected 1 and half hour ago. That's 4hrs of less random segment of the chart. That's an example of less random segment of the market whose variance is limited and quantifiable. A trader who has knowledge of this less random segment of the chart trades with edge or alpha.
Here is the chart pic.

This level is not linear and may not retain it's less random status.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1.png Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.png Size: 15 KB
Know what you trade
  • #102
  • Mar 31, 2020 10:30pm Mar 31, 2020 10:30pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Makes no sense at all. Don't know if you can understand your own statement. How can you profit from random movement. I keep realizing that most forex traders are losing money and don't even understand why they are losing money. How many times will I repeat that you can't make money from a random walk. I wanted a progressive discussion here. But I guess I am at the wrong place. EITHER THE MARKET IS RANDOM or IT ISNT. I believe it isnt , I also believe any inefficiency in price is so well hidden. I wonder if it is even a worthwhile cause ,...
"the overwhelming probabilities are against you"

Absolutely. In any business endeavor, the odds are against you.

80% of new businesses fail in first 18 months
90% of new businesses fail in first 5 years

and according to Inc. magazine,
96% fail within first 10 years.

In this business, you are in the business of speculation. Not for the faint of heart, have to have a warrior mentality.

And I got the prediction on when Mingary and co showing up, almost to the day (pip)
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #103
  • Mar 31, 2020 10:48pm Mar 31, 2020 10:48pm
Quoting RickM
More random, less random / god help me The only action that matters is the order flow of passive orders being consumed on M1 to M2. The Algo was running a liquidity pool on EU and when the passive orders were cleaned out, the next pool of liquidity was elsewhere. Random action or non random action is terms for amauters to waste their precious time worrying about things that don’t matter, professionals are just concerned about order flow and being on the right side of the ledger. The easiest way to trade the order flow is to trade exhaustion on M1...
That gap is an anomaly that appears on your brokers chart. It depends on the quality of the tick data.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EF48101E-EBC7-40DC-9C2C-55346EE253B3.jpeg Size: 545 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ej1.png Size: 13 KB
Know what you trade
  • #104
  • Mar 31, 2020 11:16pm Mar 31, 2020 11:16pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} That gap is an anomaly that appears on your brokers chart. It depends on the quality of the tick data. {image} {image}
Yes, I check three brokers charts at the same time so I compare all three together to get a better idea.
The issue is those candles all have gaps due to the way MT4 shows price action. It fills in the space and pretends there is orders when they are just isn’t. Most wide ranging candles on M1 actually contain more space and the give away is the speed of the movement which creates them. In other words - Hidden gaps.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #105
  • Mar 31, 2020 11:57pm Mar 31, 2020 11:57pm
FOOLED BY RANDMOMNESS, your losses will very quickly disprove whatever you think you have observed. All I hear and see from your graphs is noise. Isolating one example to prove the market is not random is just crazy to me. Where are the trade explorers? I guess there are none. Just like I thought. Trading success is more elusive than most realize or want to accept.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #106
  • Edited 8:30am Apr 1, 2020 5:47am | Edited 8:30am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Here is the chart pic. This level is not linear and may not retain it's less random status. {image} {image}
Okay, thanks for the charts. I understand what you are saying. Good trading!

