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Forex is random

  • #81
  • Mar 30, 2020 2:20am Mar 30, 2020 2:20am
Markets are not really random, but appear to be so. They obey chaotic patterns, created by the underlying structure. Like a river, following the flow dictated by the bottom of the river.
New coming information (stones on the river bed) and gravity, dictate the direction of the path.Stones would be news or big volume entering the market, gravity, like the pandemic,or a war, will pull stocks down, etc
That is why traders, who can effectively "read" the underlying structure make millions. And these people do exist.
  • #82
  • Mar 30, 2020 2:46am Mar 30, 2020 2:46am
Quoting cuchuflito
Markets are not really random, but appear to be so. They obey chaotic patterns, created by the underlying structure. Like a river, following the flow dictated by the bottom of the river. New coming information (stones on the river bed) and gravity, dictate the direction of the path.Stones would be news or big volume entering the market, gravity, like the pandemic,or a war, will pull stocks down, etc That is why traders, who can effectively "read" the underlying structure make millions. And these people do exist.
Off course they exist. I just keep emphasizing on the odds of you being one, or knowing one is virtually zero.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #83
  • Mar 30, 2020 3:01am Mar 30, 2020 3:01am
Quoting Legalist
I want to start to trade, could you give me some advice ?
It's a very long and difficult road and nowhere near as easy as you think and will take years to perfect, trouble is it looks so easy for a newbie! And remember the trading industry is full of scams....
Also there is more money made on teaching trading than actual trading in the retail world. So before you start with real money, trade on demo for about a year or so until you're consistantly profitable
One tip, before you pay anyone to teach you, ask yourself; "if this guy's so profitable why is he asking for money to train me?"

Best wishes
  • #84
  • Mar 30, 2020 3:42am Mar 30, 2020 3:42am
Quoting rover99x
{quote} One tip, before you pay anyone to teach you, ask yourself; "if this guy's so profitable why is he asking for money to train me?" Best wishes
Maybe, it will save you a lot of time using someone elses experience ?
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #85
  • Edited 3:26am Mar 31, 2020 3:16am | Edited 3:26am
Quoting strbac
{quote} Random walk still generates a trend. Random walk still moves away from any reference line (eg. a moving average).
The key is to catch the trend generated from a "random walk" within a "random walk". Ofc one need skill wich the creator of the thread does not have it.

Market is not random. The problem is with those whom expectations are not fullfiled. Market does not care about your expectations. (e.g I will put 10 pips TP, 20 pips SL).
As long as one does not understand this fact he will try force the Market do his imposed will wich ofc it's impossible.

Later edit : there is no random market. And I can prove that by transforming every picture wich show a "random market" into a "Trending Market". But hey, this mean everybody will say "show me!". Ok, I'll do it. After you donate 100$ to any Nature Organisation.
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #86
  • Edited 4:30am Mar 31, 2020 4:06am | Edited 4:30am
If any publicly traded financial market were NOT random profiting from any anticipated market move would be impossible
If you would do a simple "reduction to the absurd logical argument" you would see there is no other way.
Any methodology that does not take that fact into account is bound to fail sooner or later.
  • #87
  • Mar 31, 2020 9:19am Mar 31, 2020 9:19am
Quoting Mingary
If any publicly traded financial market were NOT random profiting from any anticipated market move would be impossible If you would do a simple "reduction to the absurd logical argument" you would see there is no other way. Any methodology that does not take that fact into account is bound to fail sooner or later.
The "plunk" everyone just heard is this turd falling into your punch bowl. Mingary is a know-nothing jackass who will do nothing but depress you. Ask him about the greatest accomplishment of his life: his Mingary magical recovery fund. This guy is a loser. He lies, frequently, and you can't trust anything he says. Avoid all contact with him. He is to be avoided, so don't talk to him and he'll go away (but only after making up a few lies to discourage you).
  • #88
  • Mar 31, 2020 10:20am Mar 31, 2020 10:20am
I've been away from FF for a long time. This topic was dealt with in excruciating detail way back then, and apparently still is of interest to someone today. I guess some things never change. Some in this thread have posted examples of non-randomness in the markets. If you can find order in a market then it's also possible to find a way to exploit that order. What does this represent, order or disorder?
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  • #89
  • Edited 12:41pm Mar 31, 2020 12:22pm | Edited 12:41pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} The "plunk" everyone just heard is this turd falling into your punch bowl. Mingary is a know-nothing jackass who will do nothing but depress you. Ask him about the greatest accomplishment of his life: his Mingary magical recovery fund. This guy is a loser. He lies, frequently, and you can't trust anything he says. Avoid all contact with him. He is to be avoided, so don't talk to him and he'll go away (but only after making up a few lies to discourage you).
I don't know how what I said got your knickers in a twist, this was a perfectly benign remark.
How is the IB business going for you these days ?
Probably still a bit down and getting worse I reckon...
You know I don't need to lie, that is why you are so upset and ready to defend your lunch.
And the same to all those who feed off the retail forex crowd. Quite the crooked bunch...
  • #90
  • Mar 31, 2020 1:26pm Mar 31, 2020 1:26pm
Quoting drbrain
{quote} But the problem is that trend direction can change at any point with equal probability. In other words, trends only exist in retrospective.
Exactly, my hat's off to you....
  • #91
  • Mar 31, 2020 1:31pm Mar 31, 2020 1:31pm
Quoting AmmaBoss
Pretty easy to prove the market is not random, using any block chart the chances of a sell or buy block should be roughly 50% at any given moment if the market is random. similar to flipping a coin at any given moment the % of heads or tails would be 50%. So If I open my chat and use .5 pip blocks the chances of 19 red or white blocks in a row should be super low to be exact it has would have a .00004 % chance of occurring per set of 19 blocks. Yet I can open my chart and see that this occurred less than 5 mins ago and there's a maximum of 1000...

