Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2394 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #47,861
  • Mar 26, 2020 8:02am Mar 26, 2020 8:02am
Quoting RieseP
08-00 15 min Bar (Open/Low) I got first break to the Low aiming for 20. Which is my mistake had I stuck to usual 10 would have been easy sailing. Nevertheless we prevail. I traded the fail for a counter but realised halfway I didn’t increase my lot size. I got 20+ but broke even. back to drawing board. I still made good money on 03-00 1 hour bar. Stick to low ranges from now on and stick to my usual target. Won’t get greedy just because more on the table. stay safe guys
Been there, done it . It happens bud.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #47,862
  • Mar 26, 2020 8:22am Mar 26, 2020 8:22am
Not one good option for The Dead Zone today. None. Ho hum...
  • #47,863
  • Edited 9:19am Mar 26, 2020 8:36am | Edited 9:19am
As naked as the day it was born...

Just candles and Market Sentiment info.

EA 1-min Market Sentiment Play. Long for me. Closed at +8.2 +12.5 [+20.7]

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  • #47,864
  • Edited 9:19am Mar 26, 2020 8:45am | Edited 9:19am
Quoting lemercenaire
As naked as the day it was born... Just candles and Market Sentiment info. EA 1-min Market Sentiment Play. Long for me. Closed at +8.2 +12.5 [+20.7] {image}
Another. UC this time.

UC 1-min Market Sentiment Play. Long for me. Closed at +3 +5.2 +6.4 [+14.6]

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  • #47,865
  • Edited 9:18am Mar 26, 2020 8:48am | Edited 9:18am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Another. UC this time. UC 1-min Market Sentiment Play. Long for me. Closed at +3 +5.2 +6.4 [+14.6] {image}
Should have held that UC a tad longer, lol...

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  • #47,866
  • Mar 26, 2020 9:17am Mar 26, 2020 9:17am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Should have held that UC a tad longer, lol... {image}
Third. AJ this time around.

AJ 1-min Market Sentiment Play. Short for me. Closed at +2.8 +4.6 +5.5 [+12.9]

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  • #47,867
  • Mar 26, 2020 9:55am Mar 26, 2020 9:55am
Just my thoughts on countering. Feel free to stop me in my tracks.

Lets say range is 30 Max

First break aim for 10 [ 1 Lot ]- Fails

We Stick a counter [ 3 Lots ] aim for 20 points

That means we have a -50 [ Range + plus target of 20 ]

Then we have [ 3 Lots ] x 20 points is + 60

Therefor we have +60 - (- 50) = +10 when the range is at its highest any less more likely to bag more $$

If low fails - high fails then some might want to add 1 lot to shorten the distance until it plays out.

If any one would like to add to this would be much appreciated
  • #47,868
  • Mar 26, 2020 10:11am Mar 26, 2020 10:11am
Quoting RieseP
Just my thoughts on countering. Feel free to stop me in my tracks. Lets say range is 30 Max First break aim for 10 [ 1 Lot ]- Fails We Stick a counter [ 3 Lots ] aim for 20 points That means we have a -50 [ Range + plus target of 20 ] Then we have [ 3 Lots ] x 20 points is + 60 Therefor we have +60 - (- 50) = +10 when the range is at its highest any less more likely to bag more $$ If low fails - high fails then some might want to add 1 lot to shorten the distance until it plays out. If any one would like to add to this would be much appreciated

My main trade, if i have a fail i counter and more often than not add a trade.
i make sure i get 5% trade in and leave the counter to run. If the trade fails at -30, if it returns that trade is then at zero loss, plus the -30 from the second trade.
You trade the secondary trades.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #47,869
  • Mar 26, 2020 10:13am Mar 26, 2020 10:13am
Quoting billytt
{quote} My main trade, if i have a fail i counter and more often than not add a trade. i make sure i get 5% trade in and leave the counter to run. If the trade fails at -30, if it returns that trade is then at zero loss, plus the -30 from the second trade. You trade the secondary trades.
So would you counter as soon as price re-enter back into the range?
  • #47,870
  • Mar 26, 2020 10:25am Mar 26, 2020 10:25am
Quoting RieseP
{quote} So would you counter as soon as price re-enter back into the range?
If one end fails, i counter as soon as it fails.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #47,871
  • Mar 26, 2020 10:31am Mar 26, 2020 10:31am
Quoting RieseP
Just my thoughts on countering. Feel free to stop me in my tracks. Lets say range is 30 Max First break aim for 10 [ 1 Lot ]- Fails We Stick a counter [ 3 Lots ] aim for 20 points That means we have a -50 [ Range + plus target of 20 ] Then we have [ 3 Lots ] x 20 points is + 60 Therefor we have +60 - (- 50) = +10 when the range is at its highest any less more likely to bag more $$ If low fails - high fails then some might want to add 1 lot to shorten the distance until it plays out. If any one would like to add to this would[/highlight]...
You're making the same mistake most make - in that you are looking at the counter as a stop+reverse trade. It isn't.

The counter is there to stop the open loss from getting any bigger. That's it. It gives you breathing room.

You then run new, separate trades to unwind the locked-in floating loss (I won't get into the specifics of how you do this, suffice to say that Billy and I, though we may do it slightly differently, end up with the same result).
  • #47,872
  • Mar 26, 2020 10:33am Mar 26, 2020 10:33am
Another naked chart. Ain't she purty?!

