Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout
- #47,884
- Mar 26, 2020 7:36pm Mar 26, 2020 7:36pm
- Joined Mar 2017 | Status: Trader | 2,054 Posts
To save people some time and Lem the hastle of explaining things yet again for the 1000x (even though he's a nice guy and would do it anyway). I copied and pasted 2 posts from Lem talking about countering. I hope these help!
----- 1st Post -----
"Right guys. It seems like many panties are getting into a twist over countering.
There are a few separate issues going on here and I'll try and deal with them now - so, in no particular order:
1. You seem to be confused as to the reason for and function of the counter. This trade is not designed to make back any loss from a first entry. It is there to stop that first bad trade from getting any worse...ever.
Taking swaps out of the equation, this set-up can be left till the end of time and never drop any more into negative territory.
This gives you precious time to take a step back, catch your breath and figure out what you are going to do next.
At its most basic, you will now wait for the next main trigger. Emphasis on main. That, in the case of the Billy Bar or AU H4 Break, can be the next day.
That's generally the way Billy would run things. Bearing in mind that he had a few angles he kept hidden, mostly involving trading any retrace that appeared before the next main trigger.
Also, as an aside, please remember that he always didn't care less what happened on any given day, so long as he ended the week green.
Anyway, back to what comes next.
2. This is where Billy and I differed slightly in our approach but the overarching process and result is the same.
You look to eat back into that floating loss. The original trades may as well not exist, for all the influence they have on anything that you are doing now. How Billy would do this is look for retrace moves and scalp back a pip or two or three at a time. Just keep it grinding away. Once he had made that clear, he was quite happy (well, maybe happy is the wrong word - but content enough, certainly) to close out the original two trades.
For me, I would do the same thing but use different methods. I use Wick-Zone (both major and minor, whatever applies - and that would be my equivalent of Billy's retrace trade), Supply+Demand (again, major and minor), then, more recently, I have used a completely different stand-alone scalping method to eat away at that floating loss.
The key to these trades is to attempt as best you can, once you clear the spread, to never let them go negative. This is why I will use the scalping method, which looks to jump on board momo (momentum) and ride it for a quick handful and get out.
If they look to turn on you, close them out. Bag a couple of pips, one pip, a quarter...it doesn't matter. Bag it. They mount up.
If it goes back your way, re-enter.
Layered on top of these, you can use whatever stuff you have available in your traders' bag o' tricks - fibs, pivots, opens, yada, yada, yada. Name your poison and chug it down.
3. As I said, once you have covered that floating loss, you can close out happy. However, it is also possible to run this to maximise the return from the positive leg and minimise the loss of the negative one. If you get a big momo move, always look to close the negative leg first, close it on a retrace back against it for instance, letting the positive one run as long as you can. Once it is running, it is also possible to add-into that position, stacking as it runs.
If you really put your mind to it, it is entirely possible to also clear the negative leg and end the day (or however long you work it) with all trades completely green. For this, it also does admittedly help if you are a stubborn son of a **** like some of us are and hate giving anything back to the market.
4. Specific to The Frankenbreak, this runs its counter trades in a style of its own. Yes, you can keep it simple and run a sl and re-enter but that is not very efficient, though stats say it will only very, very, rarely not clear more than enough on the second trade to cover any initial head fake.
However, I run it by using the actual zone as a Wick Zone. The levels are established by the first candle's Open and the last candle's Close. This builds a custom candle and is run accordingly.
I will also run a fib-map through that zone and look at where the 50-Fib and any potential
Z-Lines are. These are layered into the method accordingly.
For me, that's my thing, as I will look to set my counters / add-ins / whatever, using micro S+D or Fibs.
5. Finally, you must not let the distance between the two trades get too large. Yes, you could (would) clear the negative eventually but the tighter the hedge, the easier it is to unwind it. Billy would get around this by using techniques such as adopting his ''modest range'', which actually could be way less than the true range.
Letting it get too wide is where you end up with multiple counters running, as you are basically whipped to death." ~Lemercenaire~
----- 2nd Post -----
"This fail and fail and fail again can happen if the counter is too large, that is that the buy and sell entries are too far apart, so what you get is price continually either just triggering and turning once again before your target is met, or not triggering at all, with price sitting between, so both long and short are sitting in negative (even though the overall negative will remain fixed at the same amount).
