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COT: The precious data ignored

  • #221
  • Mar 28, 2020 4:24am Mar 28, 2020 4:24am
Quoting kuroro001
Daily sentiment 27/03/2020 {image} Quick update : Regarding equities, its only 37%. Before shorting again i'd wait a higher reading Energy : Dangerous territory for oil / gasoline / gas. I'm already invested in Oil. Flat in Gas, but looking for a good entry to load Soft agri : My next big buy will be Cotton. But i'm still on the sideline for now
about investing in oil.
are you hedging something ?
like 1st thing i will do when i see some reversal i will hedge the amount of of oil/gasoline i am using in my business. done this before but I've had cost up
wo my transport company will but the amount it's using for a period of time to hedge some of the prices that will go up after corona.

so looking from instruments,

on investing a little nibbling on XOM/CVX on panic. stocks look better than crude oil from bottom up - WTI still down
staying away from ETF's especially those levered.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #222
  • Mar 28, 2020 4:28am Mar 28, 2020 4:28am
Quoting kuroro001
If we go down first, i'll look for cheap stocks to buy
doing exactly the same thing. could see Monday down and than reversal. ... a possibility - would be very tempting to buy close to last low - because timing is beetter with corona. i mean we are closed to exit than last time. could be also choppy. maybe a little biased but i don't really expect huge rally from here. some of the structural problems will take some time to resolve. but shorting will be more difficult from now on. imho
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #223
  • Mar 28, 2020 4:33am Mar 28, 2020 4:33am
More WTI accumulation coming

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Having a look at the crude oil producers/consumers, they are accumulating more and more, nearing 2%, this is the maximum within the past 6 years so far.
A reminder : When the spread was that high before, crude oil was already very high. It then fell hard. On the opposite, today, we have the same high spread but price at the bottom.

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Money managers are no longer selling the fall. Do they know something we don't?

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Here are the short side of the swap dealers. Are they out of their mind to go very short at that bottom?

I'm still buying dips for the mid/long run.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #224
  • Mar 28, 2020 4:46am Mar 28, 2020 4:46am
RBOB gasoline, on the rise?

I'm not analysing the producers, as they are ALWAYS short, reducing/increasing positions. They are still short, decreasing a bit lately

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Regarding the short side of the swap dealers, the less the better for longs. Only 1% are shorts. Historically it can bounce up nicely


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Money managers short side are increasing their short at the bottom. Classic move when prices are in a bottoming process.

Overall, i'm still buying dips on Gasoline, crude oil, and natural gas (that i will analyse next)
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #225
  • Mar 28, 2020 5:07am Mar 28, 2020 5:07am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} about investing in oil. are you hedging something ? like 1st thing i will do when i see some reversal i will hedge the amount of of oil/gasoline i am using in my business. done this before but I've had cost up wo my transport company will but the amount it's using for a period of time to hedge some of the prices that will go up after corona. so looking from instruments, on investing a little nibbling on XOM/CVX on panic. stocks look better than crude oil from bottom up - WTI still down staying away from ETF's especially those levered.
No mate, i'm not hedging anything. I'm just investing in the product because it looks cheap. It can be cheaper i agree but on the long run i can't see oil disappear

What you do is a good idea. At 20 dollars a baril, cocktails in France are more expansive! Crazy when you think about it.

I agree that XOM/CVX would look interesting, and they will squeeze higher once WTI bottom. I have them on my watch list

Never ever use leverage ETF, unless you day trade (in/out quickly), because all x3 leverage crude oil disappeared

Better be safe than sorry
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #226
  • Mar 28, 2020 5:09am Mar 28, 2020 5:09am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} doing exactly the same thing. could see Monday down and than reversal. ... a possibility - would be very tempting to buy close to last low - because timing is beetter with corona. i mean we are closed to exit than last time. could be also choppy. maybe a little biased but i don't really expect huge rally from here. some of the structural problems will take some time to resolve. but shorting will be more difficult from now on. imho
a 35/40% move down on most market, then small rally like we had ? i would expect more like you said

But lower would be better for sure. I got some french stocks already, looking to add US stocks if S&P/DOW drop more

Good luck for the coming week mate
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #227
  • Mar 28, 2020 5:10am Mar 28, 2020 5:10am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} No mate, i'm not hedging anything. I'm just investing in the product because it looks cheap. It can be cheaper i agree but on the long run i can't see oil disappear What you do is a good idea. At 20 dollars a baril, cocktails in France are more expansive! Crazy when you think about it. I agree that XOM/CVX would look interesting, and they will squeeze higher once WTI bottom. I have them on my watch list Never ever use leverage ETF, unless you day trade (in/out quickly), because all x3 leverage crude oil disappeared Better be safe...

Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #228
  • Mar 28, 2020 5:22am Mar 28, 2020 5:22am
Gas power on ?

Bulls have been waiting for a move up for so long. Have they given up yet? I haven't regarding this current COT report

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Having a look at this producers/consumers net position, finally we are back in positive territory. Price barely moved this week but bulls increase strongly.

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Lets look at the long side of the producers. They are increasing a lot while prices barely move down. Its a good sign for bulls.

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Money managers are decreasing their net short for the past 4 weeks. Usually they increase it as we go down. Decreasing would mean they know something and we are ready to go up.

I'm buying natural gas this week once i see a good entry
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #229
  • Mar 28, 2020 7:11am Mar 28, 2020 7:11am
Coffee bulls are dreaming?

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Money manager's spread is clearly positive. Too many bulls left to make the price rise.
Coffee is a long term bearish market, but at some point, we'll have a break up to support producers. We are not there yet

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Looking at the short side of the money managers, they are slighly above 5%, almost nothing. Shorting rallies is the way to go

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Here is a chart of the long/short traders (i made it in term of %).
As you can see, we can use it as a contrarian indicator. Too many bulls, price falls, too many bears price rises.
What do we have lately ? too many bulls

I'm still shorting the rallies so far. I'm not taking a single long yet.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #230
  • Mar 28, 2020 11:35am Mar 28, 2020 11:35am
Live cattle entering bull zone


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Here is a chart of a mix of the long/short (made in %).

Its -40% for now. Its very low.
I'm still looking for some longs. I haven't found any good entry point.

But im definitely looking to load longs anytime soon
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #231
  • Mar 29, 2020 1:17am Mar 29, 2020 1:17am
Cotton on the finish line?

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Here is the Cotton positioning from the market participant (calculated through COT datas).
Pretty easy to understand, pretty easy to use.
Lately buyers went quickly from very strong to flat before the fall.

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This current chart represent long/short traders (I turned it into 100% band level to know if we are near extreme or not).
Price fell hard above the 60%, extreme at 80%. We just turned into negative, meaning its not the time to short it anymore, nor to long it as we need traders to be very short first.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #232
  • Mar 29, 2020 1:46am Mar 29, 2020 1:46am
What's next for the currencies? (EUR/JPY/GBP/CAD/CHF)

I'll analyse the most important components of the Dollar index (EUR - JPY - GBP - CAD - CHF).
On a side note : SEK doesn't have COT data so i can't analyse it

EUR
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EURO may be tricky with week. I have mentionned last week i turned bullish because of the large buying of EURO by Assets managers.
EURO rose nicely. If we look at this weekly COT, it says Assets managers are still large buyers but something i'm looking it at is that dealers are still largely sellers too.
Its possible we have a flat week, up/down during all week, until market participants agree for a big EURO move.
Looking at the money managers, they are still clearing their shorts. What scares me the most is the EURO positionning (last chart). They are hitting 80%, very short. We may have dip this week. Watch out.

JPY
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Quick and simple sum for JPY traders. Assets managers are very long, which is not good for long traders. Money managers are longs as well, but less powerful. Still not good.
Regarding the short money managers, very weak, we need more of them to have a bottom.
Finally, the JPY positionning is too high, meaning the idea overall is to short JPY rallies


GBP
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I have mentionned about the money managers who went too long last week, hence the bounce.
We had that bounce, bigger than expected for sure.
If we look at the money managers, they are stil very long. Its not good for the long side.
Now looking at GBP longs only, still net long, which could mean this bounce was a way to bring it more retail buyers, so it can go down more.
Last chart is the GBP positionning. It just turned positive, but its so weak. In order to make it grow, GBP prices need to fall again.

