The Jail Break System | Page 503 | Forex Factory

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The Jail Break System

  • #10,041
  • Mar 27, 2020 3:23pm Mar 27, 2020 3:23pm
Quoting PokerChip
{quote} Well done, have a great weekend.
How risky is holding over the weekend in everyones opinion? I really don't think Ive ever done it even on a demo account!
  • #10,042
  • Mar 27, 2020 3:27pm Mar 27, 2020 3:27pm
Quoting PokerChip
{quote} Well done, have a great weekend.
THX. PC. Have a good weekend yoursellfe. Here in Denmark we are totaly locked down so no funn. (wife at home - so little bit fun!)
You cant beat the MM - so join them!!!
  • #10,043
  • Mar 27, 2020 3:37pm Mar 27, 2020 3:37pm
Quoting SidneyMagal
{quote} How risky is holding over the weekend in everyones opinion? I really don't think Ive ever done it even on a demo account!
if u are positive in green, close it i say. i only leave negatives open
  • #10,044
  • Mar 27, 2020 3:53pm Mar 27, 2020 3:53pm
Quoting SidneyMagal
{quote} How risky is holding over the weekend in everyones opinion? I really don't think Ive ever done it even on a demo account!
Very risky.

Have a great weekend.
Patience, let the trade come to you.
  • #10,045
  • Mar 27, 2020 3:55pm Mar 27, 2020 3:55pm
Quoting Downey50
{quote} THX. PC. Have a good weekend yoursellfe. Here in Denmark we are totaly locked down so no funn. (wife at home - so little bit fun!)
Same here, we can only go to the grocery store, gas station, hospital and stay home.

Thank God for forex trading !

Ha ha, I didn't read this last part about home with wife. Good luck married 27 years, need 100 proof alcohol !
Patience, let the trade come to you.
  • #10,046
  • Mar 27, 2020 4:05pm Mar 27, 2020 4:05pm
Quoting Downey50
{quote} THX. PC. Have a good weekend yoursellfe. Here in Denmark we are totaly locked down so no funn. (wife at home - so little bit fun!)
Same here but not so much fun. She's lovely really.
  • #10,047
  • Mar 27, 2020 5:02pm Mar 27, 2020 5:02pm
Finally completed the read: 503 pages......

Thank you PokerChip, TraderRon and all other contributors. Another good perspective on price movement.

Ready to go by Monday- Level, Price action, Patience!!!
Stay green!!!
  • #10,048
  • Mar 27, 2020 5:25pm Mar 27, 2020 5:25pm
Quoting PokerChip
{quote} I'll have to read this, thanks for posting. I hate to miss anything that's related to forex trading.
He was a trader down on the Nymex from memory and had his own brokerage shop
  • #10,049
  • Mar 27, 2020 5:32pm Mar 27, 2020 5:32pm
Quoting Downey50
{quote} Got my 20, and done for today at the EMA 10. Se you tomorrow! {image}
It's Saturday
  • #10,050
  • Mar 27, 2020 11:41pm Mar 27, 2020 11:41pm
G'day all,

Just started about a week ago reading the thread (thank you all contributors) and finished today!!!!

Of course I have more questions....

I have had a look at 28 pairs plus XAUUSD and their respective locations re: Rup,L1,L1-2,L2,L2-3,L3,R/Rdown,L1,L1-2,L2,L2-3,L3. I would really appreciate any constructive comments. Not to clutter this thread:https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...0#post12843160
Stay green!!!
  • #10,051
  • Mar 28, 2020 4:12am Mar 28, 2020 4:12am
Quoting fistno
{quote} MM use this type of news for stophunt/ push price to trap traders. IMHO, cable is about to shoot north once the slow grinding is over. I might be wrong.
Nice call fistno. You were right.
Empty your mind and let the market guide you
  • #10,052
  • Mar 28, 2020 10:01am Mar 28, 2020 10:01am
@cdk1212
In FXBlue, how can I analyze my different trade styles?
  • #10,053
  • Mar 28, 2020 11:21am Mar 28, 2020 11:21am
Froggy had a question about drawing boxes in the levels.
Here is my reply.