5 min tf is also not always optimum ground for countering, as you can get tiny candles very easily. That's why I use mostly 10 min or 15 min candles, even though I may enter a counter on a 5 min line (yes, I know how confusing that sounds).
Also - and possibly the thing that matters most of all - is that we are not running this on random pairs. We have a statistical edge on specific pairs and ''know'' that if we sit it out long enough, then we will get the amount of movement one way that will clear our floating negative. At its simplest, think of it like this - if a pair's ADR is 100 and we have a floater of -10, how likely (or unlikely) is it that we won't get a move larger than that -10?
Also, you are looking at an open counter in isolation - and Billy has touched on this as well - whereas we do not. It is simply a number. How it is now reduced is open to interpretation and our own methods.
One of the keys for these trades for me at this point, is that once the spread has been cleared, you do not let them go negative. Close for a pip...a half-a-pip if it comes to it...just not negative. If price does this and we close in a small profit then turns back again, we simply re-enter. Rinse, repeat. All the while, you are reducing the day's +/- amount...and that original counter remains at exactly the same figure.
So, the original floating loss could be -10...you add a couple of plus moves, say +2 and +4. Now your day sits at only -4, even though that original floating loss is exactly the same.
Then maybe a third gives you +9 and your day is at +5. Target met.
Now...you have a couple of options. Close both the original trades straight away and take the clear amount, or stagger them in stages. If you have momentum, you would probably not have even closed that +9 trade, so that will mean you will have two going one way in increasing profit and one going negative. You close the negative, then maximise the two in positive territory. You'll end up with a greater plus figure and one day's trade closed at a loss (the negative leg of the hedge/counter).
Or...and this is riskier, admittedly, you have the two running positive and when it looks like it is stalling that way, close them but keep the negative open, as it is looking to now turn back on itself, first reducing that negative and then even going all the way back into profit. That way you can green up your board, with no loss trades on your day's books at all.
Soooooo...ok...now...there is another addition to that last move - and that is to add another trade in the same direction as the now-decreasing negative trade and so you will also be adding even more jam on top as that trade reduces, so even of it doesn't clear completely, the newest trade will cover the part that doesn't.
Or you could just use a stop...
" ~Lemercenaire~
----- 1st Post -----
"Right guys. It seems like many panties are getting into a twist over countering.
There are a few separate issues going on here and I'll try and deal with them now - so, in no particular order:
1. You seem to be confused as to the reason for and function of the counter. This trade is not designed to make back any loss from a first entry. It is there to stop that first bad trade from getting any worse...ever.
Taking swaps out of the equation, this set-up can be left till the end of time and never drop any more into negative territory.
This gives you precious time to take a step back, catch your breath and figure out what you are going to do next.
At its most basic, you will now wait for the next main trigger. Emphasis on main. That, in the case of the Billy Bar or AU H4 Break, can be the next day.
That's generally the way Billy would run things. Bearing in mind that he had a few angles he kept hidden, mostly involving trading any retrace that appeared before the next main trigger.
Also, as an aside, please remember that he always didn't care less what happened on any given day, so long as he ended the week green.
Anyway, back to what comes next.
2. This is where Billy and I differed slightly in our approach but the overarching process and result is the same.
You look to eat back into that floating loss. The original trades may as well not exist, for all the influence they have on anything that you are doing now. How Billy would do this is look for retrace moves and scalp back a pip or two or three at a time. Just keep it grinding away. Once he had made that clear, he was quite happy (well, maybe happy is the wrong word - but content enough, certainly) to close out the original two trades.
For me, I would do the same thing but use different methods. I use Wick-Zone (both major and minor, whatever applies - and that would be my equivalent of Billy's retrace trade), Supply+Demand (again, major and minor), then, more recently, I have used a completely different stand-alone scalping method to eat away at that floating loss.
The key to these trades is to attempt as best you can, once you clear the spread, to never let them go negative. This is why I will use the scalping method, which looks to jump on board momo (momentum) and ride it for a quick handful and get out.
If they look to turn on you, close them out. Bag a couple of pips, one pip, a quarter...it doesn't matter. Bag it. They mount up.
If it goes back your way, re-enter.
Layered on top of these, you can use whatever stuff you have available in your traders' bag o' tricks - fibs, pivots, opens, yada, yada, yada. Name your poison and chug it down.