Please try that with 10 or 50 pips. You will see that your sample will not repeat itself. Half a pip is just a noise, without ant statistical validity..
  • #92
  • Mar 31, 2020 1:34pm Mar 31, 2020 1:34pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} I realize alot of people truly dont understand what a random walk is. A random walk has a starting point, etc 1.5 in the charts I posted. Heads we go up, tail we go down for every tick. It will never also go to zero. The random walk moves mildly around an equilibrium or starting price. Looking at the euro, it is at the same price it was 21 years ago. Stay smart.
  • #93
  • Mar 31, 2020 2:51pm Mar 31, 2020 2:51pm
Quoting Mingary
{quote} I don't know how what I said got your knickers in a twist, this was a perfectly benign remark. How is the IB business going for you these days ? Probably still a bit down and getting worse I reckon... You know I don't need to lie, that is why you are so upset and ready to defend your lunch. And the same to all those who feed off the retail forex crowd. Quite the crooked bunch...
Please explain your comment on IB business. I have no idea what you are saying or what you mean. Do you?

What I do know, is that you need to lie, because that is your MO. You make stupid statements or claims with no proof or reason. It's just some notion that jumps into, what is usually, your empty head. And what lunch am I defending? Defending from someone the likes of you? That makes me laugh.

Finally, I don't know anyone who "feeds" on the retail forex crowds, except you. You are the one who seeks a following of retail forex failures. After all, in your loser world, no one makes money in the forex (because you failed and accepting your failure like a man is beyond you), except the people on the edges of retail forex, who of course, are the reason you failed. And please, update everyone on your life's most important accomplishment. How is the magical recovery fund coming along? Bring us all up to speed on that that thing that has brought so much meaning of your life.

You know, Mingary, these guys had a nice little thread going here, until you decided to pollute it with the stench of your presence.
  • #94
  • Mar 31, 2020 3:39pm Mar 31, 2020 3:39pm
Quoting Mingary
If any publicly traded financial market were NOT random profiting from any anticipated market move would be impossible If you would do a simple "reduction to the absurd logical argument" you would see there is no other way. Any methodology that does not take that fact into account is bound to fail sooner or later.
Makes no sense at all. Don't know if you can understand your own statement. How can you profit from random movement. I keep realizing that most forex traders are losing money and don't even understand why they are losing money. How many times will I repeat that you can't make money from a random walk. I wanted a progressive discussion here. But I guess I am at the wrong place. EITHER THE MARKET IS RANDOM or IT ISNT. I believe it isnt , I also believe any inefficiency in price is so well hidden. I wonder if it is even a worthwhile cause , because the overwhelming probabilities are against you.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #95
  • Edited 5:05pm Mar 31, 2020 4:18pm | Edited 5:05pm
Quoting PhilippeFX
{quote} The only way to succeed without being manipulated would be a quick in and out w a stop. Trading at the extreme and hoping it would run back to liquidity gap would happen often but not always. I do not trade hedge as times like these it could go up to infinity and would be a tough margin. Best probably is to wait till steam is off at let it run to the other side then probably you would have an edge with you
A hedge just holds a small loss till you get another chance to trade that position out to a break even point at a nice thin liquidity zone. It allows me to trade without fear on high probability setups on every session. I would say I would enter around 10 -30 trades a night and win most setups. That’s about 5-10 setups with the remaining trades to trade out of positions in a hedge. Last night I won 8 out of 10 high probability setups so that’s 8 trades. I used another 12 trades to craw back those two hedged positions for a normal 1% rise on equity per session.
I normally need no more than 30 minutes to “ clear the books” and always ensure all hedges are removed from my account by early New York Session.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #96
  • Mar 31, 2020 6:54pm Mar 31, 2020 6:54pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Makes no sense at all. Don't know if you can understand your own statement. How can you profit from random movement. I keep realizing that most forex traders are losing money and don't even understand why they are losing money. How many times will I repeat that you can't make money from a random walk. I wanted a progressive discussion here. But I guess I am at the wrong place. EITHER THE MARKET IS RANDOM or IT ISNT. I believe it isnt , I also believe any inefficiency in price is so well hidden. I wonder if it is even a worthwhile cause ,...