So say that after we have a reversal at the top and the pair starts to move lower to a level I try to stay in the middle from the top and the bottom. So if you have a spike at the top and a spike at the bottom you can measure it if you want, or you can do what I do is just eye ball it and put your box in the middle. And if the pair moves up and down like a ruffle potato chip just traveling side ways you'll need to make the box longer because its still in the same level. And these market makers like keep on moving horizontal plain at this level until he has enough buy traders trapped and then when he does have enough traders trapped he'll move away to the next lower level and start trapping all over again.
That's what forex trading is all about. The whole idea of this game is to avoid being trapped.
I still get trapped to this day. I was trapped 2 times yesterday. But if I know the right direction all I have to do is what for the pair to come back to go the correct direction.
I can't stress this enough, build up your account until you have a big margin it might take you time to do this but after you have a big margin the market maker can't touch you. How big of margin ? 5-6 dismal points, 50,000-100,000 margin will keep you safe from the market maker. This is why I never close a trade. I don't use a stop loss either. That just gives the market maker of something to aim at. There is a lot of profit in forex trading, more than the stock market and I day trade stocks while I'm trading forex.
One more thing that I think will help you.
Find 2-3 pairs you like to trade and stay with them. The reason I say this is once you trade the same pairs you'll pick up the market makers traits, he uses the same moves 90% of the time. And that's why I can post and tell traders about the pair's next movement just before the movement happens. Humans often make the same movements in life, forex is no difference. I don't think they'll ever use a computer as a market maker because they would be programmed to do the same thing all the time.
But what I've been doing lately is trading GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY for the last 2 weeks. If I can make a profit everyday I'll stay with the same pairs. I do look for pairs daily that are making levels, and have not found that many. For now I'll stay with what's working.
I hope this information helps you.
Have a great weekend.

Poker Chip
Patience, let the trade come to you.
  • #10,054
  • Mar 28, 2020 12:31pm Mar 28, 2020 12:31pm
GBP/USD 4 hour chart update.

The pair is at the 1st level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcadi-h4-tw-corp-g-c.png Size: 40 KB
Patience, let the trade come to you.
  • #10,055
  • Mar 28, 2020 12:47pm Mar 28, 2020 12:47pm
Hi PokerChip, hope you're having a great weekend! I have a question about reversals vs retracements. You have probably made this clear in previous posts but I wanted to double check for my continuing education. In your system, the R can stand for either a Reversal OR a Retracement, yes? Are there any guidelines to determine which it might be or is it best to wait and see where the MM wants to take it?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD3-28-20.jpg Size: 124 KB
  • #10,056
  • Mar 28, 2020 12:58pm Mar 28, 2020 12:58pm
Quoting VicarPhilip
Hi PokerChip, hope you're having a great weekend! I have a question about reversals vs retracements. You have probably made this clear in previous posts but I wanted to double check for my continuing education. In your system, the R can stand for either a Reversal OR a Retracement, yes? Are there any guidelines to determine which it might be or is it best to wait and see where the MM want to take it? {image}
Hello VicarPhilip,
The "R" stands for reversal.

After the reversal we usually will have 3 levels then a reversal.

That's what the jail break system is built on.

After a reversal I would recommend that you wait until the Market Maker has shown his hand and prove to you that it's a true reversal.

But sometimes the market maker will push a pair up after the reversal only to bring it right back to the same level as the reversal.

Patience is one of the keys.

I hope this helps.
Patience, let the trade come to you.
  • #10,057
  • Mar 28, 2020 1:08pm Mar 28, 2020 1:08pm
Quoting PokerChip
{quote}After the reversal we usually will have 3 levels then a reversal. That's what the jail break system is built on.
Ah OK thanks. I have a bad habit of thinking a chart should do the exact same thing, every time, failing to take into account the humans running the MM desk. In your experience would you say the 3 levels occur the large majority of the time with occasional blips where there are only 2 levels, a quick reversal after 1 level, etc? Just trying to calibrate my expectations for the inevitable trades that go against us.