3. As I said, once you have covered that floating loss, you can close out happy. However, it is also possible to run this to maximise the return from the positive leg and minimise the loss of the negative one. If you get a big momo move, always look to close the negative leg first, close it on a retrace back against it for instance, letting the positive one run as long as you can. Once it is running, it is also possible to add-into that position, stacking as it runs.
If you really put your mind to it, it is entirely possible to also clear the negative leg and end the day (or however long you work it) with all trades completely green. For this, it also does admittedly help if you are a stubborn son of a **** like some of us are and hate giving anything back to the market.
4. Specific to The Frankenbreak, this runs its counter trades in a style of its own. Yes, you can keep it simple and run a sl and re-enter but that is not very efficient, though stats say it will only very, very, rarely not clear more than enough on the second trade to cover any initial head fake.
However, I run it by using the actual zone as a Wick Zone. The levels are established by the first candle's Open and the last candle's Close. This builds a custom candle and is run accordingly.
I will also run a fib-map through that zone and look at where the 50-Fib and any potential
Z-Lines are. These are layered into the method accordingly.For me, that's my thing, as I will look to set my counters / add-ins / whatever, using micro S+D or Fibs.
5. Finally, you must not let the distance between the two trades get too large. Yes, you could (would) clear the negative eventually but the tighter the hedge, the easier it is to unwind it. Billy would get around this by using techniques such as adopting his ''modest range'', which actually could be way less than the true range.
Letting it get too wide is where you end up with multiple counters running, as you are basically whipped to death." ~Lemercenaire~
----- 2nd Post -----
"This fail and fail and fail again can happen if the counter is too large, that is that the buy and sell entries are too far apart, so what you get is price continually either just triggering and turning once again before your target is met, or not triggering at all, with price sitting between, so both long and short are sitting in negative (even though the overall negative will remain fixed at the same amount).
5 min tf is also not always optimum ground for countering, as you can get tiny candles very easily. That's why I use mostly 10 min or 15 min candles, even though I may enter a counter on a 5 min line (yes, I know how confusing that sounds).
Also - and possibly the thing that matters most of all - is that we are not running this on random pairs. We have a statistical edge on specific pairs and ''know'' that if we sit it out long enough, then we will get the amount of movement one way that will clear our floating negative. At its simplest, think of it like this - if a pair's ADR is 100 and we have a floater of -10, how likely (or unlikely) is it that we won't get a move larger than that -10?
Also, you are looking at an open counter in isolation - and Billy has touched on this as well - whereas we do not. It is simply a number. How it is now reduced is open to interpretation and our own methods.
One of the keys for these trades for me at this point, is that once the spread has been cleared, you do not let them go negative. Close for a pip...a half-a-pip if it comes to it...just not negative. If price does this and we close in a small profit then turns back again, we simply re-enter. Rinse, repeat. All the while, you are reducing the day's +/- amount...and that original counter remains at exactly the same figure.
So, the original floating loss could be -10...you add a couple of plus moves, say +2 and +4. Now your day sits at only -4, even though that original floating loss is exactly the same.
Then maybe a third gives you +9 and your day is at +5. Target met.
Now...you have a couple of options. Close both the original trades straight away and take the clear amount, or stagger them in stages. If you have momentum, you would probably not have even closed that +9 trade, so that will mean you will have two going one way in increasing profit and one going negative. You close the negative, then maximise the two in positive territory. You'll end up with a greater plus figure and one day's trade closed at a loss (the negative leg of the hedge/counter).
Or...and this is riskier, admittedly, you have the two running positive and when it looks like it is stalling that way, close them but keep the negative open, as it is looking to now turn back on itself, first reducing that negative and then even going all the way back into profit. That way you can green up your board, with no loss trades on your day's books at all.
Soooooo...ok...now...there is another addition to that last move - and that is to add another trade in the same direction as the now-decreasing negative trade and so you will also be adding even more jam on top as that trade reduces, so even of it doesn't clear completely, the newest trade will cover the part that doesn't.
Or you could just use a stop...