Short at the red line, long at the blue.

GN H1 chart. Closed at +21.8

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  • #47,873
  • Mar 26, 2020 10:36am Mar 26, 2020 10:36am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} You're making the same mistake most make - in that you are looking at the counter as a stop+reverse trade. It isn't. The counter is there to stop the open loss from getting any bigger. That's it. It gives you breathing room. You then run new, separate trades to unwind the locked-in floating loss (I won't get into the specifics of how you do this, suffice to say that Billy and I, though we may do it slightly differently, end up with the same result).
better get quicker with the trigger finger Thanks Lem
  • #47,874
  • Mar 26, 2020 11:03am Mar 26, 2020 11:03am
Quoting RieseP
{quote} better get quicker with the trigger finger Thanks Lem
Not at all. Ask away.

What I would suggest is, stick ''unwind counter'' into the ''Search This Thread'' option at the top left corner of the page.

I have just done so out of curiosity and you will find everything you will ever need to understand what Billy and I do, as the posts listed include both questions from others and answers - including very detailed ones where we break down specific examples - from both Billy and I.

I can never remember the specific posts where I have answered these things and this is the best way to find them without a post number from me.
  • #47,875
  • Mar 26, 2020 12:14pm Mar 26, 2020 12:14pm
Quoting RieseP
Just my thoughts on countering. Feel free to stop me in my tracks. Lets say range is 30 Max First break aim for 10 [ 1 Lot ]- Fails We Stick a counter [ 3 Lots ] aim for 20 points That means we have a -50 [ Range + plus target of 20 ] Then we have [ 3 Lots ] x 20 points is + 60 Therefor we have +60 - (- 50) = +10 when the range is at its highest any less more likely to bag more $$ If low fails - high fails then some might want to add 1 lot to shorten the distance until it plays out. If any one would like to add to this would be much appreciated
Everyone has their own take on it but personally I think a counter at say any more than - 10 or - 15 becomes a lot harder to unwind. If I was trading a range of 30, I would probably use a stop and aim for 50-60+ at the other end. If you fail more than twice or three times in one day, it's whipsaw galore so perhaps leave it and try again tomorrow. As an example, have a look at the GU/GJ/Gold 8am or 9am 1 hour bars. If the break of one side doesn't do well, generally the other side will get you the adr. Ranges have been quite big as of late, so maybe lower your risk per pip. I would say this method still works 3-4 days a week. Have a look at previous charts and you will see what I mean.
  • #47,876
  • Mar 26, 2020 12:20pm Mar 26, 2020 12:20pm
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Everyone has their own take on it but personally I think a counter at say any more than - 10 or - 15 becomes a lot harder to unwind. If I was trading a range of 30, I would probably use a stop and aim for 50-60+ at the other end. If you fail more than twice or three times in one day, it's whipsaw galore so perhaps leave it and try again tomorrow. As an example, have a look at the GU/GJ/Gold 8am or 9am 1 hour bars. If the break of one side doesn't do well, generally the other side will get you the adr....
Yep, one of those posts quotes me as saying something along those lines. If a distance between entry #1 and the counter is too large, then all that will happen is that, should it fail, one will trigger, reverse and then sit in negative for ages, or both will trigger but neither will do anything more than bounce up and down between the two, often with neither in profit!
  • #47,877
  • Mar 26, 2020 12:23pm Mar 26, 2020 12:23pm
The UK time afternoon Dow
No need to mark the direction of trend :-)
Longs all the way
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #47,878
  • Mar 26, 2020 1:45pm Mar 26, 2020 1:45pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Yep, one of those posts quotes me as saying something along those lines. If a distance between entry #1 and the counter is too large, then all that will happen is that, should it fail, one will trigger, reverse and then sit in negative for ages, or both will trigger but neither will do anything more than bounce up and down between the two, often with neither in profit!
only issue with this is more often then not price does retrace back into the range and then it can break back out back into the range etc etc. Even with the fail to break the other end you have same situation. So your left with a lot of small negative trades. I understand you can get a trade that wipes out all the negatives and leave positive.

but how do you manage it all without it getting messy.
  • #47,879
  • Mar 26, 2020 2:07pm Mar 26, 2020 2:07pm
Quoting RieseP
{quote} only issue with this is more often then not price does retrace back into the range and then it can break back out back into the range etc etc. Even with the fail to break the other end you have same situation. So your left with a lot of small negative trades. I understand you can get a trade that wipes out all the negatives and leave positive. but how do you manage it all without it getting messy.
You need to stack the deck.

Billy does so by making use of his frequency distribution stats (which we then all take advantage of when we piggy-back his work by running The Billy Bar or AU H4 and EJ Daily etc).

For me, I look for a directional bias. Add in help from outside influences such as S+D, Camarillo, Weekly Open or Z-Lines, whatever, you can identify those trade options that are more likely to go the way you want it to and keep going.
  • #47,880
  • Mar 26, 2020 3:25pm Mar 26, 2020 3:25pm
I might try this depending if it works.

we get the break of the low it retraces we get the fail. I will not trade the low the very same day I will hold unless the high breaks. But say it doesn’t. Next day I will increase my lot size say 1.5 or 2 so that’s a lot and half or double original lot.

Im just trying to find a way of me becoming consistent with a blueprint that Should work over a period of time say the week as billy like to put it.
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