CAD
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Long dealers are increasing their longs, they are looking for a bottom (probably due to cheap CAD price with low Oil prices).
CAD positionning is still high and positive, hence CAD shorts winning.
I would be very cautious with CAD short, especially with Oil price that low.
CAD shorts could derail

CHF
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Click to Enlarge Name: chf4.PNG Size: 41 KB

I have analysed the CHF in a previous post. I was mentionning that traders are positionned to short rallies.
It doesn't mean it can't rise, it just mean on the long run they are selling CHF.

If i sum up everything overall, and mix it regarding the dollar, we have a higher chance of having a dollar strength this week.
Its possible we stay flat this week on a dollar view (with swings obviously because of the macro news and the long awaited NFP on friday)
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #233
  • Mar 29, 2020 4:52am Mar 29, 2020 4:52am
Grain positionning

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #234
  • Mar 29, 2020 9:53am Mar 29, 2020 9:53am
Gold / Silver positionning

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #235
  • Mar 29, 2020 11:02am Mar 29, 2020 11:02am
Wheat top ?

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Strongest money managers position over the past 4 years. They went all in at this current top.

On a side note : Looking at the producers, they are still very short.

For the coming week, i'll short rallies. Period.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #236
  • Apr 4, 2020 12:33am Apr 4, 2020 12:33am
S&P500, ranging?

Kicking off the coming week with S&P500 as usual

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Spread of the dealers is showing net increase of the long side even though its still negative.
Its not a very clear signal as dealers can be very short on top, and very short on bottom. Everything depends where the price is

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Short asset managers from the VIX compared to S&P500 is showing they are clearly not very short VIX, which could help the S&P rise

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Here is a chart of the short only from S&P market participants. They are very short on bottom.

I can read all over the place everybody is short and expecting new lows and more.
Market participants are not so sure about it, and shorting that low doesnt give you a good risk/return.
Either buy when we get near 1800/2000 or sell above 2800 IMO
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #237
  • Apr 4, 2020 1:28am Apr 4, 2020 1:28am
EUR ready to bounce? USD agrees?

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We still have a heavy accumulation from the Assets Managers, accumulating big longs as we go down.
Its dangerous to short and go against such increase of longs

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Money managers are going the same way as the Assets managers. They are clearing their shorts as we go up. Every single week they are going from deep negative to almost positive.

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Lets have a look at the USD now. Assets managers are playing a dangerous game, going very long (40% net long) on top. Its never a good sign. If this current roof is cleared, we'll have a big down move next.

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Having a look at the short side of the money managers of the dollar, they are going more short on top.
From history? look for short for retrace down

My stategy for next week ? I'll be looking for good entry to go long only
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #238
  • Apr 4, 2020 1:48am Apr 4, 2020 1:48am
Quoting kuroro001
S&P500, ranging? I can read all over the place everybody is short and expecting new lows and more. Market participants are not so sure about it, and shorting that low doesnt give you a good risk/return. Either buy when we get near 1800/2000 or sell above 2800 IMO
Looking at the PA of this week with all the economic data and gloom and doom I think it was pretty decent.
I also see asset managers and dealers going up in the last 2 weeks ?
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #239
  • Apr 4, 2020 1:51am Apr 4, 2020 1:51am
Quoting kuroro001
EUR ready to bounce? USD agrees? {image} We still have a heavy accumulation from the Assets Managers, accumulating big longs as we go down. Its dangerous to short and go against such increase of longs {image} Money managers are going the same way as the Assets managers. They are clearing their shorts as we go up. Every single week they are going from deep negative to almost positive. {image} Lets have a look at the USD now. Assets managers are playing a dangerous game, going very long (40% net long) on top. Its never a good sign. If this current...
I am usually very good on future movement, but sometimes when big moves coming - bad o timing. i find it hard to impossible to go Long on USD right. now. i could be wrong. this week i was. for sure but same thing happen with our discussion about Oil last week and boy did we see a huge rally
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #240
  • Apr 4, 2020 1:59am Apr 4, 2020 1:59am
Mexican peso upmove ending?

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This first chart represents the assets managers. Looks like they don't believe in any longs at all. Going short and more short as we go down. Turning point soon?

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Looking at the spread between Dealers and Assets managers it seems dealers are coming strong, going more long while Assets managers more short. Hence its almost positive, ready for a turn up

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By only looking at the long side of the dealers, they are strongly increasing their longs. I'm on their side

The good thing while trading USDMXN is the positive daily swap if long the Mexican peso.
From next week, i'll be looking at buying MXN
COT: The precious data ignored
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