Forex is random | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Is it just me or is cable acting random? 49 replies

Proof That Forex is Random video 196 replies

Is random really random? 231 replies

Why do indicators not work/work? Why is Forex not truly random? 129 replies

MTS Vs Random Entry - A Paradox 6 replies

Attachments: Forex is random
Exit Attachments

Forex is random

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 24, 2020 1:02pm Mar 24, 2020 1:02pm
After using random numbers to generate charts, I was astonished at how similar it looked to forex. Has anyone done some testing on this?
When you see it, BET big.
  • #2
  • Mar 24, 2020 3:44pm Mar 24, 2020 3:44pm
Just look at the two images attached below. Looks exactly like the real charts.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20200324-164324_Chrome.jpg Size: 433 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20200324-164314_Chrome.jpg Size: 451 KB
When you see it, BET big.
  • #3
  • Mar 24, 2020 7:14pm Mar 24, 2020 7:14pm
Omg! It appears these charts trend even better than the real chart. Well if I can save time and money to most reading this. I will be doing a great disservice to the industry. Which I want. The only people make money in forex are the brokers and the market makers.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20200324-201223_Samsung Internet.jpg Size: 443 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20200324-201217_Samsung Internet.jpg Size: 445 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20200324-201209_Samsung Internet.jpg Size: 443 KB
When you see it, BET big.
  • #4
  • Mar 24, 2020 9:47pm Mar 24, 2020 9:47pm
Hi,
That's interesting and bold conclusions. To create such a graph, a random number algorithm with a given limit and conditions is used. But you forget that in the real chart there is the influence of fundamental news that happens with a certain probability, which depends on other circumstances that happen with a certain probability, ect.
In the real forex market, there are only facts and a statement of facts. Assumptions and probability calculations.
Thank you for sharing such interesting material.
#Anthonywins
  • #5
  • Mar 24, 2020 10:43pm Mar 24, 2020 10:43pm
The journey is long and challenging! I recognise your revelation from things I've considered. Keep going!

Attached Image


Attached Image
Why is a Raven like a Writing Desk?
  • #6
  • Mar 24, 2020 10:59pm Mar 24, 2020 10:59pm
Quoting AnthonyWins
Hi, That's interesting and bold conclusions. To create such a graph, a random number algorithm with a given limit and conditions is used. But you forget that in the real chart there is the influence of fundamental news that happens with a certain probability, which depends on other circumstances that happen with a certain probability, ect. In the real forex market, there are only facts and a statement of facts. Assumptions and probability calculations. Thank you for sharing such interesting material.
Yeah price is influenced by the news. But the news is unpredictable. I don't believe the market is 100% random, but the random charts made me understand how close to random it is. Quite close, I was soo surprised. I think it will be extraordinarily hard, if possible to extract an edge out of forex.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #7
  • Mar 24, 2020 11:01pm Mar 24, 2020 11:01pm
Quoting Rastus81
The journey is long and challenging! I recognise your revelation from things I've considered. Keep going! {image} {image}
Will keep mining the data, but I already have one foot out. Have started looking for some other activity to put my time in. Instead of working hard on something that is impossible.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #8
  • Mar 24, 2020 11:08pm Mar 24, 2020 11:08pm
Still looking at the random charts, trying to reverse engineer a strategy. Looking to find if I can observe a behavior which the real charts doesn't exhibit. The logic is, if I can't tell that a random chart is not a forex chart. Then how can I succeed? Just for the information, have been trading for 7 good years. I might well have wasted all these years in fruitless work. I have never been able to achieve any form of consistency. Well guess I have an explanation now!
When you see it, BET big.
  • #9
  • Mar 25, 2020 4:05am Mar 25, 2020 4:05am
You should create your own market and sell CFDs called USDRDM
  • #10
  • Mar 25, 2020 4:36am Mar 25, 2020 4:36am
Quoting Rennaissance
Just look at the two images attached below. Looks exactly like the real charts. {image} {image}
The only thing you have proven here is that even a random walk generates movement.
Random walk still generates a trend. Random walk still moves away from any reference line (eg. a moving average).