*Edit to add: I just found a post of yours from November explaining this very question, your answer then was 75-85% of the time we see the full 3 levels with exceptions. I will keep reading! Thank you!
  • #10,058
  • Mar 28, 2020 1:25pm Mar 28, 2020 1:25pm
Note: For all the forex traders that are learning and want to trade forex.

I would highly recommend this. Don't listen to the news. Try and tune it out the best you can.

I think any type of news clouds the trading mind.

The market maker will use any type of news to move a pair up or down.

The market maker wants to confuse the retail trader. So he or she will make the wrong decision.

If the market maker can't trap you, means that you and the market maker are trading in the same direction and your going to have a winning trade.

When you feel your mentally starting to get tired, stop trading for the day. You'll save yourself heart ache and a lot of hard earned profit.

Everyday you trade and learn for your mistakes and this is what makes you a better trader.

The more you trade the better trader you become, with more trades the more confident you'll be.

What you've learn from winning trades you'll learn five times more from losing trades. That's just how it is.

Once your at the top of your trading skills you'll get into a trading groove where every trade will be a winning trade.

I once had 46 straight trading wins in forex trading. When I first started trading I probably had 10 losing trades and 2-3 winning trades. And I hate losing.

Keep track of your trades, keep a running count from the beginning of each month. This will help you become more competitive in your trades. Wins vs. loses

I hope this helps.
Patience, let the trade come to you.
  • #10,059
  • Mar 28, 2020 1:32pm Mar 28, 2020 1:32pm
Quoting VicarPhilip
{quote}Ah OK thanks. I have a bad habit of thinking a chart should do the exact same thing, every time, failing to take into account the humans running the MM desk. In your experience would you say the 3 levels occur the large majority of the time with occasional blips where there are only 2 levels, a quick reversal after 1 level, etc? Just trying to calibrate my expectations for the inevitable trades that go against us. *Edit to add: I just found a post of yours from November explaining this very question, your answer then was 75-85% of the time...
One of my problems in forex trading is the reversal, sometimes a pair will run right past the reversal point. This happened to me in USD/CAD last month.
It kept on going up after I had committed to a sell.

It finally came back.

After you learn the jail break system you should have a high winning percentage, probably 8 out of 10 trades.

If you get your margin higher you'll be able to keep the trade open and let the pair come back to you.
Patience, let the trade come to you.
  • #10,060
  • Mar 28, 2020 3:14pm Mar 28, 2020 3:14pm
Quoting PokerChip
{quote} One of my problems in forex trading is the reversal, sometimes a pair will run right past the reversal point. This happened to me in USD/CAD last month. It kept on going up after I had committed to a sell. It finally came back. After you learn the jail break system you should have a high winning percentage, probably 8 out of 10 trades. If you get your margin higher you'll be able to keep the trade open and let the pair come back to you.
Poker if i may suggest ways of minimizing the possibility of that DD.
1)market makers will and have to take Price to where the market is, so if there are large sells clusters 30-50 pips above current price and another cluster forming above that, price will keep rising to meet that demand but aiming at whipsawing them out of the trade.
If there are large clusters of buyers and sellers on the way up, then the whipsawing becomes even more complex but always aims to take into the trade as many as possible (value wise), and then fake em out. Tools are available to see the pending orders. What is then needed is an analysis and recognition of the buildup patterns to match the pendings clusters.
2) watching for buildups of simple wedge formations at or near previous structure highs ,combined with the knowledge of the pendings and stop loss clusters available through the tools helps with the timing.
If there are multiple clusters in close proximity at different levels, it make sense that they will be targeted but you will see a 'complex wedge formation. A simple wedge within a larger wedge forming. Remember at or near previous structural points of significance. i.e. DH, WH, MH or lows in reverse.
The daily chart as you often have stated helps with the direction after the reversal. So, after the 3rd level rise on daily i would advise to look for the continuation fake move, creation of wedge , fake out below and then above to high of wedge and if no further clusters close by above only then look for Reversal. I still cock up massively but when focused and i keep in mind this, its almost foolproof.
And before anybody starts asking about the tools, I have already mentioned them and posted charts with them on. You and others can pm me for further info on them . i use em most of the time when i know i will have alot of trading allocated time..
Keep well buddy
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