ok doomer.


Imagine being born and having all this overwhelming probabilities against you from government, other people, biological hindrances and all kind of stuff... Oh wait.

I think thru your perspective you are trying to cope with your own failure, while I agree that most of traders are naive children that are mesmerized by the idea of quick buck (sadly being exploited by heartless people) and end up losing money but it's not because forex is random but because being trapped in their own fantasy they developed thru forex-ideas.

As you are wrong with the forex, you are wrong with this approach to it - accept it and leave it or change the direction as following that "train of thoughts" there are overwhelming probabilities against you.
  • #97
  • Edited 9:30pm Mar 31, 2020 8:24pm | Edited 9:30pm
Quoting Rennaissance
EITHER THE MARKET IS RANDOM or IT ISNT. I believe it isnt , I also believe any inefficiency in price is so well hidden. I wonder if it is even a worthwhile cause , because the overwhelming probabilities are against you.
This is correct except that the market is not entirely random nor is it entirely not random. It's mostly random that's where the distribution is exposed to unlimited variance. There are few pockets in the market that's less random(not not random) which some traders call sweet spot.

The reason behind why it's less random in these sweet spots is the variance is limited and quantifiable. That's where the edge or alpha lay hidden. Everywhere else on the chart is random.

Most traders trade in random areas of the market, mostly guessing. And their guessing trades can even register high win rate. No matter what the outcome such trades do not generate alpha, just random guessing on random segments of the market.

Many traders make the mistake thinking their back test results and forward live trade results show positive win rate or net profit therefore that must mean alpa or edge due to the statistical count. It's not so.

So long as trades is taken on the random segment of the market, it's random. It's about the extent of random and not absolute random or not random.

Summary, alpha or edge is found in the few sweet spot less random segments of the market.
Know what you trade
  • #98
  • Mar 31, 2020 9:35pm Mar 31, 2020 9:35pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Summary, alpha or edge is found in the few sweet spot less random segments of the market.
This is fascinating. Can you show a less random segment on a chart?
  • #99
  • Mar 31, 2020 9:45pm Mar 31, 2020 9:45pm
Quoting GEfx
This is fascinating. Can you show a less random segment on a chart?
Example EU right now, check the chart pls.

EU rose to 1.1035 5hours ago. It has sat there for the past 4hrs with small variance less than 5pips. It fell as expected 1 and half hour ago. That's 4hrs of less random segment of the chart.

That's an example of less random segment of the market whose variance is limited and quantifiable.

A trader who has knowledge of this less random segment of the chart trades with edge or alpha.
Know what you trade
  • #100
  • Edited 10:42pm Mar 31, 2020 10:13pm | Edited 10:42pm
More random, less random / god help me

The only action that matters is the order flow of passive orders being consumed on M1 to M2.
The Algo was running a liquidity pool on EU and when the passive orders were cleaned out, the next pool of liquidity was elsewhere.

Random action or non random action is terms for amauters to waste their precious time worrying about things that don’t matter, professionals are just concerned about order flow and being on the right side of the ledger.

The easiest way to trade the order flow is to trade exhaustion on M1 where a strong move creates candles that becomes fragmented and produces gaps as it moves with speed. It’s the speed of the market here which can be 5-8 times above average doing the damage. If we have a setup at the top of exhaustion, just trade the pullback to fill the gaps.

Below is an example of random action (who the f...k cares) that WILL result in a 90% chance of being profitable on EJ. The question I ask myself is where was the order flow going after those purple M1 candles after it hit a target.

There was no way that gap was not going to be filled. Was it random, irrelevant.
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
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