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post10342703

Now, if random walk generates trends, the conclusion is that these trends also DO exist in forex.
  • #11
  • Mar 25, 2020 5:10am Mar 25, 2020 5:10am
Quoting strbac
{quote} The only thing you have proven here is that even a random walk generates movement. Random walk still generates a trend. Random walk still moves away from any reference line (eg. a moving average). https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post10342703 Now, if random walk generates trends, the conclusion is that these trends also DO exist in forex.
But the problem is that trend direction can change at any point with equal probability. In other words, trends only exist in retrospective.
  • #12
  • Mar 25, 2020 6:55am Mar 25, 2020 6:55am
Quoting dkrock
You should probably quit now. It seems you have already decided, so it's over. Good Luck. As for my take on trading, I only make money on vertical movement, so I use a sample size that is large enough to show me when it occurs. In line with that, I also discovered a long time ago that my losses were mainly in consolidation zones, so I also used sample sizes to devise a way to project when the market was in consolidation. That technique helps me to focus on discovering the sweet spots, where price moves vertically. If you seriously think trading...
Do you have any explorer to back your claims?
When you see it, BET big.
  • #13
  • Mar 25, 2020 7:32am Mar 25, 2020 7:32am
Quoting Rennaissance
After using random numbers to generate charts, I was astonished at how similar it looked to forex. Has anyone done some testing on this?
This was a good question. In 1963.
  • #14
  • Mar 25, 2020 7:34am Mar 25, 2020 7:34am
Just making my argument clear. I dont believe the market is random 100%, but I believe it is close to random. Therefore making it very hard to identify non random behaviors.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #15
  • Mar 25, 2020 7:59am Mar 25, 2020 7:59am
what is random is the way the data its shown in chart, NOT the market in itself !!

learn the difference..
  • #16
  • Mar 25, 2020 8:04am Mar 25, 2020 8:04am
Quoting dkrock
You should probably quit now. It seems you have already decided, so it's over. Good Luck. As for my take on trading, I only make money on vertical movement, so I use a sample size that is large enough to show me when it occurs. In line with that, I also discovered a long time ago that my losses were mainly in consolidation zones, so I also used sample sizes to devise a way to project when the market was in consolidation. That technique helps me to focus on discovering the sweet spots, where price moves vertically. If you seriously think trading...
Sweet Spots & Consolidations = . Took me awhile to get these.
  • #17
  • Mar 25, 2020 8:56am Mar 25, 2020 8:56am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Yeah price is influenced by the news. But the news is unpredictable. I don't believe the market is 100% random, but the random charts made me understand how close to random it is. Quite close, I was soo surprised. I think it will be extraordinarily hard, if possible to extract an edge out of forex.
Many things created by artificial intelligence or through random patterns resemble the true. This happens because such a complex system as a market can be mistakenly perceived as a random system due to the huge number of influencing factors and participants.
#Anthonywins
  • #18
  • Mar 25, 2020 9:03am Mar 25, 2020 9:03am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} I think it will be extraordinarily hard
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} something that is impossible
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Therefore making it very hard
Very hard does not equal impossible. But you knew that right
Why is a Raven like a Writing Desk?
  • #19
  • Mar 25, 2020 9:10am Mar 25, 2020 9:10am
Quoting dkrock
You should probably quit now. It seems you have already decided, so it's over. Good Luck. That was the beginning of understanding sweet spots. So, if you want to go down this rabbit hole, I would say you have left the reservation and you should formally quit Forex. Choices, choices.
Nicely explained................without giving too much away.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Henry-Ford-quote-about-success.jpg Size: 86 KB
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #20
  • Mar 25, 2020 10:42am Mar 25, 2020 10:42am
Quoting dkrock
However, after about 3 weeks of contemplation, I realized my tests were skewed because they covered a 24-hour clock. Once I targeted the hours when a currency of the pair had open banks and open government, the consistency improved greatly. That was the beginning of understanding sweet spots. So, if you want to go down this rabbit hole, I would say you have left the reservation and you should formally quit Forex. Choices, choices.
I have posted so many future sweet spot examples on this forum.

Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Nicely explained................without giving too much away. {image}
If I post more examples ppl may reverse engineer.
Know what you trade
0 traders viewing now