" ~Lemercenaire~
- #47,885
- Mar 27, 2020 2:18am Mar 27, 2020 2:18am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Trader | 25,867 Posts
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
- #47,886
- Mar 27, 2020 2:20am Mar 27, 2020 2:20am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Trader | 25,867 Posts
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
- #47,887
- Mar 27, 2020 3:26am Mar 27, 2020 3:26am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Trader | 25,867 Posts
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
- #47,888
- Mar 27, 2020 3:52am Mar 27, 2020 3:52am
- Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Trader | 18,269 Posts
Late start for me today - haven't even been into the office. Will also be popping out for a bit to run the other half into her work for 10 mins as she needs to run a service check on the office computers (they are all working remotely from home). Will do our shop on the way back and cover as many exterior bases as we can in one go!
I will certainly be back on later, even if it is Friday! WTH else is there to do!
I will certainly be back on later, even if it is Friday! WTH else is there to do!
- #47,889
- Mar 27, 2020 4:06am Mar 27, 2020 4:06am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Trader | 25,867 Posts
Late start for me today - haven't even been into the office. Will also be popping out for a bit to run the other half into her work for 10 mins as she needs to run a service check on the office computers (they are all working remotely from home). Will do our shop on the way back and cover as many exterior bases as we can in one go! I will certainly be back on later, even if it is Friday! WTH else is there to do!
and i trade. i trade more now though.
It is quite nice out, maybe i will find a clearing and sunbathe lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
- #47,891
- Mar 27, 2020 4:09am Mar 27, 2020 4:09am
- Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Trader | 18,269 Posts
Late start for me today - haven't even been into the office. Will also be popping out for a bit to run the other half into her work for 10 mins as she needs to run a service check on the office computers (they are all working remotely from home). Will do our shop on the way back and cover as many exterior bases as we can in one go! I will certainly be back on later, even if it is Friday! WTH else is there to do!
) jumped onto a Market Sentiment / Dynamic Pivot set-up.Looking at Short for me and here we are off and running. I had it set for a double-dip with two x +6 pip profits. The SL you see is purely a Dead-Man's Stop as I won't be here to baby-sit the thing.
AJ H1 Market Sentiment Short. Dynamic Pivot. Double-Dip off-and-running.
- #47,892
- Mar 27, 2020 4:14am Mar 27, 2020 4:14am
- Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Trader | 18,269 Posts
{quote} OK, as I was waiting for O.H. to get ready (
Before I am even off my chair...
Trade #1 +6
Trade #2 +6
- #47,896
- Mar 27, 2020 4:27am Mar 27, 2020 4:27am
- Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Trader | 18,269 Posts
There was a sweeeeeeeeeeeeet move off the Cam-Short-Level for GU early birds this morning.
- #47,897
- Mar 27, 2020 5:09am Mar 27, 2020 5:09am
- Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Trader | 18,269 Posts
Still here, so still trading, lol.
Triple-Dipper with entry off fib-levels, out of a Not-Quite-A-RAT set-up.
The Upper and Lower blue areas are RAT Zones and the one in the middle was my target area.
I closed the top level entry at just under scratch, as this was the third time price had tried and failed to breach that level. I can take a hint.
It may drop again and still punch on up and through but at some point your face gets sore from having it slapped. Bagged more than enough, so happy to bail.
GU Triple-Dip Long off a Not-Quite-A-RAT using fib-levels. -2 +6.1 +18.6 [+22.7]
Triple-Dipper with entry off fib-levels, out of a Not-Quite-A-RAT set-up.
The Upper and Lower blue areas are RAT Zones and the one in the middle was my target area.
I closed the top level entry at just under scratch, as this was the third time price had tried and failed to breach that level. I can take a hint.
It may drop again and still punch on up and through but at some point your face gets sore from having it slapped. Bagged more than enough, so happy to bail.
GU Triple-Dip Long off a Not-Quite-A-RAT using fib-levels. -2 +6.1 +18.6 [+22.7]
- #47,899
- Mar 27, 2020 5:13am Mar 27, 2020 5:13am
- Joined Oct 2015 | Status: Trader | 18,269 Posts
Still here, so still trading, lol. Triple-Dipper with entry off fib-levels, out of a Not-Quite-A-RAT set-up. The Upper and Lower blue areas are RAT Zones and the one in the middle was my target area. I closed the top level entry at just under scratch, as this was the third time price had tried and failed to breach that level. I can take a hint. It may drop again and still punch on up and through but at some point your face gets sore from having it slapped. Bagged more than enough, so happy to bail. GU Triple-Dip Long off[/highlight]...