Edit: In your view of the forex market, what is happening in the less random segments? And what is happening in the more random segments that make the more random segments more random?
  • #107
  • Apr 1, 2020 5:54am Apr 1, 2020 5:54am
Quoting newbegger
{quote} And I got the prediction on when Mingary and co showing up, almost to the day (pip)
LOL...but you have to admit, he's inevitable, like mold on bread or a baby's full diaper. It's just that mold on bread or a baby's full diaper are more welcome events.
  • #108
  • Apr 1, 2020 8:00am Apr 1, 2020 8:00am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} LOL...but you have to admit, he's inevitable, like mold on bread or a baby's full diaper. It's just that mold on bread or a baby's full diaper are more welcome events.
Yea, I knew I was stating the obvious when I predicted the arrival of Mingary. Funny analogies, btw
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #109
  • Apr 1, 2020 11:21pm Apr 1, 2020 11:21pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Makes no sense at all. Don't know if you can understand your own statement. How can you profit from random movement. I keep realizing that most forex traders are losing money and don't even understand why they are losing money. How many times will I repeat that you can't make money from a random walk. I wanted a progressive discussion here. But I guess I am at the wrong place. EITHER THE MARKET IS RANDOM or IT ISNT. I believe it isnt , I also believe any inefficiency in price is so well hidden. I wonder if it is even a worthwhile cause ,...
"EITHER THE MARKET IS RANDOM or IT ISNT." The market is random and it must be if it is meant to function correctly.
Imagine a market in which the price is always going up. Is that random ? Who is going to sell ?
Imagine a market in which the price is always going down. Is that random ? Who is going to buy ?
Look at what happened when the market was not random perhaps 4 or 5 times in the last month. It had to be temporarily shutdown.
You cannot have certainty in the market or it won't work.
Add to this the Law of Averages and a simple Gaussian distribution of traders' performance and you have a model that is very similar to the performance of a random casino game.
The model explains "everything", extreme winners, extreme losers, and especially the fact that "long term" success is impossible (one day your luck runs out)"
But of course, as in any game, one can always try to win.
  • #110
  • Apr 1, 2020 11:24pm Apr 1, 2020 11:24pm
Quoting Rennaissance
FOOLED BY RANDMOMNESS, your losses will very quickly disprove whatever you think you have observed. All I hear and see from your graphs is noise. Isolating one example to prove the market is not random is just crazy to me. Where are the trade explorers? I guess there are none. Just like I thought. Trading success is more elusive than most realize or want to accept.
I am not sure if you read my last reply, so one last time.

If you believe the markets are random, you need to quit trading. You will just be giving your money to me.

I would suggest spending money you would be losing, to the markets, on college education so you can get a higher paying job.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #111
  • Apr 1, 2020 11:39pm Apr 1, 2020 11:39pm
Quoting newbegger
{quote} "the overwhelming probabilities are against you" Absolutely. In any business endeavor, the odds are against you. 80% of new businesses fail in first 18 months 90% of new businesses fail in first 5 years and according to Inc. magazine, 96% fail within first 10 years. In this business, you are in the business of speculation. Not for the faint of heart, have to have a warrior mentality. And I got the prediction on when Mingary and co showing up, almost to the day (pip)
You really need to compare "oranges to oranges" as the saying goes..
Business performance should be compared to business performance
Gambling performance should be compared to gambling performance

A valid research should be to compare retail forex trader's performance to Poker or Black Jack players for exemple.
  • #112
  • Apr 1, 2020 11:44pm Apr 1, 2020 11:44pm
Quoting Mingary
{quote} "EITHER THE MARKET IS RANDOM or IT ISNT." The market is random and it must be if it is meant to function correctly. Imagine a market in which the price is always going up. Is that random ? Who is going to sell ? Imagine a market in which the price is always going down. Is that random ? Who is going to buy ? Look at what happened when the market was not random perhaps 4 or 5 times in the last month. It had to be temporarily shutdown. You cannot have certainty in the market or it won't work. Add to this the Law of Averages and a simple Gaussian...
In the immortal words of Yoda, "And that is why you failed"

A side note, I actually met Luke Skywalker before a movie premiere of The Empire Strikes Back. No Yoda, no Hans Solo, no Lea, No Lando, just Luke. It was a wonderful movie and I had not seen Star Wars so did not know the backstory
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #113
  • Apr 1, 2020 11:49pm Apr 1, 2020 11:49pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Please explain your comment on IB business. I have no idea what you are saying or what you mean. Do you? What I do know, is that you need to lie, because that is your MO. You make stupid statements or claims with no proof or reason. It's just some notion that jumps into, what is usually, your empty head. And what lunch am I defending? Defending from someone the likes of you? That makes me laugh. Finally, I don't know anyone who "feeds" on the retail forex crowds, except you. You are the one who seeks a following of retail forex failures....
I will be speaking to the SEC today about the "magic recovery fund"
But seriously, the fact that you are so aggressive and so much on the defensive, tells me clearly on what side your toast gets buttered .. or "butt hurt" not sure which.
Bad pun, I know.
I will do better next time.
  • #114
  • Edited Apr 2, 2020 12:06am Apr 1, 2020 11:55pm | Edited Apr 2, 2020 12:06am
Quoting newbegger
{quote} In the immortal words of Yoda, "And that is why you failed" A side note, I actually met Luke Skywalker before a movie premiere of The Empire Strikes Back. No Yoda, no Hans Solo, no Lea, No Lando, just Luke. It was a wonderful movie and I had not seen Star Wars so did not know the backstory
"And that is why you failed". What a dumb answer, like listening to a Mozart symphony and the only thing you can think of is "too many notes"
Well call me a pig and roll me in the mud then ..

I am not surprised you see fictional characters in real life. perhaps you should see a doctor. Sorry to tell you "Luke Skywalker" is not a real person.
  • #115
  • Apr 1, 2020 11:57pm Apr 1, 2020 11:57pm
Quoting havo
what is random is the way the data its shown in chart, NOT the market in itself !! learn the difference..
Agree. Will the market be random for an insider watching on the chart, knowing there's going to be a price spike because some important info hits the wires?
  • #116
  • Apr 2, 2020 12:07am Apr 2, 2020 12:07am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} You really need to compare "oranges to oranges" as the saying goes.. Business performance should be compared to business performance Gambling performance should be compared to gambling performance A valid research should be to compare retail forex trader's performance to Poker or Black Jack players for exemple.
Funny, I do go to casinos and play blackjack, pit boss does watch me but so far I have not been ejected but I can tell they do not like me taking their money. I count cards and use basic strategy

However, comparing casinos to trading in the markets is accurate. Casinos win money from the desperate, the greedy, the get rich quick, and the drunkards. Same as the average market maker the casinos are, hmmmm?
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #117
  • Apr 2, 2020 12:18am Apr 2, 2020 12:18am
Quoting newbegger
{quote} Funny, I do go to casinos and play blackjack, pit boss does watch me but so far I have not been ejected but I can tell they do not like me taking their money. I count cards and use basic strategy However, comparing casinos to trading in the markets is accurate. Casinos win money from the desperate, the greedy, the get rich quick, and the drunkards. Same as the average market maker the casinos are, hmmmm?
Agree on something do we...hmmmm ?
  • #118
  • Apr 2, 2020 12:24am Apr 2, 2020 12:24am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} "And that is why you failed". What a dumb answer, like listening to a Mozart symphony and the only thing you can think of is "too many notes" Well call me a pig and roll me in the mud then .. I am not surprised you see fictional characters in real life. perhaps you should see a doctor. Sorry to tell you "Luke Skywalker" is not a real person.
Luke Skywalker was real.

In KB Theatres sometime in the Autumn of 1980, he was real. Mark Hamilton was dressed to sell! But you completely missed the point. My point was you failed at forex because you did not believe you could succeed. If you would accept the blame, that you screwed up, maybe you can get back in the game. I am making bank, over 17% yoy.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #119
  • Apr 2, 2020 12:32am Apr 2, 2020 12:32am
My feeling is that the disagreement is rather semantic here.
I agree with Mingary that the market is never non-random. Otherwise we would all be millionaires, or wait a minute.. perhaps no one then.
However for me there is a difference between a market expressing random characteristics and a purely random walk. The latter one is memory-less and cannot be profited from imho. The first one might have a up- or down-bias while still being called random, i.e. having a statistical higher probability for going one way versus the other but still keeping all options open.
  • #120
  • Apr 2, 2020 12:44am Apr 2, 2020 12:44am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Agree on something do we...hmmmm ?
We absolutely agree that trading forex or any other markets is the same as going to the casino. Both can be beat. But statistics prove that almost all will lose all of their investment
Ecclesiastes 1:9
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